Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Craydon1]

Poor Green. As for Pitch, have any interesting dreams last night? And I promise to get some sort of justification for my votes from now on. I claim newb status on that one.

[wilwarin538]

Greenie's posts, I don't think I missed any.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Hello friends! I am here, obviously I have not much to say except that SPM looks disturbing and Inziladun looks fishy, and that's about the worst joke ever and not even new. I find it sort of funny that the posts this far have been pretty much people repeating and repeating that we have to be active and contributing. Of course there is the basic Day 1 problem of where to start the discussion in the first place.

As for what comes to taking or not taking kindly to people who are quiet, well, we're back to the traditional loud-quiet debate, and I stand where I always do: different people play with different styles, and I know of no one who would have the authority to define what is enough contribution and what isn't. Still, I don't of course cherish the kind of "pop in, vote, disappear" -tactic unless you're really really busy, and I think everyone should contribute as much as they can. Some people just have less to say (like me), a briefer way of phrasing their thoughts, or less time on their hands. Those, I think, should not be reasons for not taking kindly to people. Making no effort, on the other hand, should.


EDIT: x-ed with Lari!!! I x-ed with someone! Wonderful!

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Exactly. I think we often forget that it's actually possible to lynch a wolf on Day 1. We easily fall into thinking that Day 1 is a hopeless case and that we're bound to lynch an innocent (or the Seer). That, of course, is a most unhelpful attitude. We definitely have a chance of catching a wolf toDay and we should not forget that.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm here and reading, have less time than I thought so I'll probably have to suffer SPM and Nogrod's wrath and be very inactive toDay.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

++ SpM

Worth a try, certainly. I lean towards trusting Pitchie (it would make sense, given that he was under threat of getting lynched himself and all that) and even if SpM was innocent we have a baddie toMorrow. In any case this is about the strongest reason for voting someone I've ever had on Day 1.

Other than that, I'm in a bit of a hurry, but I'll say that Crayon (love the name!!), Wilwa and Hakon lean innocent and that I'm keeping an eye on Nog (as always).

Hehe, I wondered whether anyone would get the joke... Yeah, but like I said I'll try to be more active in the future.

Gonna go catch up on everything else now. Maybe collect all of SPM's posts.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, having looked at Greenie's posts, she didn't say much, had no stated suspicions, and only voted for SPM after Pitchwife came forward. I think this has to be chalked up to a safety kill. They couldn't go for Pitch because he'd almost certainly be protected, so they picked as trailess a kill as possible.

I will have some insight on SPM and his statements in a little bit. I am also waiting for Pitchwife. Even if the person you dreamed of innocent, it will at least give us a known innocent in the village.

Edit: Crossed

[Nienna]

Pitchie: I'm really sorry about suspecting you. I had no real suspects and had to leave early and you felt a bit off to me. Now I know why...

I wonder why Greenie. Always the possibility of a no trail kill... or it could be maybe they thought she was the ranger... thoughts?

Edit: x-ed with a bunch

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nienna

I wonder why Greenie. Always the possibility of a no trail kill... or it could be maybe they thought she was the ranger... thoughts?

I'd lean more toward the lack of a trail. I just don't see anything else.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, but THAT screams "wolf" to me. Because really. I completely disagree with what Hakon did (and I said so), but then, if you try to think of it deeper... Would Hakon do such a thing as a Wolf? Or, is it any indication of his wolfishness? Also, like I said, I can well imagine even innocent Hakon being so "rude" and vote in the way he did. Also, what is the Wolves' purpose? It's to find a person whom the others suspect and vote for him/her as well, in order to hide in the crowd, or to find somebody to whom they can draw the suspicion of other villagers. But would what Hakon just did be a good opportunity to find a target for the village? I doubt it. I doubt Hakon-Wolf could have hoped for getting Inzil lynched by saying what he did. These were no reasons which would create a bandwagon.
But voting for Hakon at the moment when it seems that there is a good point to catch on, now that is what wilwa does. And that actually looks like a good start of a bandwagon, indeed! That's why it screams wolfy to me. And anyway, wilwa, if you are accusing Hakon of having bad logic and that he should be better, look at your own vote for him. "I don't like him" is about as bad logic as Hakon uses. No, really. You are either being hypocritical, or being a Wolf.

"I don't like him" because of his bad logic. I think that's fairly logical. I came on yesterday expecting to do a random vote cause it was still fairly early and I hadn't yet seen anyone suspicious, but I saw the "Inzil's been a wolf so many times he might be now too" and found it to be the most suspicious thing so far, therefore I voted for him. Better then a random vote, which is what it would have been otherwise.

And I suggested everyone say something (whether it was substantial or not) I didn't mean everyone should post 20 random times and talk about tuna fish and unicorns, I meant that they could post atleast once and simply agree/disagree or re-state stuff and that would be better then nothing. [/defence]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You think I don't know that? I would have preferred to handle this more subtly, if I could, but just so we don't mess up:
I know for a fact The Saucepan Man is a wolf.
How? Well, guess!
I'm the Dreamer.

Initially I thought this seemed a bit premature, cause he was not guaranteed to get lynched (heck, it probably would have been me). But I can see why he'd do this, everything happens so fast at the end of the Day that waiting may have made it too late for him. So good job Pitch! Really curious to know who you dreamt of.

I agree that Greenie was probably just a no-trail kill. Nothing really stands out from her posts. Since the Dreamer was already out in the open the wolves didn't have to worry about trying to catch him, so a no-trail is the next best thing.

I gotta get some studying done (exam tomorrow) and then get off to class, but I'll be back in a few hours and will post a list or something.

x'ed with Kit

[Roa_Aoife]

SPM throws serious suspicion at Pitchwife (who we know to be innocent) and Loslote. I highly doubt that SPM would seriously try to lynch a fellow wolf so early in the game. It’s simply not his style.

He throws somewhat serious suspicion towards Inzil based on a supposed connection with Pitch, which we know to be false. This could be either another attempt to throw suspicion on an innocent, or an attempt to distance himself from a fellow wolf and set up another play. In the event that Inzil got lynched (he was in the lead at this point) and turned out to be a wolf, make it easier to kill Pitch whom SPM would have known to be innocent.

He throws mild but not serious suspicion at Nogrod, but it has little merit. Could be an attempt to distance himself from fellow wolves. He does so again later, this time adding in Legate. So he “suspects” Nogrod but not strongly.

He attempts to build a strong case against Loslote which some people do in fact bite onto. I think it’s safe to leave Loslote for now. He also says he suspects Nerwen and Larien, but I can’t find his reason for doing so.

SPM probably threw mild suspicion onto one wolf and completely ignored the other. In this case, it would make Inzil, Nogrod, Nerwen, and Larien as people to be looked at. Based solely on SPM's posts, Nogrod is the most suspicious, but I intentionally ignored him on Day 1 so as to not get drawn into a clash and waste the village's time. I will look at him more closely now that I have a reason for doing so.

[Kitanna]

Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen all are players SpM mentioned beyond his first in character post. I think that's everyone at least. In his vote post he mentioned being wary of Pitchwife, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen, and in the end voted for Loslote.

Now since it was only Day 1 I wonder how much distant he would have put between himself and the other wolves. I'm going to believe Pitchwife is telling us the truth because I doubt a baddie would do a false reveal so early, especially with only mediocre suspicion around them. So that leaves Inzil, Larien, Loslote, and Nerwen as SpM suspects. Based on SpM's vote I'm the least wary of Loslote. However, I'm going to go check out their posts, as well as the posts of the other people SpM mentioned in seriousness.

As for Greenie she was probably a no trace kill.

Ok off to review some posts.

[Kitanna]

Inzil
Post 1: In character
Post 2: Comments on a post made by Greenie. Mentions there is a difference between playing style and a "a non-entity that slips quietly through the cracks"
Post 4: Thinks Nogrod and SpM overreacted to Pitchwife's first post.
Post 5: Comments on Craydon's idea of asking questions of the village.
Post 7: Comments on Hakon's vote. Mentions SpM, but it looks like this is only an example of not using meta-game voting.
Post 8: Throws some suspicion Loslote's way. Also he mentions Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote as seeming a bit odd. Decides to stay away from Craydon based on newness and Hakon for being his usual self.
Post 10: Asks Pitchie if revelation was a bit premature.
Post 11: Votes SpM
Post 12: Says Pitchie could be the agent, but decides whatever happens on Day 1 will give us something for Day 2.
The posts I left out weren't anything of real interest, mostly just quick responses to this or that.
In conclusions, Inzil doesn't seem good or bad either way. He voted like everyone else did after the reveal so there's nothing to go on there. He mentioned all three of the knowns (SpM, Greenie, and Pitchie), but didn't really say much about any of them. As far as I can tell Inzil didn't really find anyone suspcious, though he did have a few things to say about Loslote and Nienna, but none of that suggested he'd have voted for them yesterday.

Lariren
Post 1: Mostly Day 1 jabber. Agrees we should stay positive about catching a wolf that day.
Post 2: Puts a little suspicion out there on SpM, suggesting he could have been trying to hint to the wolves to "play their parts". Suggests Hakon may be trying to throw off suspicion by throwing it on SpM. Questions Loslote's jump on Craydon's idea.
Post 3: Vote count, lists suspects. Loslote, Hakon, SPM, and Brinn make her need watching list. Wilwa alone falls in the "keep them around" list.
Post 4: Explains what she meant about keeping Wilwa around, wanted to say seems innocent in a new way. Mentions Nienna's reaction to her vote, but doesn't find it anything special. Another vote count.
Post 5: Wary of Pitchie's reveal, says she'll vote SpM or possibly Hakon.
To me Lariren seems a bit more dodgy than Inzil, but not by a lot. In her list she says who she wants to watch and why, but doesn't say much else about what she thinks. Her vote for SpM isn't a surprise and I think she might have voted that way regardless of the reveal.

That's what I have time for now. ToDay is a bad day for me because of work. I'll be around for an hour or so in a few hours then I'll reappear once more about four hours before DL. I'll finish my looks into those SpM suspected and talked about later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

As far as I can tell Inzil didn't really find anyone suspcious, though he did have a few things to say about Loslote and Nienna, but none of that suggested he'd have voted for them yesterday.

Actually, until Pitch's reveal, I have to say I was leaning toward Loslote. I didn't like her vote for Pitch, as it seemed to me she was simply grasping at the comments made by SPM and Nog (that I had noted earlier I thought were overreactions on their parts), and using them to justify her suspicion of Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Good morning, fellow citizens! Cthulhu smiled on us yesterDay, but last Night the waters of my dreams were cloudy as far as the scrying of wolves is concerned. I can identify an innocent, but unfortunately that will not help us much, as the wolves have revealed her role before me. In other words, Greenie was my dream (because she really fooled me last time around, I have a bad habit of not looking at her closely enough, and she hadn't posted much to judge her from otherwise).
Unfortunately, it looks like I won't be able to help Innsmouth much more except by ordinary guesswork - unless the Priest pulled off a daring gamble last Night and refrained from protecting me. Makes me have second thoughts about that early reveal now... but it can't be helped.

[Pitchwife]

While I'm talking - I'm not sure how much we'll gain from The Saucepan Wolf's posts. I reckon he'd be cunning enough not to implicate his packmates in any obvious way, and I wouldn't put it beyond him to passingly suspect, or even vote, one of them. His vote for Lottie surely makes her look innocent for now, but it's not conclusive evidence.

Originally Posted by Roa

I highly doubt that SPM would seriously try to lynch a fellow wolf so early in the game.

In my eyes, giving somebody a single vote without a solid case behind it long before DL doesn't exactly amount to 'seriously trying to lynch' her; but I suppose you're more familiar with SpM's style than I am. If we only consider her own posts, Lottie looks unsuspicious enough to me.

[Nienna]

Nog analysis:

Note: I've had to remove the smilies as one isn't allowed to post more than 3 in one post.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That is an interesting concept for the new cosmology... we may need to study that further...

Well, of course you don't as no one has done anything.

So think of a detective.... How does one get to start making conclusions? Well, when there is data to build the deductions on. And are there any right now? No.

It's so sad a student of parallel universes has to tell you this universe is dull and void...

And without meaning.

Unless we find some. Let me see...

First post… wants to find some data to build suspicion on

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's take the infamous rule that one of the first posters is a wolf as they have a desire to be active...So SPaM, Pitchie, Inzil, Loslote...?

I would be surpriesed indeed if one of them was not a wolf but then again being among the first ones to post should not be a reason to lynch anyone on any Day as such.

Anyway, shouldn't you guys be able to make even one case against someone so that we could get actually started?


Let me show you an example at this time of the Day... (sad it is but it's something compared to what you have done this far)

SPM is just so nice (and a perfect cover making that funny list and all) - but as he has not been around for years I would not like to suggest lynching him toDay on that... Be there real reasons it'd be different.

I get a bit disturbing feeling from Pitchie's first post. It feels like he tries to look like a critical and autonomous person but still rubbing Spm the right way... Also the way he praises Greenie for great points looks more like trying to make friends than actually giving a verdict on something to the benefit of the townsfolk. So slightly worrying.

Inzil manages to post thrice to say nothing in particular. Suspicious.

Loslote looks either lost (with time?) or just pure evil. Nienna looks no better...

But Wilwa then? All the showed optimism and the explanations of not being around all the time... Just what a wolf would write... keeping up appearances, you know?

Lari I'm a bit baffled about as she says basically the same the others before her but I'm not as suspicious of her. Maybe that means she actually is a baddie?

I always suspect Greenie - and she is always a bad girl! Now this much praised talk of the general terms is just what an intelligent wolf would do. Stay on the abstract level and speak of things people would like to hear and agree on. The most basic wolf-tactics...

Legate seems a bit disinterested as well. Nothing to go for without some toil, sure but maybe he's being too easy?

The thing fitting for every wolf: the more we just keep on saying "hi there, nice to meet you" or "let's kill the bastards"; or taking the meta-level in the beginning like "the quiet ones can be productive / should be lynched immediately"; or just plain refusing to "open the game" with any suspicions...

So let's do the town a favour and not lynch the controversial people but a nice one.

The wolwes need to be nice, we don't. The wolves don't need to find the culprits, we have to do that.

They can rub you the right way anyrime, we can't afford that with anyone.

Think about that unless you had more important things to think about...

This post is interesting. He makes comments about early posters and it actually turned out that the first person to post was a wolf. I’m not really sure why he brought that up as it doesn’t seem like a point most people find serious… maybe he had insider knowledge?

The rest of the post is basically a normal Nog rant about killing the quiet ones.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why wouldn't you do it Wilwa?

And I actually mean it whatever your role is. If you get lynched early because of what you say but thus help us others to spot a wolf you'll be a hero. So be brave and open your mind! Why can't you?

And anyway, why will not everyone say things aloud?

Okay the first posters are a thing in themselves as there is nothing to build any opinios on but already now I think there is a lot to be said (which I have kind of tried to exemplify in my last post).

So there are no more excuses to say just "hello", "have a good Day" or "let's get those bastards"...

That's like over and done with.

It would be much better if you actually said something yourself and not just called for others to say something - as reasonable as that call is in itself.

The wolves love to take that kind of a posture: say what is wise but not expose their own necks to actually do that which they think the others should do...

Okay. Sleep for me as well now but I'll be back later in the Day...

Reaffirms points from his last post, challenges Wilwa to actually say something controversial that may expose a wolf. He keeps saying things like this but then doesn’t really say anything controversial of his own…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Exactly. Although it should be added that it's difficult, or probably even impossible , to ignore all the meta-reasons one has for suspecting people on Day1. But it's a different thing to have suspicions based on some meta-reasons than to try and argue for ones votes with them.

Like I just can't help it that because Greenie has so totally fooled me a few times lately and I have the feeling she's always a baddie it makes me suspect her also on this Day. Or if I thought the mod had made a slip in the narration I couldn't help that thought affecting my suspicions, but I couldn't argue my "case" based on that slip as it would be kind of "unsporty" (some of you might remember Glirdan's game where he slipped the gender of the last wolf in the narration that one being the only one of that sex left).

So let's try not to suspect people based on meta-reasons and at least not use them as arguments...


Okay. Off with the meta-reason discussion with me.

I need to make a pie for the girls but I will think while doing it. But just from the last posts a few little things...

Somehow the way how Lari makes her comment on wilwa strikes me: It may be that she just wished to express herself differently (there are many of whom she says only "seems innocent" or "pretty innocent looking" etc.). But of wilwa she says that we should keep her around with actual backing / arguments for why she thinks so. And I think there had been some suspicions raised on wilwa, so that would fit "nicely" ...

Secondly I do share Legate's concern on Nienna. The way she reacted to one badly backed vote early in the voting really looks like she felt the whole village was after her. And that's something the wolves tend to feel more easily than innocents.

EDIT: X'd with wilwa

Doesn’t want to use meta game reasons for suspicion, begins to find me suspicious because I defended myself against Morsul’s vote. This seems like a timid latch onto Legate’s suspicion maybe to see if it would lead to my lynching…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's interesting you say that you think that those who see Nienna's reactions to a first vote of the Day as over-nervous á la wolves are suspicious but then base your own vote on something as solid as what you say in the quote above...

Wouldn't this quote of yours describe also your vote and your reasons for it?


Okay. Yes, there's very little to go on as usual on Day1 and we all have to find whatever there could be to help us in our judgements. I think you Spm are reading way too much in Loslote's indecisiveness and I see more merit in the fact that Nienna reacted so strongly on the vote on her. I don't think either is a good "case" in any way but both are better than nothing.

But are they or either of them correct arguments? That's the tough one...

EDIT: X'd with Roa

Wolf on wolf with SPM and Nog?... I don’t know…

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay.

Apart from Nienna I seem to have only one decent pair of candidates which is Lari and wilwa - and I need to run for the choir rehearsals in a moment.

Now I see many people have raised concerns with wilwa but just suggesting that people should talk a lot even if they don't have a lot to say is not the greatest possible argument against her. Actually it doesn't make her look guilty in any way. But the sudden defence of her by Lari (with actual points why - which she gave practically of none else) when some suspicion started to emerge raises my eyebrows to be sure.

I just saw Nienna's post and am not sure what to say of it. Her explanation feels genuinish but it reminds me of yet one thing that looked so overdefensive about her, eg. quoting herself in the admin. thread before the roles were dealt. If that is not over-defensive then what is?

And I am a bit confused about her vote as well...

Bah. Needs to vote now.

++ Nienna


EDIT: X'd with Kit

He votes for me even though he thought my explanation was genuinish, but then said that I was over defensive and apparently that makes me a wolf. This seems like a pretty good way to start a bandwagon.

In summary I think Nog is one of the more suspicious people toDay.

[Pitchwife]

And stating the obvious, Roa looks pretty good up to now. She was quite energetic in her suspicion of SpM and the only one who voted him before I revealed.
Among those who voted after said reveal, Lari is the only one who had voiced suspicion of SpM earlier and, as Kit points out, might have voted him anyway. Looks good as well.