Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwath

Overall: Nogrod banters a bit, makes some good points, posits interesting theories, and seems hell-bent on finding me guilty one way or another.

Now who's the one overexaggerating...

BUt now I think I finally understand where this misunderstanding stems from:

Originally Posted by Gwath

I think he is way too interested in establishing my guilt, to the point that my guilt has become the basis of his arguments against me, and, essentially, the premises are being tailored to fit the conclusion.

Yes, I'm interested in "establishing" - well to be more precise: studying the possibility of - anyone's guilt as we need to find the wolves. One of the tested ways to do it is to look at someone's posting you feel act wolvishly and to see how it would fit were s/he a wolf. So yes, I'm looking at Gwath from the point of view of him being a wolf and seeing whether the pieces would fit (and the same goes with Brinn). I wouldn't say I'm tailoring the premises to fit but I'm trying to look at whether they do.

Before we have any hard evidence that's sadly one of the only ways to go forwards.

And there's the important added plus in that method for it always makes those who have been speculated about to react and those reactions may be very telling indeed.

So Gwath - and Brinn - I'm not particularly keen to get you two lynched as such. I'm keen on getting a wolf and you are the two I have studied a little bit because of some initial reactions of mine. YesterDay evening I was keen on getting Gwath lynched because I felt him the most suspicious, right. But if I come up with better candidates I'll be more than happy to change my focus.


OOC: I slept later than I had planned and am running to the choir-seminary now. I'll be able to post yet toDay, even if less than I hoped for.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Gwath - and Brinn - I'm not particularly keen to get you two lynched as such. I'm keen on getting a wolf and you are the two I have studied a little bit because of some initial reactions of mine. YesterDay evening I was keen on getting Gwath lynched because I felt him the most suspicious, right. But if I come up with better candidates I'll be more than happy to change my focus.

At first glance, this looks like hasty backtracking on Nogrod's part, especially given the intensity of the suspicion in his previous posts.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++Boromir

(who could have seen that coming?)

[Rikae]

For the record, Mac and Brinn, I said I thought Lal looked innocent.
More so than either of you, in fact...

[Nogrod]

Back at last... I just need to read things...

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

At first glance, this looks like hasty backtracking on Nogrod's part, especially given the intensity of the suspicion in his previous posts.

You should see me when I'm intensive with my suspicions...

[Isabellkya]

Mith -> Gwath
Boro -> Lalwende
Fea -> Boro


o.O

I'm a Cobbler, because I said you could be?

[Isabellkya]

Voting time..

++Nogrod

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch me, kkthx. (Vzv, I'm supposed to be a god o' rain, drop the /f/. )

All right, being serious . . .

Voting innocent: McCaber, Izzy, Mac, Mith

A Wolf-on-Wolf vote on DAY 1 is possible, but I don't think this one is. I'll explain in a separate post. In any case, the way they're posting toDAY corroborates their innocent auras. Speaking of posting . . .

Posting innocence: Nogrod's DAY 1 antics was rather suspicious, I would have voted for him yesterDAY (were I around then . . . ), but now his votes indicate his earnestness to get a Wolf-pelt today. He had me particularly and especially convinced with 166. Which means I'll more likely vote for Brinniel toDAY. But I'll try to get something original from my mind, too, so don't worry.

Boro looks rather earnest, too, but his feeling 'chummy' with Nogrod raises my eyebrows. A bit. But he's probably innocent.

Nerwen feels innocent, too.

More later, I'll have to chew page 6 properly, first.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Why I believe the killers of Despair-taichou are innocent.

(Borrowing Nerwen's voting list: )

Rikae --> Sally (1:19 AM GMT).
Shasta --> Boro (6:42 AM)
Brinniel --> Mac (1:27 PM)
Gwath --> Rikae (1:49 PM)
CaptainofDespair --> Day One (2:29 PM)
McCaber --> CaptainofDespair (3:35 PM)
Lalwendë --> Brinniel (3:46 PM)
Feanor of the Peredhil --> Boro (04:02 PM) (Boro 2)
Isabellkya --> CaptainofDespair (04:41 PM) (CoD 2)
Kath --> Brinn (04:41 PM) (Brinn 2)
Mac --> CaptainofDespair (4:56 PM) (CoD 3)
Nogrod --> Gwath (4:48 PM)
Sally --> Boro (4:59 PM) (Boro 3)
Mithalwen --> CaptainofDespair (4:59 PM) (CoD 4)
Boro --> Lalwendë (4:59) PM

I agree with the chappies who say the most innocent are those who voted for him last, but there are a lot more (and less damaging) people to vote for. Wolf-on-Wolf votes, in my opinion, happen only when there is less chance of there being a bandwaggon in the Wolf's 'favour.' It could be masked as vendetta votes (either due to gaming history or disagreement with strategy or whatever reason I may have forgotten) since it's less likely that vendetta votes are followed by the masses.

Therefore, I would bet my eyes (my precious bloodline limit Sharingan) that the four are innocent.

In any case, like I said, I like the way they're posting right now.

As for my suspicions:

• Nogrod's post 166 re Brinniel has convinced, like I said before. Because of this I am highly likely to vote for her.
  
  
• Gwath is rather twisty. Hehe. Meaning he seems to start with the premise that Nogrod is indeed a Wolf:

  However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. (Gwath 168)

  and then kinda goes on from there (198). Hey, I hate DAY 1s, too, man, but at least I listen to DAY 1 theories. Would you rather have us pulling names out of our hats? You vote for who you think the most suspicious is, no matter how you reach that conclusion. (Well, an innocent does. So far as I know . . . )
  
  Hmm . . . his defence of this:

  It seems obvious to me that Nogrod is making a concerted effort to find arguments against me where very few exist. His points can be summarized as follows:
  
  1. Nogrod is inclined to find me guilty because I am making assertions about other people, which I profess to not doing when I am a wolf, playing "low-key." If I were a wolf, he implies, I would do the opposite of what I claim to do as a wolf. Because I am doing the opposite (i.e. I am making points about others), I must be a wolf. This, at least, is the implication.
  
  The first problem in this argument (albeit an implied argument) is that it argues that I am a wolf based on the assumption that I am a wolf.
  
  The second problem is that he misdefines "low-key". "Low-key" does not mean silence or lack of discourse. It means that I am careful not to draw unecessary attention to myself. Lack of discourse is obvious, and therefore not low-key.
  
  2. According to Nogrod, it is strange for me to profess to "thinking on-screen."
  
  However, he purports to doing much the same thing in post #163: "I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay." There's nothing weird about this. Organizing one's thoughts by posting makes a lot of sense.
  
  3. Because I claim to be a low-key wolf, my statement in a later post that I am not trying to fly under the radar - in other words, not trying to play low-key - looks mighty suspicious.
  
  Actually, I agree with him here. I don't like, however, that he makes much of the chills and shivers that my post sends down his spine. Appeal to the emotion is an effective rhetorical device, but it's not helpful here.
  
  Overall, this post of Nogrod's seems forced and exaggerative. (Gwath)

  Yeah, I found his post a bit facetious, but it is DAY 1 'evidence' and is therefore entitled to some benefit of the doubt. At least it gets discussion moving in a better direction for the village, than, say, doing IC banter. But your defence was simply . . . *shakes head* All this talking about what you might do if you were one or other, what you think he might think of what you're doing, etc. (which you did twice--once yesterDAY and this now toDAY) and rehashing DAY 1 discussion (I thought you hated DAY 1s, why bring them here in DAY 2?) is just *shakes head some more*.
  
  
• The Fea-Shasta affair is exactly the cloak for a Wolf-on-Wolf interaction I'm wary of. Easier to survive in your own little world, after all. The cold hard world is cruel, it bitess.
  
  

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I'm a Cobbler, because I said you could be?

No, but because you say I'm trying to get the rangers to defend me. It could be a defence mechanism for a cobbler to bounce their own tricks back onto someone else who has been more active? And Boro does that too.

[Gwathagor]

Since, at this point, there's no question in my mind who I am going to vote for, I may as well do it now.

++Nogrod

His arguments against me have, from the start, been forced, illogical, and exaggerative. I find him highly suspicious.

EDIT: Crossed with Nilpaurion

[Rikae]

Nilp (and Brinn) what is this about Boro/Nog chumminess? Are you suggesting they are wolves together? That doesn't seem particularly likely, and it seems even less likely that, if they were, they would let any obvious "chumminess" show (in fact, I would expect one to get the other lynched, more probably).
Or are you suggesting that one is a wolf "buttering up" the other one? Does either of you have any specific quotes you'd like to point to? As it stands, this allegation of "chumminess" looks suspiciously vague and makes me uneasier about both Brinn and Nilp (especially Nilp, because he repeated Brinn's wording without adding to it, and while claiming to suspect her).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

His arguments against me have, from the start, been forced, illogical, and exaggerative. I find him highly suspicious.

Forced? tsk-tsk... I already told you the nature of them, testing whether they would hold. And looking at how you will react to them.

Illogical? No way. Sorry. Very much logical indeed (which doeasn't mean they are correct as the premises need to be correct for a deduction to bring forwards a true outcome - and we don't yet know the truth-value of the premises).

Exaggerative? That's in your eyes my friend. I'd like to remind you that the wolves think they're under tons of pressure when they in fact are not.

So you find me suspicious because I have suspected you? Retaliation then? If you're an inocent that's very bad playing. If you're a wolf I'd understand, but a good wolf would also know better if not under a direct death-threat.


Next stops, reconsidering Brinn & looking at Sally...

[Nogrod]

I have just totally lost track with Lalwendë. For the most part of the Day I haven't got a clue what she's talking about. I mean why the insistence the wolves are willing to kill her the next Night if not for trying to get the ranger on her?

It might point to cobblerism then, as mentioned. Boro is my other candidate for cobbler but with him I'm a bit hesitant.

And anyway it's wolves we're after in the first place, cobblers should be lynched if we are totally at loss with the wolves and have a good idea of a cobbler.

I still think the points I made on Gwath yesterDay are worth considering but if you are not willing to consider them... then you are not. I'm not going to waste my vote two times in a row so I need to reconsider. But you guys should remember what I said about him when I'm gone.


EDIT: X'd with Nilp and Gwath

[McCaber]

All right, I'm back.

Yeah, I really don't like the way sally posted yesterDay, what with the "suspicion" of the Captain in quite a lot of posts but her vote trying to lead away from his death. (Old news, I know, but I just woke up. Give me a break.)

Between Gwath and Nogrod, I'd be more inclined to vote the latter. But right now I'd rather think they're both innocents looking for wolves in the wrong places.