Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Durelin]

Whatever you say, phantom, dear.

(Nothing meant by 'dear', Lhuna. )

[Cailín]

I wish to point out that I've been misquoted twice now (due to a nameless possession this was not noted before).

Roa assigns one of Celuien's quotes about teamwork pattern and so on to me. The quote includes the word flux - not even sure what that means.

This quote is later also assigned to me by Ka. I actually find this carelessness rather suspicious, but I want to clear up this situation at least. Roa's mistake is a bit strange, but Ka's words about me over faulty evidence is more worrying. Based on events of Day 1 she's right at the top of my suspicion list.

[Kath]

Oh there are so many posts and my head is just not up for it right now. I was going to have a good look but ... ok you know what I'm going to go away for a bit and try and come back later with something more helpful.

[Nerwen]

Based on my previous arguments, here is a list of people I think are being (deliberately?) unhelpful/diversionary/sinister.

1. The Phantom.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Bah! Why bother trying to find Wolves?

...etc.. etc... starting the whole endless argument that has been going around in circles all Day.

2. Mormegil

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm only to this point but I must agree with the phantom here. The EW is the key to our success or theirs. (Oh, I can't wait until people misread that statement!) Anyway the EW is the deciding factor.

Originally Posted by mormegil

No, we can't no for certain can we? However, I consider playing the odds the best bet at this stage of the game. If I were the EW, well I would pick...well there's something I must do but I will be back.

Well, that was helpful, Mormegil.

3.Gwathagor

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up. No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

No, you mean "in The Phantom's and Morm's opinions". You sound a lot like a Gwathwolf in that post, my dear highwayman, always trying to side with the majority...

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

++Sally

And you voted her because...?


4.Brinniel

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other. So we should look for a different connection...and that'd be between the EW and the wolves. By lynching wolves, we will have better clues to who the EW may be.

So, the plan's lynch people at random in the hope that some of them will turn out to be wolves, who will in turn give a clue to the EW?


5.Celuien

Originally Posted by Celuien

At this point, I think our best chances as a village lie with the scrying and seering. The usual daytime teamwork patterns can't be counted upon as a way to look for evil since there's no way to know if the wolves know each other's identities - and I would doubt that at this early point that they would as there's too much chance of flux from one side to the other. By the same token, it's high unlikely that they know the EW's identity. And other sneaky behaviors can't even be counted on because the wolves are perfectly replaceable while the village is still this large, and for all we know might be out there as cannon fodder to distract and confuse the search for the EW, who's really the one that has to be discovered to stabilize the werewolf population flux and make it possible for the village to be victorious.

And we'll do this... exactly how? Not leading up to another "lynch at will" proposal, by any chance?

6.Cailin.

Carries out Morm's proposal to guess who the EW would have picked by making a list of wolves, based on personality alone. That's pointless and looks like a possible diversion attempt.

7.Legate?

Logical and sensible, but is there a bit of a slippery feel to some of his posts? Nothing I can put my finger on right now, though.

There are also a number of other people, eg McCaber, Shasta, who have posted little or nothing and are possibly flying under the radar.

Edit: fixed numbering.
Edit #2: X'd since The Phantom at #91.

[Isabellkya]

I just wanted to point something out as I continue to read.

Originally Posted by Nog

Order of Nightly activities

1. Wizards make their scries.
2. Affected players & wizards are informed of the results.
3. Seer dreams, ranger protects & hunter hunts.
4. Wolves kill.

I believe Durelin touched upon it - that the EW could easily have her remaining wolves kill the lost one, before we even knew about it.

Someone did mention it, however I forgot to make a note of it. About the GW having her Ranger protect the Wolf>Ordo, and thus the EW not being able/wanting to waste a kill on a possibly protected Lost Wolf. Yet there is no guarantee that the GW will always have a Ranger.

I don't see a problem with using the usual method to search for Wolves. Sure the Wolves will most likely be a bit more wary as in all probability they do not know their fellows. However if the EW were to instruct any of them to change their typical playing style, I'm sure it would be picked up on.

Some have said it, and I'll just spit it back out. Being either the EW or GW is in all likelihood going to take an amount of commitment, which would most likely not suit someone whom may have larger RL time restraints. I also doubt a newer WW player would want to undergo such a thing. However, I don't believe things can be 100% ruled out of the realm of possibility, purely because there is a large chance of them not being true or occuring.


X'd since Cailin's #101.

[Macalaure]

Legate is unwilling to answer my question about his comment on tp, getting ridiculously defensive instead. What you're hearing right now is the sound of my alarm bells ringing.

But now I need to go over today's posts again and look for people who haven't gotten their deserved share of attention today. My son seems to be hogging it once again...

[Nerwen]

Yes, but as you can surely see, I was leading up to my reasons for placing certain people on my suspicion list.

Having said all that, I have to make an early vote which is necessarily somewhat random.

Hmmn.

++Cailín

seems awfully jumpy all of a sudden...

Edit: X'd since Cailín at #108.

[Cailín]

"seems awfully jumpy" on you, yes!

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Perhaps (forgive me, but Nogrod isn't here and someone has to mention it) each of us should, when choosing among our suspects, also think about who is more likely to be discovered later, and who is a potential "submarine"? I don't necessarily mean the quieter or less experienced players, but those who are difficult to judge or easy to overlook.

(emphasis added...)

KATH. morm.

Legate was pretty darned defensive there. That's a lengthy rant of a paragraph to devote to defending his opinion of...phantom sillyness.

Edit: Crossed with Cailin.

Not on me, yet?

And yeah, with the Legate thing I was responding to Mac. That was the only thing Legate's said that's stood out to me at all, in a good light or bad.

[Roa_Aoife]

Sorry about the quote mix up, Mac. I had just woken up and was trying to get ready for work. It's fixed now. I don't why my post looks bad to you, unless you're worried about the village benefiting from my experience. Perhaps you could be clearer.

There's been numerous comments about how difficult Day 1's are, and how we likely won't catch a wolf. I'm not gettting into it. You all should look about at all the signatures that say "Fenris Wolf" to understand the flaws in those statements.

Durelin, I couldn't agree with you more about the compromising. People should vote for who they think is guilty.

Sally's vote for phantom seems a bit odd. I know, I think he's horribly suspicious at best, or a diliberately unhelpful villager at worst (And yes that is the worst of the two). But she doesn't give much reasoning herself. It's alomst as though she tried to guess the flow of conversation and encourage it towards phantom.

Advice for the village- avoid stating whom you trust/ think looks innocent. You'll only be giving the EW easy choices.

I have to vote- I don't have time for more.

++Phantom

Good hunting. Hopefully, I'll be back tomorrow with further insight for the village into the role of the EW.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Sally's vote for phantom seems a bit odd. I know, I think he's horribly suspicious at best, or a diliberately unhelpful villager at worst (And yes that is the worst of the two). But she doesn't give much reasoning herself. It's alomst as though she tried to guess the flow of conversation and encourage it towards phantom....

++Phantom

This looks a bit odd. Slandering (well, thats a bit of a harsh word, but still, you get the point-perhaps scold is a better word) Sally for voting phantom and then voting for him yourself. And yu also didn't give a reason.

I also find THE Ka a bit suspicious, she's not really saying much, and doesn't seem suspicious- but that just makes her more suspicious to me. I have a feeling that she's hiding something.


Another thing I've beent thinking about is that maybe the EW will only tell each WW another WW's identity, so they can work together, but will not be able to reveal the whole group if the are converted. But this could only happen later on in the game, when there will undoubtedly be more WW's (and I'm sure a real WW will use this as a quote to "prove" that I'm a WW by way of a slip- but its not). I would probably do that if I was the EW.

x-ed since Roa

[Cailín]

I've been jumping on you all your life, naughty child, and don't think that's going to stop!

But Nerwen looks bad to me. Soon as I voice doubts about her she says that I'm ''jumpy'' and votes for me -- despite not waiting for my riposte in our discussion (known because she cross-voted with me).

I'm thinking about voting for THE Ka, for her carelessly copying Roa's misquote about me. Although she doesn't really make a big deal of it, which makes me wonder.

Hmm.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

WHAT IS THE QUESTION.

What. makes. the. phantom. appear. cobblerish?

"Just look at his posts" is not an answer.

Actually, I only asked in the first place to get some response from you, not necessarily an answer to the question. The response I got - and you won't like my conclusion.

[Lalaith]

Right, black sheep is back.
I've had a quick look at all the posts and the first thing that strikes me, is this debate about wizards over-ruling and/or changing people's natural playing styles. It's an interesting idea, and got me thinking.

I don't think the EW is going to tell the wolves about each other, and I don't even think that s/he's going to reveal to them. But what s/he might do, I think, is give them a shortlist of non-evil team people to frame for lynching, in order to stop them killing each other by mistake.

So here's a possible way to catch wolves - who's trying to trump up a spurious charge against someone, and are there any patterns there?

Anyway, I'm going to do a closer analysis of posts, and then I'll post again. Also, if no-one else has done a vote count by the time I'm done, I'll post one of those too.

[Durelin]

I forgot about the "unwilling to answer my question" part. I did think Legate rather answered your question, whether you got the answer you wanted or not, Mac.

Actually the question was a little much, too. What's the use of labeling phantom as cobblerish? Getting him ignored? Well...

Yeah, my mind's jumping around. I need to go back and read instead of pulling from memory one piece at a time.

Edit: Crossed with Mother.

Good point. Even Lhuna gets to jump on me for every little slip of my phial... Where is that horrible sister of mine, anyway? We stopped the in-character posts for you, you can come back now!

[Cailín]

About the phantom: he seems merely to be playing with the dynamics of this game. Because of the uncertainty whether one will wake up on the same side tomorrow as one is today, he has interpreted the role of villager as neutral rather than on the side of good. All this boy needs is a little direction.

He may be a wizard and playing a bluff. I doubt he is a wolf.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So here's a possible way to catch wolves - who's trying to trump up a spurious charge against someone, and are there any patterns there?

I don't completely understand you. And whatever it is you mean, it won't work anymore. Quite bad to suggest to the Wolves as soon as Day1 what they should avoid doing. If you have a plan how to spot Wolves, keep it hidden and don't tell it to the Wolves. Your idea of a shortlist is quite odd on its own.

edit: Xd since Cailin.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agan is definitely not sitting right with me. Really. There's something too... cunning and sneaky in her manner. I don't trust her a little bit. Something in her manner sharply reminds me of her in the Day0 of Volo's game where she was wolf but did not know the identity of her fellows. I can't say what exactly is the thing that is similar, but there is a freaky similarity. I think it has something to do with a certain devil-may-care attitude when it comes to accusing people. I bet that if she's a wolf who has not been told her fellows' identities, she does not care if she lynches them or not, she just wants to stay alive and thus accuses those that genuinely seem wolvish to her. Also, she's not the tiniest bit concerned about flushing out gifteds. I may be reading too much into this, but I think there's this sort of recklessness behind her posts and I do not like it. But if we better wolf candidates, I'm all for keeping her as she's quite sharp and can benefit us as much as her own team.

Originally Posted by Agan, in answer to the underlined part

Well you're right there - at least that's what I did in Volo's game. But that argument doesn't quite apply to here - the wolves just can't play the way they'd like. If they don't know the EW's identity, they have to be careful not to accidentally accuse her.

Actually, Lommy made a very good point about Agan. She [Agan] certainly tosses suspicions that way and this way and banters an unnerving ammount of time. At points I'm not sure whether she's joking or not, and that I regard dangerous, because she can always decide later which way she meant it. Ok - maybe I'm only complaining that she's joking at all as I'm refering to her suspicions in #68.
But what is more suspicious is her answer to Lommy's suspicion. I don't think it makes a difference and it certainly doesn't work as a defence.

It's quite unnerving to me, but I however agree with Agan about Legate. He felt systematical, tight and nastier than usually in the beginning, and although Mac overdid his questioning a bit, Legate got unnecessarily glued to the question of tp's cobblerism. Then he changes back to good ol' kind Leggie when he answers me and changes the subject away from tp in the post before. He must have realized that there was something wrong with what he was doing. Yes, also this:

Originally Posted by Leggie

Eee, Volo, I only hope one answer would be sufficient for you, okay? Anyway, I don't have much other to comment on, so I can give it a little time. But just a little, mind you.

He noticed it! (Personally though, I find his answer good enough and quite sensible. Does it mean he's admiting that it isn't sensible? :S)

Lily I do suspect slightly, but her I suspect even when we aren't playing Werewolf. I'll see what it is this time later.

edit: Xd with all since #144.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Legate is unwilling to answer my question about his comment on tp, getting ridiculously defensive instead. What you're hearing right now is the sound of my alarm bells ringing.

Look, I've been trying to answer you for about four posts. And obviously I have still not answered the question you want to have answered. Just tell me then WHAT IS THE QUESTION. Clearly, simply, if possible in one sentence, the way that it will be understandable. I thought I guessed what you meant last time. Apparently not. Then tell me.

[Rikae]

He's not the cobbler, he's a very naughty boy.

Really, I simply can't stand this statistics business, especially on day one. TP isn't taking into account the abilities of the GW and gifteds to help us rid the village of wolves. Besides, if we are able to hunt down the EW, as my impudent son seems to think (but doesn't mention how), we can hunt down wolves more easily still. Sure, if you find the EW, great - but this kind of talk is demoralizing for the village and, I suspect, nothing but an attempt to start controversy and, of course, get attention. Stop it now, or you'll go to bed without supper!

As for what I think of my husband.... I don't instinctively trust him, anyway. He's grasping at straws a bit himself (I always heard the phrase worded that way), but then, it's only day one and maybe that is to be expected. Of course I'm watching him closely. I did think his point about Greenie was good, though. That sort of careful wording and passive approach is classically wolfish (to name just one wolfish behavior that is not related to wolf interactions).

Otber thoughts at the moment... Roa, Volo,and Lommy look pretty good to me so far... Legate does seem a bit sneaky and controlled, but then, I'm questioning myself on that since I've thought that before when he was innocent. Aganzir doesn't quite seem her usual self- more excited, more defensive, perhaps, and Sally is also acting rather out of character, as others mentioned. Morm and Mac have both seemed a bit eager to accuse, but then, that isn't entirely out of character for either of them.

Alhough I've said that I don't like pessimistic assessments of our wolf hunting abilities on the whole, I do think it's highly unlikely we'll catch a wolf toDay. I certainly don't feel I have enough to go on yet. Perhaps (forgive me, but Nogrod isn't here and someone has to mention it) each of us should, when choosing among our suspects, also think about who is more likely to be discovered later, and who is a potential "submarine"? I don't necessarily mean the quieter or less experienced players, but those who are difficult to judge or easy to overlook.