Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.

This is pretty much the best thing ever, by the way.


Internet's flaring up again so I'll be back with my Hakon post when I can.

[Nienna]

Since I was mostly done when Sally posted hers... here is just a different perspective and now I shall go read hers.

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Warning us about how the wolves could manipulate the guarded with only sending in one Night kill. This looks as if it could be a wolf with insider knowledge.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

[lynch vote]++ wilwa[/lynch vote]

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

Seems reasonable.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

Says he’s willing to lynch Legate today and sort it out later but it will depend on the rest of the Day… even though the day before he warned us of this exact thing.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

The bolded part is notable… not sure why he didn’t want the Day to be interesting. He seems not sure whether or not to join against Legate.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

[lynch vote]++ Inziladun[/lynch vote]

This makes a little bit more sense considering how he did warn us of the possible wolf trap for lynching Legate… but earlier in the day it seemed like he was feeling out how everyone would react to Legate before voting him. I don’t know but it seems like he is trying to stay out of the wagon and then voting for wolf. Both of these things could be done by a wolf.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

It is actually highly possible that one of the non-Legate voters is a wolf because they would know Legate was innocent and want to be able to claim innocence later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I’m not really sure why he brought up The Plan again. This was Day Three and it hadn’t been talked about in a while… really random.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

Even after this analysis I’m still confused by McCaber. He bears close watching though.

[Pitchwife]

Nog, direct answer to your direct question:
1. The Plan
When I first heard our Mayor set forth the special rules about the NG, I more or less had the same idea Mnemo suggested. As we didn't know our roles at that time, I considered how I, in case I was made a wolf, would like to deal with something like The Plan, if it came up. I thought it would be quite plain to see that such a plan, if followed through, would be in the best interest of the village, and arguing against it would be a) difficult and b) likely to cause suspicion. So what should the wolves, according to my reasoning, do? Hardly bring the suggestion up themselves, but support it when it came up, and then find a way to circumvene it.
So, assuming the actual wolves were thinking remotely like I was thinking as a hypothetical wolf, it would make sense to look for them among the supporters of The Plan, wouldn't it? (Not Mnemo herself, of course, but at least some of those who argued for her. And remember, I was among those, so I was actually inviting people to have a close look at me.)
2. The Legwagon / Zil voters
I was about to say the reasoning is all in the post you quoted from, but looking back now I realize there's actually an appalling fault in my reasoning there. Quoting myself:

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent?

The answer to the question is actually in the sentence before it. If Zil was a wolf (as we now know he was), and one of his packmates voted for him, then Lommy's death (=confirmed innocence) would make that packmate look better for voting with her. How I failed to realize that at the time, I can't tell. If I had, I wouldn't have been quite so confident in my Inzil frame theory.
But the short answer to your question is: yes, in both cases I said what I said because I really thought so myself at the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog's last.