Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

He didn’t have a lot of time to analyze so he went with his gut. Not the best because his gut was wrong but not unheard of for Day One.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

Mentions how we are probably going to lynch Legate even though he is professing his innocence which can very well be a sign of guilt. It seems he is trying to dissuade people from listening to Legate. This was kind of a crucial time before Legate had too many votes so that is interesting. I don’t know… something about the wording and such in this post strikes me as odd. He seems like he is distancing himself from the village.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

Votes early even though he says he will be back by deadline. 3rd vote for Legate so at this time there could still be time for a different lynch candidate. Makes a random statement about Alona lurking that looks like a possible set up for if she did happen to come back… slightly unsettling.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Pretty self-explanatory…

Originally Posted by Hakon

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Logical.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Doesn’t want to lynch Zil. Thinks Pitchwife is suspicious for really faulty reasoning.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Still doesn’t want to lynch Zil but no longer finds Pitchwife suspicious… actually votes to protect him.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

Originally Posted by Hakon

[lynch vote]++Nienna[/lynch vote]

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Really really doesn’t want to vote Zil so votes for me instead… based on a gut feeling which has been proven a faulty way of reasoning already this game.

Originally Posted by Hakon

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.