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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Salalysis, typed in between boughts of tears
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OI! GET YOUR FURRY LITTLE PAWS OFF MY SHIRRIFF!!! ![]() Quote:
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Get off Boro, please. MY Shirriff. Mine. ![]() Quote:
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![]() Is alarmed and surprised by Shasta voting for (her packmate?) Greenie. Bit of an overreaction, dear? Quote:
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Also keeps an evil!Lottie option open. Quote:
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~~~ Conclusion: I still think Sally's a wolf, even more so than before. That Legate vote still looks very suspicious. ~~~ Also, edited out all of Silly Sally's smilies because I was very much over the image limit. EDIT: xed since my last
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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As for Fea being the cobbler, I must say I am happy for the outcome and it seems we were quite lucky. It's not a Wolf, but we don't need to worry about the famous Aganzir's horror scenario, and this is also the only way to be sure and discern a Cobbler from an innocent. So now I am going to recheck who voted whom and whatnot, and maybe come up with some thoughts. Good that Lottie is making her input, as a known innocent, please continue doing so And btw, no need to weep yet, there is still the possibility that Boro might return from the dead (unless you are targeted and killed at Night, however who knows what the Ranger does...)And btw, some people yesterDay voiced suspicion about me according to my vote for Lottie, calling it that I jumped on a bandwagon or something, note please that I kept saying that I am going to vote her (and was quite firmly decided to do that) already quite early, and I was the first one to suspect her as far as I am aware (my post where I said it crossposted I think with somebody saying similar suspicion, but that's it). And for that matter, I didn't even realise for quite a long time that Fea's vote was for her as well (as I didn't think about the vote, considering it a "random vote" which, even more likely, is going to be retracted! - cf. Lommy's theory about that Fea cast it only to retract it later. Anyway, I wasn't considering the vote). So my vote was only my vote and that's also why I kept it even with the concern about "easy lynch crowd" (as I said in reply to Nogrod who voiced that concern). EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen and Lottie
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#3 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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...jk. Don't die. Wolf die instead. Anywho, Boro agreed most fervently about Greenie and Sally. He was not as enthusiastic about Agan and Glirdy, but he did agree that it was likely they were wolfly. He trusted Nienna and Mira most out of everyone who was him or me. Just in case you were wondering. ![]() EDIT: xed with no one but I am sleepy, it's way way way too late, and I'm off to the land of wonders, where I shall dream of waking dead and happier times when no wolf threatened my village. Or chocolate, which ever ends up in my dreams.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 04-10-2010 at 02:42 AM. |
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#4 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Loslote, why are you so sure the wolf quartet is Greenie, Agan, Glirdan and Sally?
And while you answer, I'm really off to check yesterDay. (What did I do before? Checked my bank account - I had got money, yay!, e-mails and had breakfast... )
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#5 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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I've said why I think Sally's a wolf. Boro and I agreed most fervently that Greenie was a wolf based on her vote, general air of apologeticness, and other behaviors that I'll mention in the analysis post I will make tomorrow (as in tomorrow, not toMorrow). Glirdy's actions scream wolf (especially his Shasta vote - vote someone who looks not at all suspicious because he voted for your packmate? ).Agan was a main advocate of my death, but didn't actually vote me and thus stayed out of the spotlight. She mostly seemed to be helping quite a bit but didn't really do much in terms of real contribution. I'll analyze the other three in the morning. For now, I'm too tired and anything I post will be silly.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#6 | |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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And what's this real contribution you're talking about? How is your contribution different from or better than mine?
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-10-2010 at 03:03 AM. Reason: xed with Legate |
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#7 | ||||||||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Yesterday
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![]() #128: I don't think I'm on the same wavelength with Nog, there are just some differences in the way we think (seems to happen always), but I think he looks quite good for the time being. If he was a wolf, I don't think he would've brought up Fea's behaviour (does the cursed know about her status, could Fea be the cobbler etc). Quote:
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![]() Okay Inzil's vote is based on my suspicions of Mira. While I have nothing against people agreeing with me (it makes me feel clever ), I don't think the vote looks too good. Or, it all depends on Mira's role. If she turns out to be a wolf then Inzil will be more or less cleared in my mind, but if not Inzil looks worse.He also considered Fea but didn't vote for her simply because he didn't think she was a wolf, and then attacked the Lottie-wagoners, saying the bandwagon was suspicious but two of its members (Lommy & Legate) were not and one (Green) got the benefit of doubt because of being busy. Why exactly was the Lottie-train suspicious then? Quote:
Hmm reading Glirdan's post (#142) and it seems my comment about the unlikeliness of pinning all the wolves on day 1 can be more or less ignored. Although I still think it's darn unlikely, and it's dangerous to be so convinced so early. I think Izzy looks good. I would love to see more substance from sally. Not too fond of her at the moment. Quote:
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I like Glirdan for now. I have to go now (going to see a play with a friend, yay!), will be back some time in the evening.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-10-2010 at 11:54 AM. Reason: xed with Legate & Lommy, edit 2: fixed a quote |
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#8 | |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Oooh not a ton for me to catch up on even though the Day's more than half over. *approves*
Yes dear, would you care to explain that one for me please? I also really disliked Zil's vote for me. If he could explain that too, I'd appreciate it. Quote:
![]() So enough about me. ![]() I tend to trust Lottie's shirriff reveal, since I see no reason not to. Her suspicion of Greenie makes me suspicious of her by default, but I'll have to go through and look a bit deeper at her posts. So based on that information, I'll probably vote for Agan, Zil, or Greenie unless they manage to clear themselves in my eyes. I'm also on the fence about Morsul and sally. Morsul's "vote of opportunity" seems mighty suspicious. Said analysis of Greenie's posts might take a while since it's finals week and I reeeeally need to not get another D in seminar. Just sayin'.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#9 | ||
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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My trust of Lottie is at about 99%, since I really think the legitimate remaining Shirriff would have come forward by now if she was lying.
At least that gives me someone whose words I can take as truth, and she is quite adept at spotting wolves. That said, you aren't the Seer, Lottie, so you may not be right about all your suspects. Quote:
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Of the others, Glirdan and Agan are the ones I would need to look at more closely before I would conclude furriness. I'll try to do that now.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Looks pretty much like newbie behaviour to me, but it doesn't make it any less irritating. I just hope you'll be more logical toDay when going about your suspicions. Quote:
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I have somewhere to be soon, so I must go. I'll be back later and will then finally take a closer look at yesterDay (and toDay), but I have to limit myself because I really can't spend the entire evening on WW and not do any schoolwork.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Of Glirdan
I had to eliminate a couple of smilies.
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However, I still would wonder why he thought Shasta was bad for voting Greenie, when Glirdan noted Greenie's vote for Lottie looked bandwaggonish. Quote:
Conclusions: I agree with a lot of the smaller points he's brought up, but his vote could have been better. And I know, the same could be said about me. ![]() I'm not convinced he's a wolf, but I'm by no means convinced of his innocence either. x/d with Brinn
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#12 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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YesterDay... all my troubles seemed so far away...
*ahem*
Okay, wagons - the Lottie-wagon - the "I'm so concerned Loslote will be lynched, look at this unreasoned crowd against her" wagon - the sudden Greenie-wagon - the victorious Fea-wagon There's something wrong with Lottie... I didn't look at this wagon through and through, but it seems to me rather simple. A crowd of people living in Finland had been suspecting Lottie (among others or then just mostly her) during the Day and partly agreed with each others points and then they had to go to sleep and vote, around the same time. Most of them (me, Greenie & Legate) chose to vottie (hahaha a typo but let's leave it means "vote Lottie", obv.), some (Aganzir) didn't. Conclusions? If you ask me, I don't think the wagon is necessarily evil. After all, I thought we had good points against Lottie even though they turned out to be wrong, and everybody had a bit of their own grounds so no one was following others blindly. But of course, the Lottie wagon doesn't make us innocent either. What can we conclude, then? At least this: please people, don't mislead yourselves by concluding I must be more innocent than Legate or Greenie because of the placement of my vote. I think we would all have voted Lottie, whatever the order of our votes, but I just happened to decide to go to sleep first.Eee! Lottie is an easy lynch and people are voting her for bad grounds! Oo, we're all gonna die! So what's wrong here? Lottie might be an easy Day1 lynch (I don't remember her fate in the games I've played with her so I can't verify this but I trust it if you say so), but the grounds for voting her weren't lousy - even though she's now proven innocent. It makes me slightly annoyed how some people seeked to discredit all suspicion against Lottie despite the fact she was possibly the person against whom there was presented the biggest amound of rational points thus far. Guilty of expressing concern over possible Lottie lynch: - Izzy (first) - Greenie (although she voted her herself, quite fishy) - Nogrod (see more below, did this twice btw) - Legate (dislikes the smoothness of the emerging Lottie wagon - a question: am I reading a totally different game than you others?! for what I've seen, there was the joke Fea vote which seemed like an obvious to be retracted vote, my and Greenie's votes, Sally's suspicion and Agan's suspicion and vote for someone else than Lottie... ..what? should we start suspecting Sally now? she's the only one whose approach could be called "smooth" or sneaky... anyway Mr L himself voted Lottie.) - Shasta - Sally ("I think Lottie's suspicious, but I get sick of Day One lynching her." That is perfectly fine, but later she starts a massive operastion Save Private Lottie, which seems rather fishy - like a wolf who tries to look good.) - Brinn (amidst general wishy-washy warning against bandwagons) Guilty of ignoring/discrediting the "proof" against Lottie: - Nogrod (well might be a bit misleading to place him here but I don't like him calling me and Greenie's votes as "rapid lynching queue" while we had been suspecting Lottie for some time already and just had to go to sleep around the same time, later he said there was too much opportunism involved. From whose part, would you clarify?) - Boro (called it hogwash for obvious reasons!) - Zil ("this push against Lottie looks bad" - oh dear, by that point more people had expressed concern over the possible lynch of Lottie than voted or spoken for voting for her , later flip-flops on which is more evil: Lottie herself or the wagon, ends up voting neither.)- Lottie (takes it as another Day1 wagon against her innocent self, but we can maybe forgive that... ha.) - Shasta ("reasoning on the bandwagon isn't superb" - admitted, but what better reasoning was there around at that time? when I went to sleep, it was in the end of page 2 and Day1 ended on page 6 so I missed quite a lot of discussion... and later Shasta calls voting Lottie bandwagoning on Fea's vote, which is at least from my part absolute nonsense because I was 100% sure Fea'd come back and retract) - Brinn (her selective memory remembers the early nonsense-points against Lottie, but not the later and more serious ones... how convenient, given that every time someone gets more than one vote it's a bandwagon and you have to cry "evil!") - Nienna (all her reaction to the points against Lottie: "suspicious bandwagon"... great.) - Sally and Izzy (Not otherwise, but they discredited Legate's vote. I wouldn't think this too bad for I too raised some eyebrows when I read his vote even though I knew he had had points against her earlier. Still, I'm inclined to think he's not evil.) - Glirdan (says the bandwagon is ridiculous and asks why get rid of Lottie since she's good at spotting wolves... really, most of us are good at that at our best, and should we lynch those who aren't just to ensure they'll never learn?) Okay, forgive my slightly personal approach here, but I really think the massive discrediting was slightly weird (and I didn't like it because I can admit I was wrong about Lottie but I don't want to admit I had ridiculous grounds for voting her 'cos I didn't), and can't be all honest (or then some of you guys are a flock of chickens). Looking at this has been helpful for me, though, because now I have some suspects: Greenie, Nog, Zil, Brinn, Shasta, Sally. I bet there are at least one or two wolves among those. PS. it's interesting Nogrod's very concerned about all the suspicion against Lottie still he is suspicious of her himself... Fea's vote is so weird she has to be bad. Skip gave the first vote early on. He grounded his suspicion well although I disagree with what he said. Nogrod followed, suspecting Fea is sending or receiving cobbler hints. I must say that when I first read his posts I thought he was making mountains out of molehills once again, but it was proven he was right in associating Fea with cobblers (even if he did it for the wrong reasons)! Brinn is the third, her grounds for voting are mostly the fact that she dislikes Fea's vote (more than suspects it). Boro votes to save Lottie. Lottie saves to vote herself. Conclusions? The fact that Fea got lynched was really random. I don't think we can make much out of this. Oi! Evil Greenie! Must die! Shasta starts, says "I don't like bandwagons, I don't like lynching Lottie first constantly, I don't see what's so suspicious about her, and I especially don't like votes made apologetically." People criticised this vote came out of nowhere, but I think it actually has better grounds than many later votes, although I personally disagree with some stuff he says. It's not a very suspicious vote, except maybe exactly because it looks so good and "fresh" and maybe wants to abuse the anti-anti-Lottie mood... Nienna votes her quite out of the blue, and so does Lottie, who later switches to save herself. Conclusions? Not much either, would like to hear Nienna's reasoning. edit: xed with everybody
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
Last edited by Thinlómien; 04-10-2010 at 04:05 AM. |
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#13 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Innocent
Lottie - I believe her claim. Quite innocent Izzy - as quite often of late, she seems to me the voice of reason and independent-thinking. Some points of hers late yesterDay made me slightly restless, but I think it was simply because we disagreed. Agan - speaks sense and is sharp, seems genuine. However, you never know of her and I don't like her picking a fight with Lottie the Known Innocent. Skip - he seems very careful, but I would interpret it as the carefulness of a new player rather than the carefulness of a wolf, at least for now. Can't tell Legate - I know I just said I think him innocent, but the posts I cross-posted with looked really fishy, sort of trying to look nice, playact he didn't vote for Lottie yesterDay (and give the most dangerous vote despite his judgement) and now try to be buddybuddy with her. Dislike. Anyway, I need more time to think. Greenie - I agree her apologetic/pessimistic way of voting was weird, but we must not forget she did suspect Lottie all along. Besides, I'm starting to feel defensive for her since she always gets this kind of suspicion in the beginning, but on the other hand, I'm a bit annoyed that she won't probably be much around toDay either. Grr. Hmm, discarding all mixed sisterly feelings, I can't really judge her yet, that's why she's here. Wintywinty - as long as he keeps to IC arguments, it's impossible to judge him. Shasta - I don't know what to make out of him. He seems to think from kind of a quirky point of view, but he isn't necessarily evil. Morsul - I tend to disagree with him on everything but I'm not sure what it makes him. Nienna - however much I disagree with him and however much I irrationally suspect her everytime, I must say her actions towards then end of Day1 looked quite innocent. In any case she's a hard nut(ter) to crack. ![]() Slightly suspicious Nogrod - I definitely don't like his actions towas Lottie and her wagon yesterDay, and his vote was weird (meaning uncharacteristic). However, I tend to disagree and get annoyed with him even when he's innocent, and it goes exactly this way, so I don't want to make quick judgements. ![]() Mira - I remember I suspected her yesterDay, but I have forgotten the reason. Should probably check. I know she had RL reasons to be away yesterDay but it doesn't make her any less quiet and creepy.Brinn - I don't like her careful and slightly hypocritical-seeming statements, but that's how I interpret and suspect her all the time. In any case, her protest-like vote for Fea and discrediting all the points against Lottie make her someone to watch for me. Suspicious Glirdan - weird comment against the Lottie wagon, had all the wagoned-for people on his suspicion list late yesterDay yet still made a throwaway vote and refused to take sides. Sally - her Operation Save Private Lottie looks bad, as does the throwaway vote and general wishy-washyness. Zil - he got slightly jumpy over Nogrod's accusations against him (although in his defense I have to say those crusades are painful to withstand). But what really makes me suspicious is how he demonized the threat against Lottie and flip-flopped on which side was more evil, Lottie or the wagon against her, and then ended up voting very weirdly. (Although, the vote was so weird it could even speak in his favour. Wouldn't he just have voted me or Legate if he was a wolf?) edit: xed with everybody again
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#14 | ||
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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On other matters: I'm with Lottie right now in saying that Sally is screaming wolf to me. I thought so too at the end of yesterDay but we decided we didn't have enough votes to get her lynched. She'll be getting my vote today unless something drastic happens. Morsul's vote for Sally already toDay looks very opportunistic. To me it feels like a wolf realizing that our known innocent is pretty much going to lead a crusade against a fellow wolf and wanting to seem more innocent by being the first to join. Quote:
I think Lommy has a point about timezones and I admit that in the beginning of the Day Lottie was looking a little suspicious but I wanted to give her some time to make herself not-suspicious (which she did) but I could understand why some people who had to go to bed early may have voted for her. This is not saying that there can't be an early-to-bed wolf on the bandwagon too just that I could understand some of the votes. In a bit I'll be leaving for a few hours but then I'll be back. Edit: x-ed with Skip -- and to answer his question the wolves don't ever know the role of the cobbler.
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Puddle! Puddle! |
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#15 |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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But does the cobbler know the identity of the wolves? I'm having problem figuring out the role Fea would try to play.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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I voted because I thought it'd be the only time I could. Second... well there is no second.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#17 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Okay, rechecked the votes and also noticed that Boro accompanied his vote with "sorry hun, duty is forcing me to make this choice". Which, basically, is a big note saying "there is something going on here" - although it looks like he said it just to apologize to Fea whom he even might have thought innocent. Anyway, adding two and two together... it's really clear to see now where the WWs were (I'd say almost 99%) coming from.
Otherwise... if I were to assume that there is at least one Wolf in each of the bandwagons, which might as well not be the case, given that Wolves might have been just throwing away votes all over the place and making the village do the bad work... on the other hand, in my experience, the innocents are usually far more straightforward with their votes, i.e. if they have a suspicion, they go for it no matter that nobody else follows them, unlike WWs - of course depending on the particular WW, but I just think it's somehow more likely that way. Anyway, what was I originally saying. If I had like a gun pointed at me right now and be told "say one name from each bandwaggon", from the Fea bandwaggon, I'd think of either Nogrod or Brinn, as skip who started it sounded reasonable and it was not a bandwaggon yet. Then maybe Brinn more than Nogrod, however I admit I'd have to reread Nog's posts one more time (and Brinn's maybe too, though I think I remember them better as there were less of them), as Nog generally speaks sense (well, Brinn does too, but...) but Brinn seems more "creepy". But in general, I consider both of them quite innocent and reasonable. There is however one important thing to take into account - would the Wolves dare to kill Boro toNight if there was one of them in the Fea bandwaggon? As that'd leave quite a few people, and if somebody took the idea that "now there is a Wolf in Fea's voters, I am sure of it!" there will be quite a large chance for the Wolf there being caught. Not that, on the other hand, there wasn't much of a difference - if Boro was alive and Lottie killed instead, he would probably reveal anyway and thus there will be again only 3 people left. Of course, it all comes down to how much the Wolves did think of at Night, which we can't determine. It could also have been perceived just as a "well, whatever" or "let's do it, we hope that people are not going to examine Fea's voters, thinking that she was a Cobbler so no Wolf voted her" (that would be a rather lame thinking, so I don't assume we have such simple Wolves). In other words, btw, it made me think that this must have been a really baaad Night for the WWs. "This Day went just wrong!" Quite a broken spirit, eh, dear furry stalking friends? But I think the middle way would make the most sense, that the WWs just did what they had to, and now hoped the Fea voters won't be looked at. Okay, now actually along this train of thought, I have arrived somehow to being more inclined to believe that there might have been a Wolf among Fea voters more probably. If so, then I'd really put my bets on Brinn, as if you look at what she said toDay early, she started assuming a Wolf in Lottie-saving bandwaggon, but she explicitely named Greenie-wagon to be looked at, which could mean downplaying Fea-voters (of whom she is one)... and the more if Greenie was another fellow Wolf of hers. However, note that this is a theory now made as my thoughts go, following the original premises. As for the other one, Lommy and Greenie are equally good choices for me to find a Wolf in the other bandwaggon if I were to look for it, maybe with having a few more reasons to think Lommy innocent for things she said yesterDay. But anyway, only speculating. Then there of course would be another, wait, two Wolves among the rest! For that matter, sally's vote's been mentioned yesterDay as somewhat out-of-place and I sort of agree, if nothing else, it was inconsistent with what sally said. It wouldn't be a problem otherwise, but I think Nog or who was it had a point in saying that if sally wanted to save Lottie (resp. create a contest-bandwaggon), she would vote for somebody who already had a vote, and not me who didn't have a vote at all. I don't know if there was much of a chance to lynch me at the point (it didn't seem to me so much), so not sure if I can believe sally's explanation. (And that said, what I said above about innocents sticking to their votes won't certainly apply in this case - as that was not the reason sally stated, she came up with the somewhat strange explanation that she wanted to save Lottie.) Anyway... I am keeping my eye on her now. Now otherwise, I'd need to look at people again... but I have at least somewhat settled the thoughts for myself. EDIT: x-ed since my last
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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