WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[wilwarin538]

A Cobbler that doesn't know who the wolves are and can be detected by the Seer is really not that huge of a threat, until the end of the game when their vote can do harm. So I'm not overly concerned about them at the moment. Hopefully the wolves get him, I always love it when that happens.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It depends on what is the definition of a "succesful false reveal". The cobblers - or wolves - doing a false reveal tend to die rather quick, but sometimes they have carried the game by that one or two Day delay they manage to create... So it is a real possibility, and a real threat.

A false reveal could potentially even end up helping us. I remember my only game as a cobbler I false revealed as the ranger and ended up accidently giving away who a wolf was and helping the village win. But I suppose that's a rare occurence...

And about reveals in general. I think the only time a Seer should reveal are the following: a) they have a wolf, b) they are in danger of being lynched and have info and have not left any useful hints, or c) close to the end of the game, where even known innocents could come in handy. A time that the Seer should not reveal: a) when someone false reveals, since it'll be obvious they're lying eventually, so please don't give yourself away or b) just for the fun of it.

I'm ok with a Ranger reveal if they are in danger of being lynched, and pretty much only then. I'm never ok with a Hunter reveal, since that defeats the whole purpose of the role, being that death is when they do their special thing, and since an innocent can't die with them when they are lynched (right?) then risk of lynch is not a valid reason to reveal. That's just my opinion.

Anyway, off to bed. I should be on randomly in the morning. I have a dentist appointment that ends very close to DL, so I may vote early just to be on the safe side.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

and since an innocent can't die with them when they are lynched (right?) then risk of lynch is not a valid reason to reveal.

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Her point still stands, though - the Hunter should not reveal. Well, except for that one time with Mira, but that was special (and annoying! ).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Her point still stands, though - the Hunter should not reveal. Well, except for that one time with Mira, but that was special (and annoying! ).

Noted, I was just clarifying.

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.

Fair enough. But should we have suspicion, I believe that it would be in the best interest for all of us to be rid of them. Of course, finding the Wolves is our main priority, but should we happen upon the Cobbler, even if it is early in the game, I think we should be rid of the nuisance. I've seen first hand (and in person ) how dangerous a false reveal late in the game can be.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate - in no instance should the cobbler be 'ignored' (except of course in the case of a revealed cobbler, in which case we should 'ignore' everything they say should we not choose to lynch them immediately).

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

Oh, you're right, I got it backwards, anyone can die with them in a lynch, but only a wolf during the night. Still though, a revealed hunter is less likely to be night killed, and then what good are they? Just saying, strongly opposed.

Anyway, be back when I am more fully awake.

[Boromir88]

Wow, Lottie, I do fail at even scanning for my name!.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Besides, how else are we going to make sure Boro's a wolf than letting him kill off the Cobbler during the Night?

I would die if that happened again, but I'm afraid fortunately for the Cobbler this time, I am no wolf.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Just to make you read this post. And you hypocrite, don't pretend to make short posts just now, just wait when you get into some argument...

Haha fairy 'nuff.

I find it ironic of all the protesting to just ignore the cobbler and focus on the wolves...the vast majority of the talk has been about ignoring the cobbler. So in a completely backwards way to avoid focusing on the Cobbler, everyone's doing it. Oh the irony.

I side with Nerwen and Shasta on this, if we see someone acting cobblerish lynch them. What kind of logic is, "wait until the end of the game when the cobbler could be the most dangerous until we do something about it?" Strike while the iron is hot, get him gone when we get the chance and where there is little damage! It is a nice perk to have the seer being able to ID the cobbler in dreams, but come now to suggest that the seer would do something as rash as jumping at any fake reveal to oust the cobbler while their are still 3 wolves abroad is kind pointless.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully).

I don't like those huge generalizations, because I think it's more depended on the player than the role. I mean I act brutal and attacking all the time because I know that's what keeps me around, regardless of role. Although too much brutishness also means some people are more likely support a bandwagon on me, then oppose, regardless of what they think my role is

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As I said earlier, let's go for any signs of wolvery for now, toDay, toMorrow... if we get a good hunch on a cobbler and if we are totally baffled with the wolves, let's then try to lynch the cobbler (it might be a wolf trying to act like a cobbler as well, not an unheard of scenario either).

This isn't like using an oven, minute 20 flip the chicken over, roast again. Minute 38 remove and prod with a meat thermometer...drat it's not 180 degrees, stick back. Minute 47 done. Let rest, minute 55 bon appetit.

No no no, we stay the course. If we miss out on wolves the first few days, we don't switch it up to the cobbler. Why is there an assumption that we can't try to figure out the wolves and cobbler...ya know at the same time? If people are pressed for time (like usual) and don't have the time to do so then let's split up the work load.

We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible. I'll check for possible cobblery anyone want to volunteer to examine me...ehem I mean my work?

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

Edit: crossed with Nog

[Ozban]

Greenie, great job summarizing what everyone knows already. We know nothing, whatever the reason their (meant Lottie and Shasta of course) exchange had, we can't know. Unless they care to explain. I keep wondering what led you to writing such a list...

And yes, traitor/cobbler can be anybody, possibly one of those Cobb-hunt theoretists. Again, we know not.

For my part: that Lottie-shasta conversation was most likely just a random recon. Wouldn't make too much fuzz around it.

Pitch:

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

I hope you are not gonna change the history records. Would be troublesome you know, not that suprising though.

Legate: I'm so glad we (more like Nerwen) convinced you about importance of cobbler, I'm so glad you won't be "ignoring" him.

Even considering what Nerwen said, I believe the Cobbler is not a threat. It can be so on some late Day, when there are few people left and he/she can vote with the Wolves to get rid of the villagers... Although okay, we are quite a small village here... hmm, I would have to count. Okay, I submit, maybe you are right and particularly in this village we should not ignore them for too long, but still, in the first Days it should not be our concern. And anyway, even in the later ones - I mean, we should look for WWs, not for Cobbler - once there are no WWs, the Cobbler has lost as well.

You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Let's find WWs. That should be our priority. One point I'll agree on with Legate.

Later...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Note - I'm fairly sure I'm going to have to vote in about three hours, and I won't be here for much of that time.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

Hear hear!

Well, not much new has been said. It seems agreed upon that we lynch the Cobbler if it is clear who they are, but WWs are the priority (now that I think about it the fact that this has even been discussed by most of us seems rather silly). And that Gifteds should shush (unless Seer has good info) and anyone revealing for a dumb reason will be swiftly lynched (especially if false revealing as the Hunter) since it's likely a false one.

Now that that's settled. Who do I find suspicious?

No one I'm afraid, which saddens me since I won't be around for a while. I'm going to try my hardest to get back in time for DL. I would vote now just to be on the safe side, but I have no idea who to vote for, so I'm going to wait and hope I get back in time to read up and make a good vote.

x'ed with a few, don't have time to read, so I'll catch up later

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boro

Actually, my remark about the danger of a counter-reveal delayed too long was inspired by legends of a wolf-hunt before my time, where I think a wolf revealed as the Ranger, and the true Ranger didn't contest the claim until he was threatened with being lynched... and wasn't believed and was lynched.

I recall a tragedy like that which occurred well within the time we've both been wolf-hunting. It involved a brave but ill-advised Ranger by the name of Rune and a vicious, ravening she-wolf named Lhuna. I believe your distant kinsman Kent was a witness.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal

Thanks for the advice, I've got no intention and no reason to (although it could be fun to try one day when I'm a wolf or cobbler). So I guess I'll just have to live with being Mr Agreeable...

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

[Boromir88]

One thing I told myself I wanted to comment on but forgot that I told myself to comment on...

Originally Posted by Pitch

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

It's more about timing than anything. And of course once you've masterfully pulled off a great fake-reveal you've got this horrible reputation of being completely untrustworthy that follows you around for a while. It's quite a burden, because it's like everyone expects you at some point to just do some crazy fake reveal again and give pay back to deceiving them previously. But it's truly just about timing and doing the exact thing which no one expects.

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Interesting points here. Individually, Lottie and Shasta seem to me to be their usual selves, but the interplay between them could be said to have had a bit of a companionlike feel. And Shasta's quick suspicion of Pitch does stand out as well.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang, gibbets and crows, dotard, oh no, too bad, I guess we don't have any gibbets here in this dungeon and I think this wasn't my line anyway...

You seemingly brought that up about the Cobbler to get discussion going, and that's appreciated. I didn't agree with your idea that they should be totally ignored. Now you've got the right stance. Suspicious behavor in general ought to be scrutinized, regardless of whether it looks more lupine or Cobblerish. It certainly has been heard of for wolves to emulate a Cobbler in the hopes they'll be dismissed as a threat.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A quick comment on the Day so far before dashing off again. First - I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler. Like, the cobbler is distracting the village already, and it's actually possible they haven't been around yet at all! Though of course it's pretty boring and unfruitful to start the Day with everyone echoing "We need to kill the wolves!" But still, I wouldn't be surprised if our cobbler was in fact one of those keeping up the debate about how to deal with the cobbler.

Another thing: the exchange between Lottie and Shasta. Possible scenarios:
a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.

Quite reasonable, this.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I find it ironic of all the protesting to just ignore the cobbler and focus on the wolves...the vast majority of the talk has been about ignoring the cobbler. So in a completely backwards way to avoid focusing on the Cobbler, everyone's doing it. Oh the irony.

Didn't Greenie say that already?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible.

Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.

x/d with Pitch and Wilwa

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, if a fake-Gifted proved to be a nuisance, there would have been the need for radical turn, but fortunately indeed, the Seer can always dream of him/her.

As for the Cobbler, I'd say ignore xem for now. If they want to false reveal, let them have fun, and then let them go "oh. Right. I'm dead now". Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

A Cobbler that doesn't know who the wolves are and can be detected by the Seer is really not that huge of a threat, until the end of the game when their vote can do harm.

Nerwen replied with her usual impatience:

"Look, my friends. you're thinking about this all wrong. Yes, even Master Nogrod– with all due respect.

'Question: what will the Seer do if she dreams the traitor early on?
Answer: Nothing.

'At least, she might encourage the rest of us to attack him– or not, depending on whether we seem likely to get an actual wolf at the time– but she certainly won't reveal just to get him; neither can he lead her to any wolves. Thus, false-revealing by the traitor is more of a risk than the rest of you seem to think."

EDIT:X'd with Lottie and Glirdan.

[Glirdan]

I think miss Lottie is a wolfykins for making a day 1 list

EDIT: Spelling

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I think miss Lottie is a wolfykins for making a day 1 list

Aww, nuts, caught me again!

Really, though, not liking Shasta. Too non-confrontational, and the way he words this especially:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

Makes me a bit worried.

Of course, when he's a wolf, I can never tell, so he's probably innocent anyway. Best I've got so far as far as suspicion goes, though.

[Glirdan]

Well, I'm off for now. I may sneak on in the next few hours if I don't fall asleep. If I do fall asleep, I'll be on a few hours before DL.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

Like I said, it's early in Day 1, and I'm probably wrong anyway. Total gut feeling, and I was trying to describe why...I'm hardly saying you're without question evil, just that you're my top (and only, really) suspect. As for your response, it sounds like the Wolf!Shastas I've seen before - really aggressive. As for the suspicion, you included a with it, so I didn't really pay much attention to that.

Repeat: Not solid proof that you're evil. Not even close. Complete gut feeling - but I don't trust you.