WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Nerwen: Doesn't like us sorcerors . I don't believe she voted, which I don't like, I think people are better voting early if they think there is a chance they won't be here on time

I think she said she had computer problems or something? So that isn't as questionable, I think.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Interesting how many people bit at that.

"No! No! It can't possibly be a Seer hint! It had to be because Kath left no trail!"

Why so jumpy? I even asked you not to jump at me?

Look at Kath's list. She is neutral about everyone; except she says she is "keen" on Eomer and "not keen" on Shasta. Now, where I come from, "keen" can be significant.

Where you come from. And as for being jumpy, not sure who is jumpy here, this far I think people merely commented about disagreeing with you. Of course, saying that people should not jump at you could be interpreted as also a sort of "pre-emptive defense", and that of course makes one's attention raised.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But the other question is– why a no-trace kill, if that's indeed what it was? There was plenty of suspicion being thrown around last Night– did no-one manage to suspect a wraith? Or did they, and the wraiths were too afraid of striking the Hunter? Were there no opportunities for them to frame someone else?

Now this is actually good question. The Hunter idea is interesting - however, would the Wraiths really be so much afraid of that? (In that case, they shouldn't dare to kill anybody at all! - Well, not that there would be anything wrong about that ) I mean, there is still the full number of us (okay, now minus two; it was minus one at Night) - so I think mathematically it's not that big chance. The less if the Hunter would manage to pick a Wraith as his target. Okay, another thing to consider might be, let's say, avoiding people who might be likely to be protected by the Ranger - but again, not quite sure who would that be after yesterDay, and also, the same problem as with the Hunter - there's still quite many of us, so the chance is quite small. So I really cannot think of such a reason being this. It really might be just some Wraiths playing it safe from the very beginning, or something else, like there being no better pick as everybody else would suspect some Wraith etc... but that seems a bit farfetched to me too. Hmm... maybe the opportunities to frame somebody else were just too small, so the Wraiths simply would not use the chance? Can't say.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The point of Kath's death not obviously pointing to anyone speaks in favour of my hypothesis: namely, Kath left her dream (about me) as a hint. This makes Wilwa's comment that Kath would be sneakier in leaving a hint even odder : if Kath was so entirely unsubtle, why didn't anyone mention the obvious conclusion to draw except me. Well, no-one will take it seriously except me, it seems, and I can hardly gain information about my own role.

Well, again, I think you are overstretching it. But mainly, not sure what, even if you were right, would you be capable to gain out of that? When it comes to catching the Wraiths?

Okay... Not sure if I'll be around now for some time again, but hopefully later, after a few hours, of nothing else...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, let me see. I mention one hypothesis about why Kath may have been killed, which just so happens to mention me being innocent.

Alarm bells, of course, go off.

Legate counters it, mentions that I could be a Wraith, and the only way to consider the theory is to presume my innocence beforehand (not so, by the way, the hypothesis itself is the evidence).

Then Nogrod responds: well, just happens to mention that I could be a culprit and that my post was a nice attempt to manipulate the village.

Wilwa posts, discrediting my hypothesis - oh look, I'm her top suspect now.

Brinniel consumes the vibes by osmosis: Kath was an untraceable kill - Eomer is a villain.

---------------

So yeah, looks to me like I've been jumped on. As for this:

"Well, again, I think you are overstretching it. But mainly, not sure what, even if you were right, would you be capable to gain out of that? When it comes to catching the Wraiths?"

Well, I'd be the only one not to gain because I already know. The village could gain, though. But then, we shouldn't be looking for personal gain, eh Legate?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

"Eomer: Hmmm, yeah, not liking this at all. One thing that stands out from the notes I took earlier is that he seems to be leaning towards voting Nog for a while, but then later votes Izzy to save Nog, I'll go back and read the wording again exactly, but from that little bit I don't like it. And his post I commented on earlier doesn't sit well with me either. Later on toDay (after sleep, and re-reading, and discussion and such), I'll have a stronger opinion, but right now I'm leading towards guilty."

Ok, I cannot let this go.

You are saying that I flip-flop on Nogrod. This is totally innaccurate. I said that I don't like Nogrod's method of suspecting everyone (apart from Legate) who had posted thus far, and promising to vote for someone who hadn't posted. I thought, and think, that that's very silly reasoning.

I then gave a joke post, about how Nogrod was getting angry and that we can make him go crazy.

Nowhere have I ever looked like I was going to vote for Nogrod, and so it's perfectly reasonable that I wanted to keep him alive at the end of Day One.

This comment, plus your reasoning for voting me yesterday, added to your refusal to think outside the box for the slaying of Kath, makes you look very bad to me now; and I know it's an unfortunately good chance that two people in-game who get on each other's wrong side will keep arguing until one is dead (and both are usually innocent) but such is human nature.

Lousy humans, inferior... bleh...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm glad it's quiet in the office today.

About this Nogrod - Rune, situation, it could really go either way. What Nogrod has to bear in mind is that not everyone wants to be village-leader - it's understandable that Rune decided to sit out and not post.

But it's fair to look out for baddie-behaviour and see who fits the pattern. Having said that, last time I tried that it led me to vote for Isabellkya. Hit or (mainly) miss.

I'm not really suspecting either at the moment.

Nerwen's someone I've missed because of the no-vote. I'm not sure about her.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

"Eomer: Hmmm, yeah, not liking this at all. One thing that stands out from the notes I took earlier is that he seems to be leaning towards voting Nog for a while, but then later votes Izzy to save Nog, I'll go back and read the wording again exactly, but from that little bit I don't like it. And his post I commented on earlier doesn't sit well with me either. Later on toDay (after sleep, and re-reading, and discussion and such), I'll have a stronger opinion, but right now I'm leading towards guilty."

Ok, I cannot let this go.

You are saying that I flip-flop on Nogrod. This is totally innaccurate. I said that I don't like Nogrod's method of suspecting everyone (apart from Legate) who had posted thus far, and promising to vote for someone who hadn't posted. I thought, and think, that that's very silly reasoning.

Did I not say that I had to go back and re-read everything? When I was making those comments I was going off memory and the quick notes I had made earlier, I had no intention of simply leaving it at that. I'll be going back later today and re-read everything far more thoroughly.


Alrighty, here's another quick list from me (in no specific order), since they are so fun and all:

Totally unsure of (due to either lack of posts or just utter confusion):
Nienna
Nogrod
Shasta
Nilp
Groin
Sally

Ok with:
Legate
Lhuna
Brinniel

Not really liking:
Kent
Nerwen
Rune
Eomer
Eönwë

So that is where I stand right now. I hope to be able to make it on randomly throughout the day, and will try to be here for the last half hour before deadline, or else I'll be voting about 1 hour before.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

This is the absolutely last time I try to go back and re-read all posts. . .I have just wasted several hours on reading and writting, the really silly think is that I have not even looked at Legate, Eomer and Nogrod yet! That will have to wait, I need to get some school work done today.

Anyways I will start with giving you some of my thoughts of peoples behaviour yesterday.


The Innocent!


Wilwarin538:
Day1: She cannot make it back later as she promised and she clearly has no idea who to vote for so she decides set up some criteria in order to figure out who to vote for. Then defends her choice to Eomer. I think she looks very innocent, she might not have contributed much and not posted much of substance, but the way she chose her lynch seems genuinely like a person who is clueless and in a hurry, I believe a wolf would have voted more in the way I did. Giving vague but valid reason and then maybe attach a comment about randomness or day 1 befuddlement

Lhunardawen:
Day1: Starts of with an introduction post, then she produces a really good post. It is relatively short, but gives a clear impression of her thoughts of certain people. She does not make it silly long with non-statements. Also when people come up very long cases on day 1, then you know they are over analyzing. She then votes. . . A generally innocent feel about her, but it is mostly based on post nr. 2.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The Evil Ones:

Nerwen:
Day1:Has 3 in character posts, which seems to contain a few suspicions. . .I did not pick up on them because of the way it was written..
Day2: Argues that Kath was a no trace kill.

Nothing can be concluded from day1 alone, but the way she has started Day2 may indicate that she is a careful wolf.

Eönwë:
Day1: His day 1 mostly consists of a whole lot of comments, some alright and some completely irrelevant and then vote for Isabel. . .
Day2: Shows up, says hardly anything and then asks people what they think.

I think he looks bad, he posts quite a lot, but it is mostly comments to what others have said and he hardly puts anything forth him self. This is all topped off with a voted which is not based on suspicion.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Her posts don't look too seerish to me unless Eomer is one of the culprits - which he of course has neatly tried to counter already toDay.

Kath's saying she was "keen" on Eomer would look anything but Seerish to a Wraith of the Rohirrim. Or do you refer to the following line, "probably means he's a wolf but there you go"?

Well... it seems to me that the sensible thing for a guilty Eomer would be to raise the point in his favour (or let one of his packmates do it), and then let the matter drop, rather than harping on it the way he's doing. And I do agree with him that people have been far too quick to dismiss Kath's death– though not so much because I think she left Seer-hints as such.

As of his last few posts, though, Eomer seems to be really overreacting to the amount of suspicion against him... we all know what that can mean.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Now this is actually good question. The Hunter idea is interesting - however, would the Wraiths really be so much afraid of that? (In that case, they shouldn't dare to kill anybody at all! - Well, not that there would be anything wrong about that ) I mean, there is still the full number of us (okay, now minus two; it was minus one at Night) - so I think mathematically it's not that big chance.

I was thinking specifically of whether they would be afraid that anyone who looked too Seer-ish was in fact the Hunter (i.e. trying to look like the Seer) as has been known to happen. There was a nasty incident involving a vigilante-Mith a couple of games back.

They may have simply decided to wait until they have a clearer idea what everyone else is (pointing to rather smooth baddies).

Or else the kill-choice might point to Nogrod (or a framing attempt).

EDIT: X'd with Wilwa and Rune.