Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nerwen]

No, I don't think it's Lommy. I've just re-read everything she said in the first two Days, and I highly doubt she's a wolf. The other two would certainly bear looking at. I haven't given much thought to Greenie... and Durelin I find positively creepy.

[Volo]

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Volo

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Rikae

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

I am aware of that. I would like to think of her as Innocent. I'm not fully convinced though.
If she's a Wolf, the kills have been to her favour.

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

What are your, Durelin, conclusions at the moment? (I hope she comes soon.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Volo

What do you, Rikae, think about her?

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea... although we'd probably learn more by lynching Mac.
I'm not sure about the likelyhood of them being wolves together, though. I'll have to go back and look at their interactions more closely...

[Mithalwen]

Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Sorry to be dense but who is Lily?

A Little Green has many names. That's one of them, devised by Mac.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Volo

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

Look, I said before that there's nothing much to go on with her– it's more of a general bad feeling she's giving me, as if she's making sure she never says anything definite. I don't know.

Originally Posted by Volo

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis.

I have no idea what to say to that, Volo, except that it wasn't.

[Volo]

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis. At first I wanted to agree, but something feels foul now.
Not to forget that the two Days before were very smoothly (although this can apply to Durelin too, but to a lesser extent).
I'm quite ready to call her a Wolf - the thing that bothers me however is how quick Mac and Nogrod were to agree about her. Maybe others too, I think I'll check that next.

[Volo]

Thoughts on Nerwen by others.

Day1

Originally Posted by Rikae

In this vein, my first reaction to Nerwen's post was "wolf!" but I think it might be wise to try to look beyond what is apparently a bias on my part. If anyone's interested, it was the structure of her post -- banter, followed by a rather off-the-wall bit of wolf-strategy-theory, followed by a defense. Too people-pleasing, I thought, too cautious.

However, although that was my first reaction, I'm aware I have a tendency to always find Nerwen suspicious (and Durelin, and Aganzir... just laying my cards on the table), so, on second glance...

Rikae finds Nerwen's first post suspicious, is uncertain and wary of Nerwen, later says that Nerwen is always suspicious to her.

Lommy, Mac and Lily find Nerwen Innocent (in that order) without appearant reason. (In the same contexts Lommy also thinks of Boro and Sally as Innocent; Lily thinks Rikae, later Sally and Lommy.)
However:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nerwen I used to think innocent, but her post about McCaber doesn't look good, very hasty actually. But then, a wolf might like to give her posts a more polished look.

Nogrod states that Nerwen's analyses are very roundabout. Is later uneasy about her, also about Volo, McCaber, The Ka and LG.

Durelin can't read Nerwen.


Conclusion:
Nerwen doesn't jump out, is regarded quite Innocent.
I find Lommy's and Lily's trust rather too quick, possible Wolf connection.


I'll post this and move to Day2, in a shortend version, because time is running out.

I feel that there's something nasty about lynching Mac. More and more I feel like he's being framed.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Volo

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

Being right when looking backwards to people's votes, arguments and "hunches" isn't actually a sign of an innocent. Remember that the wolves can be right 100% if they wish - and the situation allows them to do it. When a wolf "gets something wrong" it's always deliberate but innocents need to guess and argue on premises they're not sure if they are correct with interpretations they can't be sure.

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

Looking at other candidates then as well.

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.

Of others I'm still a bit uneasy - or at least a bit confused - with Volo as he both turns up in all those "cross-listings" of mine (Gwathwagon and "let's not lynch Boro" - btw. alongside Mac) and because of his marked going to and fro with the two aforementioned. He says that he thought Nerwen wolfy yesterDay but not toDay (did he say he thought Nerwen was suspicios to him in the first place?) but then again turns a round in his latest posts, he agrees Mac felt bad yesterDay but yet turns it around as well.

The one also popping up in my "cross-listings" in both categories is Mith with whom I'm in total darkness right now. I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch. Now Mac is there with two hits - and the others are Volo and Mith. I'd say one of them is a wolf and am inclined to vote Mac toDay for reasons stated above and earlier.

Okay. I need to go and continue in the kitchen... but I will be back later.

EDIT: X'd with everything the last half an hour (beginning from Rikae)

[Thinlómien]

Quick post before I continue Macalysis...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”

Actually I was commenting the overall paranoia.

Originally Posted by Mac

What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.

Agreed. I'm aware of my playing style. Why? I don't know. I could give you a list of rather insignificant reasons (like "I was a wolf in the last game and now I'm enjoying the plain craziness of being an ordo" or "people accused me based on my playing style very early on so I had to pay attention to it") but I doubt you'd buy it because even I don't totally believe those are the reasons why.

Originally Posted by Mac

Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.

I was not fishing for pity. I don't think I need pity. I don't suffer from being confused. I might sound careless but I actually partly enjoy being confused, especially now as I'm beginning to be what a certain person is hiding so I'm not confused about everything. Lastly, I was just pointing out the thing that seemed like a difference between the four of you and myself. If I actually was drowning in self-pity, I would not compare myself with ww masterminds like you at all...

Originally Posted by Mac

If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves.

I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am.... Also, I hope I don't really give an impression to be like that because I consider myself a pretty straightforward person and if I'd want to get rid of somebody I'd build the cases myself, trust me. Now, I'm off to comment on some actions of yours... *whistles in a carefree manner*

Seriously, yes, I'm going to complete my analysis now but I'm afraid it will end up rather biased because Macalaure screams a wolf to me. His points against me are weak and it looks like he's just demonstarting to me that he actually dares to attack and vote me unlike I claimed. I think it's very improbable that I'll end up voting anyone else but I'll just complete the analysis for the sake of being just and finishing things I've started. Maybe I'll even be surprised...

Oh, and as a parting shot i'd like to say that Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing... but I suspect him less than I used to.

edit: xed with Nerwen

[Volo]

Drat! I deleted my post by mistake!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)

It is possible, yet no more than that.

Since you mention it, I think Mac's death would reveal the most toDay, but I'm afraid he's being framed. I have a feeling that everybody is happy to lynch him, which means that either he is Innocent or his partners have decided to abandon him - probably toDay.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing...

Oh, come on, quit it.


Anyway:

Nogrod - Feels reluctant to suspect Nerwen fully, although he has been agreeing that she is too careful.
Rikae - The first to suspect Nerwen. Although somehow feels very undecisive.
Durelin - On Day1 says that she can't read Nerwen, on Days 2 and 3 she thinks that Nerwen's vote for Volo was too safe. Doesn't suspect her.
Mithalwen - Never even mentioned Nerwen - suspicious. Or is it what she does usually?
Macalaure - Finds her Innocent at first, but less so after #206. Quite suspicious, a sign of partnership?
Meneltarmacil - One comment, which I don't really understand.
Volo - Strong suspicion most of the time since Day2. Undecisive.
Thinlómien - Has regarded Nerwen Innocent from the very beginning, without much reason. Not a very safe thing to do.
A Little Green - Same as Lommy.


It's possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree as everybody is quite undecisive about Nerwen. Possible partnership with just about everybody.
Ok, Mac is the target of toDay's discussion - I'll move on to him after Menel, and a sauna. *sigh*


Xd with everything since #338.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Volo

Drat! I deleted my post by mistake!

It is possible, yet no more than that.

What do you mean? You ARE Volo!

Did you just confess?

[Thinlómien]

To my best, I'll try to be objective and not to let the fact that I suspect Macalaure interfere. The cost of this is that - I predict - you have to bear with my flip-floppiness.

Now, let's begin


Day1

#14 The odd comment: "Sadly, this means that the innocent side, having me on their team, is severely handicapped." I still think there's something wrong with it. Casts suspicion on Nogrod, banters with Gwath. Nothing sinister in there, I think. You have to start suspicions early in order to get the game rolling.

#24 Replies to Lommy: answers her questions and returns her suspicions. Says she's too quick to accuse. Now this is rather weird. He's perfectly alright with throwing half-hearted Day1-suspicions at Nogrod, but when someone throws them at him, he says the person is too quick to accuse. Quite fishy, unless his accusation of Nogrod was really serious. Which would be quite fishy too, based on just one post.

#63 The infamous over-reacting statement: "A couple of hours into the game, and already everybody is talking about me..." Replies to Menel and says he mentioned Nogrod's suspicious behaviour because it was the only suspicious thing he could see at that point. Emphasises he didn't make a big deal out of it. Corrects Ka's quote. Agrees with Nerwen about THE Ka posting a lot with little substance. Banters with Rikae, says Nerwen strikes him as innocentish. Nothing wrong here in this post, except the beginning that - I think - has been discussed enough.

#92 Just says he's there and off to reread and nothing caught his eye this far.

#104 Says Boro seems innocent except he's a tad too authoritative and corrects him on the issue of Greenie's gender. Doesn't like Gwath's vote and thinks Boro has a point against him. "I used to agree with Boro on Menel - until I saw his vote. It looks to much like "let's start a bandwaggon against a widely suspected villager". But I guess I'm still overestimating the amount of attention given to me." Can't get a read on Sally, Volo and THE Ka. Has unspecific bad feelings about Lommy and Nogrod. On Nogrod: "I don't understand why I'm so suspicious to him, but I find the eagerness with which he pursues this suspicion worrisome." Flip-flops on Nerwen. Finds Rikae, Greenie and Dury innocentish, calls Mith and McCaber enigmas. Nothing actually wrong in here. But there's an eerie defensive feel in this post that I can't explain. Granted, an innocent might be a bit defensive when faced with the amount of suspicion there was against Mac at this point but a) there was not that much suspicion and b) Mac seems to try to hide his nervousness/defensiveness, which looks quite wolves. Now you may think I'm grasping at straws here or making mountains out of molehills but that's just the feeling I get.

#118 Answers Nogrod's accuations of him and suspects him in return. Now, I don't think retaliatory suspicion like this is necessary wolvish, on the contrary. Also, some of his posts are quite good. But why to post this 10 minutes before the deadline and start with "I don't expect he's going to be lynched today, but here's a bit about Nogrod", when it obviously was more about him himself?

#129 Posts a vote tally. Would like to give Gwath another Day but would not like to see Boro go either and says he has no idea for a last-minute counter-wagon. (Situation was Gwath 4, Boro 2, Mac 1.) Doesn't like the Day's voting. Nothing wrong in here, I think, except possibly the fact that he had suspected Gwath earlier. But I actually acted the same way towards McCaber the next Day, so it is not necessarily sinister.

#140 Votes Gwath, although he'd prefer voting Lommy. Since Gwath was to die anyway, why not to vote me and make an actual statement of it?

#142 "Where did the Caber-waggon come from?" An interesting question.


Day2

#152 Is surprised of sally's death. Summarises what sally did on day1. Also summarises other people's stances towards her. Says sally's death was probably in order not to leave tracks and it points towards careful wolves. Aks if the wolves are careful because they ahve been under a lot of pressure or because they are cold-blooded. Now this looks quite innocent, given that Mac himself was under pressure the Day before. "What I don't understand is: Why pick a no-trailer who causes confusion when other, less confusing, no-trailers are there to choose from. Maybe they thought her death would cause sufficient confusion, more than anybody else's death." "Both Boro voters are dead now. Does this point towards him being a wolf? I don’t think so." Is not sure of what to make of Boro's certainity about sally's innocence. "I feel good / a little better about the people who have suspected Sally yesterDay (Nogrod, Durelin, Rikae), because to them she could have served as a future lynch candidate. I also think better of THE Ka, because she said she enjoyed Sally's posts and it would be cold-blooded indeed to kill her after that." Ok, the first point is valid while the second is not, like I already said earlier. If Mac's a wolf, I'd consider looking at Dury, Noggie and Rikae, that would be a convenient way for a fellow wolf to make them look better without being easily tracked.

#155 Jokes to Mith. I'd actually like to think him innocent simply because I laughed so much at this post.

#165 Analyses votes: mildly defends Rikae's vote, says Menel's and McCaber's are suspicious, Boro's and Greenie's neutral, Volo's confused, Dury's and Nog's innocent, Mith's would be bad if Boro was a wolf and Lommy's a "risky vote for a wolf if the Caberwaggon would have succeeded. A smart vote for a wolf in case she reckoned that it wouldn't." Nothing odd here, I guess, except the last phrase spotted by Greenie. Like I and Rikae have said, it indeed could be that he knew that McC was innocent and slipped here. I'm not too sure anyway...

#169 Speculates about Mith's relation to Boro. Concludes "There's the possibility that you're evil and trying to get the trust of Bordomir, but I think there are better leads to follow at the moment." I see nothing bad here, but neither it is particularily innocentish.

#183 Summarises his feelings about people, says he's quite confused. Innocentish: Rikae, Nerwen, THE Ka, Little Green, puzzled/no idea: Durelin, Mith, Volo, Lommy, vague bad feelings: Nog, Boro, Menel is his would-be-main-suspect " but there's something telling me I'm getting something wrong there." His indecidedness in this post was the main reason of me thinking him innocent at one phase. Clearly a wolf would make up some suspicions as people who don't say anything on anybody are often accused of wolfishness. But I wouldn't put it past Mac that he was double-bluffing... "Maybe it's because we don't have a seer that nobody is acting really nervous. Maybe the benefit of the seer is not only in his actual dreams, but also in the pressure he puts on the wolves indirectly." Good observation.

#209 Explains his words about my vote for McCab. In my opinion, he does it convincingly, just like I predicted he would. Also explains why he did not vote me although he'd have preferred that. Nothing bad in here.

#220 Talks about people, ends up stating almost everybody looks more or less innocent except Boro, Lommy and Menel. Now this I find quite wolvish... How can he feel so good about everybody?

#234 "What I don't like about voting Boro, is his edginess. The Borowolves I remember all "looked fairer". His actions today look quite bad, but I feel like buying his frustration. I actually happen to share it." Actually, looks quite innocent.

#238 Posts a vote tally, does not like the way it's going (Mac 2, Volo 2, Caber 1, Boro 1, Rikae 1). Of course he doesn't because he's in danger of getting lynched...

#242 "*takes A Little Green off his list of innocents*" Yes, her vote was A Little Fishy.

#246 "What really makes me feel bad about those who are voting me, is that not one of them has a good reason behind it." If we can take Rikae's word of it (which I'm inclined to do because it fits my picture of how Mac is), this looks quite wolvish. Whatever the case, it doesn't look particularily innocentish anyway.

#250 "I feel better about McCaber than I feel about Boro, but an innocent Boro would be a graver loss than an innocent McCaber (no offense )." Now, making way for the caberwagon... I don't like this...

#252 (In response to Rikae calling his statement in #246 wolvish) "How so? I just want to make sure that those who voted me get their share of attention toMorrow, in case I die." I'd like to call that wolvish but maybe I can't jump on everything he says just because I suspect him...

#256 "I could vote for Menel, too, if sufficient support is given. I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber since I just realised it was Menel who gave him his one vote. Boro? Menel? Or maybe McCaber? I don't want to have to vote Volo to have a chance to save myself." Didn't he just say he would not like to vote Boro?

#261 A vote tally. Calls Lommy's vote suspicious. Not much to comment.

#267 "I'd clearly prefer voting McCaber over voting Volo."

#269 Votes McCaber.


I don't have time to analyse his actions toDay and I think I remember them well enough: they are very wolvish. I will hang around here 'til deadline, but I might as well vote now and have it done so we three here on the same computer won't fight for the keyboard in the late minutes. I don't know how much I even can post from now on since I've posted the most of the three of us toDay...

++Macalaure


edit: xed with everybody who posted after my last post... I almost regret voting Mac simply because he started being so nice...

[Meneltarmacil]

++Macalaure

He's voted in major bandwagons before, I've suspected him when he cast suspicion for little reason on Day 1, and if Rikae has a bad feeling about him, she's probably onto something. (unless she's a wolf)

[Meneltarmacil]

Gaaaa! Wait, Volo saying it's possible that he himself is a Wolf?

Well, that and his Ka-vote on Day One... He's definitely being quite the oddball this time, and I don't exactly know why.

Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

[Nerwen]

No, they're not.

Now I have to think what this means.

Is Volo just being weird again for the hell of it? Did he accidentally confess to being a wolf? Did he intentionally confess? If he's a wolf, does that mean I was right about Volo-Mac-Durelin, or is he doing what Rikae did last game and fake-defending them?

Anyway–

++Volo.

I can't let that go.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Volo]

*sigh* The sauna was messed up and although I'm pessimistic about this game, I'm here again.

Really, you aren't being helpful, Nerwen and even more, Menel. Of course I don't claim myself to be a Wolf. Is there any possible reason for doing so? Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW.

Menel, you're being such a submarine... I can't imagine that you're Innocent and that uninterested.

Lommy's Macalysis is funny, she feels both defencive, appologetic and actually says more things that refer to Mac's Innocense than guilt. Oh well.


EDIT: Xd with everything since #348.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Gaaaa! Are the votes retractable, by any chance?

Nope, I'm afraid not.