TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Of course not, but since you considered it, you obviously thought that the reasons his voters had were mostly valid, so why should they, from your perspective, be evil?

MY consideration of voting for him was based entirely on his vote retraction and the reason for it he gave. Those who voted for him before that I find suspicious, in that I saw nothing to merit a vote for him at that time. Obviously tum should also be scrutinized for being the deciding factor.

[Nerwen]

!ydobyreve olleH

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nerwen, has a habit of missing Day 1, but still with no reason provided as to why, the same will go for her. No vote today you'll be mod-fired. (Again this is negotiable, but again it will be difficult to change my mind).

Sorry, I'll be sure to vote toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Alona.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

!ydobyreve olleH

GAH!

*ahem*

Hello, Nerwen!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Right, make no assumptions and don't narrow lists down artificially. Sorry the only other way to narrow down the list is to look at who is alive from one day to the next. Take my thoughts or not I don't really care but I will state what I am thinking, it may be useful to some. I, unlike you it would seem, need to narrow the list down to a mangegable size and think of most likely scenarios given teh evidence we have up to this point. Did not Aragorn and the hunters do the same with the puzzle of Merry and Pippin, they were fairly close but not 100%.

Of course the bear might not go for wolves but it would make the most sense for him to do so, don't you think? Who poses the greatest threat to him? Wouldn't he love it to have killed all but 1 wolf so they still get 2 kills and then as the list narrows kill the final off? It would make the most sense to me to eliminate most rivals now while the list is still big.

But Morm, you weren't just making a working assumption– you actually said:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Anyway, since the bear killed Hakon it's obvious he/she thought him to be a wolf.

Which is more than just narrowing down the possibilities, surely?

And in fact I can think of three other reasons off the top of my head:

1. The bear thought Hakon a newbie-gifted (erratic behaviour, nervousness).
2. The bear thought he was the cobbler (sidetracking the village with pointless speculation).
3. The bear thought Hakon had spotted him. Anyone else notice this?–

#35.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I agree with all of that. Well people I am off now. I have a new suspect, but not for a wolf.

EDIT:X'd with Alona at #529.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

3. The bear thought Hakon had spotted him. Anyone else notice this?

Possible...and I have another (newbie) question. Are we allowed to arrange our deaths in a manner that would leave clues for the good guys to figure out who killed us?

I hope I worded that right...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by morm

Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.

Definitely not wanted. What does an innocent morm gain from saying this? Hint - it's "nothing".

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Possible...and I have another (newbie) question. Are we allowed to arrange our deaths in a manner that would leave clues for the good guys to figure out who killed us?

Sorry, I don't understand.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Definitely not wanted. What does an innocent morm gain from saying this? Hint - it's "nothing".

That was Mira, not morm ...and I've been wondering whether to draw attention to it or not. Mac saw it earlier and was trying to shut her up.

EDIT:X'd with Mira.

[Nerwen]

I have some more to say, but no time to say it right now. Back later.

!eybdooG

EDIT:removed extra E.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You're right, it was Mira. Sorry morm.

Also, one too many e's, newreN.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sorry, I don't understand.

I mean that, if an innocent is killed, are they able to choose the details of their death and leave hints in their death as to the player they think night-killed/lynched them?

EDIT: If this could be considered cheating, I will shut up now and never re-hatch the subject again.

[the phantom]

Finally here. I haven't read a word of the posts today. I am starting to read right now, and will respond as I go. For now- these are my thoughts.

Frankly I was hoping to be offed during the night and be done with this.

I said yesterday that throwing late votes on someone who couldn't defend himself properly was a perfect way to lynch a Gifted. Even earlier in the day I said that we should set an artificial deadline to avoid lynching gifteds. The idea was totally pooh-poohed.

When people suspected me for suggesting Fea as an option, I said "Why? At least we wouldn't off a gifted that way."

And finally Pitch I believe was the only person yesterday that I specifically said "hasn't been suspicious".

So yeah, um... I so badly want to say this certain phrase to everyone.... I'm trying to resist...

*grits teeth*

[satansaloser2005]

Back, but have a headache (again, dang it) so hopefully I won't be up much longer.


I feel rather dumb; I said yesterDay that if I needed to be lynched in order to save a gifted, so be it, so it should have tipped me off when Pitch voted me. I'm sure that wasn't really his reason (although I can't think what it might have been, since as I discussed earlier it didn't help him out votewise to throw one away on me) but I found it ironic.

In other news, I was going to suggest leaving Pitch for toDay since the suspicion of him jumped up so close to DL but I got kicked off the Downs (Boro can vouch, because I was on IM with him screaming to let me back on lol). Too late now, but I want my sentiment known.


Back again in a bit. Going to check out the weather, since it was storming on my way home a bit ago. Phantom, Tum, how's the weather for you? Anything pretty?

EDIT: x'd since Phantom

[autume98]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Going to check out the weather, since it was storming on my way home a bit ago. Phantom, Tum, how's the weather for you? Anything pretty?

Oh yeah! It's the only reason I was up at 5 this morning! How is it that it's my day sleeping in and I end up waking up way early?

So I'm catching up on posts. I haven't gotten through them all yet. I read yours and had to post.

I really don't see Rikae as being a wolf. I'm not really sure where people see her as being suspicious. I don't think she's the bear either. It seems like her points have been sound to me. Nothing has jumped out at me saying wolf or bear. Then again I haven't been playing that long so maybe you see something I haven't.

Originally Posted by phantom

I said yesterday that throwing late votes on someone who couldn't defend himself properly was a perfect way to lynch a Gifted. Even earlier in the day I said that we should set an artificial deadline to avoid lynching gifteds. The idea was totally pooh-poohed.

Yes I wish I would've listened to you. I should have just left my vote then the Seer would still be alive. Unfortunately, I can't go back and undo what I did.

You mentioned setting an artificial deadline so I'm just curious as to why you voted at the last minute as well? Granted your vote didn't affect anybody. Like I said I'm just curious.

Now off to finish catching up!

[autume98]

Well I have finished getting caught up.

I'm not sure what to think of phantom, but then it seems like a lot of the old-timers can't get a handle on him either so I don't feel so bad about that.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Mira- I agree with your analysis on page 13 that I was Pitch's most likely dream. He was smart and didn't make it obvious (the Seer should almost never hint at his first dream strongly), but he appeared to be setting himself up to side with me later. He stated that he liked what I was doing, and that he was scared of me coming into the game (making me a logical 1st dream). He also mentioned that he agreed that you should just go with Phantom and hope for the best.

Anyone have any thoughts on what he said here?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

but because phantom once more made me look like a fool - this time by saying things, close to the deadline, that suggest he had Pitchwife figured for a likely gifted (I mean the bit about the flow going against him when he couldn't return, etc.)

I did not suspect Pitch was gifted necessarily- I just thought he wasn't guilty. I've never played with him and he didn't look jumpy or nervous to me at all. But then you've played with him before and say that he was, so I'll just have to believe you on that point.

My gripe about voting for him was that the votes were conveniently coming when he was absent, and so if he was a Gifted he had no chance to save himself. When I've been a baddie in the past that's exactly what I like to do if someone looks gifted- you wait for them to be gone and then make your move (like with Noggie in Shasta's game). I had made that point about not starting a late charge earlier in the game and I was angry that people were doing exactly what I had not advised them to do.

Doing that generally is disasterous. But anyway....

Originally Posted by Rikae

if he thought he was gifted, why didn't he save him when he could? Why make comments, and a throwaway vote, seemingly designed to make himself look good without saving Pitch?

Firstly, he didn't look gifted to me.

Second, my vote wasn't a throwaway. I brought you to within one of his total and there was still a definite chance you could've died instead. If Tum would've gone with you possibly Pitch would still be alive. And there were still retractions out there. And if I could've voted earlier and put feelers out for others who wanted to off you, I would've.

As far as why I didn't vote Hakon, I didn't really think he was guilty either. I believe I defended him on a couple of issues more than once yesterday. You were the one I was most curious about and I had a legit chance of lynching you.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that at the time I also didn't know precisely what the count was even. I believe I did not have one Pitch vote and Mac's vote for Inzil figured in. I was in a late meeting and I couldn't give much attention to my laptop.

So, clear?

Originally Posted by Inzil

phantom-voted Rikae for no reason given.

I gave my reasons earlier in the day, laddie.

[the phantom]

Mira- I agree with your analysis on page 13 that I was Pitch's most likely dream. He was smart and didn't make it obvious (the Seer should almost never hint at his first dream strongly), but he appeared to be setting himself up to side with me later. He stated that he liked what I was doing, and that he was scared of me coming into the game (making me a logical 1st dream). He also mentioned that he agreed that you should just go with Phantom and hope for the best.

I expect today he would have worded things more strongly.

Originally Posted by Mira

Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.

Um... okay... Not sure why you would even say that, for a host of reasons.

*frowns and scratches head*

[Formendacil]

Okay...

So.

We killed our Seer. That's just lovely. Well, what can we learn from this?

*blinks*

That is a LOT of Day 1 to look at. Even cutting out the extraneous half dozen pages of mere banter, a lot of serious and interesting discussion took place, and the vote-record is, I'm thinking, possibly richer than usual for potential analysis.

Just a few thoughts for now--it's already tomorrow in my timezone.

First of all... Rikae has suggested lynching the phantom. I'm of two minds on this... First of all, not knowing the phantom's role, I tend to be extremely wary of him, so lynching him just to be clear of things has a really nice ring to it--and Rikae makes a plausible case, at least, about his failing to save Pitchwife, though clearly thinking him innocent.

On the other hand... normally I find myself alone in wanting the whole phantom question to solve itself and go away. So... I'm a bit leery. To her credit, Rikae is an old hand at this, and capable of being sensible, so it's not a surprise at all that, if someone else is going to get the anti-phantom bug, it'd be someone like her. Morm is also an old hand of that sort, and he, too, seems somewhat convinced.

So I'm spooked... normally I'm alone in seeing sense--or nonsense--where the phantom is concerned.

A second thought regards the kills... not much of a thought really... namely that we know the bear killed Hakon and the wolves killed Lari. Okay, so that's not exactly a revelation, but it's after midnight in my world (yes... I know... I have a touch of a cold even yet and should be abed....) and I'm trying to reason this through. Basically, it follows from this that, if we are able to figure out who was responsible for a particular kill, we'll be able to figure out if that's a Wolf or a Bear. And... that's as far as I got.

(Real Life Note: I'm at my parents now, for the weekend, for my Dad's 50th birthday party/extended family get-together. This may or may not affect my participation. Insofar as my family isn't all that stupendous, I expect I'll be online enough to contribute, but no promises... I did, after all, bring beer.

[satansaloser2005]

Braving the pain for a moment, I'd like to leave you something to think about.

Why would the bear kill Hakon, when (as I pointed out earlier) a few people, myself included, thought he could be the bear? If it was me I'd love to leave someone around who looked suspicious (which is I think why I don't get Night killed most of the time) so attention would be drawn away from myself. So what in the name of Joss Whedon (♥) was the bear thinking? Was it random? Did they, as someone's pointed out recently, think that Hakon had perhaps picked them out? Did they fancy him for the seer? Was it just to mess with our heads?


Discuss lots while I'm gone. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

And with that, sorry I can't be more help at present but I have to go. Night!


ETA: And if Mira (or someone else for that matter) analyzed me while I was gone I'd be giddy!

[the phantom]

Some of you make me laugh. Let's see if I can sum up the situation.

"Phantom made suggestions that would benefit the innocents from the very beginning, tried to avert voting disaster with his advice and vote, was right about Pitch, was right to defend Hakon, and he's the likliest dream choice from the Seer. So... let's lynch him!"

If anyone who isn't a baddie votes for me today, Candor Man will ridicule you until the end of time.

[Mirandir]

#542
Upset about Pitch's death, not pleased with anybody.

#546
Responds to Rikae, saying didn't think Pitch was gifted, why he didn't vote Hakon, and to point out that his Rikae-vote did have backing.

#549
Agrees with Mira's analysis that he was Pitch's first dream.

#552
Makes sarcastic remarks about why people shouldn't vote him

#556
Ponders forcing tie every day just to be a jerk
Alon - "came under very slight threat halfway through, and so if she's guilty the Pitch voters don't look so good"
Rikae - "threatened right at the deadline, so if she is guilty Tum rushing in and retracting her Hakon vote in favor of padding Pitch's lead (effectively savingRik's skin) looks extremely suspicious."
If both are innocent we wouldn't have anything at all

#558
Responds to Nerwen's question about feelings on Mira, determines doesn't know what to think

#626
Defends Mira and her insanely idiotic slip, thinks is cobbler if anything
Wants to know why Shasta voted Pitch, says doesn't make sense

#644
Wants to know why morm is attracting votes
Doesn't like the nickname confusion. Suggests lynching autumne to get rid of it.
Sarcasm directed towards Rikae about a comment she made
rhinoceros
pudding

#667
Doesn't want to vote morm or Brinn, tempted to vote Rikae again

#672
"What's that you say, Shasta? You'd like to volunteer? Well, I'd love to help you out, but Sally said it first. She has to refuse before you can offer yourself. Sorry."
Still picking a fight with Shasta, presumably over his vote for Pitch yesterDay

#678
Says can't spot the bear and the people who thought Hakon spotted it are wrong

#681
Introduces possibility that Alona and autumne are BFFs
Considering voting for Rikae or Shasta or Tum because of nickname thing

#688
Responds to Mac's question about why he didn't mention Inzil

#691
"Well, now that an admittedly drunk Formendacil has voted Inzil, I certainly can't jump onto that train.

See Mac. I just knew it wasn't for me. This is a sign. It confirms it."

#712
"Shasta, Rikae, or Tum.... which one.... which one...."

#714
Wonders why no one has elaborated on why Tum and Alona might be BFFs
Ponders voting for whoever Brinn votes for just because she was nice to him

#730
About the statement Rikae had made about being ready to trust him but then he said something that made her change her mind:
"Well crap, Rikae. You say something like that so close to the deadline... And now I have to try a mad-speed goose chase to find out what the heck you're talking about. *sighs*

Here goes..."

#749
Votes Alona for dropping out of the game he modded.

"Tonight- you need to come after me. No one's ever going to lynch me. I'm Pitch's most likely dream, and I don't lynch easily even if there is mass support. Just get rid of me already. You need to sooner or later after all."

~~~~~~~

Guess he got his wish on that last one...

Clearly he had a problem with Shasta and Rikae (and Tum for the nickname thing, but that doesn't really count). The other thing that sticks out is the possibility of autumne and Alona being the BFFs. I might take a look at that later, but for now it should probably be bedtime.

[Nienna]

Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are
Up above the radar so high
Like a baddie in the sky.

Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are.

*goes to sleep*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are
Up above the radar so high
Like a baddie in the sky.

Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are.

*goes to sleep*

HAHA!

*snuggles you*

Go to bed, sweetheart. And thank you.

[Formendacil]

Okay, going to be bedtime soon (it's 10:00 pm), so this will be my last post for the night. No serious analysis now, just impressions.

For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up).

In the meantime, my first impressions of Day 3 have three names: Morm, Rikae, and Sally, who seem to be in a little suspicion circle all of their own. It's Day 3, so we're about right on time for the former two to suspect me, so that's no huge surprise from this quarter. Beyond that, Rikae seems to be more excited than usual--a Wolf/Bear that saw something too close to the line yesterday? and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm. Sally doesn't seem so much suspicious as clueless, but that could make her a Cobbler, or a gut-instinct Bear.

autume and Alona are both around, it seems. Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates? and autume feels like she's trying to hard to be agreeable.

I'll probably back if there's much cross-posting, but the energy is flagging and the laundry is done.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm.

I was thinking the same thing. I was going to mention that we need to look at morm as well toDay.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up).

This goes for me too. I'll see what I can do about posting at work, but I make no promises. Oh and it'll be closer to 4 hours before the deadline for me. But I will be here. Now it's off to bed seeing as it's 11:30 here.

[satansaloser2005]

Normally I'd not bother, but this is misrepresentation. I know Dun didn't mean any harm, but I wanna clear it up anyway.

Originally Posted by Dun

Sally- voted Hakon, initially giving no reason. She then retracted and locked it in again for him, saying she would 'think clearer' when he was gone.
(Hakon 3)

I gave reasons earlier in the Day. Basically (to recap and also add, which I also tried to do at the end of the Day when the Downs died for me) I didn't like how he was starting/supporting side discussions, being overly defensive in my opinion, and generally giving off bad vibes to me. Basically a typical Day One vote, but at the time I felt pretty decent about it. (Obviously now I'm not as pleased with myself, since he wasn't a baddie, but it's the thought that counts.)


Didn't mean to side track, but I noticed that and wanted to clear it up for Dun's benefit.


I think I need to go to bed. You've got me for....twenty more minutes or so.

[satansaloser2005]

So I get here and everyone clams up. Bloody typical.

I'll be in my bunk.

(I'll be sleeping in quite late, if all goes to plan, and then I'm going to pop by to see my mother, so I'll be gone for a while but I will return in plenty of time to catch up, chat a bit, and of course vote.)

[Thinlómien]

Okay, now I managed to read through Day1 and these are the impressions I got based on it:

alonariel - cute avvie, but I still keep mixing her up with all the other newbies and half of Fea's gang
autume- not much to go on, slightly fishy (ha!) when switching her vote
Brinn- really touchy feely, whether due to a stressing role (werebear, anyone?) or bad day, no idea
Durelin- I like her
Formendacil- I like him
Inziladun- quite okay this far, I don't get the suspicion against him
Macalaure- not quite as suspicious as last time I played with him (translation for those who missed Brinn's game: seems fine this far, was a wolf last time and I totally caught him, speaking of which, I still have some reps to give out for that one...)
Mira- the banter-girl
morm- good ol' grumpy morm, I like him
Nerwen- when reading her posts I realised I missed her jokes when I was away from BD for several weeks... so it may be biased when I say she seems fine
Nessa- don't get why everybody suspects her
Nienna- totally under the radar
Rikae- could take a relaxing holiday (maybe together with Brinn, aww, wouldn't that be sweet? ) and looks a bit suspicious to me
sally- innocent enough
Shasta- gives me bad vibes
the phantom- messing around as usual

Now I'm off to read toDay. I will comment as I read in order to save time so sorry if I end up parroting people!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mira

Oh yes, because if I were evil I would make a slip that obvious. Give me some credit here, Rikae.
I meant because she wasn't a wolf or the bear

This made me raise my eyebrows because it seems like both overreacting to a joke and a bad, hastily-made excuse.

I think the bear might have though Hakon was the cobbler (I would have agreed with him/her there!) and killed him because of that.

Rikae is making herself look like a cobbler.

What, Mira is speculating about gifted identities? What's that?! More cobblers!

Originally Posted by morm

Mac, the only other one who is pinging the radar is Sally. Yesterday and today she seems confident, it's not the right word but almost smug. Confidence isn't gained by being ordo or gifted.

While I agree with you on principle, I think that what might look like confidence in sally's attitude is just a certain light-heartedness that is hard-wired in her very being.

Hey people, btw, if you quote someone, can you put the name (and the real name, not the role name!) of the quoted person there? Otherwise it's difficult, especially for those who need to read through quickly.

Rikae confuses me.

Mac has kind of double standards because he says some things should not be talked about and then he continues that himself.

Originally Posted by Al

I think we gave the wolves too much on Day 1 - an inundation of posts and then a lot of seemingly innocent-on-innocent voting/disagreements. I'm sure the wolves jumped on the bandwaggons - either doing it skillfully enough so as not to draw suspicion, or deciding to simply tack on their vote near the end of the Day. Either way, we're royally screwed if we don't start sniffing them out.

Couldn't phrase it better. We'd really better catch a baddie toDay, especially as there are two kills per Night.

I skipped Mira's Hakon-analysis out of tiredness (sorry!) but read the conclusions and disagree. If a Rikaebear was seriously annoyed by some player, I think she could kill him just to be rid of him. I know she protests, which slightly alters my opinion but not totally because a) unless I'm mistaken, she has lied about never doing something before when being a baddie and more importantly b) if you have to survive through all of the game alone and someone is constantly attacking you and annoying you by that, it is perfectly honourable to kill them!

Oh, Nerwen seems to have summed the possible reasons to Hakon's death quite nicely.

Ai ai, I just realised that the death of seer doesn't only take from us the dreams, but also half of the evidence from the wolf-kills. I don't like this at all...

Argharghargh it's going phantocentric again! Hey people, can't we just treat him like we treat everybody else, please?

Rikae, love, please cool down. I like you personally.

Originally Posted by Shasta

++Mirandir for pointing out gifteds, which is how we caught Boro last game.

Exactly, looks like she's trying to catch gifteds... which sadly probably only points at cobblerism, though. (Oops looks like morm said that before I wrote this part, too bad, I shoud read more carefully.)

Mmh I have played two games of RL ww recently and nailed every single wolf (Aganwolf & Legatewolf + Greeniewolf & Spawnwolf & nondownerwolf) but now I'm so much at loss looking at avatars instead of people's faces and having at least double the amount of players as before... and ok ok I'll stop gloating.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Lommy: has been having fun with Downers without us… but nothing suspicious on the game front

Quit whining and come to Finland next summer

And just fyi, I will have xed with everyone. Off to read more!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Mac has kind of double standards because he says some things should not be talked about and then he continues that himself.

Hmm?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Hmm?

Just referring to the Mira-slip incident. The comment maybe doesn't make any sense anymore since everybody started to talk about it anyway, but back when it occured to me it made more sense. But I guess the basic point remains that you brought the slip to spotlight by talking about it - even though the wolves would have (probably) noticed it anyway. You just handed it a bit fishily, that's all.

edit: xed with Dury and tp

[Mirandir]

As promised.

[Inziladun]

Lovely. Thanks.

[wilwarin538]

Mira, how much work would it be for you to make one for my little victory scene? Those things are pretty awesome!

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Mira, how much work would it be for you to make one for my little victory scene? Those things are pretty awesome!

Not much at all! I'll do it right now.

[Mirandir]

Here ya go wilwa!

[wilwarin538]

Thank you!