T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lariren Shadow · 02-03-2009, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Menel: In the opposite direction, seemed rather too quick to announce that he knew Lari's identity all along, etc (however he did make that "Sagittarius" comment ages ago). Was also too quick to believe Brinn, and made that odd "on our side" remark. (Ferny trying to signal to the wraiths?)

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

His post about it was yesterDay, not ages ago. I don't know, but he only said he figured it out yesterDay.

That's what comes of having to read through several Day's posts in a hurry. I had the impression he'd said it earlier... but if it's only yesterDay it doesn't mean so much.

Lariren Shadow · 02-03-2009, 10:37 PM

Post...anyone?

Vote count:
Menel -> Rune
Rune -> Mira
Mac -> Nerwen
Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen

Nerwen 2, Mira 1

Edit: x-posted with Nerwen

Edit2: Fixed vote count

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 10:47 PM

Actually, Menel's previous vote was for Mira.

So it's Mira 1, me 2. I will vote Mira to save myself if need be, but I'd prefer not to, as there just doesn't seem to be enough of a case against her.

As for what Menel is saying about me: well, I don't tend to automatically trust gifted reveals, and yours, Lari, came at an odd time. And I voted Gollum on Day One because Lommy seemed innocent, and Gollum looked the most suspicious of the other candidates. That's all.

EDIT: X'd with Lari.

Beregond · 02-03-2009, 10:49 PM

Thank you, Mac and Nerwen - I wish I was a wraith and able to receive your entire compliments! As it is I'll just be happy to remain so seemingly innocent.

And great analysis, Menel. That's some good stuff, looking back on day 1. Here's the complete "chronology"

Greenie -> Gollum
Lommy -> Aganzir
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari
Legate -> Mac
Shasta -> Lommy
Nog -> Gollum
Menel -> Mac
Rune -> Brinn
Fea -> Brinn
Mirandir -> Lommy
Beregond -> Mac
Durelin -> Lommy
Sally -> Mac
Lari -> Durelin
Rikae -> Lommy
Nerwen -> Gollum
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum
Rikae --Lommy -> Gollum

It makes Rune look pretty innocent (unless as cobbler). Mac can be accused simply of saving himself. Miri isn't excused for not voting Gollum - it was her first day and first vote. Menel, your vote can't be read either way since at that point no wraith was in danger. Agan is unreadable. Lari too.

Nerwen...yes, this doesn't look great for her. In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

To rehash, from looking at day 1...

INNOCENT:

Rune
Berry

NO READ:

Miri
Mac
Menel
Agan
Lari

SUSPICIOUS:

Nerwen

We have to keep in mind that Frodo wasn't yet stabbed, and Ferny likely as in the dark as anyone. So my conclusion is that Nerwen is most likely to be a wraith. Miri, Mac, and Rune are frontrunners for the positions of henchman and turncloak. None of the others are completely off my list by any means, even Agan.

For the record I tend to believe Lari's claim. Either way she shouldn't be voted off the island.

Aganzir · 02-03-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beregond

In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on.

No it isn't! It most definitely isn't! It's just an easy way out.

Beregond · 02-03-2009, 11:13 PM

Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet.

Nerwen · 02-03-2009, 11:18 PM

This is just what I was afraid of...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beregond

Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet.

After Mac and Menel's recent performance, I should say there's quite a good case for voting either of them.

Aganzir · 02-03-2009, 11:18 PM

Well analysing day 1 voting on a day we have to get either a wolf or the cobbler seems rather mischievous to me. If you formed your opinion based on voting every day, it'd be alright, but picking just one day, not to mention the first, and using it to justify a vote for someone I think is a very likely innocent...

I think I'd be willing to vote for Menel.

edit: xed with Nerwen. Yeah I could go for Mac as well.

Aganzir · 02-03-2009, 11:24 PM

Is there anyone else around but Nerwen, Berry & me?

02-03-2009, 10:37 PM	#3
Lariren Shadow Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Where the day meets the night Posts: 607	Post...anyone? Vote count: Menel -> Rune Rune -> Mira Mac -> Nerwen Menel -> --Rune ++Nerwen Nerwen 2, Mira 1 Edit: x-posted with Nerwen Edit2: Fixed vote count __________________ Choose treachery, its more fun! Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-03-2009 at 10:44 PM. Reason: x-posting

02-03-2009, 10:47 PM	#4
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Actually, Menel's previous vote was for Mira. So it's Mira 1, me 2. I will vote Mira to save myself if need be, but I'd prefer not to, as there just doesn't seem to be enough of a case against her. As for what Menel is saying about me: well, I don't tend to automatically trust gifted reveals, and yours, Lari, came at an odd time. And I voted Gollum on Day One because Lommy seemed innocent, and Gollum looked the most suspicious of the other candidates. That's all. EDIT: X'd with Lari. __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

02-03-2009, 10:49 PM	#5
Beregond Playful Ghoul Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 1,251	Thank you, Mac and Nerwen - I wish I was a wraith and able to receive your entire compliments! As it is I'll just be happy to remain so seemingly innocent. And great analysis, Menel. That's some good stuff, looking back on day 1. Here's the complete "chronology" Greenie -> Gollum Lommy -> Aganzir Gollum -> Brinn Aganzir -> Lari Legate -> Mac Shasta -> Lommy Nog -> Gollum Menel -> Mac Rune -> Brinn Fea -> Brinn Mirandir -> Lommy Beregond -> Mac Durelin -> Lommy Sally -> Mac Lari -> Durelin Rikae -> Lommy Nerwen -> Gollum Mac -> Gollum Brinn -> Gollum Rikae --Lommy -> Gollum It makes Rune look pretty innocent (unless as cobbler). Mac can be accused simply of saving himself. Miri isn't excused for not voting Gollum - it was her first day and first vote. Menel, your vote can't be read either way since at that point no wraith was in danger. Agan is unreadable. Lari too. Nerwen...yes, this doesn't look great for her. In a day with few people and no clear suspects it may be enough evidence to go on. To rehash, from looking at day 1... INNOCENT: Rune Berry NO READ: Miri Mac Menel Agan Lari SUSPICIOUS: Nerwen We have to keep in mind that Frodo wasn't yet stabbed, and Ferny likely as in the dark as anyone. So my conclusion is that Nerwen is most likely to be a wraith. Miri, Mac, and Rune are frontrunners for the positions of henchman and turncloak. None of the others are completely off my list by any means, even Agan. For the record I tend to believe Lari's claim. Either way she shouldn't be voted off the island. __________________ "Hope and memory shall live still in some hidden valley where the grass is green." Last edited by Beregond; 02-03-2009 at 10:50 PM. Reason: xed with Nerwen

02-03-2009, 11:13 PM	#7
Beregond Playful Ghoul Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 1,251	Well, maybe I was a little quick on the gun, but I wish I could find something better to go on. I haven't voted yet. __________________ "Hope and memory shall live still in some hidden valley where the grass is green."

02-03-2009, 11:18 PM	#9
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Well analysing day 1 voting on a day we have to get either a wolf or the cobbler seems rather mischievous to me. If you formed your opinion based on voting every day, it'd be alright, but picking just one day, not to mention the first, and using it to justify a vote for someone I think is a very likely innocent... I think I'd be willing to vote for Menel. edit: xed with Nerwen. Yeah I could go for Mac as well. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

02-03-2009, 11:24 PM	#10
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Is there anyone else around but Nerwen, Berry & me? __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.