Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[the phantom]

If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).

That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst.

Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people.

So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day).

The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive.

If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf.

So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan.

[Folwren]

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

[Folwren]

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Foley

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

Originally Posted by Foley

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

The Seer doesn't have to live through the night if he's already dreamed 3 innocents.

As far as belief, you've just got to hope that the true Seer is more believable than the fake one. I mean, that's always the case in any village. It's just that I'm suggesting perhaps instead of drawing things out we go for a huge massive lynch and either win or lose.

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Fea

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.

I wouldn't know anything about that. My parents have never said "no" to me.

As a matter of fact, Downs Werewolf games are the only time I hear it.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.

I remember when I was a spoiled little girl. . .


Anyways I feel slightly better after looking at Steve's latest posts, so I am less inclined to vote for Steve this time around. (not ruling it completely out)

That would leave me with Zil as main option. Followed by people like Greenie, Shasta and Nerwen. The last three is based on gut feeling or whatever you call it, their posts does not always seem genuine. . . then of course there was the points made by Lommy. (Yes I put quite a bit of faith in her)

[the phantom]

Anyway, just to make my plan a bit more clear, if you should wish to adopt it, ignore everything else I've said and assume that your three proven innocents are- Lommy, Kath, and Rune.

Gotta run. I'm not certain if I'll be back before the deadline, so just in case- best of luck everyone.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yes, I did find Boro suspicious, and yes, I thought Izzy might be hiding an Elvish face under her regular, very innocent-looking orcish mask.

When I said "It would be a great (and very bold) move for the elves to play," I included phantom as a possible Elf with the two of you, and was trying to suggest that you might be disassociating yourselves from each other in a way that was so obvious that people wouldn't suspect it. And by saying that it would be "very bold" I also meant that it would be a very unlikely possibility.

As for "those against him are all good", I didn't ever say that. I actually said, "one of the problems is that it makes me feel like those against him are all good, even though I suspect some for other reasons", meaning that because I disagree with him, it's making me feel like those who disagree with him are good, even though my mind tells me they're not (because I find them suspicious). That's why it's "one of the problems".

All right. This rather makes sense. It's not as though you were one of my top suspects anyway.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

Of course. That goes back to what Nerwen was saying a while back: not believing in your plans=evil.

Originally Posted by the phantom

The slaying of Nog alone ought to be enough to make me a bad gamble, and combine that with the fact that I refused to save Lottie on Day 1 even though it was totally within my power... I'm sorry, but at this stage it's downright suspicious for Inzil to float my name as a possibility. As if he's hoping beyond hope someone will bite or something.

I don't see why that clears you. But really, phantom you're bloody touchy. If you'd know, I'd rather Rune than you at this point. I didn't like how he immediately jumped on the idea of Kath as a rep just after you said you'd like to see it. It looked odd enough to me that you two are the ones I suspect most.

x/d with tp

[Folwren]

I will actually not go over Day 1 or the first half of Day 2, because I can sumarize it pretty well. Mostly what she did on Day 1 was bicker with Phantom and point accusingly at Sally, saying she looked much more wolfish than Lottie. She spoke very little about Lottie and she spent both her votes on Sally.

Day 2, she really ripped into Sally. Some of her posts were what I saw when I was trying to decide what to do that night. At the time, I trusted Greenie. As I said, it was only until today that I started distrusting her.

Originally Posted by Sally in post 453

Barring Seer reveals, this game is all about speculation, isn't it? I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it. Does that make sense?

She was talking to Nerwen. This was day 2. She seems to be saying that although it is unlikely that Sally and Lottie were elves together, Nerwen's explenation made sense, so she agreed. I actually don't know where or when Nerwen talked about both Sally and Lottie being elves together....I just figured that myself. I thought it'd be really sneaky and if Sally had turned out to be an elf, I would've probably lobbied to kill Phantom, but that's another matter...

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable. I, for one, certainly can't complain as I was the one who actually killed her.

Throughout day 2, she seems to think that Wilwa is innocent. Good, good... at least she's consistant in disliking sally and only sally.

She likes Nerwen Day1 and Day2. But Day3, she changes her tune. I don't like her reasoning against Nerwen at all. I've looked at the same posts, and I think Nerwen looks reasonably innocent. In fact, I think Nerwen is quite trustable...but that's just my own opinion.

Originally Posted by Greenie towards end of day3

Well. Of Celuien and Rune, I'd certainly prefer Cel as I think I have a read on Rune and I think he's innocent. Of Wilwa, Zil and Sally, then - I find Wilwa very innocent and wouldn't have you vote her, I'm not convinced either way about Zil, and as I said I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Sally lynched.

I think if Greenie is guilty, Rune may be, too.

Originally Posted by Greenie, earlier toDay

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

The logic that she is referring to is in Nerwen's post;

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

Because of Greenie's reaction, Nerwen posted that she thought Greenie over-reacted, and Greenie responded, deflecting...but I wonder...?

Here's what she said in response to Nerwen's, 'Why did you react like that?'

Originally Posted by Greenie

I know! The difference is that you seemed to consider it as a possibility, whereas I don't - even if I was a SoE it would be so ridiculously paranoid that I don't think it would be an option.

In post 572, she lists who she thinks is innocent and guilty....nothing out of it now, except she puts in her innocent list some people I have in mine...

She proceeds to vote Inzil in as Rep, although she uncertain about him...

And time is running so short that I'll post this even though it's not finished and maybe finish it in another post.

[Nerwen]

Having internet trouble at again, so sorry about not being around.

But I've read through things and I will say this quickly– I am now quite concerned about Greenie, and no, it's not just retaliation.

She analysed me and said there were some things she found suspicious, and that she might consider lynching me if I didn't provide proper answers to her questions. Fine, though I think the points were pretty minor.

Then, she keeps talking about me, and with each repetition I become more and more THE suspect, leading up to her voting me. (Recall that there's no further input from me in between any of these posts.) It looks manufactured.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Folwren]

K, this does NOT make sense:

Originally Posted by Greenie

It (being Sally being the seer) did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.

If Sally were smart enough as a seer NOT to do what she did, why would she not be smart enough as an elf not to do what she did? If Greenie thought she was smart enough not do that as a seer, why would Greenie think she was an elf when that move was almost equally as stupid?

Okay...so after looking at all of Greenie's posts, my main problem really lies with that she doesn't seem to have good reasons to suspect people. I think she weaves thick webs for the people she chooses to kill. Her web caught me and I killed Sally. I strongly think that Nerwen is innocent, and I think that Greenie's post against her is flimsy, but if I weren't so convinced of Nerwen's innocence, I can see being swayed by it.

If she's an elf, she's playing it really well. But I don't trust her.

And I know that all that review and analysis was really bad, but it's the best I can do with the time I've got plus with my inexperience at this.

-- Foley

x-posted since my last post.

[Inziladun]

Rune, the "I'd never do that as a wolf" defense probably wasn't the best thing you could have said to convince me.

And what's this about Nerwen and Greenie now?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I really don't like the way phantom seems to want to hide behind his own (admittedly strong) personality as an excuse for his actions. I don't know that he's evil, but his reactions to being suspected make me even more wary of him.

He's annoying, but there's currently too much evidence pointing away from him. Wouldn't be a good vote option.

Originally Posted by Zil

Shasta is rather enigmatic. He makes me nervous for some reason, but I did like the fact that he challenged phantom.

Shasta did a lot to get Lottie killed on Day One. I don't think he's an Elf.

Originally Posted by Folwren

If Sally were smart enough as a seer NOT to do what she did, why would she not be smart enough as an elf not to do what she did? If Greenie thought she was smart enough not do that as a seer, why would Greenie think she was an elf when that move was almost equally as stupid?

Well, the dynamics aren't the same, though. If there's four wolves they can afford to be "silly"– the Seer can't.

However–

Originally Posted by Foley

Okay...so after looking at all of Greenie's posts, my main problem really lies with that she doesn't seem to have good reasons to suspect people. I think she weaves thick webs for the people she chooses to kill. Her web caught me and I killed Sally. I strongly think that Nerwen is innocent, and I think that Greenie's post against her is flimsy, but if I weren't so convinced of Nerwen's innocence, I can see being swayed by it.

See my last post on her.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).

That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst.

Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people.

So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day).

The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive.

If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf.

So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, just to make my plan a bit more clear, if you should wish to adopt it, ignore everything else I've said and assume that your three proven innocents are- Lommy, Kath, and Rune.

Gotta run. I'm not certain if I'll be back before the deadline, so just in case- best of luck everyone.

So are we ignoring these posts and their content?
What is being implied seems pretty important to me or have I completely misunderstood them?

[Inziladun]

Bleh. Had to run downstairs and kill a spider found by the little one.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

He's annoying, but there's currently too much evidence pointing away from him. Wouldn't be a good vote option.

And annoyance isn't enough?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Shasta did a lot to get Lottie killed on Day One. I don't think he's an Elf.

I wouldn't vote for him right now, anyway.

x/d with Rune