Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I got to irritate at least one person here - my work is done.

I've been thinking about the NIGHT's kill, and I came up with this notion: The Dark Side fears killing the Hunter above all.

Think about it: they have four Wolves now (=2 kills/NIGHT), and with the absence of double lynching, we could kill only a maximum of one Wolf per DAY. So, even if we get one lupine pelt today, with a successful EW-scry, they would still have 2 kills.

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

So I've looked at the posts of the NIGHT's victim, checked whom they suspected, decided that they are probably innocent.

Kitanna voted for morm, and suspected . . . well, no-one else.

Volo voted for Agan; suspected Legate, Greenie, Sally (mildly), tp (at first) Celuien, and Cailín; and defended tp and Agan (at first).

So morm, Agan, and Legate are probably innocent. (Or they are controlled by a very bold EW--or perhaps even one of them is! But I'll stick with what I said first.) Greenie, Sally-poo, and tp are less so.

I kept thinking along the same lines and came up with another thing: Since they can maintain 2 kills/NIGHT from this point on (so long as they don't stumble upon a Hunter that knows his job), the EW could tell the Wolves the identity of their fellows (well, perhaps not all). Since there's no double lynching, even a reformed Wolf with knowledge of two (or even three) cannot damage the Dark Side all that much, since the EW can replace the Wolf lost to lynching . . .

(If the EW is confident that all of her minions will survive DAY 1, she could even have them talking from the start!)

I have to vote soon, so I have to find someone to vote for. *sigh*