TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

etc



Yes, Noggie, I fully understand and all that. But it does give you a good excuse to place a reasonably safe Day 1 vote. At the very least, you are somewhat absolving yourself of responsibility for the Day 1 lynch as it is generally pretty unlikely that your pick will end up being lynched. And I am still not sure that your reasons for picking McCaber stand up to full scrutiny.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Well, this Pitchwolf feller might have wanted to get the Bear lynched in order to avoid the risk of him targetting a Wolf at Night. But I agree that it is not the strongest of points.

Originally Posted by Roa

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay?

Ooh, yes please. But can you wait while I get a big tub of popcorn ...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

I agree, and I would particularly like to hear more from Lari and sally toDay, as I am currently leaning towards voting for one of them.

[Roa_Aoife]

Post 1- Nonsense post, presumably to tell us he wouldn't be around


Post 2- Will be around, but probably won't make it till dead-line. Says the were-bears best strategy is to kill off the wolves, says it serves the bear no benefit to work with the wolves, suggests that we set the wolves and the bear against each other.


Post 3- response to Pitch, explains again how the bear and the wolves will want to knock each other off, joins the chorus in admonishing Hakon.

(Overall, this may have been an attempt to later convince the village to let him live.)


Post 4- General analysis and response to first 55 posts:
First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Slight suspicion of Inzil due to questioning about first poster theory, but it's very slight.

(Slight enough, I think, that it probably doesn't point to Inzil.)

Is most suspicious of Sally

(I think that this actually would point away from Sally, as it would be really obvious.)

Overall, thinks Sauce is innocent in the whole FW confusion

(While it's possible that a wolf SPM may have targeted Boro to point away from himself, I find this unlikely, as it seems you'd want to keep people who think you're innocent around.)

Doesn't understand the suspicion against Roa

(Thankyou. But seriously, if I draw a conclusion from this it would be silly.)

Finds Morsul the most suspicious in the FW discussion.

(Well we know how that turned out)



Post 5- response to Roa, insists the bear and the wolves are enemies


Post 6- response to Morsul: "Fair enough"


Post 7- response to Nogrod: says it's good to state the obvious


Post 8- clarification about Sally suspicion, not bothered by Pitch's vote, finds Morsul the most suspicious, bad feeling about Nogrod

(This seems to point to Nogrod, and away from Greenie. But with Greenie's insistence on lynch Nogrod, I have to wonder if it was planned that way.)

Post 9- read and comment:

Wilwa is ok.

(Pretty neutral in how this regards wilwa.)

Disagrees with Nog about Sauce being the Cobbler

(This doesn't say anything about Nog, really, though it points away from SPM. And again, that may have been the idea, but I find it unlikely.)

McCaber greyed out part of his post

(This niether points to or away from McCaber)

Changes his mind on Nog's suspicion of Greenie, now finds Greenie suspicious.

(So scratch what I said earlier. Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.)


Post 10- Decides not to comment on Hakon since it's been commented on to death. Addresses SPM vs Roa:

Thinks SPM may be over-reacting when he accuses Roa and Nog of being agressive, Thinks SPM may not have been over-reacting to the rest- points out that it's Roa's style to push people hard

(Again, I really can't draw conclusions that anyone else would find credible here.)

Response to Nog- Doesn't think SPM was trying to buddy up to him

(Aside from disagreeing, this is a fairly neutral statement, so it doesn't point one way or the other.)


Post 11- points out Morsul's insistence on the statistical odds of SPM being a wolf.


Post 12- Explains Nogrod's vote for McCaber, but doesn't understand why he didn't vote for Greenie

(Again, this could point to either Nogrod or Greenie, and possibly both, in my opinion.)


Post 13- Considers voting Lari, but votes Morsul instead.

(This is really the only thing that points to Lari, and I'm not sure it's enough. Of the two Hakon voters, Sally seems to obvious, but that could be the idea. )

In general, I find Nogrod and Greenie the most suspicious based solely on this.


Edit: Crossed with a host

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Fea is probably either the cobbler, or a wolf pretending to be the cobbler.

edit: crossed with pitch and Fea. Good, hopefully we'll get some sense out of you now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and that was an analysis of Bearomir's posts. Sorry.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Of course it's cute!

[A Little Green]

++ Sally

I said in my previous post why I don't want to vote Nog toDay. I want to go for a submarine. I ended up on Sally because she is maybe the most evil-looking of the submarines. Decide wisely, I'm off to bed.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

[satansaloser2005]

*glances up, blinks*

Love Fea (or at least her Poe-try) think Saucie might be okay and am worried about Roa and possibly Nog. Pitch seems evil to me and Greenie just voted me for no reason, but people do that a lot so I'll leave it alone for now.

Just some thoughts. Sorry, but I ended up being a lot busier (and a lot sicker) than I intended today. I did warn you I'd be a submarine....


(In other news, I'll read through everything again when I get off work and offer commentary where I see fit/can manage. Then I'll go from there.)


EDIT: x'd with Nog and the Telltale Fea. I bloody love you.

[Pitchwife]

Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.

I was about to ask whether Greenie would keep it up so consistently toDay in this case, but just noticed she's 1. backed off Nog for now and 2. adopted his principle of submarine hunting instead. The reason she gives for 1. sounds reasonable (not wanting to stick to Day 1 suspicions too much) - although, if she had good reasons to suspect him which haven't been invalidated since, why not stick with them? As for 2., I obviously can't find any fault with that, nor with her choice among the subs. (Yes, I remember I voted Boro because he claimed to find sally most suspicious of the subs. I still think neither her early morning jokes nor her vote would be highly suspicious as such, it's both together that worries me. And I'm not saying she's the most suspicious now, but one of four possible candidates.)

[Nogrod]

Do you want to see my "I don't like..." list?

Well, wish it or not, here it comes.

I don't like the way Greenie plays on D1 nor on D2. That vote for me felt just malice-driven then. She knows how I play but didn't give any good explanation for her vote; toDay she continued repeating some off-the-mark things on me and said she would like to make a few questions on me to judge me better (which she never did, so trying to look good only?) - but she didn't make a single notice on what I answered her (and others) on those initial suggestions. On the contrary she acted like I had said nothing to answer her doubts and only dismissed voting me on the grounds that it's not too good to stick with D1 suspicions only. And I can see a scenario where she didn't want to vote me again for the reason that I might actully focus my attention to her this time for good - and now with some reasons backing my possible vote which some others might follow.

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate. The poems and the "novellettes" are fine and entertaining but the substance is greatly lacking. I might vote her just for the frustration, but her vote yesterDay was actually quite suspicious. Many of you have said you wouldn't "put it past Fea" to make such an openly gay nailing vote on an innocent. I would say I would be surprised if she would have handled the situation differently were she a wolf...

I don't like the ever larger compartment of submarines we have around. Whatever Sally's role is, her last post is indicative of the situation... She managed to mention a handful of people: one who stood out because of poetry, another because of voting for her and four because they have been the most vocal... So there the submarines will keep diving under any radar...

I don't like some bandwagonish / easy-going votes from yesterDay and the subsequent silence toDay, mainly Lottie, Sally and Lari...

I don't like McCaber's calculative submarine-approach.

[Roa_Aoife]

I agree with you about Fea, Nogrod. She hasn't been helpful at all, and I would say she's basically not even playing.

Right now, I am seriously considering voting for Fea. My other choice at the moment is Greenie. Her comment about me and Nogrod was forced, and her vote for Sally is too easy, and lacking in any actual reasons.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate.

Why should I interject? You're all doing a wonderful job for me. I'd just get in the way...

To summarize the thoughts de ustedes, which extrapolate on my thoughts:

Borangutan clearly thought one or both of two things: Hakon was the seer, or Hakon was an easy target because everyone was irked that he wouldn't shut his gob about meta.

The more interesting question is why the wolves picked Borangutan, and my guess is that they were thinking one or both of two things: Borangutan was Were-ape (as evidenced by Hakon's commentary), or Borangutan was an easy target.

As far as wolves would be concerned on a Night 2 kill, it doesn't really matter who dies, since everybody's got to go.

The wolves' greatest enemies would be, respectively, the Bear and the Seer. Yes, the Seer can identify, and that's bad, but the Bear can kill somebody each night, and that includes wolves. Wolves have enough worry during the day keeping their pack alive. Add to that the threat of random death at night?

And don't tell me the wolves aren't threatened by a Werebear. The Bear's greatest threat is the wolfpack. It's fairly easy to stay under the radar during the day, whereas at Night, you don't have any say in what happens to you. Yes, the Bear wants people to die at a rapid pace, but as long as one Wolf is alive, you get two kills per Night. The Bear can't win without killing the Wolves, and multiple Wolves (obviously) outnumbers one Bear. It's in the Bear's best interest to kill wolves early so that when it's down to the wire, the Bear is the only one making night kills.

That being said, the Bear is the wolves' great threat because the logical behavior of the Bear is to start sniping wolves.

Therefore if the wolves thought Hakon had found Borangutan, they'd want to kill him while they had the chance, before one of them died.

Therefore, Hakon died either because he was too damned obvious, or too damned annoying, and Boro died either because Hakon was too damned obvious, or the wolves wanted a trail-less kill. Conversation over, and since following the lead of the Seer doesn't really lead back to the wolves so much as it shows that they're paying attention, let's look to the future.

The Ranger can no longer guard two Nights in a row, and there is nobody that stands out right now in terms of needing to be guarded, since most of the 'important' players peaced out already. Without the Hunter and the Seer, the Ranger is left to protect innocents. All of whom seem just about as innocent as the wolves. So I'm viewing tonight as a crapshoot in terms of protection/killing. Odds are in the wolves' favor of getting who they want, and odds are equally in the Ranger's favor of protecting who they pick. Summarized: it's unlikely the Ranger and the Wolves will go after the same person, so most likely somebody's going to die toNight.

The Lovers have not really been discussed, which I think is an unfortunate oversight given the fact that by their very definition they don't care if the village wins, only if they win. Also, it should be born in mind that there are currently two players in constant Daily communication. The question to ask is if the Lovers have the village's best interest at heart.

And then there's the Cobbler. Who obviously doesn't have the village's best interest at heart, and could be anybody, but based on the number of people (self included) drawing the attention of the crowd, it's probably somebody playing reindeer games until they're needed.

My theory: as a village, we should concentrate on two groups:

1) those who appear to be working together

2) those who appear to be invisible

Originally Posted by Roa

I agree with you about Fea, Nogrod. She hasn't been helpful at all, and I would say she's basically not even playing.

Wrong. I'm just not playing the way you think I should be. And when you're the mod, your opinion will matter.

[McCaber]

So I did some thinking on Hakon's posts, and I managed to come up with just about what Fea said: that he dropped one too many seer hints and Boro decided to take the potential risk of suspicion there.

And as for Boro, I think he was probably just a no-trace kill.

[McCaber]

And once more I'm out of time.

++Nogrod

for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.

[Roa_Aoife]

Not a huge fan of it, no. I like capitalism. (Or at least the ideal form of it.)

Ah! McCaber you startled me, jumping in and out so quickly like that. I don't see how Boro could be traceless- he had far too many opinions and suspicions for that. You would have been a no trace kill, as would have Wilwa, or Lari, or Sally, or any of the other submarines.

A no trace kill would have been very easy in this game, and it's practically SOP for wolves on Night 2. But that's not what the wolves did and I think there must be a reason for it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by McCaber

++Nogrod
for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.

And you think this is any better?

[Nogrod]

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

It does look opportunistic, but the same could be said for many of yesterDay's votes. Confusing, to say the least.
Fea, Lari, and Loslote have been mostly in my thoughts toDay.
The reasons are obvious: the Hakon and Morsul voters still look to be the best bet for wolf-spotting.
Question is, who comes off looking the worst?
Fea tacked on the final nail for Morsul, and seemed a bit proud of it.
Lari brought the second vote for Hakon not long after Sally voted him. An ill innocent not having the time or inclination to look over things thoroughly, or an ill wolf jumping onto what looked to be a safe target?
Loslote looked very bad to me when she made the vote for Morsul. Her back-and-forth with him afterwards made her seem a little more innocent, though. I intend to look more closely at things later.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

RoaNot only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

Do you have a theory on what that purpose might be?

x/d with Pitch, and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

Allow me to explain: I'm looking at it from the perspective of the wolves not knowing that Boro was the bear. If they did figure it out, then discussing his death is rather pointless, but we have know way of knowing if they did.

I don't think a wolf would kill someone who blatantly found them to be the most suspicious, as it would quite obviously point to them. I do think that a wolf might kill someone with the goal of making someone else look bad. That's why I initially thought Greenie-wolf may have killed Boromir to make you look bad. But then Boromir did a 180 on the whole thing, suspecting Greenie and not you.

And then I remembered what Greenie said, about a connection between you and me, and I thought about why she would say that when I just ignored you. And then it occurred to me that she may be trying to cover up her own tracks in doing just that. It really would be a perfect cover- one of you always suspects the other, anyways, so no one would find that out of the ordinary. And if one of you got lynched, the other would automatically look good. She fell into the easy vote of voting for you, and you built a suspicion of her and then backed down. It seems rather perfect wolf-on-wolf to me.

As for the rest, I tried to put myself in the position of the wolves, thinking on each person in perspective: a slight suspicion may not be worth killing over. A suspicion that wasn't exactly slight, but wasn't the strongest? Well, that has the potential to be dangerous and grown into the strongest suspicion.

I may be over-thinking it. Boro wasn't shy about discussing the bear, so it's possible the wolves picked him out. Or maybe the wolves just wanted to get rid of a strong player that could be a threat to them later. The point is that we don't know, so we have to continue to look at all the possibilities. This alone wouldn't be enough to lynch anyone, which is why I emphasized the "based solely on this" part.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch and Inzil.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, of course it's purpose oriented. My purpose is to find out why the wolves killed Boro.

[Pitchwife]

Greenie's stated reason for voting Nog yesterDay, other than retaliating, was 'because he makes weak reasons sound big'. Going through his early posts yesterDay (before she first said this) I could find only two points to which she may have referred, other than his suspecting her to be the Bear:
1. his case for SpM being the cobbler, which was chiefly based on the FWI discussion and relied on SpM rather misinterpreting the narration on purpose than being genuinely confused;
2. his suspicion (backed by linguistic nitpicking) that Roa had only pretended to be confused about the number of wolves. Looked overblown to me at the time, but likely a language problem.
Note that he used 1. to corroborate the Greenie=Bear hypothesis:

Originally Posted by Nog #69

It was just an hour before Spm had made his own version of this "heh, you got me" -stuff and now Greenie was responding? It does look like a cobbler / wolf / bear -probing to me.

This seems a bit stretched. Given that Bear and Wolves are natural competitors, would a Bear really want to signal to the Wolves, or the cobbler?
And that's about it. Grasping at straws? Maybe, but on purpose and with malevolent intent?