WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

Changes from yesterday, I no longer suspect Rune. After further thought, and looking through his posts, just by the way he went after Nogrod pretty good yesterday he looks innocent. Nogrod seems to be a player that wolves would let be, and let him do his own thing, someone they would not want to tangle with unless he became too big of a problem. It could be contrived, but the way Rune went after Nogrod early on yesterday does not seem evil.


For me, it really was not the word random, although I did question how Eomer said it was the only one of the bunch that made sense if you yourself said it was '98% random.' It looked more like slapping on a general label (saying Izzy's first post was careful) just said it looked like you had some reason to it. However, Izzy's posts further in the day definitely did look careful.

My only question is why Izzy, why not wilwarin? The way she explained her vote as Legate said made it look like she was voting to not look suspicious and not necessarily the person she most suspected. Also, post 61 just has careful written all over it.

Why not Wilwa?

I don't know. . .I am quite indifferent about Wilwa, I have absolutely no opinion about her. (In the game)

Anyways I like the way you question everything, it is refreshing.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

About Rune.

Anyway Rune manages to be my top suspect right now with a slight margin over Sally.

Now there's nothing bad in one getting back to posting before the DL after one has said he has no possibility for that and has therefore voted early. No problem with that. No problem whatsoever (eg. this is no sarcasm but a plain fact). It's good people can get back and try to help in the voting-process even if they have themselves voted already in a game of no retractions.

But what did Rune actually do there in the end of the Day? Well he defended himself - even if no one had made any strong suspicions on him or none was actually entertaining the idea of lynching him (except for Kent that is).

And then like twenty minutes before the deadline, with all the hair-raising last minute hassle to come, he just backs away never to show his face anymore on that Day.

That is the blunder the wolves (and cobblers) do time and time again: when the lynch is going nicely from their POV they just lean back and relax - and try to be careful not to mess with anything controversial in the end of the Day. But that non-involvement is exactly the thing that betrays them. It has not been just once or twice this has happened. And this looks like a case straight out from the "Werewolf-handbook of catching the villains".

Look everyone, Nogrod suspects me! This is the closest thing to proof of my innocens you will ever get.

Anyways I cannot defend my self against his arguments, because it is based on when I post and not what I post. He is actually right in some way, because I did sit back and followed end of the day. I had very little to say and it was not extremely important for me who was lynched, as long as it was not me.

EDIT: Cross posted with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

I was just going to turn the PC off when I saw this one...

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Look everyone, Nogrod suspects me! This is the closest thing to proof of my innocens you will ever get.

Anyways I cannot defend my self against his arguments, because it is based on when I post and not what I post. He is actually right in some way, because I did sit back and followed end of the day. I had very little to say and it was not extremely important for me who was lynched, as long as it was not me.

Wrong (the bolded part), as you yourself kind of admit in the follow-up. You seem to forget the important part of what you did there in the end of the Day... you defended yourself for nonexistent threats. Which is the way the baddies see the world: threats everywhere and everyone ready to lynch them. And really, I don't know about you but at least I'm very much interested in who gets lynched even if I'm not myself in danger (which is rare indeed). Innocents have a common cause and insecurity about how the lynchings go. The baddies know the different outcomes in advance and in a good situation they can sit back and relax. Which I think you were doing - and which you even admit.

Trust me, I have caught a number of wolves from that behaviour (and a cobbler in the last game).

Okay. Enough today. More tomorrow.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wrong (the bolded part), as you yourself kind of admit in the follow-up. You seem to forget the important part of what you did there in the end of the Day... you defended yourself for nonexistent threats. Which is the way the baddies see the world: threats everywhere and everyone ready to lynch them. And really, I don't know about you but at least I'm very much interested in who gets lynched even if I'm not myself in danger (which is rare indeed). Innocents have a common cause and insecurity about how the lynchings go. The baddies know the different outcomes in advance and in a good situation they can sit back and relax. Which I think you were doing - and which you even admit.

I always reply when people say something about me, unless I deem it unimportant.

About the lynching. . .you said it your self

Originally Posted by Nogrod

well, who has good cases on Day1 anyway?

I knew I did not have a good case and that more often than not, it is an ordo who is lynched on day 1. . . Why would I go out and try to convince everyone to vote Isabel, when I was not at all sure of her guilt?
I am only obligated to tell why I vote as I do, I don't have to campaign for others to do the same.

Anyways I need sleep as well, so you will have to wait for a bit before I do any analysing.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh, wilwa, sorry if we played together and I did not remember: but if it was in some of the recent games, it was probably so that I died sometime on Day 1, so I hope you can excuse me that I don't remember much interaction with you

haha, no worries, to be honest the yesterDay I wasn't sure whether we had played together and had to go back and see, and it turns out we were both in Sally's game. Just thought it was funny that both of us had chosen to forget that game.

Anyway, down to business, some thoughts I meant to put down about half an hour ago before I was interrupted by the phone:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Now, don't jump on me for saying this, but the only way the Wraiths think she was the Seer is because she listed everyone and said that she has a good feeling about precisely one of them: and that's Eomer. I don't consider her bad feeling about Shasta to indicate Seer-dom because it was a straight-forward vote-based criticism that anyone could have made.

Now, I always think of finding the Seer first so those are my first thoughts. It could just be that she leaves no trail whatsoever, but I'm never sure Wraiths would kill like that.

Uhm, I disagree with you, and agree with Legate. Saying she's "keen" on you and then joking you're probably a wolf is not a good Kath-seer hint, she would have been far sneekier about any seer hints, and atleast one, if not more, of the wraiths would have known that about her.

I believe Kath was simply killed for being a safe kill. I'm very sure that Wraiths would kill like that, it's a totally logical way to go, they don't want to leave a trail, I know I've done it in past games as a baddie.

So basically, I don't think there's much info to get out of her posts. We should probably focus on the living, not the dead. Until maybe a few more Nights have passed, perhaps a pattern may arise from the Night choices and then Kath's death can be reconsidered then. But now, I believe it's not worth the time.

So anyway, here are my basic thoughts at this time about everyone:

Nienna: Her first post about waiting til there's more discussion is odd, but I can somewhat relate to that. I'm terrible at Day 1 banter and therefore participate very little, Nienna is probably like that aswell. I'm going to wait to see more of her before trying to form any sort of opinion. By Day 2, I'm sure she's bound to have more to say, if not then suspicion is possible for her.

Kent: I don't know, only a few posts, not much to go on, I believe this is his first game (correct me if I'm wrong), I'm gonna wait on him aswell, but I have to admit I was getting a negative vibe.

Legate: As I was reading through his posts from yesterDay at first I didn't like him too much, but now more and more I'm starting to feel good about him. I can honestly say I'm very glad the coin-toss didn't result in me voting him. Actually back in my post about yesterDays posting I think I may have put something in there meant for someone else, about a post on #65/66, will have to go back and check on that.

Nogrod: Well, he is Nogrod. I don't know, he is indeed aggressive, but I don't see that as really being anything new. So I'm iffy right now.

Shasta: Not at all much to go one. So nothing.

Nerwen: Doesn't like us sorcerors . I don't believe she voted, which I don't like, I think people are better voting early if they think there is a chance they won't be here on time, but seem to remember this being a usual Nerwen thing, though she was a baddie last time I played with her and she did this, so I don't really know. I'm keeping my eyes on her.

Nilp: is Nilp. For now, there's nothing else.

Rune: An old friend, haven't played with him in ages, and really can't remember his usual style, so nothing really to compare to. Though is very defensive, not only of himself but he is quick to defend others, which I don't actually see as totally bad, especially cause he defended me slightly yesterDay. But still.....yeah, not sure, but definitely not loving right now.

Lhuna: Consistent, which is good, stuck to Legate from the beginning, not really getting any overly negative vibes for now.

Eomer: Hmmm, yeah, not liking this at all. One thing that stands out from the notes I took earlier is that he seems to be leaning towards voting Nog for a while, but then later votes Izzy to save Nog, I'll go back and read the wording again exactly, but from that little bit I don't like it. And his post I commented on earlier doesn't sit well with me either. Later on toDay (after sleep, and re-reading, and discussion and such), I'll have a stronger opinion, but right now I'm leading towards guilty.

Groin: still nothing, at all, unless I missed him in there somewhere. He is still playing right??

Sally: Not a lot. So nothing yet.

Eönwë: Some random stuff, quite obsessed with that greek letter, haha. Not liking, but not strongly enough to vote for, atleast so far toDay.

Brinniel: Had a similar Day 1 to me yesterDay, so I'm OK with her so far, I'll wait and see til there's more.

Alright, so that's it from me for atleast a couple hours. I think I should probably be able to come back on in the next 3 hours or so before sleeping, always a chance that could change though, but I'll try my hardest. Tomorrow is suddenly full for me, but I'll hopefully be on randomly, and my vote will probably be far closer to the deadline. I'll try my best to be on as much as I can.

[Kent2010]

Kent: I don't know, only a few posts, not much to go on,
-wilwarin

Not to call you a hypocrit, and granted I am not lighting this ship on fire with many posts, but in this boat I am in the top half of posters and have more than you. And the phantom's last game was my first.

So now onto Nogrod. Out of all the fire and vigor he showed at the beginning, I was quite disappointed with his end performance, and that is why I am flipping my original opinion on him. When it came to the deadline, Nogrod fizzled out, or maybe he would say played more relax.

Your past deadline vote for sally looks bad I do not imagine you to be someone who likes to miss voting. There was a general confusion towards the end, but there is no indication you cross-posted with anyone (including Eonwe's vote before yours) - did you?

And as far as someone looking relaxed it did not seem like you minded whether it was Izzy or sally. In posts 102 and 109 you quote Izzy and say a couple words that looks like it's nudging suspicion towards her way.

Of those who have garnered votes this far I'd be most happy to vote for Sally basically for bandwaggoning an innocent.
-post 93

This is interesting, and this is what I was going to be suspicious of Kath for today, but that is moot now. Anyway, the over-reaction to the two votes against you worries me. First, I would not classify two early votes as a bandwagon - what happened to Izzy yesterday was a bandwagon. And secondly who determined you are innocent?

Okay. At the moment I'm inclined to vote either Groin or Eönwë. But they have an hour to change that inclination.
-post 73

Why didn't you go for Groin then? And why have you not pursued after him today?

[wilwarin538]

Not to call you a hypocrit, and granted I am not lighting this ship on fire with many posts, but in this boat I am in the top half of posters and have more than you. And the phantom's last game was my first.

I'll re-word then: yesterDay there were 6 posts by you, and the first 2 were random in-character Day 1 stuff (which I have no problem with), so 4 posts (even though that's more then my own count) is not enough for me to have a strong enough opinion; only a feeling, which is definitely subject to change and shouldn't cause you any worry for now since there are others that I'm far more unsure of. And I didn't follow phantom's game, I hadn't realised you had been in it, sorry for calling you a noobie.

So only 1 post since mine, I don't really have much more to add. I'm off to bed, hopefully I can make it on quickly in the morning, but the rest of my participation toDay will probably be in the last few hours leading up to the deadline.

[Nienna]

I've been trying to keep up but I really haven't had much time to read. I'll be around tomorrow more for a few hours before deadline when I will give more input.

And Sally is still making me nervous.

[Eönwë]

Ok, I'm here, am catching up with what I missed...

Meanwhile:

Originally Posted by wilwa about me

quite obsessed with that greek letter, haha.

One and a half posts = obsessed?

edit: don't know if I x-ed (probably did). haven't caught up yet.

[Nogrod]

Some things off my back I have tried to post for a while now.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I knew I did not have a good case and that more often than not, it is an ordo who is lynched on day 1. . . Why would I go out and try to convince everyone to vote Isabel, when I was not at all sure of her guilt?
I am only obligated to tell why I vote as I do, I don't have to campaign for others to do the same.

I'm not saying you should try to convince or campaign everyone for your vote (or to be a village-leader as Eomer put it). But if you're around you could join the discussion and give your points of view. Instead you decided to just back off and follow the ending of the Day from aside. The problem with that is - as I said already - that wolves tend to do that when the voting is going their way and they don't want to dirty their hands in any last minute discussions which are always a bit unpredictable as one doesn't know for sure how the votes will go in the end.

Originally Posted by Rune crossposting my earlier post

He is actually right in some way, because I did sit back and followed end of the day. I had very little to say and it was not extremely important for me who was lynched, as long as it was not me.

But looking back at this I may have to retract some of my suspicion on you because of this though. You might be earnest here - even if I do wonder your stance (this is not the only facet of this game we tend to disagree on... ).

Originally Posted by Kent

Your past deadline vote for sally looks bad I do not imagine you to be someone who likes to miss voting. There was a general confusion towards the end, but there is no indication you cross-posted with anyone (including Eonwe's vote before yours) - did you?

Well, I was refreshing the screen ready to vote unsure whether I was in the lead or not and did see both Kath and Eomer voting for Izzy - and registered someone posting a non-vote post there after them. But it was .00 at that time. So I decided that I could afford voting Sally in hopes of someone else doing the same move - but not compromising my own safety any more. I refreshed the screen once more to see that Eönwë had also voted and then decided to stick to my then already written Sally-vote. But it looks that while bolding the vote the minute went off (it was .00 when I started bolding it) and only after I had pushed the submit reply -button did I notice the time being .01.

Yes, I hate to miss the DL.

Originally Posted by Kent

This is interesting, and this is what I was going to be suspicious of Kath for today, but that is moot now. Anyway, the over-reaction to the two votes against you worries me. First, I would not classify two early votes as a bandwagon - what happened to Izzy yesterday was a bandwagon. And secondly who determined you are innocent?

An overreaction to the two votes? I was in a shared lead three minutes before the DL with those two votes...

When the votes are spread widely one vote is little but another one is highly significant as it brings that one person seriously on the fray - which was exactly what Sally's vote did.

And to your second question: Lommy determined that I'm an innocent and I happen to know that: so I know it was putting an innocent into the lead - and if Sally is a baddie she knew that as well.


But that's for that for my part. I'll need some supper now but will be back in an hour or something - and will probably have time then.

The focus of my next little study will probably be: who withheld their cards in the end causing all that insecurity and "randomness" there in the end?

Then possibly for something completely different as I'm afraid I've lost the focus once more.