Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Volo]

I suggest that you (and I too will) go through people, who concentrate on my vote more than needed. It's format isn't confusing, whoever makes a big deal about it might be trying to sidetrack the discussion.

Ok, bye.

[Thinlómien]

I really can't understand Volo. He votes in a manner that is very questionable - he himself could not have been sure if his vote counts at all and if it does, does it count for Ka or Gwath - and then claims it's a minor thing we shouldn't be concentrating on. I spent some time thinking about this in my art lesson and concluded that it seems very unprobable an innocent would be that careless of his vote - it is the only way of eliminating wolves. I mean, no innocent would take a joke or demonstration of his confusion as far as to risk his vote being legitimate or for the correct person.

Secondly, it occured to me that with no seer wolves dare to be more bold because there is no one whose special attention they don't wish to attract. Thus I would not be surprised at all by bold or eccentric wolf actions. Again the accusing finger points at Volo and his ununderstandable vote mess.

Now, I'm off to reread...

[Thinlómien]

Some observations:

The more I read Mac, the more innocent he seems. I said I didn't understand his suspicion of nogrod yesterday, but now it makes a bit more sense. He has a habit of predicting his own death and talking what the village has to do when he's dead so I can very well see him starting that as a wolf. I don't know, it's just a bit odd. Back to the topic of Mac, I think his latest post feels very innocent, but I'm not ready to trust him yet (not that I would trust anyone in this village but there some I'm not very troubled about). The fact that he is wolvishy defensive remains.

McCaber surely seems suspicious, but I'm a bit concerned about how wide-spread the suspicion of him is. I don't like the almost unanimous consensus against him. (I know I'm part of it as well and have been one of those who've suspected him the most. Nevertheless I think there's something wrong with this situation.) Yes, and there's something wrong with McCaber himself.

I confess. I have closed my eyes from Durelin's suspiciousness, because I didn't want her to be a wolf or to suspect her in general or most importantly, get her lynched early, because she's playing after such a long while and I like playing with her, but now I must admit there's something fishy about her. She's not my top suspect or anything like that, but she seems to play a bit too neatly, if you know what I mean. But still she seems quite honest at times and I think her voting yesterDay looks quite innocent... argh. She's a difficult one.

There is some hint of edginess or aggressiveness to Boro that is usually only found in Wolf88s. But I'm not actually getting "bad vibes" of him and there is nothing in particular to raise my alarms, in fact he seems pretty honest and innocent. It might be only that I haven't played with him for a while and I don't properly remember how he's like or that he hasn't played for a while and is only being accustomed to playing again. But on the other hand, those explanations sound a bit far-fetched as I don't think there really is a very long time at all when he last played. Anyway, what I wanted to say was - I guess - that he seems innocent but I have mild reservations about him that are based on his manner.

I know, Menel seems terribly suspicious from an objective perspective and has been so all the time but he always is, so I'm quite baffled. Yesterday I was inclined to believe he is a suspicious innocent, now I'm not so sure. Well, usually when he's a wolf he slips something or does something completely false-sounding. Maybe I'll refrain from judging him before he does that.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Secondly, I'm rather annoyed at myself at the moment. I just noticed that I have a tendency to automatically trust people who make long and fruitful(-looking) analyses of others. In this round, I find Rikae and Nerwen rather innocent.

I'm not sure I like this how she first questions her tendency and then happily claims she trusts Rikae and Nerwen, the analysers. Granted, she continues with questioning Rikae's judgement, but there's something odd here, I think. There is really little to go on about Greenie and I wish she'd post a lot toDay. (Even if the cost of it is that I must post less. )

Despite the rather fishy wolf-tactic musing I pointed out earlier toDay, THE Ka looks quite innocent. Her after-the-deadline post yesterDay looks very genuine and I have hard time picturing a wolf writing such things and in such manner.

Yes, that was some observations indeed.

~*~

A list

Innocentish
Nerwen

Slightly innocentish
Rikae
Boro
THE Ka

Neutral
Nogrod
Mac
A Little Green (ugh, she really slips under my radar)

Slightly suspicious-ish
Durelin
Menel

Suspicious-ish
McCaber
Mith

Suspicious
Volo

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, I don't have many real leads. I agree with Boro's sentiment that Mithalwen has been posting a lot but saying little. This is suspicious.

Then there's McCaber. Problem with him is that he tends to be suspicious wherever he goes. Yet, I can see what everyone sees in him. His constant suspicion of Gwath with little reason other than "He hasn't formed an opinion" puts me off. Why should anyone have formed a definite opinion that early on?

I doubt I'll be doing much on here later (big day, lots of work), so

++McCaber

[Mithalwen]

OK I don't have time as you know and noone was around when I did - why perhaps I posted lots and said little.

All I am going to say is as Phantom's most devoted disciple is:

I am not a wolf.

I have never been wrongly lynched but if you decide to change that record well you know what to do when you find that I have spoken the truth.

I will try to vote.

[Mithalwen]

By the way I nver said I was certain of Boro's innocence but I am an instinctive player and I felt it to be so... heigh ho....

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here. Off to read the posts, back soon.

[Nogrod]

I promised a few words on Volo so here comes.

- The vote-stuff: yesterDay's actual vote & how he has reacted to it toDay + the possible McCaber connection. Enough has been said I think this far (by me earlier and just a moment ago by Lommy & Rikae).

- There is something that doesn't quite sit right in his general "attitude" this time round. He's pretty quiet, well never been an actual flood-poster, but that's not it. The problem I have is when he constantly says he's rather going to listen to music or feels lazy etc. thus creating an impression he's not actually too enthusiastic about playing - so he's just an innocent villager with nothing to lose. Add to that the low posting that makes him slip under the radar of many of us and it starts to look like perfect wolf-tactics.

- After his remark on Boro, Boro attacked him back to which Volo retaliated with a couple of posts. So not too interested about the game but when suspected interested enough to counter-attack?


So I still think that McCaber and Volo might be in cahoots but am less positive about it I was in the end of yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Lommy

McCaber surely seems suspicious, but I'm a bit concerned about how wide-spread the suspicion of him is. I don't like the almost unanimous consensus against him. (I know I'm part of it as well and have been one of those who've suspected him the most. Nevertheless I think there's something wrong with this situation.) Yes, and there's something wrong with McCaber himself.

I'm agreeing with Lommy here although I'm not sure how unanimous this suspicion is in the end. But anyhow what I kind of find disturbing with him is that in almost all of his posts he has promised to be more substantial later. And what has happened? I'd sure like to se something from him and hopefully sooner than later.

I'm now going back to yesterDay once more to check at the Gwath-bandwagon and "let's not lynch Boro" -people. Hopefully there are other leads there as I'm not too convinced about Volo and McCaber - they're just the best I seem to have right now.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Volo

I suggest that you (and I too will) go through people, who concentrate on my vote more than needed. It's format isn't confusing, whoever makes a big deal about it might be trying to sidetrack the discussion.

Ok, bye.

Volo, no, the format isn't confusing, but the reasoning behind it is, and your explanation is not an explanation at all, insofar as, assuming you decided to vote for Gwath before hitting "post", there was no reason whatsoever to leave the Ka vote in. No reason, that is, except to make a bigger case that your vote was reluctant...?

And threatening people to keep them from looking at your vote is not an innocent looking thing to do (and draws more attention to you, not less!)

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Volo, no, the format isn't confusing, but the reasoning behind it is, and your explanation is not an explanation at all, insofar as, assuming you decided to vote for Gwath before hitting "post", there was no reason whatsoever to leave the Ka vote in. No reason, that is, except to make a bigger case that your vote was reluctant...?

And threatening people to keep them from looking at your vote is not an innocent looking thing to do (and draws more attention to you, not less!)

Ha! It is clear that I wanted more effect than what the vote on its own could have given and don't deny it. I was feeling that we were going into a wrong direction (you might remember how catastrofic the last game I played in was).
I'm not threatening anybody, although neither do I deny that it might not look like it. Just since I know I'm Innocent (and so on), I know that the Wolves could be eager to use a flaw like my vote as an easy excuse to get me lynched. So whoever jumps too eagerly to the conclution that I'm a Wolf might very well be a Wolf him/herself. Probably a newbie Wolf, though.
Think of Lommy's game, when everybody jumped at you because you played provocatively, that's what I mean. I was a Cobbler and was eager to vote for you.

Actually Nerwen is a great example of what I mean!
She doesn't actually mention anything new and her actions are what I'd expect a rather unexperienced Wolf to do:
An analysis about the Nightly victim, doesn't reveal anything.
Post #193, which doesn't actually tell much. All she says are quite general opinions, and she doesn't actually suspect anybody.
Then an easy vote for a possible (probable?) lynch candidate.
Played safely and smoothly.

(Oh dear, by now I've contradicted myself several times...)

Originally Posted by Ka

Good point. Mac, thank you, but that isn't the strongest point to make in arguing for my innocence or no. If I was a wolf arguing last night that killing Sally would be beneficial to diverting attention or just general confusion, I would agree, but I have more inclination to hit more to the point and save my own skin and any suspicion around me so that my fellow wolves would not loose anymore than they need to (as a wolf, you have to be oh so selfish for the greater good of wolfy kind.). Sally's attack was a good one, but I prefer an observation, wait for someone else to make the first move, then strike somewhere that is more generally to my benefit method, but not too obvious (like going after someone that has been hounding at you all Day... generally they are loud enough for other players to remember what they said.) so that it labels me or fellow wolves in the game the next Day.

Ka is mentioning her "observative method" already for more than the second time, I find it slightly suspicious.


Suspicious (more or less):
Nerwen
Boromir88
THE Ka

Innocent-ish:
Rikae
Mithalwen
McCaber

Can't figure, will have a look:
Nogrod
A Little Green

Nothing has caught my eye yet, will have a look:
Durelin
Macalaure
Meneltarmacil
Thinlómien


EDIT: Xd with all since my preveous post.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Lily

Some thoughts on Volo first. He looks bad. His vote was plain weird, and when put to question about it he gives a very vague explanation. The thing that worries me more is that when he comes back after that one, there have been several notions on how insufficient his explanation was, but he ignores them completely in his post. A possible interpretation: He realised his explanation was... well... leaky when people didn't buy it, and had the reaction I think is characteristic for wolves (or... ummm... me as a wolf? ); "if I say nothing about it, people will forget it, and I'm off from under the radar for a while." But... wait... isn't Volo too experienced a player to do that? But I can't think of another reason for his behaviour. I'd think an ordo would just want to explain himself properly and go on with business.

I don't think you're being fair.
WHAT do you want me to answer to?
I mean I don't have more reasons than I said I had.

I didn't feel comfortable about the voting, because I was afraid that we were concentrating on wrong people while letting too many fly over the radar.
I "voted" for Ka the way I did because I was completely sure that the vote for Gwath would count, and I wanted to emphasise that I feel wrong with the voting.
However I didn't have the gut to vote Ka or anybody else simply because I hadn't concentrated enough on them and wouldn't have the hope to lynch them anyway.
Gwath looked more suspicious than McCaber and I admit that I followed Boro's word.

As you might have noticed (by now) from my preveous post that I don't want people to forget my vote.

Ok, enough about that. I got quite frustrated, that's why the rant. I assure you that I have posted my reasons and not only now.

[Boromir88]

Here's my final input and my vote will be here then I will be gone...and most likely for good.

I'll be honest I'm completely lost on far as where to go. After Gwath was found to be innocent, and sally dies (the one person I said I felt most comfortable as far as her innocence), I definitely feel some set up. I think there is one, maybe two wolves trying to get me lynched (Rikae, Volo) and one, maybe two, who are defending me trying to get on my good side (Mith, Thinlo).

As far as the latter, Thinlo seems the more innocent and genuine than Mith. As Thinlo remarked, I know Mith quite well, but I got nothing else on her than saying I don't trust her support for me.

Now, Mac enters the equation, and for today I feel most comfortable about Lily who's eye regarding Mac's comment on McCaber went completely unnoticed by me and everyone else.

++Mac

I got nothing else, although I would caution to pay attention to Menel, he's slipped in once today (maybe twice) and I don't think he's been mentioned at all. It's really hard to build something against someone who doesn't (or maybe can't) post as much. But to let one slip through is completely dangerous. So, Menel, time to put some pressure on you...please share your thoughts? input?

[Macalaure]

Here's a quick defense. I'll be able to post more later.

To Lily, Lommy, and Rikae:

Originally Posted by me

Lommy gives the third vote for McCaber. A risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't.

This argument works for both, McCaber's guilt and innocence. If both were guilty, then Lommy was either taking a risk that the waggon would have succeeded, or she reckoned that it wouldn't, but would look risky enough to make one look good if the other got killed. In the case of Caber's innocence, it was risky because Lommy would have given a deciding vote to an innocent, or smart because it would look like she did while she was sure that she didn't.
I'm not claiming this idea was thought through well. I was actually quite confused about her vote. Anyway, I overlooked the crosspost, so this is rather redundant in regards to her.

To Nogrod

Mac's vote I don't get. The situation was over and everything was clear but still he says he would have rather voted for Lommy... So why did he vote for Gwath after saying himself he would like to give him at least one more Day?

I wasn't aware of the votes McCaber received, so I didn't knew there was this alternative. It didn't look like I could get any support for lynching Lommy, and among Gwath, Boro and... me!, Gwath looked at least most suspicious.

[A Little Green]

Now I know why my yellow zone was so empty. I had accidentally left out both Nog and Menel, who would probably belong there, both of them. So:

Yellow zone (slightly suspicious):
Menel
Nogrod - something just doesn't sit right with him..

Other than that, I have little to say. I'm still waiting for Mac to appear, to see in what kind of a manner he denies my theory. Of course we can't derive straight conclusions from his answer, but I hope it will be of help.

Sorry folks - I'm a bit obsessed right now with this affair. Can't help it.


EDIT: x-ed with Mac *ahem*

[Thinlómien]

As far as the Boro seems innocent -thing goes, I think there was some confusion afoot. Let's take me for an example. I knew the vote count, but I was slightly confused about how many people really suspected Boro or wanted to lynch him. And whatever you say, he was one of the lynch candidates and so I felt necessary to state the fact that I don't want to vote him. Now, I don't know, but I could see many people thinking the same way I did so *gasp* I don't see anything that suspicious about the "Boro is innocent"-case you and some others are so enthusiastically examining. I mean, you may go on and do some research on it but I doubt it will bear fruit. It's a bit similar as analysing sally's posts in order to find out why she was killed: it might be useful but more probably isn't.

Volo's odd. I mean, he looks so foul it hurts. Only a tiny bit of the things he says looks even a tiny bit innocent. In the last two posts, I think he made hardly any sense at all. It seems weird he has so little opinion on a bunch of very all-over-the-place people (me, Mac and Menel) who have been debated a lot. It is especially weird as he states that nothing in us has caught his attention yet. I mean... what? How can someone have avoided forming an opinion on the three of us?

Yet there is something very innocentishly sincere in his frustrated tone too... argh. This game is doing no good to my nerves. It is so annoying: first, I learned not to trust my wits in ww, lately I've learned not ot trust my gut feelings either and now I'm completely paranoid about everything all the time.

I'm still a bit confused on this Mac-thingie... I'll comment it when I've formed my opinion.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'm going to ignore the tempation to go off on a huge rant right now.

Actually, I would like you to go on and do so. So please do it if you feel like it at all anymore, I'm sure it would be interesting.

[Nogrod]

I need to make some late dinner but I just saw this as I got home and thought it needed commenting.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Actually, I would like you to go on and do so. So please do it if you feel like it at all anymore, I'm sure it would be interesting.

Agreed! I mean everytime you post you promise to write something and then you don't. That way you stay under the radar as no one thinks it "nice" to lynch you as you have not said so much. Looking at your last performances I'm getting a growing sense that's the way you play intentionally - and with success.

So please McCaber at last do what you have promised all the time and talk - or convince me that that's only your tactics to make boots of us at Nights with not talking your mouth.

I'll be back a bit later.

[Rikae]

Mith looks a little better to me now. It would, at least, be very unsporting for her to make the statements she did if she were a wolf -- not that I'm certain she isn't, but I suppose I'll leave her alone for toDay anyway.

Both Boro and Nogrod suddenly find me suspicious after I suspect them... Boro, especially, seems odd with his statement there is a wolf or two among each of two groups of two people, followed by a vote for someone in neither group! Like yesterday, I'm getting the impression that he doesn't particularly care who gets lynched.
Nogrod, plain and simple and like I said, I didn't suspect anyone else as much and there was no support for lynching my other suspects anyway. I don't see the point in making a big show of reluctance (actually, I tend to distrust such shows.)
Speaking of shows of reluctance, though, I don't think Volo's was actually wolfish. I think it's actually the sort of wackiness that wolves are more likely to seize upon, trying to make an ordo into a lynch victim, than to actually engage in themselves. The fact that he admits it was a show of reluctance, plus the general relaxed feel he has, make him look more innocent.

At this point, my top suspects (in order of wolfyness) are:
Boro
Greenie
Nogrod
Durelin

EDIT: X'd with Durydurykanoggielommy

[Rikae]

Correction: I didn't actually have the impression Boro didn't care who was lynched yesterDay, but rather upon analyzing yesterDay's voting toDay.

[Durelin]

Hmm...Mac is still posting defenses of himself and Boro is convinced the wolves are setting him up, messing with his mind. Yes, both have gotten quite a bit of attention, but they seem to be harping on it a bit...but I don't know if that's particularly wolfish or not. Overly defensive? Maybe. Trying too much to look like they're shrugging it off? Maybe.

I don't know what Mith's doing but I don't think she's a wolf. She seems so very careless, as does McCaber. As does Volo. I guess I'm making the assumption that wolves are not overtly careless, and I guess really that could be a tactic as well.

Of course Mith's pulling a phantom-Sally. What I'm starting to feel like is that this is just going to turn into everyone promising they're not wolves and kissing and making up...

I am bothered by A Little Green because she seems so neat with her suspicions. She tries to be as focused as possible on one or two people to the point that to me it seems almost contrived.

On the other hand, I have similar bad feelings about Mac, and she brings up good points about him. Though I agree with Rikae that her interpretation of

Originally Posted by Mac

"Lommy gives the third vote for McCaber. A risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't."

was a bit off, as it can go either way - as Mac explains was his reasoning in his last post.

He is a little defensive, but not wanting to die isn't necessarily a sinister desire. And he's not he only one into himself.

Volo is confusing the heck out of me. I've never seen such long posts out of him!

Both Menel and McCab are barely here, and when they are, they seem rather in their own little worlds. I don't really know what to do with them.

Nerwen's no vote yesterDay hasn't been of any question... Her vote for Volo toDay seems rather safe, as does Menel's vote for McCab. Both of them don't seem to have much time for the game, which sucks for trying to get much on them. Bleh.

Lommy, Nogrod, Rikae...they all give me creepy feelings but I really have no clue. Though the beginning of Lommy's last post bothers me. She seems to be freaking a little. I understand frustration; I mean, I'm rather frustrated with the promises of innocence and the like (are you trying to appeal to people's compassion? cause you won't get that from me.. ), but my dear, regardless of if Boro was in danger or not it still seems odd to be so afraid to lose him. In a gifteds game we could leave it to suspecting giftedness (but then being so open about that would be really...not smart), but obviously we can't do it. But I agree that a great amount of energy shouldn't be put into investigating the *everybody loves Boro* theory.

I do wonder though what Lommy meant by this earlier:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Ok Rikae is probably innocent, or then she is a wolf putting a lot of effort to seeming so.

Eh?

I am not talking about anyone else in this post because it is already way too long. *sigh* This WW thing has been good for one thing, anyway - avoiding homework doing...

[Durelin]

Ah, I just realized - my "similar bad feelings about Mac" statement means that I have similar bad feelings about Mac as A Little Green does, not about Little Green...make sense? Maybe? Oh well.

[Nerwen]

Well, I'm back. This is just letting you all know that I will be voting shortly, because I can't guarantee being around near the deadline, and I'm in danger of getting modfired.

Some thoughts on people:


Rikae, Lommy and Mac seem okay to me, as of the time of posting.

The Ka– does she always ramble this much? That latest post of hers (#178) literally gave me a headache. The gist of it seems to be that that although Sally was under some suspicion, she was really the safest kill because her death didn’t point to anyone. So far, well and good– but then it turns into a rather creepy description of her preferred wolfing tactics... I don’t know what to make of her.

Durelin likewise.

Menel seems to have fallen off the radar, and after yesterDay I think he should be on it.

I’ll second (or third) the opinion that Boro and Nogrod seem slippery– and both of them certainly played a part in getting Gwath killed. However, I never like to vote people without more to go on. Also Boro's suspicions of Mithalwen today strike me as quite genuine.

Leading me to–

Mith– her reasons for voting Gwath look rather bad. Half of her posts toDay sound vaguely sinister, the other half just vague. (Btw, what is the count now of people using the “If I were a wolf I’d do X, and I’m doing Y, so I can’t be a wolf” argument?)

McCaber– Another slippery one, another one who helped start the Gwath bandwagon, another one who voted in an “I’m not really doing this” kind of way. The combination of all three looks nasty.

Volo. Gave a weird vote, giving a strong impression that he didn’t care who got lynched, and was perhaps trying to vote “informal”. ToDay (#184) he gives an “explanation” that doesn’t help at all, followed by this:

Originally Posted by Volo

I suggest that you (and I too will) go through people, who concentrate on my vote more than needed. It's format isn't confusing, whoever makes a big deal about it might be trying to sidetrack the discussion.

I mean– WHAT?

EDIT: typo.

[Nerwen]

Well, then–

++Volo.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod.

[Rikae]

Just a comment on Nerwen's "I never like to vote people without more to go on" --
in my experience, wolves are most often caught (without a seer) because their general tone seems off, people have a bad feeling about them, they "seem fair and feel foul", etc. They rarely slip up in blatent ways -- after all, they have reason to play more carefully than ordos -- and tend to survive by subtly keeping attention on the people who do behave strangely or erratically.

Although I don't like lynching strong players early on, I think we need to seriously consider the possibility that one of the really "big" players -- Boro and Nogrod, that is -- is a wolf. Neither of them would slip up in any obvious way if he were, so, in their cases at least, we'll have to judge based on more subtle "vibrations".

EDIT: X'd with Greenie

[Nogrod]

There had been voices saying we shouldn't lynch Boro on Day1 (including my own when I said I wouldn't like to see Boro, Rikae or Mith go on Day1). When the actual voting began there were then these:

Originally Posted by McCab -10 min.

Boro seems to know what he's doing, and he raises good points. I would prefer it was not him lynched today.

Boro leading the tally with 2 against one at that time. That indeed takes McCaber apart from the rest in a way as he referred by name only to those two who had garnered votes so far (Boro and Gwath).

Originally Posted by Volo -7

Boro might be a Wolf, but I'm reluctant to voting him.

Boro 2 - Gwath 2 at that time. Volo also only referred to players who had garnered votes or talked about as possible options - and it was 2-2. Although no one had kind of voiced a desire to vote for Boro either at that time.

Originally Posted by Mith -4

I don't want Boro lynched.

Putting Gwath to 4 votes against Boro's 2. Quite unnecessary I'd say eg. overdoing it?

Originally Posted by Mac -3

I would really not like to see Boro go.

Gwath 4 - Boro 2. Now why?

Originally Posted by Lommy -2

it all feels wrong but voting Boro would feel even more so... *sigh*

It was already Gwath 5 - Boro 2. Looks like overdoing it...

Originally Posted by Mith -2

Maybe I should have gone for Mac but I feel more strongly about Boro's innocence than anyone's guilt....

Still Gwath 5 - Boro 2.

So looking at who tried to look nice justifying one's vote also with not wishing to vote for Boro this would make Mith, Lommy and Mac look the most suspicious with possibly Volo trailing behind.

McCaber is an interesting case here as it looks like he chooses between the ones who have garnered votes that far in a hurry. Now is this deliberate tactics - and why to vote for someone who has already gotten votes if the votes given are only three from fifteen when he begins his consideration? A wolfsy way of looking at things?

EDIT: X'd from Greenie onwards...

[Nogrod]

(early votes)
Sally -> Boro
Gwath -> Boro 2

(-46) Menel -> Mac (Boro 2, Mac 1)
(-27) Boro -> Gwath (Boro 2, Mac 1, Gwath 1)

(-9) Greenie -> Gwath (Boro 2, Gwath 2, Mac 1)

(-6) Rikae -> Gwath (Gwath 3, Boro 2, Mac 1)

(-4) Mith -> Gwath (Gwath 4, Boro 2, Mac 1)

(-3) McCaber -> Gwath (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1)

(-2) Dury -> McCaber (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 1)
(-2) Nogrod -> McCaber (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 2)
(-2) Volo -> Ka (trying to retract to Gwath) (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 2, The Ka 1)

(-1) Lommy -> McCaber (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 3, The Ka 1)

(00) Mac -> Gwath (Gwath 6, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 3, The Ka 1)

+ on overtime
The Ka -> McCaber

Did not vote: Nerwen


First notice: everyone who voted for Gwath was voting safe in a way that he had been suspected widely from quite early on the Day so anyone could just refer to that general suspiciousness of him.

Looking at the wagon I'd say Boro's starting vote was pretty safe as there had been a lot of discussion and suspicion on Gwath already at that point.

Greenie's vote doesn't look too good because she had first defended him lightly earlier into the Day but then turned around and only referred to suspicons others had made when she needed to vote.

Rikae agreed that he might be a bit too easy pick but still went for him stating that she sticks with her top suspect. What makes me uneasy about this is the logical and calculated feel I get from it. Innocents are unsure and insecure about their votes as it's bad for them if they get it wrong but the wolves can be cool and principled when they know everything is going their way...

Mith could already be quite sure Gwath was a goner - so was that the reason why she had to underline the "let's not lynch Boro" -thing so much as she actually had no specific reason to vote for Gwath but didn't want to look like someone who votes randomly at anyone who's not a fellow wolf? She even made that Boro remark one extra time after she had already voted...

McCaber I can see as voting to save himself... even if he denied that toDay which kind of makes me totally confused about him.

Mac's vote I don't get. The situation was over and everything was clear but still he says he would have rather voted for Lommy... So why did he vote for Gwath after saying himself he would like to give him at least one more Day?


It was such a nice wagon - seven people eg. about half of the Bombadil's house in the same wagon while many people said it wasn't looking like a good idea. Something fishy and a very good place for a wolf to hide in. The question remains who is it / are they? I need to give it a thought - and to finally turn towards toDay.

EDIT: X'd with a lot...

[Boromir88]

Boro does indeed look bad. He played a major role in building suspicion towards Gwath but did not start it, and fished around for support before voting.~Rikae

I did not fish around for support before voting...that's a disturbing misrepresentation. Look at all the times and the mass of cross-posting. I jumped on something that looked like an evil wolf vote. I asked Nogrod for his thoughts so I could get him to say something about Gwath or Volo two people he hadn't said much (if anything about) and see if I could get any information about Nogrod that way.

Although you could argue that since Gwath was one likely to get lynched yesterday, he'd be easy pickings for a wolf. But my vote came before I could "fish" for support...My vote for Gwath came before Nogrod posted his thoughts on Gwath, because as I said I was interested in getting information about Nogrod.

What I find interesting too is the one's who started out suspecting Gwath, and getting supsicion against him, once it seems like he's going to be lynched than those people distance themselves by saying "Oh he looks too wolvish to be a wolf," but secretly they are smiling because their goal has been accomplished. They got their lynch victim and then they back off a little bit. The "people" who would fall under this are:

Rikae and Volo, who both remarked Gwath seems "too easy" and particularly Rikae was first to start suspicion against Gwath.

Mith's "certainty" of Boro's innocence and Boro's mistrust of Mith look very odd

Interesting how as Mith points out words can easily be changed and twisted to benefit someone's purposes:

By the way I nver said I was certain of Boro's innocence but I am an instinctive player and I felt it to be so... heigh ho....

Rikae and Mith you can say are my main suspects.

I know I've been edgy, wierd, and all out awkward. And I know it looks bad, but there is a RL reason for it, which I will be sure to explain before the day is over. I have to vote soon, I won't be around for a while, don't discuss about this last little bit I'm adding. Let's focus on getting a wolf and I promise I'll explain it all at the proper time.

[A Little Green]

Argh. Now I really am confused.

I wonder why has no one paid any heed to this little quote?

Originally Posted by Mac

Lommy gives the third vote for McCaber. A risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't.

That sounds like he knows Cabbie is a wolf. I mean, WHAT?

I tried to find out something by looking at Mac's statements on Cabbie. In the same post as the strange quote above, he says,

Originally Posted by Mac

McCaber's vote looks not too good. Not so much because of who he voted for and at what time, but because of his reasoning.

Doesn't look like he's certain about Cabbie's guilt at the time. He suspects him, of course, but I'd say not enough to write on the assumption that he is a wolf. Later on, he says,

Originally Posted by Mac

McCaber.... he seems too easy a choice to me, at least at the moment.

Can't decipher that one.

In addition to the Mac-Cabbie-mess, Lommy actually quoted this same specific passage in her post, and apparently noticed nothing weird in it. Deliberate? She quoted Mac's paragraph and commented it:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Even if I was a wolf, it wouldn't have been either risky or smart: I cross-posted with Durelin and Nogrod, as I - quite clearly, I think - marked.

She, too, looks like she knows Cabbie is a wolf, or at least assumes it. (On second thought, one could suppose she assumes him guilty after she voted for him... ) I'm not so sure of how she fits in this picture.

What is to be concluded? Could the pack be Mac, Lommy, and Cabbie, or is that too far-fetched? The way Mac just sort of slips it makes me guess he knows Cabbie is a wolf, and because there are no gifteds, the only ones who know everyone's role are the wolves. I'm not sure whether or not I can draw conclusions on Lommy based on this find.

I don't know what to make of this conspiracy theory. I must say it makes both Mac and Cabbie look suspicious. Of Lommy I'm not so sure.

Thoughts?


EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Nerwen and Boro

[Thinlómien]

Now Greenie, that is interesting, but I thought - and still think, although you made me reconsider a little - that by saying it was a risky vote for a wolf Mac meant that had the Caber-wagon succeeded my vote would have been analysed a lot and I would have been blamed for it and a wolf would like to avoid such attention.

But yes actually I'm not even sure if that really makes a lot of sense. To be honest I'm quite baffled and I can hear little wheels turning in my head.

Mac's quote... if it implies that Mac knows what McCab is it could also mean that he knows McCab is an innocent: giving him the nailing vote would be a situation a wolf would like to avoid.

But there is something really odd in here and I'm quite baffled.

I request Mac to come here and explain this mess. But I'm just afraid that be he innocent or not he manages to create an explanation that I believe and makes me feel stupid for agreeing even a little with Greenie's theory...

And now I reread the quote and it seemed just as normal as I first thought it seems. Argh. I need to think about this more, in fact I don't even understand why am I writing my thought process here instead of thinking first and writing then... possibly because it would be against my deepest nature... Anyway, I'm going away now for a while but I'll be back eventually/soon-ish.

edit: xed with Rikae

[Rikae]

Here I go, defending Mac again...

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Argh. Now I really am confused.

Originally Posted by Mac
"Lommy gives the third vote for McCaber. A risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't."

I wonder why has no one paid any heed to this little quote? That sounds like he knows Cabbie is a wolf. I mean, WHAT?

It doesn't look like that at all! I don't know how you could see it that way -- it seems quite clear to me that Mac is referring to the (well known) fact that wolves would prefer, in general, not to draw attention to themselves by casting the deciding vote. Regardless of the role of the person lynched -- if McCaber and Lommy were wolves together, she wouldn't actually want him lynched on day one, but going after him might make her look better if he's lynched later on -- if he's innocent and she's a wolf, she wouldn't want to be responsible for lynching an ordo and come under scrutiny -- and thus, would probably prefer to vote for Cab but see Gwath lynched.

Makes perfect sense to me -- now, what do I make of Greenie's theory? It's either an honest misunderstanding or a wolfish attempt to get the suspicion moving in a direction more agreeable to her (which probably means, if Greenie's a wolf, at least one other wolf is attracting suspicion toDay.)

[Rikae]

OK, on further reflection, it may be slightly more likely it was a wolf-slip on Mac's part (along the lines of knowing Cab is innocent, I think), than what I said above... the reason being, if Mac meant what I said above, I think he might have explained more thoroughly. Maybe not, though. I have to go to class now, see you in a couple hours...

[McCaber]

I'm going to ignore the tempation to go off on a huge rant right now.

Boro I'm split on. Sometimes he looks extremely suspicious, other times merely wise.

Originally Posted by Mac

This argument works for both, McCaber's guilt and innocence.

I was about to bring that up myself. Thank you.

As I have class very soon, I will return with some actual thought.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Volo

It's format isn't confusing, whoever makes a big deal about it might be trying to sidetrack the discussion.

Maybe they'd just would like a less strained explanation.

Originally Posted by Volo

As you might have noticed (by now) from my preveous post that I don't want people to forget my vote.

It was kindof hard not to forget or understand, despite all of the explanation.
I can understand the logic behind that, making sure that people don't fly over your vote and completely spew out nonesense, but usually if you are going to do that you'd explain the second day, make a link to the vote, and then allow others to interpret. If your vote was left in a single vote stage, there wouldn't be anything there that was either highly suspicious or confusing, thus with your explanation the next day it would be rather hard for others to list you as suspicious immediately.

That is the only reason why your vote confused me at first, because if you were trying to retract a vote, it would make more sense to simply post your second vote without the trail of thought. Anyways, now that its cleared up, I am still a bit suspicious, but I can understand some of the logic behind making sure your vote was read clearly.
Albeit very, very confusing and abrupt.

I'm wanting to believe that Volo was flustered, but as for experience it is becoming harder to swallow.

Originally Posted by Volo

but mentioning so that he/she hears it isn't very useful. I'd like more of your, Ka, thoughts on this.

Just like an experiment, I was trying to study the reaction. I know that if I say something, it obviously is out in the open and wolves probably won't do it. I wasn't as much interested in what Gwath would do, but what his fellow wolves would do. Talking about Gwath was purely a distraction and supposed to be banter.
Though, since Gwath was innocent, I am having to re-look at who I suspected before and reform any thought.


Unfortunately, I really have to go now, and would like to explain more but, I'll be late for my classes if I stay any longer. I should be back early enough to vote, though as of now I am horribly confused, hopefully thinking over all of this will clear my mind.


~ Ka

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Ka

I'm unsure about voting for Gwath just yet, something tells me that if we turn him into a fenris we might be cutting off any chance of catching other wolves, considering Gwath's pattern of 'agree' then 'disagree', and then going under the radar at times in relation to defending others.

Sorry, Ka, but I can't agree with you. Yes, one might learn more by leaving a newbie Wolf alive to have him/her make more mistakes, but mentioning so that he/she hears it isn't very useful. I'd like more of your, Ka, thoughts on this.

Originally Posted by Ka

McCabbie (see? I can remember now it's not late... Sorry again Mac ), I really wish would give more reasoning and overall opinion on what others are saying about him, or at least some standing as for position. He is acting very, very different than from last time when he was an ordinary. As for suspicion he is rising on my list, but I am hesitant to vote immediately and brashly. I guess being quite from now on would cause him to loose his skin.

Has McCaber actually ever been Innocent? I think he started out in my game, where he was a Cobbler and after that played only in Farael's game where he, looking from what has been said now, a Wolf.

I can't say that either Ka is a Wolf or was confused, because she clearly was confused posting after the deadline. Other than that she talks a bit too much about Gwath, who was already on the way to the gallows by the time - which is odd. And if McCaber hasn't been Innocent, then her reasons for voting him are also invalid.

Originally Posted by Mac

Sally’s death probably has the main goal to leave no track. I guess this is a good strategy in a giftless village. Nevertheless, it points towards careful wolves. Are they careful because it’s their nature, because they’ve been under strong suspicion already, or because it’s a cold-blooded strategy?
What I don't understand is: Why pick a no-trailer who causes confusion when other, less confusing, no-trailers are there to choose from. Maybe they thought her death would cause sufficient confusion, more than anybody else's death.

Both Boro voters are dead now. Does this point towards him being a wolf? I don’t think so. Sally went by gut when she voted him, so she would likely have changed her mind today. Boro was very sure about Sally’s innocence yesterDay and I’m not sure what to make of that.

Probably. Sally's death points at loud Wolves too, because it puts more pressure on the remaining quiet players. I hope you know what I mean.
I have a feeling that Boro is bluffing a great big deal right now. Sally's death, among other things points also at Boro, but I wouln't put it past him to "frame himself".

Originally Posted by Mith

If she had been killed instead of Sally we would have perhaps looked at her posts and found a clue.

To me, this looks suspicious. Or at the very least, I don't agree. Like Rikae later says, little can be found from the posts of Nightly targets. Especially in a game like this, the Wolves are free to kill anybody they want without the fear of being blocked by a Ranger and have no need to seek for a Seer in our posts. And only a Seer's posts truly need to be gone through to give any valid information. Not that one shouldn't read to what the dead have said, you know, they might be right about the Wolves too.


I have the same fault as Boro admits himself having, it seems. I feel more and more certain that he's up to no good. His whole post #171 screams Wolf. To me, Mith is like she always is. Otherwise his arguments are weak.

Do you feel so "strongly" that you know I'm innocent?

As pointed out Agan is not a viable option...but are you simply "guessing" sally went because of such and such...or do you know for a fact?

Everybody says things like that! I would even venture to say that Wolves say them less that others, because they bring an air of suspicion.

Originally Posted by Noggie

What I mean is that he should not be underestimated because he wears a newbie-mask for a mask it is I must say: he was just superb in his first games. I'm not sure if this is enough to lynch him but if he's a submarine-wolf we can't but blame ourselves in the end. In the last two games people fell for it.

I might be doing wrong in defending McCaber, but this kind of explanation doesn't look too valid to me. I feel like newbie myself, although this is already my 12th game if Lommy's Grimoire post is to be trusted. I say self-conscious things about not playing well enough myself - you might have noticed - and truly mean them. It looks stupid and useless, but I can't help it.
I can't say that I completely trust McCaber, either.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, there we go. My top two suspects were innocent -- don't listen to me.

This makes me feel better about Rikae, although she really is such a crafty player that I shouldn't trust.


I've read through the the thread until Rikae's post I mention, I'll do the rest right now.

[A Little Green]

About the Mac thingy. Rikae and Lommy, well I hadn't really looked at it from that viewpoint at all. Might be, but if he really meant that I think he would have explained more if you know what I mean. So I'm still somewhat wary about Mac. However, up until he reappears and sheds some light on my little (green) conspiracy theory (sorry mates... couldn't resist ), I might as well look at the other players as well. (I mean, others than Mac or Cabbie.)

Some thoughts on Volo first. He looks bad. His vote was plain weird, and when put to question about it he gives a very vague explanation. The thing that worries me more is that when he comes back after that one, there have been several notions on how insufficient his explanation was, but he ignores them completely in his post. A possible interpretation: He realised his explanation was... well... leaky when people didn't buy it, and had the reaction I think is characteristic for wolves (or... ummm... me as a wolf? ); "if I say nothing about it, people will forget it, and I'm off from under the radar for a while." But... wait... isn't Volo too experienced a player to do that? But I can't think of another reason for his behaviour. I'd think an ordo would just want to explain himself properly and go on with business.

I might as well make a list. So:

Green zone (innocentish):
Nerwen
THE Ka
Same goes for both - just some weird "good vibes" I suppose.

Yellowish green zone (leaning innocentish):
Rikae
Lommy
Mith
Boro

Yellow zone (slightly suspicious):
...
No people on the yellow zone? Curious. Last time it was the red one that was empty. Just wondering where this leads, maybe next time the green one is empty...

Red zone (suspicious):
Volo
McCaber
Macalaure at least until he answers me.

No zone whatsoever (cannot say):
Durelin - just cannot read her at all.



EDIT: x-ed with Rikae