Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lariren Shadow · 10-17-2009, 07:02 PM

Sorry I haven't been around, I'm working on a major project about, ironically enough, the werewolf in Marie de France.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

Or is the whole scenario flawed in some basic way? I need to do some work but will return to these questions - and others in an hour or two.

It seems like the wolves feel comfortable at the moment. That maybe they thought that going after one of those who revealed was just a bad idea in general. Either you get blocked by Hakon's protection, or blocked by Wilwa's protection.

The question is then why didn't they go after Hakon? Wilwa said she would be protecting herself, and I'm not sure if that is even in the rules, but then why not kill him? Is it because he is a wolf or is he the Agent and they think that is a ploy for them? What if our thinking that Morsul is the Agent is wrong? What if he is a newbie wolf, told by his packmate to reveal falsely? Or could Hakon's not death point to that he is a wolf and possibly that Morsul is also a wolf and they planned a whole double reveal planning on not killing Pitch because the logical thing for the real Priest to do would be to protect the Dreamer?

Or this could be all farfetched.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

Maybe they wanted to keep us questioning for a Day longer?

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 07:30 PM

Alright, I'm back. I'm going to do my analysis of Nerwen. As far as what's been said: I don't think Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting people. Other than her, no one has been paying attention to Brinn. She is, for better or worse, slipping under the radar. So even if she's been making straight on statements, they have not been the kind that grab attention. The fact that this is the first we've considered it is proof enough. I'll have a better idea once I do my own analysis of her, which will come after the analysis of Nerwen.

Hakon · 10-17-2009, 08:14 PM

Morsul is a wolf. I have just spent about an hour thinking of plans I would hatch if I were a wolf in this game. It occurred to me that the ideal thing to do is let the newbie wolf reveal as a false gifted and then make a slip up on purpose in order to be brushed off as the cobbler/agent and that Wilwa might be the real agent.

I know you all do not like these methods I am about to use but I find them very useful.

First let us take a look at the known wolf. SPM was an experienced player playing for the first time in a while. He was made a wolf. Wilwa might be a wolf, also an experienced player and playing for the first time in a while. Morsul might be a wolf and he is a newbie, this is his first time playing. Anyone noticed the pattern emerging? If we follow that pattern then Lostole or Crayon person is the final wolf. This is Lostole's second game and Crayon guys first. All of these people here are playing for the first time in a while or are new. I doubt both Morsul and Lostole or Morsul and Crayon man are wolves. I would say we can cross Crayon boy off the list.

Let us recap briefly, SPM was a wolf. Either Wilwa or Morsul is a wolf or the agent. I think Lostole is the final wolf. More likely Wilwa is a wolf then the agent since she is experienced and can properly guide Lostole through the game.

To sum things up the agent is Morsul and the remaining wolves are Lostole and Wilwa.

Lariren Shadow · 10-17-2009, 08:19 PM

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

I didn't even see that. Good catch, Lari.

Inziladun · 10-17-2009, 08:37 PM

Looking at Loslote (not comprehensive, just things I found notable)

Day 1:

# 9- Said she would probably be dead by Day 3

# 40- Jumped on Craydon's idea about answering a random question, complied.

# 57- Defended Craydon's idea, saying wolves would 'try to distract' when answering the question.

I didn't, and still don't see how doing what Craydon suggested was any help at all.

# 58- Laid out SPM and Pitch as top suspects, but said would likely vote the latter because he was 'joking, trying to get on everyone's good side'.
And she did vote for Pitch.

Day 2:

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 08:57 PM

I think you lost half your post there, Inzil.

Hakon · 10-17-2009, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

Yes I know. The first line was the original thought that led to the last line which was the final thought.

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 10:12 PM

Brinniel

Day 1

Post 1- Nothing but fluff

Post 2- Explains to Hakon that one's status as a player has nothing to do with the role one is assigned, doesn't like that Crayon and Loslote don't really give reasons for their votes

Post 3- Doesn't think Nienna is suspicious, is wary of people who want to lynch Hakon early in the game (namely Wilwa), gives Crayon the newbie pass, thinks some good points have been brought up against Loslote

This post comes about 15 minutes after Picth's reveal and has no cross-post marker. The points against Loslote are primarily from SPM at this point, who has just revealed to be a wolf by the seer.

Post 4- Believes Pitch, votes SPM

This post is 20 minutes after her last one. Why the long wait? Hoping for a miracle?

Post 5- Understands why Pitch revealed but thinks it was premature.

The only suspicious thing is how long she took to react to Pitch, but that could easily be explained by RL reasons.

Day 2

Post 1- Suggests that Morsul may be the wolf and that we should lynch him at some point just to be safe, but also says that he may be a very confused ordo. Thinks Wilwa is more likely to be the Ranger than Hakon

Well, she's either over thinking or trying to stir up confusion, and I can't say which. It's very easy for anyone to get caught in the trap of over-thinking. Nienna did the same and got lynched for it, so I'm hesitant to make a judgement.

Post 2- Agrees that we should focus away from the mess of gifteds

Post 3- Response to Nerwen: doesn't think Nienna is suspicious for her comment

Post 4- Basic thoughts on the Day: Legate- more innocent than not, Roa- makes sense but is still Roa, ergo untrustworthy, Loslote- inclined to exonerate her based on SPM's vote, Inzil- bad vibes, Kitanna- wants to keep an eye on her

She is, I believe, the only person to mention Kitanna in a somewhat negative light.

Post 5- Says we probably won't know the ranger by the kill, feels uneasy about Wilwa, Says Legate has a good point about Inzil, finds Inzil creepy

Legate misquoted Inzil, who was not, in fact, trying to make it seem as though Pitch was lying but instead explaining was he wouldn't be. So Brinn's suspicion on this is flawed. But she's basing it off what someone else said, so she's either being taken in or she's continuing on purpose, and I have no way to tell.

Post 6- Has a bad feeling about the Nienna bandwagon, doesn't want to vote Nogrod because she hasn't really looked at him

Post 7- Goes with her gut and votes Inzil

I don't see a problem with this. She didn't think either candidate was wolfish, so she did what most of us do and voted for the person she found more suspicious. Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should.

Day 3

No show yet

Her suspicions on Day 1 are unclear, but then, so are a lot of people's. Her suspicions on Day 2 amount to "creepy Inzil." One could argue that there is plenty to go on and form an opinion with than a gut feeling, but that is the only suspicious thing about her. If we continue on and I still don't get a clear vibe from her, I may reconsider her because she could very easily be slipping through the cracks. Especially if she's still alive when our known innocents and gifted are gone, since the wolves seem to be favoring the quiet kills.

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 10:24 PM

Final thought before I head off to bed:

ToMorrow's kill should tell us a great deal- if they have the ability to kill the seer (because Hakon is the Ranger) I think they will, because even if it all goes bad toDay (we lynch an innocent) that will leave us with 11 players, two of whom we know the identity of, two of whom we know to have a 50/50 chance of being a wolf. Leaving 7 people standing a chance of being a wolf. If Pitch is alive and has dreamed of an innocent, that will leave 6, which means for each of the innocents only 5 people to look at. That would be considerably small numbers.

There is also the possibility the seer will dream of the last wolf, and with one already out in the open, that is something they can't afford. So if they don't kill Pitch tonight, and kill Nogrod instead, it will be because they can't, which would make Wilwa the Ranger.

Of course no matter what they do, that's still leaves 3 known people at least: If they don't kill Pitch, then it would be Pitch, Morsul, and whoever Pitch dreams of. If Pitch is dead, then it's Nogrod, Morsul, and Hakon. However, in the first scenario, we would still be certain of one of the wolves and known the other was hiding in a much lower number.

Nogrod, Pitch, what do you think?

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 08:19 PM

Roles are decided at random, Hakon. A player's style or status has nothing to do with it. We explained this the first Day. We have almost three Days worth of material to look at in order to find a wolf. Look at that if you want to bring forth legitimate reasoning.

10-17-2009, 07:30 PM	#2
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Alright, I'm back. I'm going to do my analysis of Nerwen. As far as what's been said: I don't think Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting people. Other than her, no one has been paying attention to Brinn. She is, for better or worse, slipping under the radar. So even if she's been making straight on statements, they have not been the kind that grab attention. The fact that this is the first we've considered it is proof enough. I'll have a better idea once I do my own analysis of her, which will come after the analysis of Nerwen. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

10-17-2009, 08:14 PM	#3
Hakon Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2009 Location: The Twilight Zone Posts: 736	Morsul is a wolf. I have just spent about an hour thinking of plans I would hatch if I were a wolf in this game. It occurred to me that the ideal thing to do is let the newbie wolf reveal as a false gifted and then make a slip up on purpose in order to be brushed off as the cobbler/agent and that Wilwa might be the real agent. I know you all do not like these methods I am about to use but I find them very useful. First let us take a look at the known wolf. SPM was an experienced player playing for the first time in a while. He was made a wolf. Wilwa might be a wolf, also an experienced player and playing for the first time in a while. Morsul might be a wolf and he is a newbie, this is his first time playing. Anyone noticed the pattern emerging? If we follow that pattern then Lostole or Crayon person is the final wolf. This is Lostole's second game and Crayon guys first. All of these people here are playing for the first time in a while or are new. I doubt both Morsul and Lostole or Morsul and Crayon man are wolves. I would say we can cross Crayon boy off the list. Let us recap briefly, SPM was a wolf. Either Wilwa or Morsul is a wolf or the agent. I think Lostole is the final wolf. More likely Wilwa is a wolf then the agent since she is experienced and can properly guide Lostole through the game. To sum things up the agent is Morsul and the remaining wolves are Lostole and Wilwa. __________________ Medicine for the soul. ~Inscription over the door of the Library at Thebes

10-17-2009, 08:19 PM	#4
Lariren Shadow Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Where the day meets the night Posts: 607	Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right? __________________ Choose treachery, its more fun!

10-17-2009, 08:37 PM	#6
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	Looking at Loslote (not comprehensive, just things I found notable) Day 1: # 9- Said she would probably be dead by Day 3 # 40- Jumped on Craydon's idea about answering a random question, complied. # 57- Defended Craydon's idea, saying wolves would 'try to distract' when answering the question. I didn't, and still don't see how doing what Craydon suggested was any help at all. # 58- Laid out SPM and Pitch as top suspects, but said would likely vote the latter because he was 'joking, trying to get on everyone's good side'. And she did vote for Pitch. Day 2: __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 10-17-2009 at 08:40 PM. Reason: typo

10-17-2009, 08:57 PM	#7
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I think you lost half your post there, Inzil. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

10-17-2009, 10:12 PM	#9
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Brinniel Day 1 Post 1- Nothing but fluff Post 2- Explains to Hakon that one's status as a player has nothing to do with the role one is assigned, doesn't like that Crayon and Loslote don't really give reasons for their votes Post 3- Doesn't think Nienna is suspicious, is wary of people who want to lynch Hakon early in the game (namely Wilwa), gives Crayon the newbie pass, thinks some good points have been brought up against Loslote This post comes about 15 minutes after Picth's reveal and has no cross-post marker. The points against Loslote are primarily from SPM at this point, who has just revealed to be a wolf by the seer. Post 4- Believes Pitch, votes SPM This post is 20 minutes after her last one. Why the long wait? Hoping for a miracle? Post 5- Understands why Pitch revealed but thinks it was premature. The only suspicious thing is how long she took to react to Pitch, but that could easily be explained by RL reasons. Day 2 Post 1- Suggests that Morsul may be the wolf and that we should lynch him at some point just to be safe, but also says that he may be a very confused ordo. Thinks Wilwa is more likely to be the Ranger than Hakon Well, she's either over thinking or trying to stir up confusion, and I can't say which. It's very easy for anyone to get caught in the trap of over-thinking. Nienna did the same and got lynched for it, so I'm hesitant to make a judgement. Post 2- Agrees that we should focus away from the mess of gifteds Post 3- Response to Nerwen: doesn't think Nienna is suspicious for her comment Post 4- Basic thoughts on the Day: Legate- more innocent than not, Roa- makes sense but is still Roa, ergo untrustworthy, Loslote- inclined to exonerate her based on SPM's vote, Inzil- bad vibes, Kitanna- wants to keep an eye on her She is, I believe, the only person to mention Kitanna* in a somewhat negative light.* Post 5- Says we probably won't know the ranger by the kill, feels uneasy about Wilwa, Says Legate has a good point about Inzil, finds Inzil creepy Legate misquoted Inzil, who was not, in fact, trying to make it seem as though Pitch was lying but instead explaining was he wouldn't be. So Brinn's suspicion on this is flawed. But she's basing it off what someone else said, so she's either being taken in or she's continuing on purpose, and I have no way to tell. Post 6- Has a bad feeling about the Nienna bandwagon, doesn't want to vote Nogrod because she hasn't really looked at him Post 7- Goes with her gut and votes Inzil I don't see a problem with this. She didn't think either candidate was wolfish, so she did what most of us do and voted for the person she found more suspicious. Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should. Day 3 No show yet Her suspicions on Day 1 are unclear, but then, so are a lot of people's. Her suspicions on Day 2 amount to "creepy Inzil." One could argue that there is plenty to go on and form an opinion with than a gut feeling, but that is the only suspicious thing about her. If we continue on and I still don't get a clear vibe from her, I may reconsider her because she could very easily be slipping through the cracks. Especially if she's still alive when our known innocents and gifted are gone, since the wolves seem to be favoring the quiet kills. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

10-17-2009, 10:24 PM	#10
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Final thought before I head off to bed: ToMorrow's kill should tell us a great deal- if they have the ability to kill the seer (because Hakon is the Ranger) I think they will, because even if it all goes bad toDay (we lynch an innocent) that will leave us with 11 players, two of whom we know the identity of, two of whom we know to have a 50/50 chance of being a wolf. Leaving 7 people standing a chance of being a wolf. If Pitch is alive and has dreamed of an innocent, that will leave 6, which means for each of the innocents only 5 people to look at. That would be considerably small numbers. There is also the possibility the seer will dream of the last wolf, and with one already out in the open, that is something they can't afford. So if they don't kill Pitch tonight, and kill Nogrod instead, it will be because they can't, which would make Wilwa the Ranger. Of course no matter what they do, that's still leaves 3 known people at least: If they don't kill Pitch, then it would be Pitch, Morsul, and whoever Pitch dreams of. If Pitch is dead, then it's Nogrod, Morsul, and Hakon. However, in the first scenario, we would still be certain of one of the wolves and known the other was hiding in a much lower number. Nogrod, Pitch, what do you think? __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen