Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[Thinlómien]

Alright-y, I'm here too, finally.

Originally Posted by tp

Kath- She claimed to not know the Rep rules during Day 1 (she thought only Reps could post the second half). Would a KathWolf bluff something RL like that?

A wolf could very well be genuinely confused about rep rules on Day1. I find that far more probable than that a wolf would be genuinely confused about ranger rules on Day2.

Originally Posted by tp

Nerwen- Her failure to cast a Day 1 vote and the fact that she claimed not to know the rules makes her look fairly clean. I mean- she thought there was a Ranger.

Nerwen always fails to vote on Day1, whatever her role.

I think sally seems a bit too apologetic, nervous and nice. If she's the last wolf that's understandble as there's quite a lot of pressure on her. On the other hand, she has said she's really stressed and that may affect her behaviour, so her nervousness doesn't necessarily mean anything.

It's funny, I don't suspect Rune at all, even though I have absolutely no reason to trust him. He baffles me a little by differing in his opinions from the rest of the village. That's nicely refreshing. (But... I'm wondering - do I recall correctly that that has been the trademark of a wolvish Rune actually? Hmmm... I have to keep an eye on him.) I can't really bring myself to distrust Brinn either... I guess it's just gut-feeling, then. And as for Nerwen, I feel my non-suspicion of her is just a bit more reasonable.

The others I suspect to some degree. Sally the most. Greenie seems kind of genuine, but I can so very well see her as a bold wolf. Rune's suspicion of Gwath strikes me as misguided, I think Gwath is probably an ordo... but I probably think that just because he's flown completely under my radar. I'm really unsure what to think of Kath and Ilya.

As for Gil, I think this pretty much sums it up:

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually given that there WAS a kill last Night I'm thinking it's unlikely he is a wolf.

Of course, the moddesses could just have picked his kill for him, but that would be totally unfair...

As for sally's eagerness to lynch Gil, it is indeed a bit weird. Why couldn't it have waited? The numbers favour us at the moment, so we could have afforded a double lynch, yes. But why make it if the subject is probably innocent? Why not wait and see a few Days? Like now Kath has provided us with a point that almost proves Gil's innocence. But an evil sally could have wanted to reduce the number of the innocents, for now that she has been left alone, she will have to walk a rocky path to win. Also, although she explained it, her enthusiasm to take part in the lynch of morm and Nog looks a bit questionable indeed... I don't think it's a bad idea to lynch her toDay, as we have plenty of Days to try. And honestly, I think if we don't lynch sally sooner, she will become an enigma later.

Originally Posted by sally

I trust Lommie the most but at the same time I know that killing me will do no good, so why elect someone who won't help the village win the game (at least with this vote)? Know what I'm saying?

I understand the sentiment perfectly, but I think an innocent sally could ("could", not "would") have voted me nevertheless, which in turn could have made me trust her more. This being like this, sally just strikes me as more nervous than before. Also, she could have simply said "Lommy will vote me and I don't want to die so I'll vote someone else" but now she masks it as "lynching me won't profit the village", which makes me raise eyebrows. Because, really, we can very well afford losing an ordo right now.

Originally Posted by Brinn

And Kath looks more innocent because unless she didn't get the Nightly PMs, I don't see how she could miss Legate's death without bluffing (and I don't think she would).

Oh, that's true. However, her PM inbox could just have been full so that she wouldn't have received the wolf PMs.... so we can't rule her out either.

Originally Posted by tp

Green- When she argues with people and takes offense and whatnot, it seems genuine. I like her lists, and choosing morm two days in a row- surely as a WW she'd be scared to do that.

Greenie was a bold wolf in her very first game, so I wouldn't put anything past her.


edit: xed with Gwath

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Why is it we would want to lynch Gil in a few days?
It would not like having to wonder about him when we are under pressure, I would rather leave him be or get him out of the way at once.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I forgot to say that I will be leaving now. . .I am going to play some football with my father, but I will be back in a few hours.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Why is it we would want to lynch Gil in a few days?
It would not like having to wonder about him when we are under pressure, I would rather leave him be or get him out of the way at once.

I would think there would have been enough to think about in the double-lynch yesterDay. Also - granted, this did not occur to me either, so I can hardly blame sally for not thinking about it - it was wise to wait and see if there's a kill at all.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Gwathy

If I was a wolf, would I have said this:

right after the reps had just decided to lynch her?

I can't see why not.

Nevertheless, at the moment I feel most comfortable with voting

++ lynch Sally

since she is my top suspect at the moment.

This is what we call awful politicians betraying their voters... (Seriously though, I never promised not to try and lynch the ones who voted me as rep. Hah.)

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I can't see why not.

Because in that post I am associating myself with and practically defending someone who I (were I a wolf as you suggest) would have known would be revealed as a wolf upon her imminent lynching.

EDIT: Crossed with Thinlomien

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As for sally's eagerness to lynch Gil, it is indeed a bit weird. Why couldn't it have waited? The numbers favour us at the moment, so we could have afforded a double lynch, yes. But why make it if the subject is probably innocent? Why not wait and see a few Days?

But why would a wolf-sally want to get rid of Gil in particular? Wouldn't she be more likely to try to get rid of somebody more involved? Gil isn't a threat to anybody at this point.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

But why would a wolf-sally want to get rid of Gil in particular? Wouldn't she be more likely to try to get rid of somebody more involved? Gil isn't a threat to anybody at this point.

He's a threat in numbers, one more innocent to get out of her way. Also, suggesting triple lynch with anybody else but Gil as the third lynchee would have been a so-called political suicide...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

He's a threat in numbers, one more innocent to get out of her way. Also, suggesting triple lynch with anybody else but Gil as the third lynchee would have been a so-called political suicide...

So you think that she was possibly taking advantage of the situation to try to get rid of an innocent who is otherwise unlikely to be lynched? I guess that makes sense.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

So you think that she was possibly taking advantage of the situation to try to get rid of an innocent who is otherwise unlikely to be lynched? I guess that makes sense.

Yes. Or, getting rid of one innocent, and Gil was the only candidate whose lynch she could advocate without looking very suspicious herself.

[the phantom]

Real quickly- I wouldn't be too concerned about Sally voicing a desire to lynch a likely innocent Gil. I've been tempted too. Think of this- what if we just leave him around and then we get down to the final day, when there are a total of three villagers left. In a normal game two Ordos can lynch one WW. But in this game, only Reps can lynch. Which means when there are only two Ordos the WW can just sit on his Rep vote and the game is over. So, Gil or not, our last chance will be the day before.

So if we subtract an innocent Gil, that would put the day before at one WW and three Ordos, which is just fine. So Gil doesn't help the tally at all. Keeping him around does not add an extra day of life to the village.

[Gwathagor]

Maybe the wolf has thought that through already, and maybe not.

[Gwathagor]

It doesn't make a lot of difference since I'm not a rep, but I'm most suspicious of Green, sally, and, to a lesser extent, Ilya.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Real quickly- I wouldn't be too concerned about Sally voicing a desire to lynch a likely innocent Gil. I've been tempted too. Think of this- what if we just leave him around and then we get down to the final day, when there are a total of three villagers left. In a normal game two Ordos can lynch one WW. But in this game, only Reps can lynch. Which means when there are only two Ordos the WW can just sit on his Rep vote and the game is over. So, Gil or not, our last chance will be the day before.

So if we subtract an innocent Gil, that would put the day before at one WW and three Ordos, which is just fine. So Gil doesn't help the tally at all. Keeping him around does not add an extra day of life to the village.

Okay, I admit I didn't think it that far. You're right. So, sorry sally, but I still suspect you the most.


edit: xed with Gwathensen

[Thinlómien]

I should vote soon-ish and I feel like voting sally, but something keeps me from just doing it... Oh well...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Tadaaa!

I am back after some fun hours playing association football (just to avoid confusion)

I have already looked over the posts that have been made since I left and I thought I spottet a thing or two that I found interesting, I will report back to you about that soon.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay. My paper's done and I just got back from Lincoln, where I got my picture taken about 150 times. Sally's not a pretty girl. Sally doesn't like pictures. But Sally's a theater minor and they're required, so Sally had to go.


Oh wait. This isn't my blog!


Anyway, I'm back and still a tad cranky. Seems that I may be in for a lynching. If so, have at it. Seems every time I'm an innocent I try to help and end up dead. I'm all for tradition, so enjoy yourselves. (Told you. Cranky.)


Moving on. I'll go redo my analysis of Nerwen (so she'll see it all in one post and be happy again) and I'll see what else I can get done. If I do end up dying, I may as well make myself useful to the village, yeah? Because apparently making sure we don't have a non-existent player around on the last Day isn't being helpful. But never fear! I shall try to assist.


And then take a nap. Because I'd like to sleep at some point.

[/crabbiness]


ETA: No, I'm not crabby because of the game, by the way. Just so no one here thinks I'm mad at them. I'm just terribly sleep-deprived and such business.

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, I'm sure you can all guess what I was?


Gwath's last statement. Awkward much?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Gwath

Because in that post I am associating myself with and practically defending someone who I (were I a wolf as you suggest) would have known would be revealed as a wolf upon her imminent lynching.

Gwath, just because you defended a wolf when she already had been sentenced to lynching does not necessarily mean you are innocent. For all we know, it could've been some sort of bluff.

[the phantom]

The internet was down in the lab at work, so yeah... haven't been able to read or do anything at all.

On a purely instinctual level I would like to lynch Gwath and Rune, leaving me as the only male in the entire community. But I don't think those instincts have anything to do with Werewolf.

As I said, I'm not sure if I'm thinking correctly on Sally due to meeting her in RL, because in RL, even though I was trying not to talk about the game or read her, she seemed rather innocent. But then maybe I'm wrong because I was actively trying to sabotage my readings on her. Anyway, were I a Rep I wouldn't have the guts to lynch her.

I admit that events have put Gwath into a rather suspicious position, so I can hardly object to lynching him.

I need to read over Rune. I have no leanings on him currently.

Lommy is being ususually nice to me. So naturally I'm won over and think she should live forever.

Now I'm going to try and read a little.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think sally seems a bit too apologetic, nervous and nice. If she's the last wolf that's understandble as there's quite a lot of pressure on her. On the other hand, she has said she's really stressed and that may affect her behaviour, so her nervousness doesn't necessarily mean anything.

It's funny, I don't suspect Rune at all, even though I have absolutely no reason to trust him. He baffles me a little by differing in his opinions from the rest of the village. That's nicely refreshing. (But... I'm wondering - do I recall correctly that that has been the trademark of a wolvish Rune actually? Hmmm... I have to keep an eye on him.) I can't really bring myself to distrust Brinn either... I guess it's just gut-feeling, then. And as for Nerwen, I feel my non-suspicion of her is just a bit more reasonable.

The others I suspect to some degree. Sally the most. Greenie seems kind of genuine, but I can so very well see her as a bold wolf. Rune's suspicion of Gwath strikes me as misguided, I think Gwath is probably an ordo... but I probably think that just because he's flown completely under my radar. I'm really unsure what to think of Kath and Ilya.

As for Gil, I think this pretty much sums it up:

Of course, the moddesses could just have picked his kill for him, but that would be totally unfair...

As for sally's eagerness to lynch Gil, it is indeed a bit weird. Why couldn't it have waited? The numbers favour us at the moment, so we could have afforded a double lynch, yes. But why make it if the subject is probably innocent? Why not wait and see a few Days? Like now Kath has provided us with a point that almost proves Gil's innocence. But an evil sally could have wanted to reduce the number of the innocents, for now that she has been left alone, she will have to walk a rocky path to win. Also, although she explained it, her enthusiasm to take part in the lynch of morm and Nog looks a bit questionable indeed... I don't think it's a bad idea to lynch her toDay, as we have plenty of Days to try. And honestly, I think if we don't lynch sally sooner, she will become an enigma later.

I understand the sentiment perfectly, but I think an innocent sally could ("could", not "would") have voted me nevertheless, which in turn could have made me trust her more. This being like this, sally just strikes me as more nervous than before. Also, she could have simply said "Lommy will vote me and I don't want to die so I'll vote someone else" but now she masks it as "lynching me won't profit the village", which makes me raise eyebrows. Because, really, we can very well afford losing an ordo right now.

Oh, that's true. However, her PM inbox could just have been full so that she wouldn't have received the wolf PMs.... so we can't rule her out either.

Greenie was a bold wolf in her very first game, so I wouldn't put anything past her.


edit: xed with Gwath

I cut of the start of the post as it did not strike me as odd. . .

Anyways Lommy, I find it slightly disturbing the way you change your opinion so fast. I thought you did not suspect me at all, only that you thought my case against Gwathagor was "misguided", but now me and him are your top suspects and Greenie has totaly disapeared from your list of suspects.

Frankly that makes very little sense and I am looking forward to the explanation, I could have understood it if it was my case against Gwath that had made you suspicous, but surely it cannot be the case since he is your top suspect as well.

I won't judge you on this alone as it is very easy to "see" a werewolf when you yourself is their target, but it does seem like you are going for the easy kills. Kath, Brinn, Greenie and Ilya would be very hard to get lynched, me and Nerwen less so and Gwath is the most likely lynch candidate of all.

Of course you can never suest Gil as you wanted Sally lynched for that very reason, in genneral your whole reasoning about why wolves would kill Gil made little sense.
-------------------------

Anyways I am under a lot of time pressiure right now, I need to get this paper about English Trade Unions in the 1800's done. . . If I don't I will fail my class as my examination is based on it.

I will be at the computer most of the day, but I won't have time to check in that often.

sorry

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Oh I forgot to add:

I feel it is about time I became a representative!

[Thinlómien]

Rune - my change of mind is simply because I've been thinking about things and because some of my feelings have changed. I cannot explain it any better.

If I was the last wolf, I can't see any benefit for me in going for the easy targets intentionally. I would have no fellows who could get lynched, and I'm currently if not the most trusted person in this village, then at least one of them, and thus I wouldn't probably be worried of getting myself lynched either. In fact, a sudden change of mind would be the last thing I would do, as it might arouse suspicions (like it just did).

(Anyway, I think we two are really hopeless, I think everytime one of us starts suspecting the other the suspicions is immediately returned. Reminds me of our very first ww game, awww. )

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Rune - my change of mind is simply because I've been thinking about things and because some of my feelings have changed. I cannot explain it any better.

If I was the last wolf, I can't see any benefit for me in going for the easy targets intentionally. I would have no fellows who could get lynched, and I'm currently if not the most trusted person in this village, then at least one of them, and thus I wouldn't probably be worried of getting myself lynched either. In fact, a sudden change of mind would be the last thing I would do, as it might arouse suspicions (like it just did).

(Anyway, I think we two are really hopeless, I think everytime one of us starts suspecting the other the suspicions is immediately returned. Reminds me of our very first ww game, awww. )

That is a rather poor reasoning, but even so I think you should have mentioned it in your post. . . It just seems weird to make such radical changes and not offer any sort of explanation.

I don't know if you have noticed, but there is gennerally not alot of acusations flying arround. . .
And btw Kath is way more trusted than you!

I think it would be a benefit for you, because if you stood out from the croud then you would naturaly gather attention. If you on the other hand go for the easy targets and don't look like you are just following what others have said, you get too look very innocent.

You make a good point about why a sudden change of mind might not be desirable for you as a wolf, I was aware of this already before I wrote my first post and I have thought much about it since. The result is inconclusive, maybe it was simply a slip, maybe you thought it would gather so much support that people did not find it odd or maybe you simply did not think people would notice.

Remember I am not crying "wolf wolf" I am just saying that your actions are very odd and naturaly that makes me keep an eye on you and put you on my list of possible lynch candidates.

(In our first game it was just a case of you being very silly)

[Nerwen]

Hello, all. I've had a really bad headache– that's why I didn't post earlier.

[Brinniel]

Hello all, I thought I would post real quick before hopping on a plane. As I already mentioned on the admin thread, I'm leaving town for Thanksgiving and won't be around much toDay. I don't know how often I'll be able to get online, probably not a lot...so don't expect much more than a few posts from me (and I notice Greenie seems to be in much of a similar situation).

Anyways, just a couple comments...

As of now, the person who continues to stand out as most suspicious to me is Gwath. His defenses didn't make me feel any better about him. Particularly this one:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Well...I think that if I am going to be lynched, it should be done toMorrow. I've hardly been involved so far (I don't like big villages), and my death at this point would provide very little information regarding other players. Let me interact some more - I'll make a concerted effort - and that way my death will create a point of reference from which to judge other players.

Obviously, I'd rather not die at all, but since the idea seems to be something of a popular phenomenon, I'd at least like to be useful to the village in my demise.

In short, don't tie me up with sally!

First off, how did he know there was going to be a toMorrow? And secondly, this entire defense just sounds like a desperate plea from a wolf to stay alive one more Day.

I still find Rune to be a bit suspicious, but I wonder if it's only because I happen to disagree with everything he says. So I'm a little hesitant with these suspicions I have, but I'd still like to keep an eye on him.

Everyone else is still mostly a question mark to me. My thoughts haven't changed all that much since yesterDay, so I won't bother making another list. If I actually had time to take a closer look at everybody I would, but I have to finish getting ready and run to the airport shortly.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hello, all. I've had a really bad headache– that's why I didn't post earlier.

Poor dear. Hope you are better now.

Hmmm. Rune raises a good point against Lommy - but then, her defense sounds reasonable and innocentish as well, so that exchange left me with little new.

A list, then, with the emphasis on who I could vote for rep. Don't know how much is new, but anyway. The names are in an order of preference, at least sort of. In the latter list the order is obviously from least pleasant choice to the most, as you can judge by Gil's position on the list.

I COULD VOTE AS REP:
Lommy
Rune
Nerwen
Kath
Brinn
These are all sensible, innocentish people who I don't suspect. (Innocentish people who I don't suspect? How surprising. ) I'd prefer Lommy or Rune as they are the ones I'm most certain of, but I wouldn't feel bad voting one of the latter three either.

I WON'T VOTE AS REP:
Gil-Galad - I think it's quite obvious.
Gwathy - I don't trust him at the moment and I have no idea what he thinks about people. Therefore a clear no. On the other hand given a rep status he would have to voice an opinion, but I don't like to start gambling. I rather vote for a rep who I feel more comfortable with.
Ilya - I have no read about her at all so I wouldn't feel very comfortable with voting her as my rep.


EDIT: x-ed with Brinn!