T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 09:04 PM

Thoughts:

Lari– well, we won't know what to think if she's alive toMorrow... but we still can't risk lynching her now.

Aganzir: Built up a case on Legate, so unlikely to have killed him last Night; probably wouldn't go after Mac so hard if she were a wraith, in case he really is Ferny.

Rune: One of the Durelin-voters (and look, it's very unlikely none of them were wraiths). Today seems a little too quick to dismiss Lari's claim.

Mira: Another Durelin-voter. Has seemed vaguely sneaky on and off... could be just a nervous newbie, though.

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

Mac: Another cobbler-candidate. Whether he is Ferny or not, the wraiths may think he is, which would explain why he's still alive.

In fact, it would really help to know if the wraiths and Ferny are aware of each other's identities or not. I have reason to think Ferny isn't, or wasn't a couple of Days ago (explanation next post).

Finally, there Beregond, whom I keep forgetting about. Seems very innocent ... as Mac says, almost scarily so... but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. Hey!

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 09:32 PM

Unfortunately, I can't find the quote I was looking for: but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps?

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 09:37 PM

Am I just taking it personally, or does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil?

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 09:43 PM

I thought, in his last post but two, he was saying he wasn't going to vote people just because Legate found them innocent.

I'm wondering: is he Ferny, and is he afraid to vote anyone who looks remotely wolfish?

Meneltarmacil · 02-03-2009, 09:58 PM

OK, though I have nothing solid to go on, I'm definitely getting a "not good" feeling from Nerwen at this point, probably due to her being overly suspicious of the recently-revealed Ranger and my recognition of her messages (anything about my post yesterday that doesn't fit with my statement today?)

I don't know...

More stuff: Reviewing Day One, I find that Rune actually voted for Brinniel that day, not Durelin. Oops

Speaking of Day 1, let's see what the voting reveals, now that we know more about who's who.

Rune's vote does not look like something a wraith would do, as it put Brinn in a tie with Gollum for a lynching.

Agan's vote reveals little, as it was really early in the game.

Mirandir voted for Thinlomien, bringing the total lynchees to three. I don't think this is the vote of a wraith, as one of them would be more likely to vote Gollum into the lead ahead of Brinn.

Beregond tosses in a bizarre vote for Mac, bringing the total lynchees to four and still fails to save Brinn.

At this point Nerwen steps in and votes Gollum squarely into the lead. Mac the possible cobbler and Brinn the wraith follow her lead, putting Gollum far into the lead.

The most wraithlike individual appears to be Nerwen, who cast a deciding vote for saving Brinn, with Aganzir second as her vote left no tracks one way or another.

Well, that will be it for now. Based on the voting:

--Rune Son of Bjarne

++Nerwen

See you in the morning, I hope.

Lariren Shadow · 02-03-2009, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

That's what comes of having to read through several Day's posts in a hurry. I had the impression he'd said it earlier... but if it's only yesterDay it doesn't mean so much.

Lariren Shadow · 02-03-2009, 10:37 PM

Post...anyone?

Vote count:
Menel -> Rune
Rune -> Mira
Mac -> Nerwen
Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen

Nerwen 2, Mira 1

Edit: x-posted with Nerwen

Edit2: Fixed vote count

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 10:47 PM

Actually, Menel's previous vote was for Mira.

So it's Mira 1, me 2. I will vote Mira to save myself if need be, but I'd prefer not to, as there just doesn't seem to be enough of a case against her.

As for what Menel is saying about me: well, I don't tend to automatically trust gifted reveals, and yours, Lari, came at an odd time. And I voted Gollum on Day One because Lommy seemed innocent, and Gollum looked the most suspicious of the other candidates. That's all.

EDIT: X'd with Lari.

Beregond · 02-03-2009, 10:49 PM

Thank you, Mac and Nerwen - I wish I was a wraith and able to receive your entire compliments! As it is I'll just be happy to remain so seemingly innocent.

And great analysis, Menel. That's some good stuff, looking back on day 1. Here's the complete "chronology"

Greenie -> Gollum
Lommy -> Aganzir
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari
Legate -> Mac
Shasta -> Lommy
Nog -> Gollum
Menel -> Mac
Rune -> Brinn
Fea -> Brinn
Mirandir -> Lommy
Beregond -> Mac
Durelin -> Lommy
Sally -> Mac
Lari -> Durelin
Rikae -> Lommy
Nerwen -> Gollum
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum
Rikae --Lommy -> Gollum

It makes Rune look pretty innocent (unless as cobbler). Mac can be accused simply of saving himself. Miri isn't excused for not voting Gollum - it was her first day and first vote. Menel, your vote can't be read either way since at that point no wraith was in danger. Agan is unreadable. Lari too.

Nerwen...yes, this doesn't look great for her. In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

To rehash, from looking at day 1...

INNOCENT:

Rune
Berry

NO READ:

Miri
Mac
Menel
Agan
Lari

SUSPICIOUS:

Nerwen

We have to keep in mind that Frodo wasn't yet stabbed, and Ferny likely as in the dark as anyone. So my conclusion is that Nerwen is most likely to be a wraith. Miri, Mac, and Rune are frontrunners for the positions of henchman and turncloak. None of the others are completely off my list by any means, even Agan.

For the record I tend to believe Lari's claim. Either way she shouldn't be voted off the island.

Aganzir · 02-03-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beregond

In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

No it isn't! It most definitely isn't! It's just an easy way out.

Beregond · 02-03-2009, 11:13 PM

Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet.

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 11:18 PM

This is just what I was afraid of...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beregond

Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet.

After Mac and Menel's recent performance, I should say there's quite a good case for voting either of them.

Aganzir · 02-03-2009, 11:18 PM

Well analysing day 1 voting on a day we have to get either a wolf or the cobbler seems rather mischievous to me. If you formed your opinion based on voting every day, it'd be alright, but picking just one day, not to mention the first, and using it to justify a vote for someone I think is a very likely innocent...

I think I'd be willing to vote for Menel.

edit: xed with Nerwen. Yeah I could go for Mac as well.

02-03-2009, 09:04 PM	#1
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Thoughts: Lari– well, we won't know what to think if she's alive toMorrow... but we still can't risk lynching her now. Aganzir: Built up a case on Legate, so unlikely to have killed him last Night; probably wouldn't go after Mac so hard if she were a wraith, in case he really is Ferny. Rune: One of the Durelin-voters (and look, it's very unlikely none of them were wraiths). Today seems a little too quick to dismiss Lari's claim. Mira: Another Durelin-voter. Has seemed vaguely sneaky on and off... could be just a nervous newbie, though. Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?) Mac: Another cobbler-candidate. Whether he is Ferny or not, the wraiths may think he is, which would explain why he's still alive. In fact, it would really help to know if the wraiths and Ferny are aware of each other's identities or not. I have reason to think Ferny isn't, or wasn't a couple of Days ago (explanation next post). Finally, there Beregond, whom I keep forgetting about. Seems very innocent ... as Mac says, almost scarily so... but if he's a newbie villain, all I can say is he's doing a fine job and probably deserves to win. EDIT: X'd with Mac. Hey! __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

02-03-2009, 09:32 PM	#2
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Unfortunately, I can't find the quote I was looking for: but somewhere during Sally's closing variety act she said something about Ferny's suggestions being funny... trying to tell him some of them were wraiths, perhaps? __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

02-03-2009, 09:37 PM	#3
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Am I just taking it personally, or does Mac's vote for me look kind of evil? __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

02-03-2009, 09:43 PM	#4
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	I thought, in his last post but two, he was saying he wasn't going to vote people just because Legate found them innocent. I'm wondering: is he Ferny, and is he afraid to vote anyone who looks remotely wolfish? __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

02-03-2009, 09:58 PM	#5
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	Jusht one more beer, pleashe. No, make that hic two, No wait, three. passes out OK, though I have nothing solid to go on, I'm definitely getting a "not good" feeling from Nerwen at this point, probably due to her being overly suspicious of the recently-revealed Ranger and my recognition of her messages (anything about my post yesterday that doesn't fit with my statement today?) I don't know... More stuff: Reviewing Day One, I find that Rune actually voted for Brinniel that day, not Durelin. Oops Speaking of Day 1, let's see what the voting reveals, now that we know more about who's who. Rune's vote does not look like something a wraith would do, as it put Brinn in a tie with Gollum for a lynching. Agan's vote reveals little, as it was really early in the game. Mirandir voted for Thinlomien, bringing the total lynchees to three. I don't think this is the vote of a wraith, as one of them would be more likely to vote Gollum into the lead ahead of Brinn. Beregond tosses in a bizarre vote for Mac, bringing the total lynchees to four and still fails to save Brinn. At this point Nerwen steps in and votes Gollum squarely into the lead. Mac the possible cobbler and Brinn the wraith follow her lead, putting Gollum far into the lead. The most wraithlike individual appears to be Nerwen, who cast a deciding vote for saving Brinn, with Aganzir second as her vote left no tracks one way or another. Well, that will be it for now. Based on the voting: --Rune Son of Bjarne ++Nerwen See you in the morning, I hope. __________________ I ♣ baby seals.

02-03-2009, 10:37 PM	#8
Lariren Shadow Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Where the day meets the night Posts: 607	Post...anyone? Vote count: Menel -> Rune Rune -> Mira Mac -> Nerwen Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen Nerwen 2, Mira 1 Edit: x-posted with Nerwen Edit2: Fixed vote count __________________ Choose treachery, its more fun! Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-03-2009 at 10:44 PM. Reason: x-posting

02-03-2009, 10:47 PM	#9
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Actually, Menel's previous vote was for Mira. So it's Mira 1, me 2. I will vote Mira to save myself if need be, but I'd prefer not to, as there just doesn't seem to be enough of a case against her. As for what Menel is saying about me: well, I don't tend to automatically trust gifted reveals, and yours, Lari, came at an odd time. And I voted Gollum on Day One because Lommy seemed innocent, and Gollum looked the most suspicious of the other candidates. That's all. EDIT: X'd with Lari. __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

02-03-2009, 10:49 PM	#10
Beregond Playful Ghoul Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 1,251	Thank you, Mac and Nerwen - I wish I was a wraith and able to receive your entire compliments! As it is I'll just be happy to remain so seemingly innocent. And great analysis, Menel. That's some good stuff, looking back on day 1. Here's the complete "chronology" Greenie -> Gollum Lommy -> Aganzir Gollum -> Brinn Aganzir -> Lari Legate -> Mac Shasta -> Lommy Nog -> Gollum Menel -> Mac Rune -> Brinn Fea -> Brinn Mirandir -> Lommy Beregond -> Mac Durelin -> Lommy Sally -> Mac Lari -> Durelin Rikae -> Lommy Nerwen -> Gollum Mac -> Gollum Brinn -> Gollum Rikae --Lommy -> Gollum It makes Rune look pretty innocent (unless as cobbler). Mac can be accused simply of saving himself. Miri isn't excused for not voting Gollum - it was her first day and first vote. Menel, your vote can't be read either way since at that point no wraith was in danger. Agan is unreadable. Lari too. Nerwen...yes, this doesn't look great for her. In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on. To rehash, from looking at day 1... INNOCENT: Rune Berry NO READ: Miri Mac Menel Agan Lari SUSPICIOUS: Nerwen We have to keep in mind that Frodo wasn't yet stabbed, and Ferny likely as in the dark as anyone. So my conclusion is that Nerwen is most likely to be a wraith. Miri, Mac, and Rune are frontrunners for the positions of henchman and turncloak. None of the others are completely off my list by any means, even Agan. For the record I tend to believe Lari's claim. Either way she shouldn't be voted off the island. __________________ "Hope and memory shall live still in some hidden valley where the grass is green." Last edited by Beregond; 02-03-2009 at 10:50 PM. Reason: xed with Nerwen

02-03-2009, 11:13 PM	#12
Beregond Playful Ghoul Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 1,251	Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet. __________________ "Hope and memory shall live still in some hidden valley where the grass is green."

02-03-2009, 11:18 PM	#14
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Well analysing day 1 voting on a day we have to get either a wolf or the cobbler seems rather mischievous to me. If you formed your opinion based on voting every day, it'd be alright, but picking just one day, not to mention the first, and using it to justify a vote for someone I think is a very likely innocent... I think I'd be willing to vote for Menel. edit: xed with Nerwen. Yeah I could go for Mac as well. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.