Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Pitchwife]

OK, as long as nobody else is talking, here are my thoughts on Lommy's death.
Apart from being against The Plan on Day 1, she heavily defended Legate on Day 2 and voted for Zil, the only other candidate who got any votes. Again, her confirmed innocence also confirms she had good motives in doing so. If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent. I'm pretty confident that we have at least one strategic mastermind among the wolves.

Nogrod would certainly be a candidate for such a role, but I'm very much against lynching him based on the outcome of his being Guarded. The whole idea of using the NG as a test of innocence, brought up by myself with some help from Sally and Nog (and wisely cautioned against by McCaber and the late Legate himself), has backfired really abominably, so let's by any means not base any more lynchings on this!
What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious. On the other hand, her killing may be a wolvish attempt to frame Nog, rather than (or in addition to) Inzil.

So I'm inclined to think both Nog and Zil rather innocent at the moment, and I'm also inclined to look for the majority of our wolves among

• the supporters of The Plan and
• the Legate bandwagon.

In other words, they're safely hiding in a huge crowd. This won't be easy.

(x-ed with Nerwen: good point about wilwa.)