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#1 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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*achoo*
Oh dear. Well, right off the bat I'm thinking Gwath and Sally look fishy from their votes yesterDay. Though if wolf mates, would they really be that obvious? That whole bit about failing to cast any votes, and our only hope is in following the rules. Is something implied to us as a group, or someone in particular? Or just a bit of story telling? I think I'm going to go search for some anti-dust materials. This place needs a bit of cleaning it seems, wreaking havoc on my sinuses. *achoo*
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#2 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Hmm...Aganzir's death is a bit of a surprise. She obviously wasn't a no trail kill. I wonder why the baddies picked her...
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#3 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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![]() Well. That was one of the weirdest bandwagons ever. I mean it's not only that Kuru's confident lead in the votes was unanimously brought even with four consecutive votes to Nienna. But also, it was not done by Nilp, Form, Fea etc. who have a long history with Kuru and who would have particularly wished to see him alive if there was no major reason to lynch him. Let it be added that even if people oftentimes feel insecure with their voting - especially when they think they have only bad choices to choose from - there's an air of apology-making in the last votes that does raise an eyebrow. All this look fishy indeed. If one could just point one's finger into it. On another topic. What was this yesterDay Nilp and Firefoot? What were you thinking in here? Quote:
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EDIT: X'd with Brinn...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#4 | |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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Here is my current little rundown before I hit the sack for the night.
Alonariel – No idea, has not appeared Brinniel – Faintly suspicious Fea – Always suspicious Firefoot – Definitely suspicious Form – ehhh…not too suspicious at this moment Green – ehhh…also not too suspicious at this moment Gwath – Definitely suspicious Izzy – Really not sure Kent – Suspicious Lari – AWOL Nilp – errr… Nogrod – Faintly suspicious...to my reading seems to have been one of the initial ones to mention Nienna... Sally – Really not sure Shasta – Really not sure Switching it up a little bit, I’m going to analyze some of the ones I’m really not sure about. Izzy – #187 appears #218 – Says Agan is giving Grima too much credit – points out that Grima can only make a gifted fall ill once Says the baddies may be smoother because they are always in touch Says we should worry too much about the extra votes #259 – Says she doesn’t understand why Agan and I are appearing so shifty to everyone else Says Nog looks like himself Says she is tempted to vote Nienna #267 – Votes Nienna I agree with a number of the things she says. She seems quite sensible and reasonable…which in a way I find troubling. Then she voted for Nienna. Sally – #233 – appears, whips us all into shape #250 – Substantive comment is that there wasn’t much to do on Day One Says she will be watching who hordes votes Doesn’t find Grima hunting useful Says that some are more off the wall when they are wolves Comments on how little posting took place on Day One #258 – Says she has no idea who to vote for yet #262 – Wants to review Nienna #266 – Votes Nienna Some useful comments but then ends up voting Nienna. Shasta – #205 – appears, says he is processing events Disappears and doesn’t return. It may be mistaken but my initial instinct is that wolves would post more. I don't think all of these are werewolves (obviously because they are not on my "Suspicious" list) but I definitely think at least one might be. Quote:
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... Last edited by Kuruharan; 04-15-2009 at 12:18 AM. Reason: closed the parenthesis after "Suspicious" list |
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#5 | |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Well, this certainly was an interesting kill. Got me thinking in a certain direction . . . Narrows down my suspicions somewhat.
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But I hardly think you guilty, despite attacking half the village. I don't think you'd be that pointblank had you a hidden life. ![]()
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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#6 | |
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
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Or were the wolves not even thinking about the seer and just decided that Agan was too much of a liability? And as for what I was thinking... a potential seer lead seemed like a really good Day 1 reason to vote Kuru. And if Agan actually had been the seer, I think the wolves would have guessed it... that's a little bit too lucky, to just pick one person basically off the bat, and then be so confident as to put two votes on him, and get it right. Otherwise my vote would have been more or less random... And just so you all know, I probably won't be around much toDay. Wednesdays are busy busy busy. |
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#7 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Has a last minute bandwagon ever worked? Ever!? I'm not saying I was right and y'all messed it up after I went to bed, given I obviously voted somebody who wasn't evil, but really? Nienna? You thought she looked guilty?
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peace
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#8 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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part 2
Consequently, everybody who voted for Nienna looks squeaky clean to me, given that wolves aren't foolish enough to draw attention to themselves so soon. They never are. It's always misguided ordos that bandwagon last minute on a first day.
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peace
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#9 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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part 3
And because almost everybody who's playing knows perfectly well that last minute bandwagons on Day One are almost always (or just always) ineffective, that puts a new slant on the voters: everybody's experienced in this game, minus Alonariel (who's missing) and Kent (who's doing quite well regardless), so everybody should know better.
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peace
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#10 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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part 4
(if it's not a given, I'm posting in fragments so that the internet actually lets me post; long stuff isn't an option)
Consequently, since everybody ought to know better, I'm torn between thinking everybody who voted Nienna (except Nog, for his double-vote, first off) is either basically innocent, or is incredibly brazen.
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peace
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#11 | |||
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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I'm not understanding the reasons why people decided not to vote for Kuru. I'm not saying he looked obviously bad yesterday and you're out of your mind for not voting for him, but I don't get some of the reasons for not voting for him.
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That split vote for Nienna and Kuru was wierd too. Someone who earlier harped about we have to kill someone "for real" and we have to be careful, votes for 2 people on Day 1? Were you trying to propel Nienna to the lynch, or in the very least making your best attempt to save Kuru, without over-committing? Quote:
No offense met Kuru, but I don't care if you only played every 100 years, if you are a baddie would vote you out as soon as possible, Day 1 or not, aren't in werewolf that much or not, shouldn't be a factor. Quote:
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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#12 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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Well sure, Nog. From your perspective you could lump all of us Nienna voters in the fishy category. Then, you'd be fish-ifying yourself.
Brin's saving of Kuru looked genuine. Unless she doesn't normally do that? Gwath's and Sally's votes for Nienna look the most bandwagonish. They seemingly come out of nowhere - as in; literally right after you posted about her. X'd with Kuru.
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#13 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#14 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Of course I'm not saying no one else should vote for that player; it's your own choice. But when I don't have any clear suspects, I will vote to save someone I'd like to see alive longer. At that point, it doesn't really matter if they're acting suspicious. Typically the most suspicious behaving player on Day One (who usually does get lynched) turns out to be an ordo. And of course I'm not going to give people free passes the entire game. I'm not sure about toDay, but certainly by toMorrow everyone is fair game in my book.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#15 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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That is what I was wondering Nog. Because technically you made your vote for Kuru after you voted for Nienna, essentially twice then retracted one of those votes. You wouldn't of been able to vote for Kuru if you hadn't of retracted one from Nienna.
Which brings up something else. You said you thought Nienna was a wolf, and Kuru a cobbler. So why even place a vote for Kuru, when lynching a wolf is of a higher priority?
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#16 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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Okay. Let me put it like this. The last one reaching the highest vote is lynched. Kuru's fifth vote was mine (33 min. before the DL) and Nienna's was the one given by Brinn (3 min. before the DL). Therefore Nienna got lynched because she got her last vote half an hour later than Kuru did. Now how does this relate to the question of me choosing to vote Nienna first and Kuru the second - and what are you trying to imply would have been different or would have made my vote more/less suspicious in your eyes had I done it the other way around? I simply don't see it. But I do understand that you prefer to discuss the voting of other people as yours look so bad... and the thing that worries me a bit as well is that your questions look so... how should one say it in English... factitious, artificial? Or maybe I'm just missing their point? I'll come back to the voting and posting of Day1 a bit later. Quote:
Old werewolf wisdom, part VII: Those who stab you at Night normally rub you nicely during the Day.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#17 | |
Dead Serious
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My difficulty here is that you voted for Nienna... who was admittedly not the most newbie nor the most silent person present yesterDay, but she had a good smattering of both. Now, I suppose it's possible that you saw/see Nienna as a toughened battle-veteran of WW, and given the amount of noise being made yesterday, I suppose she was in the noisy part of the pack... but still... I'm not entirely convinced. It seems to me by your reasoning, Kuru would have been a more logical vote than Nienna. He was an old player, he'd done a lot of talking... What's more, your vote for Nienna was decisive. Granted, you couldn't KNOW you were the final vote (three minutes before the deadline is early for a last vote, by the standards of some games), but you certainly knew you were putting Nienna into contention. So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf? Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#18 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Form's thoughts/suspicions of Brinn:
Duly noted.
And Kent: we keep it fair, in terms of saving newbies at the expense of others, by behaving thusly with all new players. Less experienced players get the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't make for fair individual games, but it does balance out in the long haul.
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peace
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#19 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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This one makes me crazy as I'm not sure whether I should agree with it or think of Form being the suspicious one here:
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The thing that makes me look at this post by Form suspiciously is the bolded part of it. The moral highground of after-wisdom! I need to look at Form a bit more as I'm afraid some of these suspicions may stem from just the fact that we differ on many things in this game and it's easy to read disagreement as suspicious if one is not careful enough. And he makes good points as well, to be sure. The wolves are also perfectly cabable of doing it though. ![]() EDIT X'd with Greenie x2 - oh great!
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#20 | |
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
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So the more I think about it, the odder Nogrod's vote seems to me. He brings Kuru's count up to 5, at the same time giving Nienna her first vote. It seems like if he was only going to vote once, it would have been for Nienna - and I couldn't find that he ever really says he suspects Kuru that much. It almost looks like a vote for Kuru just because Kuru was a "safe" vote because lots of people suspected him so it wouldn't really be suspicious to also vote for him.
It actually seems rather sloppy. I see that Izzy also picked up this thread, but Nogrod mostly just brushed her off. And then this: Quote:
Right now, my inclination is a vote towards Nogrod... I'm a little leery of this, because Nogrod's doing far more talking than a lot of people, so I'm wondering if he doesn't just seem suspicious because there's more to analyze of him than most. My other thought has been that Kent has seemed... a little obsessed... with his newbie status, wanting to be treated fairly and all that... but if he was a wolf I think I'd expect him to play it up differently. I'd really like to see some other people post before I have to vote... but, as I said, at this point it's probably going to be Nog. And if I'm back before the deadline (I'd say there's about a 50% chance), I'll look at what's new and maybe or maybe not change my vote... X-ed with Kent. |
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#21 | |
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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At least Nogrod makes it sound like a very short courtesy and it could just be I have no idea what I'm asking for.
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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#22 | |
Dead Serious
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That being said, Kent, you are officially not on my "probably innocent" list because you haven't made a newbie wolf move. Your reasoning is entirely too reasonable (and, yes, I'm willing to grant you're the author) for me to like it. As with Nogrod, I'm almost more comfortable in this game when there are disagreements to unsettle my gut instinct that someone is on my side. In your case, I have no gut instinct about you, so I'll warily accept your reasonability as a sign I don't want to lynch you today. Sigh... Who do I want to lynch? Brinn--moderate between guilty and not. Nogrod--probably not. Kent--hopefully not. And that's all I've looked at today... I sort of defended Kuru as not being a cobbler, but that doesn't mean he's not a wolf. So far no one looking vote-worthy.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#23 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Cos lists are rather lovely. (Numbers in parentheses are post #s where I drew my conclusion.)
Probably Guilty (My main suspects.) Kuruharan (NIGHT kill! + 311) Brinniel (275) Firefoot (290) Somewhat Worrying (Thinking innocent, but with a soupēon of . . . suspicion. ![]() Formendacil (315) Nogrod (299 & 324) Feanor of the Peredhil (292) Must Watch (Being quite hard to read for now.) Alonariel Lariren Shadow satansaloser2005 Isabellkya Reassuring (Cos I like the way they think.) Kent2010 (300) Shatanis Althreduin (321 & 323) Gwathagor (351) Slacker (Having so much fun with this game.) Nilpaurion Felagund ~*~*~*~ I'm already forming possible Baddie interactions manifesting themselves during the DAY, and all I'm lacking is that one clue. Most likely I'll vote for Kuru, and use my bonus votes while I'm at it, too.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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#24 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#25 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Oh, darn you, Kuru. You just had to go out and make a life-saving post.
![]() (Well, it means I'm finding you sensible and innocent-minded. I'm holding my fire at you, for now.)
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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#26 | |
Dead Serious
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See, that word there would be the crux of the matter. Inactivity, I can understand--it is true that drama students have crazy schedules. Inability, consequently to focus on things and analyse them, that I can also understand. But even so... no vote is truly random--as you say. A semi-random vote is exactly the right way of putting it. But what's the semi-part? There is a reason, undoubtedly, for lighting on me as the recipient of the vote, and this reason is not random. It may be trivial... but it's not random.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#27 | |||||||||||
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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Woo finally...now I can actually get defensive.
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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#28 |
Shade with a Blade
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Like we were trying to save Kuru? Is that what you're saying? Why wouldn't we have just voted Aganzir in that case? Nogrod's case against Kuru seemed to me vastly more substantial (particularly for Day 1) than anything that had been said against Kuruup to that point. Besides, two votes doesn't make a bandwagon.
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Stories and songs. |
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#29 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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I just realised it when Fea finally posted something...
Now in a game organised by the phantom, what do you think are the odds that Fea is not a baddie? Zero. What are the chances she is Thuringwethil? I'd say 75%. ![]() And what she said gives one reason to believe that it is so. The only problem which I have with this interpretation is that it all looks even too easy and straightforward. Kuru-wolf is in trouble and his friend goes and helps him out in the last minute rush - and then Fea-vampire comes cleaning up the mess by trying to say those Nienna-wagoners must all be innocent - and that Kuru-voters will get her extra-attention because he's an easy lynch... (that probably is a threat for anyone willing to vote for Kuru toDay as well?) Okay. I'm not buying that all quite yet but I need to think about it. Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#30 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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The split vote follows from that. One vote for someone I believed to be a wolf and another to someone I believed to be the cobbler. Quote:
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You have an interesting vocabulary indeed! ![]()
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#31 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalė
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But that raises an interesting question. I mean does it really matter if someone gives two players their last votes ending up with even number of leading votes on both? Does it then mean that which one the person voted "first" - even if it is in a same post - gets out from the trouble and the "latter" is lynched eg. is there a "first" and "second" vote if you vote two people in a same post like I did yesterDay?
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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