WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Right on spot Pitch. I paused at that while reading but got carried away by the cobbler-speculation... (but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully). The wolves would love "friendliness-based lottery" of votes, while we innocents need to find out who the honey-tongued villains are.

Although I'm not too sure that quote merits as a reason to suspect Legate as you could read it as an IC comment as well.

It was partially in-character, but it was also stating the truth, although it was rather random: just if I put it in other words, the list of players does not look encouraging - in these numbers, whichever way the Wolf-team is built, there definitely is somebody really nasty, and I think we only miss the Saucepan Man and Roa for the fray.

As I said earlier, let's go for any signs of wolvery for now, toDay, toMorrow... if we get a good hunch on a cobbler and if we are totally baffled with the wolves, let's then try to lynch the cobbler (it might be a wolf trying to act like a cobbler as well, not an unheard of scenario either).

I am definitely for going for Wolves in general. And I think nobody ever said anything about going after a Cobbler. Cobbler should be ignored, ignored, ignored (as one Red Elf once used to say), but the point was to make sure the Gifteds don't do, hum hom, anything hasty.

EDIT: crossposted with Shasta and Pitch
EDITEDIT: And since I just looked at the clock and became horrified by the vision of the length of my sleep, I shall leave ye too... see you later...

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, as was her habit in idle moments, reached automatically for her knife so that she might do some carving, before remembering that their weapons had been taken from them, and that here there was no wood for her to whittle into the shape of soaring eagles or running stags. Without anything to occupy them, her hands felt strangely empty.

Master Nogrod had chided her many times for her inability to keep still– a serious defect in a Hunter. Now, unable to contain her restlessness, she rose and paced up and down the dank stone cell, thanking any Power that might still be looking out for the hapless Noldor that the cruel Sorcerer had, so far, neglected to chain them to the wall. That was something.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

You seem to assume that this "Cobbler" person– how terrible to think there's treachery among us! Though, perhaps, hardly surprising. *sigh* It seems the Doom of Mandos will dog our people to the end of days... –Where was I? Oh yes. You seem to assume that the traitor, not to mention those of us whose souls have been taken by the accursed Lord of Wolves, would reveal only as the Seer. Why should that be?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am definitely for going for Wolves in general. And I think nobody ever said anything about going after a Cobbler. Cobbler should be ignored, ignored, ignored (as one Red Elf once used to say), but the point was to make sure the Gifteds don't do, hum hom, anything hasty.

Nay, for this traitor may yet be a great help to the wolves in the end.

EDIT: typo.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Nay, for this traitor may yet be a great help to the wolves in the end.

Indeed, yes, Nerwen. The traitor ought not be our greatest concern, but ignored? That would be unwise.

[Loslote]

I do believe I shall display the traditional youth's habit of sleeping in for remarkable lengths of time...and hopefully (*crosses fingers*) the traditional youth's habit of being awake late into the evening.

As for the Cobbler, I'd say ignore xem for now. If they want to false reveal, let them have fun, and then let them go "oh. Right. I'm dead now". Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.

Besides, how else are we going to make sure Boro's a wolf than letting him kill off the Cobbler during the Night?

[wilwarin538]

A Cobbler that doesn't know who the wolves are and can be detected by the Seer is really not that huge of a threat, until the end of the game when their vote can do harm. So I'm not overly concerned about them at the moment. Hopefully the wolves get him, I always love it when that happens.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It depends on what is the definition of a "succesful false reveal". The cobblers - or wolves - doing a false reveal tend to die rather quick, but sometimes they have carried the game by that one or two Day delay they manage to create... So it is a real possibility, and a real threat.

A false reveal could potentially even end up helping us. I remember my only game as a cobbler I false revealed as the ranger and ended up accidently giving away who a wolf was and helping the village win. But I suppose that's a rare occurence...

And about reveals in general. I think the only time a Seer should reveal are the following: a) they have a wolf, b) they are in danger of being lynched and have info and have not left any useful hints, or c) close to the end of the game, where even known innocents could come in handy. A time that the Seer should not reveal: a) when someone false reveals, since it'll be obvious they're lying eventually, so please don't give yourself away or b) just for the fun of it.

I'm ok with a Ranger reveal if they are in danger of being lynched, and pretty much only then. I'm never ok with a Hunter reveal, since that defeats the whole purpose of the role, being that death is when they do their special thing, and since an innocent can't die with them when they are lynched (right?) then risk of lynch is not a valid reason to reveal. That's just my opinion.

Anyway, off to bed. I should be on randomly in the morning. I have a dentist appointment that ends very close to DL, so I may vote early just to be on the safe side.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

and since an innocent can't die with them when they are lynched (right?) then risk of lynch is not a valid reason to reveal.

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Her point still stands, though - the Hunter should not reveal. Well, except for that one time with Mira, but that was special (and annoying! ).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate - in no instance should the cobbler be 'ignored' (except of course in the case of a revealed cobbler, in which case we should 'ignore' everything they say should we not choose to lynch them immediately).

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

Oh, you're right, I got it backwards, anyone can die with them in a lynch, but only a wolf during the night. Still though, a revealed hunter is less likely to be night killed, and then what good are they? Just saying, strongly opposed.

Anyway, be back when I am more fully awake.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, if a fake-Gifted proved to be a nuisance, there would have been the need for radical turn, but fortunately indeed, the Seer can always dream of him/her.

As for the Cobbler, I'd say ignore xem for now. If they want to false reveal, let them have fun, and then let them go "oh. Right. I'm dead now". Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

A Cobbler that doesn't know who the wolves are and can be detected by the Seer is really not that huge of a threat, until the end of the game when their vote can do harm.

Nerwen replied with her usual impatience:

"Look, my friends. you're thinking about this all wrong. Yes, even Master Nogrod– with all due respect.

'Question: what will the Seer do if she dreams the traitor early on?
Answer: Nothing.

'At least, she might encourage the rest of us to attack him– or not, depending on whether we seem likely to get an actual wolf at the time– but she certainly won't reveal just to get him; neither can he lead her to any wolves. Thus, false-revealing by the traitor is more of a risk than the rest of you seem to think."

EDIT:X'd with Lottie and Glirdan.

[Glirdan]

I think miss Lottie is a wolfykins for making a day 1 list

EDIT: Spelling