Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[A Little Green]

Argh. Now I really am confused.

I wonder why has no one paid any heed to this little quote?

Originally Posted by Mac

Lommy gives the third vote for McCaber. A risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't.

That sounds like he knows Cabbie is a wolf. I mean, WHAT?

I tried to find out something by looking at Mac's statements on Cabbie. In the same post as the strange quote above, he says,

Originally Posted by Mac

McCaber's vote looks not too good. Not so much because of who he voted for and at what time, but because of his reasoning.

Doesn't look like he's certain about Cabbie's guilt at the time. He suspects him, of course, but I'd say not enough to write on the assumption that he is a wolf. Later on, he says,

Originally Posted by Mac

McCaber.... he seems too easy a choice to me, at least at the moment.

Can't decipher that one.

In addition to the Mac-Cabbie-mess, Lommy actually quoted this same specific passage in her post, and apparently noticed nothing weird in it. Deliberate? She quoted Mac's paragraph and commented it:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Even if I was a wolf, it wouldn't have been either risky or smart: I cross-posted with Durelin and Nogrod, as I - quite clearly, I think - marked.

She, too, looks like she knows Cabbie is a wolf, or at least assumes it. (On second thought, one could suppose she assumes him guilty after she voted for him... ) I'm not so sure of how she fits in this picture.

What is to be concluded? Could the pack be Mac, Lommy, and Cabbie, or is that too far-fetched? The way Mac just sort of slips it makes me guess he knows Cabbie is a wolf, and because there are no gifteds, the only ones who know everyone's role are the wolves. I'm not sure whether or not I can draw conclusions on Lommy based on this find.

I don't know what to make of this conspiracy theory. I must say it makes both Mac and Cabbie look suspicious. Of Lommy I'm not so sure.

Thoughts?


EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Nerwen and Boro

[Thinlómien]

Now Greenie, that is interesting, but I thought - and still think, although you made me reconsider a little - that by saying it was a risky vote for a wolf Mac meant that had the Caber-wagon succeeded my vote would have been analysed a lot and I would have been blamed for it and a wolf would like to avoid such attention.

But yes actually I'm not even sure if that really makes a lot of sense. To be honest I'm quite baffled and I can hear little wheels turning in my head.

Mac's quote... if it implies that Mac knows what McCab is it could also mean that he knows McCab is an innocent: giving him the nailing vote would be a situation a wolf would like to avoid.

But there is something really odd in here and I'm quite baffled.

I request Mac to come here and explain this mess. But I'm just afraid that be he innocent or not he manages to create an explanation that I believe and makes me feel stupid for agreeing even a little with Greenie's theory...

And now I reread the quote and it seemed just as normal as I first thought it seems. Argh. I need to think about this more, in fact I don't even understand why am I writing my thought process here instead of thinking first and writing then... possibly because it would be against my deepest nature... Anyway, I'm going away now for a while but I'll be back eventually/soon-ish.

edit: xed with Rikae

[Rikae]

Here I go, defending Mac again...

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Argh. Now I really am confused.

Originally Posted by Mac
"Lommy gives the third vote for McCaber. A risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't."

I wonder why has no one paid any heed to this little quote? That sounds like he knows Cabbie is a wolf. I mean, WHAT?

It doesn't look like that at all! I don't know how you could see it that way -- it seems quite clear to me that Mac is referring to the (well known) fact that wolves would prefer, in general, not to draw attention to themselves by casting the deciding vote. Regardless of the role of the person lynched -- if McCaber and Lommy were wolves together, she wouldn't actually want him lynched on day one, but going after him might make her look better if he's lynched later on -- if he's innocent and she's a wolf, she wouldn't want to be responsible for lynching an ordo and come under scrutiny -- and thus, would probably prefer to vote for Cab but see Gwath lynched.

Makes perfect sense to me -- now, what do I make of Greenie's theory? It's either an honest misunderstanding or a wolfish attempt to get the suspicion moving in a direction more agreeable to her (which probably means, if Greenie's a wolf, at least one other wolf is attracting suspicion toDay.)

[Rikae]

OK, on further reflection, it may be slightly more likely it was a wolf-slip on Mac's part (along the lines of knowing Cab is innocent, I think), than what I said above... the reason being, if Mac meant what I said above, I think he might have explained more thoroughly. Maybe not, though. I have to go to class now, see you in a couple hours...

[McCaber]

I'm going to ignore the tempation to go off on a huge rant right now.

Boro I'm split on. Sometimes he looks extremely suspicious, other times merely wise.

Originally Posted by Mac

This argument works for both, McCaber's guilt and innocence.

I was about to bring that up myself. Thank you.

As I have class very soon, I will return with some actual thought.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Volo

It's format isn't confusing, whoever makes a big deal about it might be trying to sidetrack the discussion.

Maybe they'd just would like a less strained explanation.

Originally Posted by Volo

As you might have noticed (by now) from my preveous post that I don't want people to forget my vote.

It was kindof hard not to forget or understand, despite all of the explanation.
I can understand the logic behind that, making sure that people don't fly over your vote and completely spew out nonesense, but usually if you are going to do that you'd explain the second day, make a link to the vote, and then allow others to interpret. If your vote was left in a single vote stage, there wouldn't be anything there that was either highly suspicious or confusing, thus with your explanation the next day it would be rather hard for others to list you as suspicious immediately.

That is the only reason why your vote confused me at first, because if you were trying to retract a vote, it would make more sense to simply post your second vote without the trail of thought. Anyways, now that its cleared up, I am still a bit suspicious, but I can understand some of the logic behind making sure your vote was read clearly.
Albeit very, very confusing and abrupt.

I'm wanting to believe that Volo was flustered, but as for experience it is becoming harder to swallow.

Originally Posted by Volo

but mentioning so that he/she hears it isn't very useful. I'd like more of your, Ka, thoughts on this.

Just like an experiment, I was trying to study the reaction. I know that if I say something, it obviously is out in the open and wolves probably won't do it. I wasn't as much interested in what Gwath would do, but what his fellow wolves would do. Talking about Gwath was purely a distraction and supposed to be banter.
Though, since Gwath was innocent, I am having to re-look at who I suspected before and reform any thought.


Unfortunately, I really have to go now, and would like to explain more but, I'll be late for my classes if I stay any longer. I should be back early enough to vote, though as of now I am horribly confused, hopefully thinking over all of this will clear my mind.


~ Ka

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Of course Mith's pulling a phantom-Sally. What I'm starting to feel like is that this is just going to turn into everyone promising they're not wolves and kissing and making up...

Good that you said that because it reminds me of what I wanted to say. I suspect Mith less ebcause she claimed so vocally that she's innocent. I mean, as a wolf, I would never do such a proclamation of innocence. I could say I'm innocent, but I would not make a show of it. It would feel so completely dishonest. Maybe I'm naive, but I instinctively assume other people be as honest/stupid as me...

Originally Posted by Durelin

Though the beginning of Lommy's last post bothers me. She seems to be freaking a little. I understand frustration; I mean, I'm rather frustrated with the promises of innocence and the like (are you trying to appeal to people's compassion? cause you won't get that from me.. ), but my dear, regardless of if Boro was in danger or not it still seems odd to be so afraid to lose him. In a gifteds game we could leave it to suspecting giftedness (but then being so open about that would be really...not smart), but obviously we can't do it. But I agree that a great amount of energy shouldn't be put into investigating the *everybody loves Boro* theory.

Freaking a little? Frustrated? I hope not, because I actually did not feel frustrated, I was simply wondering. Or okay, I started to become gradually slightly frustrated when I wrote that. But "frustrated" is too strong a word, "mildly annoyed" would do better. I just don't understand why do people concentrate on it so much.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I do wonder though what Lommy meant by this earlier:

Was that a sarcastic comment on my flip-floppiness or an actual question to me?

edit: xed with Noggless

[Macalaure]

As far as I'm concerned, the wolves play it very neatly so far. There's a couple of people that I find innocent-looking (Rikae, Lily and Volo, less so Ka and Nerwen, mostly because of Volo's points against them). Nogrod, Mith and McCaber are probably innocent, too, but I'm not sure yet. This leaves Durelin (who I have no idea about), Boro, Menel and Lommy. I find neither particularly suspicious, but one of them is propbably going to receive my vote, out of sheer lack of something better.

About Boro, I don't like the way he tried to make Mith look bad, the way he retaliated against Rikae and, of course, his sudden vote for me.

About Menel, I have nothing new (his vote and what Nogrod already said yesterday)

About Lommy I only have a strange feeling.