T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Macalaure]

I think I will vote for one of the people Legate thought was innocent toDay. Rune, Brego, Nerwen, or Aganzir. But which one?

[Macalaure]

I still wonder whether Rune's interaction with Brinn on Day1 might have been staged and his involvement in the Durelin lynch is suspicious. Then again, so is Lari's and Miri's (and both were more sneaky), and I won't vote for either toDay. What makes me hesitate is that Rune is quite his usual self: a bit grumpy and utterly unafraid to speak his mind.

Beregond looks so innocent to me that it's starting to frighten me. As I said before, if he's a wraith, he's one slick specimen. Even most experienced players couldn't do it like him. I can't help but be wary of him, though.

We still haven't seen much of Nerwen since RL is limiting her. She hasn't done anything to make me suspicious, but hasn't really done anything to make me think she's very innocent either. She would be a bit of a shot in the dark.

Aganzir, nah. She's the only contributor of her level of volume left, and it'd be a shame to lynch her with reasons as vague as mine (even though I think I'm on the right track). Also, seeing the wraiths' appetite for loud villagers (Nog, Rikae, Leggit), she will probably be killed toNight and I'm unwilling to do their dirty work.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I think I will vote for one of the people Legate thought was innocent toDay. Rune, Brego, Nerwen, or Aganzir. But which one?

Ahem. Macalaure, that looks rather as if you're paving the way for a random lynch.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Okay, you're not, then.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ahem. Macalaure, that looks rather as if you're paving the way for a random lynch.

Nah. I will give Legate's suspects the benefit of the doubt toDay and won't vote for Miri or Menel (well, and Lari). Unfortunately, even with the narrowed field, I'm very unsure. I can't see anyone of the living as clearly wraith-ish, even though even two of them are left. I'm a bit dissatisfied with myself in this village, I can tell you.

[Macalaure]

Not confident about this vote, but out of my list of four, she just seems the least innocent.

++Nerwen

I might be around later to rethink and retract.

[Nerwen]

Thoughts:

Lari– well, we won't know what to think if she's alive toMorrow... but we still can't risk lynching her now.

Aganzir: Built up a case on Legate, so unlikely to have killed him last Night; probably wouldn't go after Mac so hard if she were a wraith, in case he really is Ferny.

Rune: One of the Durelin-voters (and look, it's very unlikely none of them were wraiths). Today seems a little too quick to dismiss Lari's claim.

Mira: Another Durelin-voter. Has seemed vaguely sneaky on and off... could be just a nervous newbie, though.

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

Mac: Another cobbler-candidate. Whether he is Ferny or not, the wraiths may think he is, which would explain why he's still alive.

In fact, it would really help to know if the wraiths and Ferny are aware of each other's identities or not. I have reason to think Ferny isn't, or wasn't a couple of Days ago (explanation next post).

Finally, there Beregond, whom I keep forgetting about. Seems very innocent ... as Mac says, almost scarily so... but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Hey!

[Nerwen]

Unfortunately, I can't find the quote I was looking for: but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps?

[Nerwen]

Am I just taking it personally, or does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil?

[Nerwen]

I thought, in his last post but two, he was saying he wasn't going to vote people just because Legate found them innocent.

I'm wondering: is he Ferny, and is he afraid to vote anyone who looks remotely wolfish?

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, though I have nothing solid to go on, I'm definitely getting a "not good" feeling from Nerwen at this point, probably due to her being overly suspicious of the recently-revealed Ranger and my recognition of her messages (anything about my post yesterday that doesn't fit with my statement today?)

I don't know...

More stuff: Reviewing Day One, I find that Rune actually voted for Brinniel that day, not Durelin. Oops

Speaking of Day 1, let's see what the voting reveals, now that we know more about who's who.

Rune's vote does not look like something a wraith would do, as it put Brinn in a tie with Gollum for a lynching.

Agan's vote reveals little, as it was really early in the game.

Mirandir voted for Thinlomien, bringing the total lynchees to three. I don't think this is the vote of a wraith, as one of them would be more likely to vote Gollum into the lead ahead of Brinn.

Beregond tosses in a bizarre vote for Mac, bringing the total lynchees to four and still fails to save Brinn.

At this point Nerwen steps in and votes Gollum squarely into the lead. Mac the possible cobbler and Brinn the wraith follow her lead, putting Gollum far into the lead.

The most wraithlike individual appears to be Nerwen, who cast a deciding vote for saving Brinn, with Aganzir second as her vote left no tracks one way or another.

Well, that will be it for now. Based on the voting:

--Rune Son of Bjarne

++Nerwen

See you in the morning, I hope.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

That's what comes of having to read through several Day's posts in a hurry. I had the impression he'd said it earlier... but if it's only yesterDay it doesn't mean so much.

[Lariren Shadow]

Post...anyone?

Vote count:
Menel -> Rune
Rune -> Mira
Mac -> Nerwen
Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen

Nerwen 2, Mira 1

Edit: x-posted with Nerwen

Edit2: Fixed vote count

[Nerwen]

Actually, Menel's previous vote was for Mira.

So it's Mira 1, me 2. I will vote Mira to save myself if need be, but I'd prefer not to, as there just doesn't seem to be enough of a case against her.

As for what Menel is saying about me: well, I don't tend to automatically trust gifted reveals, and yours, Lari, came at an odd time. And I voted Gollum on Day One because Lommy seemed innocent, and Gollum looked the most suspicious of the other candidates. That's all.

EDIT: X'd with Lari.

[Beregond]

Thank you, Mac and Nerwen - I wish I was a wraith and able to receive your entire compliments! As it is I'll just be happy to remain so seemingly innocent.

And great analysis, Menel. That's some good stuff, looking back on day 1. Here's the complete "chronology"

Greenie -> Gollum
Lommy -> Aganzir
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari
Legate -> Mac
Shasta -> Lommy
Nog -> Gollum
Menel -> Mac
Rune -> Brinn
Fea -> Brinn
Mirandir -> Lommy
Beregond -> Mac
Durelin -> Lommy
Sally -> Mac
Lari -> Durelin
Rikae -> Lommy
Nerwen -> Gollum
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum
Rikae --Lommy -> Gollum


It makes Rune look pretty innocent (unless as cobbler). Mac can be accused simply of saving himself. Miri isn't excused for not voting Gollum - it was her first day and first vote. Menel, your vote can't be read either way since at that point no wraith was in danger. Agan is unreadable. Lari too.

Nerwen...yes, this doesn't look great for her. In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

To rehash, from looking at day 1...

INNOCENT:

Rune
Berry


NO READ:

Miri
Mac
Menel
Agan
Lari


SUSPICIOUS:

Nerwen


We have to keep in mind that Frodo wasn't yet stabbed, and Ferny likely as in the dark as anyone. So my conclusion is that Nerwen is most likely to be a wraith. Miri, Mac, and Rune are frontrunners for the positions of henchman and turncloak. None of the others are completely off my list by any means, even Agan.

For the record I tend to believe Lari's claim. Either way she shouldn't be voted off the island.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Beregond

In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

No it isn't! It most definitely isn't! It's just an easy way out.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Menel

Lynching a wraith-to-be if xe were revealed is a bad idea, Agan? It may be a bit harsh, but that would at least keep the number of wraiths from increasing.

Yes. A really bad idea. Firstly, if Frodo had revealed, it doesn't seem very likely the wolves would have attacked xem. Secondly, if they for some reason had, we would have known who Frodo was and could have lynched xem only then. Up until that xe would have served as a known innocent. I fail to see why xe should have been lynched before xe was turned.

Originally Posted by Menel

the strange need to refute everything Mac says seems unusual as well.

You can consider it a tradition.

Originally Posted by Menel

Ah, I see that Lari has confirmed what I suspected about her from yesterDay.

Hmph and I thought it was a cobblerish remark.

Originally Posted by Menel

Answer to Aganzir: I just ment it is easier when you can find a pattern in the voting. . .if it appears random you can use it to very little.

That's what I thought but I don't think wolves vote in any special pattern very often so I wasn't sure I had understood it correctly.

Originally Posted by Mac

What? If she's not the real ranger and the real ranger reveals himself, he'll be dead. If he stays hidden he can still make a save and buy us an additional Day! Then we would lynch Lari and probably find her to be the cobbler and nothing is won.

Okay that's true. Although I don't see how you ended up with the cobbler conclusion - a suspected wolf could try to pretend to be the ranger as well. And it wouldn't matter even if we lynched the cobbler because we have to get one baddie today, or at latest tomorrow, but then it'll be somewhat more difficult.

I am a bit baffled about Mac wanting to vote one of the people I consider innocent.

I wonder if a Menelwolf would have left Lari alive after figuring what she meant with the Sagittarius comment. Unless he was a wolf who thought it was a cobblerish remark or vice versa, but the former seems unlikely to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

I said the same about Lari last game so being a newbie doesn't mean getting a free pass from me anymore.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps?

It's clear from your suggestions for night kills
The lights are not all on upstairs
But we're talking lyches and victory
Your options are far beyond compare

Originally Posted by Nerwen

does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil?

Yes. I'd much rather lynch Mac himself than Nerwen who is one of the most innocent-looking here.

I don't like Menel's analysis. Using day 1 as a grounds for one's vote seems a bit far-fetched at this point of the game. First Mac votes for an innocentish person and then Menel comes up with several points against her concerning her day one behaviour. I don't think Nerwen's vote was suspicious, and it's definitely not her fault if a wolf and the cobbler decide to jump on the bandwagon.

I could vote for Menel, Mira, or Mac.

I'll go make some tea. Back in a few minutes.