WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Nogrod]

Okay, here's the deal from my point of view...

Known innocents:
Nogrod - the seer
wilwarin538 - ordo
Nerwen - ordo

Unknown (three of whom be wolves and including the ranger & the hunter):
Nienna
Shastanis Althreduin
Rune Son of Bjarne
Lhunardawen - a wolf by implication?
satansaloser2005 - lying eg. a wolf?
Eönwë
Brinniel

But the basic numbers are now 7-3


The worst case scenario:

We miss toDay = 6-3
Ranger doesn't get it during the Night = 5-3
We miss the lynch toMorrow = 4-3
Ranger misses at Night = Game over.

The best scenario:

We lynch a wolf toDay = 7-2
Ranger protects me = 7-2 (or 6-2 if the wolves continue their line - but then there should be added one more known innocent or a wolf)
We lynch another wolf = 7-1 (6-1)
etc...


Okay. I can see now why the wolves are ready to play it "all or nothing" as the scenarios are like live and die within two Days/Nights.

Funny: it looked like our odds were really bad in then beginning - and I had the feeling of us being against the wall all the time - but looking at the numbers we're looking pretty good right now - if we just pick one toDay.

And with all the probabilities the ranger can save me the next Night as well so even if we miss toDay we will have 6(5)-3 tomorrow with either two known innocents and a wolf - or three known innocents. And that is going to ease our voting a lot.

So I just need to pull my act together and start delivering. But even if I can't do it, the growing numbers of innocents will make our choices better.

But we should start with a lynch that goes to the right address toDay.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2

[Nogrod]

OMG I'm so much afraid of you Brinn...

You could be the one masterminding all of this (especially with Legate)! But you speak sense as you always do.

You're so smooth and reasonable... and you speak sense.


But anyway, as I'm going to sleep now my top candidates at the moment would be Sally, Shasta and Lhuna... in that order.

I hope I'll be having something to add to my thoughts on all of you as I come back later.

= please post people! It's not nice if just a few post!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?

Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2

In all three of the cases possible (as I posted above), Lhuna is much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent. Either Lhuna or Sally is going to be lynched today; I simply say that it's more efficient to lynch Lhuna (the probable Wraith) instead of Sally (the possible Wraith).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Either Lhuna or Sally is going to be lynched today

That sure you are? How about we lynched you indeed?

I simply say that it's more efficient to lynch Lhuna (the probable Wraith) instead of Sally (the possible Wraith).

Now where do you pick these labels of "probable" and "possible" - and the easy-going evaluation between them? Do you have a reason for that order of procedures? What might it be? I still haven't seen your case against Lhuna which would be better than cases made against Sally. Indeed I think I do not remember a single point you would have made... (maybe you have, but you sure don't triumph with those).

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Sally is freaking me out. But it is possible that she could be innocent and trying to take the attention off the real seer, it's a little odd but definitely not impossible. I just think it's improbable.

"Possible", yes. But how "probable" is it that as an ordo she decided she would act like knowing that Lhuna is a baddie as she didn't know it (there's no way for an ordo to know that)? She could have easily said that she had "dreamt" of someone already dead in Lhuna's place, if she were an innocent. But her wish to kill someone she shouldn't know about if she were true innocent looks pretty bad. More bad than the person she wishes to kill - even if she turned out wolf as well which I still find plausible (otherwise there would be no point in her fake-reveal).

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??

Well, Sally could play a game naming Lhuna (her mate in crime) as a wolf and thence whichever way the voting goes another one of them would look good as the other was a baddie. A cool act by wolves and perfectly reasonable when only two Days separate them from victory if they play it right (there confidence with someone who delivered us a wolf would be worth their weight in gold).

But happily we're alert here.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Implicitly. You're being contrary; no more, no less.

Sorry, I have no idea where / what you are referring to.

Originally Posted by Shasta

The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.

No I won't admit that. Your activity on Day1 was really bad and I would have loved to lynch you for that but toDay - well lately - you have been playing indeed. I do appreciate it! Indeed I feel you've posted more than in the last game. Maybe we need an impartial judge for this "attendance" if you feel different.

But my problem with you is the way you try to save Sally (whom I think now as the #1 wolf around) for whichever cost.

Originally Posted by Shasta

For another, you think Lhuna innocent (which, in itself, could make sense under specific circumstances), but then you turn right around and say that she could be a wolf, by implication, but only if Sally is a wolf?

I don't darn know about Lhuna! I did suspect her from Day1 already and do even now, but then again if you and Sally are wolves then the third could be Brinn who's your last fellow... or basically anyone...

I don't think Lhuna innocent. As an innocent myself I can't afford thinking someone innocent without a very good cause. So why do you try to make the impression I think Lhuna innocent? Look at my posts backwards and you see I suspect her every noew and then.

Suspecting someone more than X does not mean one doesn't suspect X. Basic logic.

But I do see Sally and you a lot more suspicious than her - even if we lynch Sally toDay and she turns out a wolf I would say it like 50-50 with you and Lhuna, looking at your insistence with Sally maybe 70-30 for you to be honest. But yes, she's third in my list.

But really:

Originally Posted by Shasta

When Sally has been proclaiming from the rooftops that Lhuna is a wolf?

How about this one:

Originally Posted by Sally's second post toDay

Okay, so here's what I know.

Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
Lhuna: wolf

So where might that have been? No... it was not from the rooftops... she just carefully hinted it from between the lines.

Give up mate.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta x2

[Nienna]

I'm epically confused.

I'm also not going to be around hardly at all toDay. I'll be back in the morning my time to read anything new and then I will have to vote then.

First a question:

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities...

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities...

I've read the thread... and think I know all the possibilities but my problem most lies with the fact that Sally never openly stated that she was in fact the seer. She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?

I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eyes on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What Lhuna Said:

#34 - Recommends keeping Eomer alive. Wishy-washy about Nogrod. Has bad feelings about Legate.

#62 - Says that Nogrod and Eomer feel "genuinely innocent". Thinks Legate is "saying too much, and not being too careful about it". Also thinks I'm suspicious, calling my vote for Nogrod "safe". Considers Sally's reaction to being voted by Brinn "suspicious". Thinks Nerwen seems alright.

#64 - Votes Legate.

#265 - Praises Nogrod. Considers Sally quite suspicious for holding her thoughts.

#268 - Argues with Nogrod about why she hasn't been killed. Points out that the wolves might have implicated themselves if they'd killed her. Reiterates her innocence.

#282 - Analyzes the Eomer voters. Thinks Wilwa was odd, Brinn more sensible, Legate pointless, and suspects Eonwe. Unsure about Nienna, thinks Rune is under her radar, and will be targeting Sally. Votes Legate.

What was said about Lhuna:

#39 - Brinn won't vote for Lhuna as she hasn't played in a while.

#44 - Legate thinks she should "learn her place" and would like to see more from her than one-liners.

#49 - Rune has Lhuna on his list.

#53 - Eomer thinks she seems "a bit sneaky".

#81 - Nogrod thinks that Lhuna could be "a wolf playing it consistently & intelligently", but thinks she deserves to play more than those innocents who do nothing (don't think I didn't catch that, Nog.)

#86 - Izzy has no idea about Lhuna.

#101 - Eomer, on Lhuna's vote: "thats' ok."

#137 - Wilwa thinks Lhuna is consistent, and is not getting any overly negative vibes.

#147 - Eomer thinks Lhuna vote was sensible, calls her a potential smart Wraith.

#152 - Wilwa is okay with Lhuna.

#153 - Rune gets a generally innocent feel from Lhuna based on her second post.

#185 - Nerwen notes that the continued existence of Lhuna could point away from Nogrod as a Wraith.

#189 - Sally is "still" getting bad vibes from Lhuna. Huh?

#199 - Nilp thinks Lhuna is "probably innocent".

#211 - Eonwe thinks Lhuna suspicious (I think that's what he's saying, anyway)

#217 - Nienna has no idea about Lhuna.

#227 - Eomer thinks of Lhuna: "allright, I suppose"

#235 - Eonwe says that Lhuna is being quiet.

#252 - Nogrod entertains the possibility of Lhuna being a Wraith since she's not dead.

#260 - Nerwen; same thing.

#293 - Nogrod thinks Lhuna's praise of him is overdone.

#299 - Sally calls Lhuna out as a wolf.

#310 - Nogrod considers Lhuna a "wolf by implication"... which makes me wonder why he's so keen to vote for Sally instead. Why vote a possible wolf when you already admit you have a probable wolf?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I hope you Wilwa have time toDay as you're a known innocent. So everyone can trust there's no malice in your analysis or any thoughts you give.

I should, I'll be popping on randomly for the next few hours, but then I need to sleep. But in the morning I'll have like 4-5 hours straight for me to be on, my vote will be early but I should still be able to contribute quite a bit.

I need to read everything over again, I'm so confused....but I'm backing with Nogrod, so Sally is freaking me out. But it is possible that she could be innocent and trying to take the attention off the real seer, it's a little odd but definitely not impossible. I just think it's improbable.

So yeah...I will be back, but don't expect most of participation until about 9:30 am EST (GMT -4), which is a good 8 hours before the deadline.

[wilwarin538]

One more thing....I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?

It makes perfect sense but is not the issue: sending a seer list (who was dreamt at which Night) and saying it out aloud "I'm the seer" is the same thing.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eye on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.

Not if Lhuna is her mate and she thence would make herself good / make Lhuna look good if she was caught.

Or just plain counting - here I look at Shasta's sudden inspiration of seeing a need to lynch Lhuna toDay.

If we make it wrong toDay - and if the ranger misses the next Night - it will be 5-3 toMorrow and the sheer voting-power of the ringwraiths will carry it as we probably can't hold our ranks as innocents as we don't know the situation unlike they do.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#310 - Nogrod considers Lhuna a "wolf by implication"... which makes me wonder why he's so keen to vote for Sally instead. Why vote a possible wolf when you already admit you have a probable wolf?

Just because of that.

A) a wolf by implication is much less than finding out someone is lying (and not lying for good but looking forwards to kill someone she can't know is innocent or a baddie - unless she is a wolf knowing the other) and therefore - according to that lie - someone might be a wolf "by implication" but the first culprit is the one posing as the seer and claiming to be able to kill when she's not in the position of doing that. Yeah, only I know why she can't be it for sure. But I think I have made ten times the case why a reasonable person should not believe her.
B) Because you - whom I suspect at least as much as I do suspect Sally - seem to defend the liar so consistently.


Just to answer...

Originally Posted by Shasta

#81 - Nogrod thinks that Lhuna could be "a wolf playing it consistently & intelligently", but thinks she deserves to play more than those innocents who do nothing (don't think I didn't catch that, Nog.)

Easy. On Day1 someone actually plays unlike some others who just hunker down and either do not post at all or just post one post saying "let's catch the wolves". I would trade any first kind of player to any latter anytime - whatever their role is.

This is a game and game needs to be played. I don't care if I'm on the winning or the losing side but I want to play. Those who just hide in the shadows make games only lousy.

I don't want to throw a dice. That's soo booring! You can do it at your home and alone.

I want to play werewolf eg. a game of accusation, deceit, suspicion, rhetorics... with others playing the same game.

Catch it now?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Implicitly. You're being contrary; no more, no less.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and -

Originally Posted by Nogrod

B) Because you - whom I suspect at least as much as I do suspect Sally - seem to defend the liar so consistently.

How many errors do you count in that statement? I count... two.

1. You suspect me. Why? I can't have given you anything to suspect me on - I haven't been able to post. The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.

2. I defend the liar so consistently. ...Wait, consistently? I make one post offering an alternate explanation as to why Sally has been saying what she's been saying - one, mind you, that you seem to have rejected out-of-hand - and not only do you say I'm "defending" her, but that I'm doing it "consistently"? With one post? Rethink that, maybe, and get back to me.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the insistence of Sally and Shasta - the most suspicious people around to my view - I'm thinking we should not lynch Lhuna.

But I would be happy to vote either of them. A wolf down I'd say.

I'm not saying Lhuna is an innocent, but I think she is a lot less suspicious than these two. (If Sally is a wolf then Lhuna might be one as well - but that's only "by implication", not suspicious as such on that issue - there are other things though but let's think of them later *needs to go to sleep finally*)

EDIT: Blah: I seem to have missed some actual arguing... Sorry. I'll comment on those.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Can I just point out, Nogrod, that you're making absolutely no sense?

For one thing, you call me one of the most suspicious people around - a fact I've already addressed. For another, you think Lhuna innocent (which, in itself, could make sense under specific circumstances), but then you turn right around and say that she could be a wolf, by implication, but only if Sally is a wolf? When Sally has been proclaiming from the rooftops that Lhuna is a wolf?

[Nogrod]

In a comment to your #321 I had basically raised those issues in my #306. Although I know she is not the seer which you naturally can't know.

But I need to ask you Shasta a question.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf.However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).

Now what kind of knowledge might that be that an ordo would have? What kind of other "knowledge" is there around? Why are you speculating with impossibilities?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade.

If Sally is a baddie we should lynch the person she claims to be a baddie? Because Sally is not suicidal? If you think Sally is trying to make her mate in crime look bad to make herself look good why don't you say let's lynch Sally first - and let's consider Lhuna then if Sally turns out to be a wolf? Why are yu so keen to lynch the "implication" (eg. whom Sally suspects) over from who actually says something she can't know for sure (unless she is a baddie which should be reason enough to lynch her)?

Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.

Why the marching order should be this? Sally lies. If she's not a baddie she can't have "any sort of knowledge" on her.

You have been counting, haven't you? If we lynch an innocent toDay you wolves have a much better future, but if we get one of you toDay your future looks very grim indeed. So let's try Lhuna first, right?

Funny, I was quite sure Lhuna was evil a few hours ago, but thanks to your campaign Shasta I'm beginning to think the contrary. Not because you suspect Lhuna but becasue you support Sally so heavily...


Sorry Shasta: I'm still "late" with my arguments. I'll try to catch up...