Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Macalaure]

I forgot to add Aganzir's reaction to Volo yesterday. It basically comes down to one "". I also noticed that Aganzir was very laid back about Lommy's accusations until rather late in the Day. It gives me a little bit of the feeling of a baddie trying to not put any unnecessary spotlight onto the points others give against her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac always suspects those who disagree with him (shamefully), so I don't find that suspicious in itself.

Eh? I know I have a reputation for auto-trusting those who agree with me, but I don't think I always mistrust those who disagree.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

I agree about the evil team's fear of the hunter, especially since the GW can give him all information about dreamt of wolves (high hunter success rate!). I just wanted to add that they also fear that a wolf is taken away by the GW's scry.

It's funny that we have similar ideas, but reach completely different conclusions.

There was no seer dream yet, and the hunter doesn't necessarily pursue the same people at day and night, so I don't think the risk was very high - this early.

[the phantom]

Just checking in for a couple of minutes...

I'm liking Nilp right now. Keep him alive I say.

Originally Posted by Green

Now what the heck is this about? "If you go on suspecting me, I'll have you lynched even though I think you are innocent!" ?

Great, now everyone is misquoting me.

I don't say I'll lynch her for suspecting me. As a matter of fact I tell her to "go ahead" and continue suspecting me. I said I'd want to lynch her if she didn't let that one particular issue go.

I'm fine with people suspecting me and even voting for me, so long as they do it for good reasons.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

And who would think of the phantom more than anyone?

the phantom.

I so called it.

*grin* I love you, Lhuna.

Originally Posted by Brin

But I don't think they're opinions of one another should matter anymore than anyone else's. Just because they know each other in RL doesn't always mean they'll have better judgements.

Maybe, but the fact is it was helpful to me to ask. If I wouldn't have I never would've known that Agan would actually love to be a Wizard.

Originally Posted by Brin

So how do we catch the first wolf typically?

Quite often luck.

Sometimes with a Seer dream or Hunter's hunt.

The couple times I've spotted one, it was only because they made lists that I suspected they were trying to hide their fellow WWs on (thus the connections were extremely important to me). As a matter of fact, in Lommy and Nog's WerePenguin game that is how I grew to be suspicious of 2 WWs on the very first day.

Anyway, I've got to run off to work. I'm late!

I'll be back in about four hours.

[mormegil]

This is great! We have the phantom and Roa, going at it like two dogs over the last bone. My gut feeling and based upon the skim reading I've done (I knew it would be this way the first day or two...there is just too much posting for me to detail everything out) is that they are both innocent and attacking each other. I still can't shake the feeling I've got about Brinniel and will likely revote for her today. Although nothing conclusive can be drawn from Volo yesterday it is intersting to note his view on Agan.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Legate

Hey, hey, hey, but YOU were a WOLF back there!!! JUST A MO...!!!
What, are you trying to signalize to me, trying to pick a fellow wolf? Bad guess, miss! I am not one! ARE YOU???

I think we have games mixed up. I’m referring to when you were a mod of the gladiator-like game (where three of us at a time would compete, then the game would revert back to a normal ‘village’ setup), y’know, “Taliesin of Nothing”. I was a protector, and unfortunately a very obvious one not only to wolves, but others spotted as well.
Now, in the fellowship-setup, yes I was a very bad wizard, but I felt like mother theresa all the same and to everyone else (except maybe Nogrod).

Usual self? But Aganzir's usual self could just as easily be evil. After all, she's been evil in almost half of the games she's played...

True, but I’m looking very closely for something to pop out. She has varying degrees of evilness. I can’t explain it exactly, but I usually can tell whether she’s a gifted at least vs. ordo or wolf. This time I’m not very sure she is gifted necessarily, so it’s either the other two (then again, Agan have you been an ordo before? I don’t think in any WW we’ve played together.)


Thanks for clearing that up Gwath, and no worries. I was a bit curious why you seemed so quiet.

After thinking about it last night, Volo might have been a somewhat random kill mixed with an, ‘ah ha! Possible messages in the post!’ attitude. Also, being the second Night, I surmise that they could take the gamble of testing immediate theories. The only question now is whether that would tell us or them if the GW let the other gifteds know about him or not (and vice versa). (Sorry if I'm behind the times at the moment, I don't have much time right now)


Okay, I’ve never played with phantom or Roa extensively so I have nary a clue to look for. The best I can do is just muck through the posts think more about it and post later on. I should be back before the DL.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I just wanted to add that they also fear that a wolf is taken away by the GW's scry. (Mac)

There is also that, but that is something they cannot control. (Perhaps the EW can minimise that danger by picking unscryable targets--but what constitutes an unscryable target?) Enedwaith, they can control the Hunter-killing affair by avoiding the Hunter (not killing anyone who suspects a Werewolf.)

And thanks for summarising the Nerwen-bandwaggon for me.

Since I've managed to convince myself that the Wolves do talk to each other (), I can use my normal vote-analysis method.

Nerwen-bandwaggon, in order of increasing suspicion. (Times are GMT+8.)

1. Aganzir (06:59am), who had to vote to save herself--there were still three villagers who didn't vote, two of whom have posted (Lhuna and Kath-chan). If Agan does turn out to be evil, they are probably innocent. (Or perhaps the wolves can't communicate. Haha.)
2. Cailín (05:56am) who started the whole thing with a valid reason.
3. Durelin (06:28am), who has expressed suspicion of Nerwen throughout--even before Cailín (q.v.)
4. Lalaith (06:15am), who did express some suspicion of Nerwen (qq.v. 146, 182)
5. Diamond18 (06:45am), who voted just cos she liked to keep Fantine. Well, in that case (DAY 1s ), I think I would have, too--but still.
6. McCaber (06:09am), who voted with a shifty reason, was the second vote in the bandwaggon (often the psychological trigger), and acted like a submarine (no suspicion commitment).

So . . .

++McCaber

G'nite!

[Rikae]

Nilp, you're forgetting that the GW can also get rid of wolves by turning them to ordos. (Or at least, failing to mention it...)
Mac, I'm sorry about that, but it goes with the territory (agree with you = good, disagree = bad). Still, I'll give you this - I usually only see you doing that early in the game. Later on, as I've always said, you're one of the best wolf-hunters out there. As you're better as an innocent than as a wolf, if I were the EW, I'd kill you or try to get you lynched, rather than scry you. Also, the EW should know that I will catch you if you are a wolf, sooner or later!

(BTW, whenever people mention the EW, I feel slightly like they're talking about me - my initials used to be E.W., and soon will be again.)

Well, I think I'll make a list - however, not everybody's gonna be on it, because I'll have to make another trip back to Noggie's post to remember everyone's name. So, those I have the strongest views on first:

____ - Whatever he is trying to do, it isn't helping the village. YesterDay I thought he was just trying to stir the pot and get people talking, a day 1 technique I approve of, but toDay he is defensive and overly focused on Roa's attacks. He felt good yesterDay, but feels less good toDay. Sure, an EW who would scry such an obvious choice would be a bold one - but that might be what we have.

Roa - Her attacks on the poster formerly known as The Phantom were indeed a little hasty - not always accurately representing his posts. She may just be letting irritation with tp overcome her judgement, but she's also one of those who gave me the "go after so-and-so toDay" vibe. I actually find both of them somewhat suspicious, and wouldn't reject the possibility they're both evil.

Macalaure - He seems like his innocent self to me. I trust him so far, and am confident I will spot him if he's turned into a wolf. I know, saying that has gotten me in trouble before, but there it is.

Aganzir - She did seem nervous yesterday to me, and I find that hard to figure out, because I have always thought she was one who could keep her cool under pressure. One thing about her is if I were a wizard, I would have had her on my list - not that that means anything.

Nilp - Has been sensible enough so far. I don't like his last post, though - misleading, demoralizing to the village.

Dury - Looks innocent to me. I think I have finally gotten used to her personality, which I always found wolfish in the past - her attitude makes me think she is an ordo now, though.

Brin - Has been bugging me. I'll have to go back and look at her posts, but my general impression has been of a sort of scattered, irrational pattern.

McCobbler- Hopped on a bandwagon yesterday, and he is, of course, the ultimate submarine.

Sally and Gwath have both struck me as being unusually devoted in this game - Sally more serious than usual, and Gwatn more vocal. Not sure what to make of that.

the rest later...

EDIT: X'd with everybody since Mac.

[Cailín]

This satansaloser character. I had initially pegged her as a sort of sacrificial wolf but maybe that's not how the evil team are playing it.

Her posting at the start of Day 2 was just silly: numerous posts, mostly chatty, saying nothing. I thought this was going to be a set-up for a campaign against her, in the mould of the Roa/Nogrod thing from the previous wizard game. Now, while I tend to be on the phantom's side of this point, thinking a wolf-on-wolf attack at this early stage to be no good, Roa and others obviously see value there; I'm not going to argue. The point is, that's what I initially suspected: sally acts all silly and she is attacked for it.

I appear to have been wrong, and I'm sure I'll be wrong a few times before the end of the game, but she's still looking suspicious to me.

She seems way too eager to appease, and to make friends; to be in the spotlight without saying anything. Her vote forthe phantom and her jollying around with him today? There's something fishy going on there.

One other point, which is merely a gut feeling. Rikae feels less intimidating in this game, and I'm not sure what that means. Could be acting more sly than usual.

[Kath]

Roa and phantom sitting in a tree ... Well I'm sorry but we've seen these mad arguments before and they almost always turn out to be two innocents going at it hammer and tongs at the expense of the village. It being Roa and phantom I wouldn't put it past them to be partners in crime but the sheer venom in the posts makes me think it unlikely.

Anyway, hello! I hope to be of more use toDay than I was yesterDay. Sadly this means I have 9 pages to catch up on rather than 4 but we'll see how it goes. I'm not entirely sure how I want to do this, I might try starting with my usual 'look at everyone' thing but that could take hours. I think I'll try it. Expect to see me again in a bit.

[Durelin]

Hmm, just wanted to note this isn't my quote, Ka, unless I posted in my sleep...

Usual self? But Aganzir's usual self could just as easily be evil. After all, she's been evil in almost half of the games she's played...

Anyway...it's interesting to see phantom on the defensive. Roa can attack anyone like crazy regardless of her role. Have no idea about either of them. I agree these things often tend to be villager on villager. However...I can see Roa EW throwing phantom-wolf to the "lambs"... Yes, she could be the EW again, lucky her.

I actually feel good about Kath because she hasn't been her usual self who seems very active and helpful but slips by with very few posts (though long and decisive). Mostly that seems to be because she's been busy. So I'm probably quite foolish to be 'feeling' anything.

I feel good about Rikae, too, for once. Yeah, I know, she feels I'm innocent-looking for once, so I have to like her too. No...I hope I'm better than that.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Rikae feels less intimidating in this game

I rather agree with this. But I don't feel like worrying about it right now.

Isabel's post bothers me. Completely useless while looking useful. Similar to Nilp, she talks about the village's situation as dire. She doesn't really say anything about anyone, but casts a general sort of suspicion over the "sillyness." All very boring and silly. I think she's a much better submarine than McCaber, and he bothers me, too.

Maybe that's why I like Rikae right now - I always did tend to side with Nogrod in his campaigns against the submarines.

Legate seems too frustrated and argumentative to be a baddie. I know he can be a very smooth wolf, and this is not it.

Originally Posted by Legate

Durelin... who apparently keeps questioning her

I'm enjoying being obnoxious, questioning any logic that bothers me (such as a sort of 'appeal to authority'), regardless of whether or not I actually find it suspicious, much less think it's important at all.

I feel okay about Mac. Have no sense of Gwath. I like Di, don't care to bother with phantom and Roa at the moment. Cailin's creepy. Aganzir, Lommy, and A Little Green all bother me. Nilp is...whatever. I feel pretty good about Lhuna. Brinniel and Ka seem so serious. Whoever I forgot - they're all wolves.