WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 05-08-2009, 06:38 PM

Okay, here's the deal from my point of view...

Known innocents:
Nogrod - the seer
wilwarin538 - ordo
Nerwen - ordo

Unknown (three of whom be wolves and including the ranger & the hunter):
Nienna
Shastanis Althreduin
Rune Son of Bjarne
Lhunardawen - a wolf by implication?
satansaloser2005 - lying eg. a wolf?
Eönwë
Brinniel

But the basic numbers are now 7-3

The worst case scenario:

We miss toDay = 6-3
Ranger doesn't get it during the Night = 5-3
We miss the lynch toMorrow = 4-3
Ranger misses at Night = Game over.

The best scenario:

We lynch a wolf toDay = 7-2
Ranger protects me = 7-2 (or 6-2 if the wolves continue their line - but then there should be added one more known innocent or a wolf)
We lynch another wolf = 7-1 (6-1)
etc...

Okay. I can see now why the wolves are ready to play it "all or nothing" as the scenarios are like live and die within two Days/Nights.

Funny: it looked like our odds were really bad in then beginning - and I had the feeling of us being against the wall all the time - but looking at the numbers we're looking pretty good right now - if we just pick one toDay.

And with all the probabilities the ranger can save me the next Night as well so even if we miss toDay we will have 6(5)-3 tomorrow with either two known innocents and a wolf - or three known innocents. And that is going to ease our voting a lot.

So I just need to pull my act together and start delivering. But even if I can't do it, the growing numbers of innocents will make our choices better.

But we should start with a lynch that goes to the right address toDay.

05-08-2009, 06:38 PM	#11
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay, here's the deal from my point of view... Known innocents: Nogrod - the seer wilwarin538 - ordo Nerwen - ordo Unknown (three of whom be wolves and including the ranger & the hunter): Nienna Shastanis Althreduin Rune Son of Bjarne Lhunardawen - a wolf by implication? satansaloser2005 - lying eg. a wolf? Eönwë Brinniel But the basic numbers are now 7-3 The worst case scenario: We miss toDay = 6-3 Ranger doesn't get it during the Night = 5-3 We miss the lynch toMorrow = 4-3 Ranger misses at Night = Game over. The best scenario: We lynch a wolf toDay = 7-2 Ranger protects me = 7-2 (or 6-2 if the wolves continue their line - but then there should be added one more known innocent or a wolf) We lynch another wolf = 7-1 (6-1) etc... Okay. I can see now why the wolves are ready to play it "all or nothing" as the scenarios are like live and die within two Days/Nights. Funny: it looked like our odds were really bad in then beginning - and I had the feeling of us being against the wall all the time - but looking at the numbers we're looking pretty good right now - if we just pick one toDay. And with all the probabilities the ranger can save me the next Night as well so even if we miss toDay we will have 6(5)-3 tomorrow with either two known innocents and a wolf - or three known innocents. And that is going to ease our voting a lot. So I just need to pull my act together and start delivering. But even if I can't do it, the growing numbers of innocents will make our choices better. But we should start with a lynch that goes to the right address toDay. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...