WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Great thing, at least this! I must say the yesterDay's complete failure was not very much boosting the hope, but a Night-save is good. I think this had hindered the Wolves quite a lot. Either they have to go for the same person next Night, or just go for somebody else, risking that the same thing might happen again. Ha! I can only think of one downside for the lack of Night-kill: we cannot make any conclusions from it. But I think this is certainly better than a Night-kill: we have basically one Day more.

So about yesterDay... I am still disappointed that by the time the real conversation started, I wasn't able to be around very much, and unfortunately, it will be similar toDay (I will have to vote early - see the admin thread), though I hope that the discussion at least has already started yesterDay so now it will already be in flow while I am here...

The worst thing about the Seer-lynch yesterDay is that it was totally random (obviously, as half of village voted for him), so basically we don't even have any clear lead from the lynch. I think I should look at the voting tally, or somebody should make it (I think Glirdy made one yesterDay). If there are people I am suspicious about, they are especially among the "throwaway voters". Of course, once there was basically unisono lynch, there wasn't much of a thing to do even for an innocent who disagreed: you could either join the mob or just cast your vote elsewhere. From the top of my head, I must say that wilwa seemed okay to me from those people who voted randomly - she sounded genuinely frustrated, while Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one". Boro could be either way. Eönwë, who appeared like few minutes before DL and started contemplating on whom to vote, might have been genuine - seems he had a lot to catch up with.

I think there definitely was at least one Wolf among the Shasta-voters, trying to hide in the crowd (unless it was even Lottie who started it, for example). I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay, skip at least was the kind of a person who seemed to echo a lot of thoughts others said without adding much of his own. There was something that unnerved me about Glirdy, but I have to re-read his posts again, especially what he had said about the Lottie-Shasta thing.

And I am also not quite comfortable with Nogrod's vote - in fact, like I said yesterDay, I am not entirely comfortable with him in general - he seems to me a bit more calculative than he usually is as an innocent. Like, when he said "I suspect Shasta, and although I don't like bandwaggons, I will vote him" - that sounded a bit fake. I would have expected the innocent Nogrod to be sort of more, hmm, self-reflective, like, to ask himself: "Oh really? Is it right that I suspect him if all the village wants to lynch him?" And not to just shrug it like this. I would like to take a look at when he first started to suspect Shasta...

Okay, so now on to do it And on to see if people post...

EDIT: x-ed with people. But if people post something, I meant...

[Boromir88]

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

[Pitchwife]

Yep, go Ranger! And ouch for the lynch.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

Unless I'm overlooking something, he didn't talk about or suspect anybody very much except for myself (for reasons which baffle me more than ever now that his role is known), Lottie (defending himself against her) and Greenie (for saying Lottie sounded genuine). Apart from that, he was okay with Nerwen, disagreed with Legate about the cobbler and replied to you about past fake-reveals (the latter more banter than anything else). Nothing that sticks out as a Seer hint to me, so it seems most likely to me he'd dreamed an innocent (possibly Nerwen?) - unless you think he'd dreamed a Pitchwolf and masked the dream behind that bogus case he made against me; which I know he didn't, but obviously I can't prove it.

Speaking of hints, I've got a question for skip:

Originally Posted by skip #64

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point...

Care to disclose them now, and explain what this was about? For if it wasn't a fake Seer hint (and implying you might have dreamed a Shastawolf) I don't know what it was.

[Ozban]

Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

As for the ranger, Te Saluto!

And cause everything is said,
Oz retires to his bed.

Good night, fellow corpses.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

You can try, if you wish. I didn't spot anything this far, at least on first sight; though I am basically rereading the thread now so there is lot of time still...

Originally Posted by Ozban

Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

Fair enough. Of course if people vote like that, it is okay. But Wolves do that too, or a certain kind of them, if they want to seem "noble". I have no problem imagining you as one of that sort - also given that you have never suspected Shasta and Lottie in the first place, not by the slightest bit. It has two edges - you can be either just really having your own mind and seeing things correctly from the very beginning, in that case, fine. But it can also be that you knew they were innocent - because you are not innocent yourself. I don't have any 100% suspicion about you or anything like that, but of the non-Shasta votes, yours is one that looks the most suspicious to me. So I will be watching you carefully.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

You can try, if you wish. I didn't spot anything this far, at least on first sight; though I am basically rereading the thread now so there is lot of time still...

Well my only reaction so far was it doesn't look good for Pitch.

Post 10.

It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.

"I believe I'm ok" and "for now" doesn't sound like a seer-dream on Legate. Just an innocent stating a general innocent-vibe about someone.

However same post...

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

Now that's odd, he's quick to point out Pitch's only post and then be "slightly off" about him for being...well Pitch.

His next few posts one is a joke to me about a prior game and then clarifying the hunter role with Wilwa. And entirely agreeing with Nerwen (disagreeing with Legate) about the cobbler business. Nothing seems seer hinty to me.

Post 31.

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

The response is to Lottie, but he also points out that he was the first to point any actual suspicion towards anyone and remarks again that the person was Pitch. So I hardly think his Post 10 when he says Pitch was "slightly off" was a bantering, joke suspicion.

Post 33.

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

Least ok with Pitch, most ok with Nerwen. The thing about this post is he provides a reason for being most ok with Nerwen, and continues to repeat suspicion on Pitch for no stated reason.

Post 46.

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

This would seem to point the possible dream to Lottie and not to Greenie. Greenie's kind of the middle person who got her head stuck into a curfluffle, because Shasta's reasons for not liking Greenie were for what Greenie said about Lottie.

Although the Lottie dream doesn't seem all that probable because Shasta seemed more annoyed that she was suspecting him. Doesn't look much like a dream for Lottie.

Post 58. He quotes a long post from Pitch only to say...

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

Here again it doesn't seemed like his dream was of Lottie, because he specifically says he doesn't want this to turn into "Shasta vs. Lottie." The "I will if I have to" was probably more that he would of course want to save himself if it came to that.

Post 60.

++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Make of it what you will, but he seemed stuck on suspicions for Pitch for the entire day. Where Greenie and Lottie he seemed more annoyed with and not particularly suspicious of. And none of the people he said he "liked" didn't seem like very confident "likes" at the time.

Edit: crossed with Pitch. But dinner time for me shall be back late late tonight.

[Nogrod]

It seems we're getting into this old discussion I haven't seen in a long time. So what is the right thing to do when the vote is more or less clear? Do you go with whom you suspect the most plain and simple whatever the result is going to be ("not being a hypocrite" even if it means that someone whom you think is more innocent than others facing the gallows in real terms will die - but you keep your own posture of integrity) or do you choose from those who are near the chopping block and pick the one you're most suspicious of - even if it isn't your number one suspect - or try to drive the lynch to save the one you think the most innocent of the probable lynchees?

Or, which is even better a question: who would like to pose as someone who is right and self-assuredly denying to take part in the lynching of an innocent? Well, only those who know the one that is going to be lynched in fact is an innocent! I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry). Ozban I'm not so sure about: an idealistic newbie or a calculating wolf? I'd lean towards the former at the moment.

And btw. Legate: I'm quite ready to admit that I did suspect Shasta and voting him with what information I had then was the most reasonable thing to do, wagon or not. I said that I don't like bandwagons, but if the wagoned one is one of the few I'd feel even little confidence in voting for, then I'll vote thus.

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

Okay, needs to take a short break... too much coming fore puzzling my mind.

EDIT: x'd with many

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have spent now quite some time with re-reading the thread, here are my conclusions about people based on yesterDay. Then I will see the posts of those who posted meanwhile (since my last post) and then go to sleep. So:

Greenie - she is somewhat, hmm, chaotic, there is very little actually from her, but it seems more like her innocent self. Also when I look at her several times remembered list of four options from yesterDay, I don't think she would post something so self-evident if she was a Wolf, it really looks like a sort of personal thought-process; a real one.

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.

Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...

Nogrod - like I said, somewhat uncomfortable with him. It is also interesting that in the beginning (post 42), he wanted to be careful about making conclusions about Shasta and Lottie, but later he basically straightaway switched into suspecting Shasta (while leaving Lottie be, saying she gets innocently lynched usually, which is true, though).

Pitchwife - I am wondering about him. I do not find him any particularly innocent, but neither particularly suspicious... one thing seems clear to me: he and Boro are not the Wolves together. Unless there is some Cobbler-signal between them in this, the matter is just very untransparent to me still. Anyway, he seems reasonable in some way... his analysis of Lottie and Shasta close to the end of yesterDay seems genuine. Certainly not my first-hand pick now or anything like that.

Skip - like I said, somewhat "riding the tidal wave". His first post repeats mostly things already said - that won't be bad by itself, but he is hardly constructive (although it's possible he doesn't have time or strength for it, but still); later he is sort of submarinish and his vote for Shasta in a kind of "who cares" manner. Lost in the crowd. Might be he just had a lot to do, but...

Glirdy - okay, here is another of our rather suspicious people. Firstly, he is agreeable ("thanks to Legate for starting the conversation and to Pitch for questioning him") and at the same time (as already hinted in the previously mentioned quote) lays down some basis for suspicion, possibly in case if later it came handy. And he does the same for Pitch too. And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie. Really, honestly?
If there is somebody really suspicious now to me, it is him.

Inzil is another peculiar person. Very, sort of, unreadable. Hard to say anything concrete about him. Mostly he says "okay, thanks, nice" to people who clarify something which they said before to him - it happened two or three times. Sort of, well, it just catches one's attention that he is doing mostly that, of all things. Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

Of Boro I can't say much. He remains a questionmark for me, which is slightly unnerving, but well - hope to see more from him in the future, this far he is in no-idea cathegory.

Similar with wilwa, with the fact that generally her actions seem innocentish to me.

Of Ozban I spoke above basically in my previous post... I think he has generally sort of good style, it just remains to be seen whether he is hiding fur behind some mask or not.

And Eönwë... his only and rather late appearence didn't say much, he could have been genuinely clueless innocent or just a Wolf who was also genuinely clueless as well, since he hasn't been around all day. So hope to see more from him still.

Now on to all those I x-ed with...

[Pitchwife]

I've been a bit under the weather all day, so I'm going to bed now and find out whether I'm going to come down with the flu or not. See you tomorrow (hopefully with a clearer head).

[Inziladun]

Firstly, hats off to the Ranger and sharp intuition.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

I haven't found anything, beyond what's already been stated: Strong suspicion and a vote for Pitch, some mild suspicion toward Greenie, and apparent trust of Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

I thought it rather evident why they were unlikely to be packmates: Lottie's vote for Shasta seemed too unnecessarily reckless to have been wolf-on-wolf.

Also, I was very curious what skip would say to explain his comment about possibly voting for Shasta and not wanting to give the reasons. That, though I didn't want to say so at the time, was another point in favor of my voting for Shasta. I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier. And skip's explanation for that comment was that he had wondered if Lottie wasn't the Seer. A disaster all way round.

x/d with Nog

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"

The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him, especially e.g. Pitch's questioning of his points was justified, I think (regardless of Shasta's innocence, the points he raised had objectively poor grounds), but I am more like wondering - and I said that if you have read correctly - that I thought Lottie far more suspicious, and wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

I must say now, that from the recent posts I feel a bit better about skip and Nog - the former gives a sort of believable explanation of his thoughts (an explanation less likely for a Wolf to make up, I think) and the latter's response to me sounds also rather genuine. I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Left my PC open while getting ready to sleep...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"
The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him

Okay. I think I see now what you mean. I read it differently in the beginning ("random" added to how you claimed Shasta was "in no way suspicious").

But as I think we see, the issue seems now to be what Shasta said, and did he leave any hints; did he dream of an innocent or a wolf; did he play carefully or recklessly etc.? And I think a few of us should take an independent look back there so that we could compare what people see.

Okay, off for now.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, I'm still finishing to read, but...

Ouch. Seer. Dead. (And I won't take the whole "I-told-you-so" approach, because my non-vote yesterDay was hardly better)

And I don't really think that the Ranger save, however good it was (and let me say here "Good work, Ranger") is really worth the seer, so I disagree with those people in the beginning of the Day who made it sound like that. On the bright side though, it does buy us a Day, so I'm not saying that it's not a reason to celebrate.

Anyway...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...

*Begins to uncl-* Oh, was that a no? Sorry.



But to more serious business now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry).

Well I had two options:

1. Join in the Shasta-waggon, which I didn't agree with (he just didn't seem any guiltier than he usually does on Day 1).
2. Cast a throwaway vote based on no good reasons, as I hadn't been around for most of the Day.

So I chose option 3: none of the above.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.

Is that really a good enough reason? Especially for a Seer. Then again, you could say the same about Pitch, which wasn't really that convincing.


More to come...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Erm, isn't that what you're meant to do with the Seer's suspicions?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier.

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response?

Or even if he hadn't dreamed pitch and just suspected him he could have been doing the same.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

That's not exactly true, because if they would all have voted for someone that had already been voted and I had too then there wouldn't have been a tie. Just pointing that out.

On the other hand, it's always very unlikely to get everyone to vote the same, especially on Day 1, which is why this much-too-easy-looking bandwaggon is so strange.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

I have to agree with this, which is why Lottie looks a bit self-contradictory, and in this case, maybe a bit suspicious too. Though it could be an innocent's confusion and change of mind as well (along the lines of "Well, if it was so obvious that Shasta looked innocent, why didn't you so something about it?"). It's hard to tell.

And I agree with whoever said that all the talk of people voting because of who they thought might be the seer is a little suspicious too.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

His first post was strange, to say the least. I didn't know what to make of it at the time, but when he hinted he had reasons for wanting to vote Shasta it came back to me.

x/d with Nog

[Eönwë]

Well, these are the options as I see them, in terms of the Pitch and Nerwen thing:


1. Nerwen is a wolf and Pitch is innocent. If we take any of Shasta's suggestions as hints, this is very unlikely.
2. Pitch is a wolf and Nerwen is innocent. Obviously, both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
3. Both are wolves. Both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
4. Both are innocent. Pitch would go for Nerwen's innocence, Nerwen would be unsure and wouldn't want to be become a wolf target.

Cobblers, on the other hand:

1. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is a wolf. Would go for Nerwen's innocence.
2. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is innocent. Would again go for Nerwen's innocence
3. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch innocent. Would go for Pitch's guiltiness.
4. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch wolvish. Would go for her innocence.

In summary:
Pitch will always go for Nerwen's innocence. Nerwen is more likely to go for her innocence too as a wolf, and as an innocent may be undecisive.

Also, if we lynch Pitch we will almost know whether Nerwen is innocent or not. Don't know whether that's a good idea.


PS. This post got messed up so I had to rewrite it. I probably x-ed with hundreds.

edit: I did.

[Eönwë]

++Lottie

Will explain later.

edit: x-ed with many.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the wagon one more time...

I'd say Glirdy and Legate were the people who made it move forwards at crucial points - fex. when some others had posted against suspecting them so much or cooling down - followed by Pitch.

Especially Glirdy looks quite bad with all those "I was thinking the same" and just popping in "one of the three is a wolf" + making the wagon rolling with the third vote. But even he didn't do it alone.

[Nogrod]

Tally, anyone?

Suggestions?

As Pitchie himself notes he is the favourite by Ockham's razor - the least complicated theory.

If we're not going for Pitchie (actually his own post of him being the evident choice made me back a step or two from wishing to lynch him), then who?

I was defending Lottie yesterDay because she just get lynched early so often and is for many the "easy lynch". But I must say what she has done toDay hasn't exactly helped me to stand by and defend her.

I could also consider lynching Glirdy for working the wagon at the right times and being the opportunist.

[Inziladun]

All right, I have to go ahead and vote.

Whatever Shasta was thinking yesterDay, there's only one way to be sure of Pitch. If we give him a pass, I feel it'll be hanging over us the rest of the game.

++Pitch

Sorry if you're innocent, mate. But I can't come up with a plausible scenario for Shasta to have done what he did which doesn't involve you being a wolf.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we're not going for Pitchie (actually his own post of him being the evident choice made me back a step or two from wishing to lynch him), then who?

Yeah...and would it be the wisest of things to have another massive bandwagon of votes? Umm, at least in this situation, there's not much risk to lose. If Pitch's is a wolf it's possible the wolves just want to go ahead and sacrifice him for the day and so that's why there hasn't been much opposition? And Pitch himself has kind of thrown in his accepted fate. But that is making me wary to have another 7-8+ votes onto one person where what can we then figure out from the votes.

Although, there's also the risk of passing up on a wolf because we're too nervous that it's so "obvious."

[Pitchwife]

Didn't really have time to look at everybody thoroughly, so these are rather impressionistic...

TRUST
Nerwen
Boro (for now, but I still have to look at him closer if I survive this)
Nog (no matter what I thought about him yesterDay, he looks like impartially trying to find out the truth toDay)

GREYISH AREA
Greenie
Zil
Glirdan

DON'T TRUST
Lottie (now I know she wasn't the Seer)
Legate (I have a strong hunch he's the cobbler)

NO CLEAR IDEA ABOUT
everybody else

[Pitchwife]

Ah what the heck, it's worth a try...

++Lottie

If I die, good luck village, and I'll keep my fingers crossed for the Ranger. Down with the wolves!

[skip spence]

Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!

Edit: Xed with a few people including Pitch whose question I've answered.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by skip

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process. Bigtime failure.

[Nogrod]

Well, I need to take back my words on Boro - or then he is the worst fellow-pusher I've ever seen (the stuff was there anyway, and someone would have inevitably found it, so why not do it oneself?).

Originally Posted by Legate

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.

Okay, two things with one quote...

I share the anticipation of hearing what Lottie has to say. She tends to be "naturally suspicious" (as I think I phrased it yesterDay) and so her looking that way is no news and says nothing about her lupinity. Also I think that the probability of her being a wolf rested on the scenario of them having a wolf-on-wolf yesterDay. Now as it turned out it wasn't a w-on-w... well, let us hear.

I see Legate keeps repeating this "Shasta was in no way suspicious-looking" -mantra - and it makes me worried. It does feel like the wisdom of the Owl of Minerva only taking to flight after the fact - or of someone who wishes others not to see the facts as they are - namely what Boro brought forwards from yesterDay.

I suspected Shasta for real yeaterDay - and was wrong, and sadly know better now. But him being the seer quite so explains the "out of the blue" consistent attacks on Pitchie - and the oddish case he made against him, and why he didn't vote for Lottie but Pitchie in the end. So those things that made him look so suspicious...

The only thing that bothers me with this interpretation is that it makes Shasta quite a reckless seer. That for sure merits some consideration as well. Is there any better explanation to his dream from N1?


Anyway, bedtime for me as I have an early morning call (1.20am now), but I should have plenty of time later the Day to do some real digging for the first time in this game.

EDIT: X'd with Pitchie

[Nerwen]

Here's something from early in the Day that I meant to comment on.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not.

Fair enough, and the point did occur to me too– though I rejected it when she started saying "but I could be wrong". However, why didn't Shasta's flimsy accusation of Pitch also strike you as Seerish?

[Nerwen]

Well, I have to vote now, so–

++Pitchwife the (hopefully) Furry Furrier

Good luck!

[Boromir88]

My Not going to vote for List because they aren't coming off as cobblery or wolfy.

Legate
Lottie
Nerwen
Greenie

Because out of the entire Shasta-Lottie thing they come out looking the most innocent. Nerwen and Greenie could be wolves who wanted to draw attention to it, but it looks more like just commenting on the first real action of the day. What happens afterwards is far more suspicious. Legate because he was the only one who voted (and said) for Lottie, saying she looked more wolvish. He could be a wolf just evening the votes up and seeing whatever way the wind blows, but he was the only one who actually stepped up for Shasta and put some action behind his words by voting for Lottie.

Lottie, I seriously think she is an innocent bystander caught up in a sneaky wolf plot. Because the other thing that is suspicious yesterday is how the convo turned into Lottie and Shasta being "wolf on wolf attack." Leaving the door open for when Shasta turned up innocent the wolves can just say "That must mean Lottie's the wolf!" for the same equally weak reasons that were used against Shasta.

Cobbler suspects and could possibly vote for if I'm not entirely confident in a wolf.

Wilwa
Nogrod

I mentioned Wilwa and my last post and shall wait for a response, but right now that self-vote looks like a cobbler signaling wolves more than anything.

I didn't say much about Nogrod yesterday because I thought then he was acting differently, "different" as in strange and cobblery. However, I didn't want to draw much attention to it because it wouldn't be the first time the seer pretended to be the cobbler to protect from being killed at night. We know now Nog isn't the seer so all of his strange behavior and today insistance to look at those he thinks chose the "moral high ground" to not vote for Shasta just looks straight up cobblery. I mean if I was the cobbler, I would definitely assume there were some wolves hiding in all those Shasta votes, and not knowing who they would be, would try to get attention to those who didn't bandwagon.

The rest of the bunch who are neither coming off as people I would not want to vote for nor the cobbler, and thus possible wolves who I may cast a vote for...

Glirdan
Skip
Inzil
Pitch
Ozban
Eonwe

I don't think I've left out anyone if I did they will also fall under this last list since that means I've clearly forgotten that you are even in this village.

Of 'em Inzil and Pitch look the most wolvish. Pitch for Shasta's posts and how he changed his position on the Shasta-Lottie affair. I'd like to hear from him, but he seems under the weather today. Hope you feel better, but I'll consider it only equally fair treatment to vote for you without being able to come on and say anything in defense. I will now and forever refer to this act as giving someone "The Shasta treatment."

Inzil because he was one of the ones who gave a pat to Greenie's post and vote Shasta. Even if it was only the 2nd vote on him, on Day 1, 2 votes usually a bandwagon doth make and that sparked the end result.

[Pitchwife]

A question for those (that's you, Zil and skip) who allegedly made the same mistake as me, thinking Lottie had seerish reasons to suspect Shasta: didn't it at least occur to you to give Shasta the same benefit of doubt? I naturally didn't consider it myself, knowing his suspect to be innocent (and was utterly flabbergasted when I read the narration), but since none of you could have known that (except, of course, if you're a wolf!), didn't the possibility at least occur to you?
By the way, in this respect I tend to find skip more genuine, since he gave this explanation without anybody suggesting it and it fits his line about undisclosed reasons yesterDay, whereas Zil only came up with it after both skip and me had already talked about it. For that reason, I'm not so happy with Greenie's vote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

There is something unnerving me about Lottie's recent post, if I say it shortly, sort of hypocrisy or what... it looks like that... ("oh you lynched shasta"). I know an innocent can start a bandwaggon unwillingly, but still this looks fake.

I voted for the only suspicion I had. I knew it wasn't a strong case. I have never seen this immense of a bandwagon before. Considering that there really weren't very strong reasons at all, I'd have expected another candidate with at least a few other votes. Yeah, it might be hypocritical, but there's a big difference from giving someone their first vote (and not seeing people starting to bandwagon before I left) and voting for someone after a definite bandwagon had already started.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You went after Shasta in the first place because of his strange vehemence against Pitchwife.

No. I went after him because his tone felt off - too defensive/aggresive. As it happens, that was because he was the Seer. I had no real reasons. The Pitchie-thing came after I first started to suspect him, and as far as I remember, was never a consideration in my suspicion.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above.

If it helps, when I read through, I was muttering "are you serious?" and "guuuuuys!" to myself. But, of course, there's no way to prove that, as it was already Nighttime.

And where did this Greenie suspicion come from anyway? I don't see her even in Lottie's list. Isn't it per any chance picking on what Nerwen just said about suspecting her, or a slip of mind where she noted to herself - as a Wolf - "Nerwen seemed to suspect Greenie, from now on I am pretending to trust her because of that explanation" and accidentally then messing it up in her head and writing her among the suspects? I can see that happening to a Wolf...

My suspicion of Greenie started in the first paragraph of that post, and the list led off of that. Possibly not the clearest, but that's the way my thoughts ended up looking.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

Agreeing with me is never a smart move, Vanilwuffin. Really, though, I don't mean to put all the blame on them - I'm fully aware that I made a huge mistake yesterDay - but, since I know that I'm innocent, it would not be helpful for me to make posts explaining why I look suspicious as opposed to looking for suspiciousness in other people.

EDIT: xed with Boro and I will be back later, but in a few hours, probably - and *whispers* I'm not really here now.

[Thinlómien]

It's DL, please stop posting. Pitch has been lynched. Narration to follow...

[A Little Green]

Agh, I was supposed to have hours and hours in early afternoon for playing, turned out I was desperately needed at work, and now I have to run again... Sorry for participating so crappily toDay, will definitely be more active toMorrow! This was totally unexpected and stupid.

So just a quick post - I have read the thread through, not as carefully as I'd like, and at the moment my top suspect is Skip, and I wouldn't mind trying Pitchwife either. Skip's Shasta-vote was opportunistic-looking, and his tone toDay strikes me as false. I'd provide you guys with exact quotes but I'm really in a hurry now. So here we go..

++ Skip

I hope I'm rather less catastrophically wrong than yesterDay. Choose well, sorry for being so inactive toDay, and good Night!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

I mentioned Wilwa and my last post and shall wait for a response, but right now that self-vote looks like a cobbler signaling wolves more than anything.

I wasn't around that much yesterDay due to school and dentist, and got home about 15 minutes before DL. I tried to skim through as best as I could, but basically all I saw was a bunch of Shasta votes and I didn't have a full understanding as to why everyone was voting him, and I didn't really see anyone else who looked suspicious (clearly, neither did many others). At that point as well it was going to be him, no matter who I voted for there was not much I could do about it, and I hadn't had the chance to really look at anyone else.

So I could either jump on the bandwaggon, vote randomly for someone else who I didn't find suspicious, I could not vote at all, or I could vote myself. First two were not an option to me, and so I decided to have a bit of fun rather than do nothing, and to me self-voting is very amusing.

There's your response. I'll be back on in a bit once I've eaten.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Me

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Fair enough, and the point did occur to me too– though I rejected it when she started saying "but I could be wrong". However, why didn't Shasta's flimsy accusation of Pitch also strike you as Seerish?

Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Really, though, not liking Shasta. Too non-confrontational, and the way he words this especially:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though...

[Boromir88]

I'm here til the DL. Right now, my vote is leaning towards Pitch.

Where's everyone buggered off to? I was actually hoping for a bit more chatter by the time I got back.

[skip spence]

This passage struck me as rather unnerving:

Originally Posted by Boro Day 1

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by skip spence

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

Are you being serious? I think yesterday's lynch is clear enough to classify as a stupid lynch. But you're reading me wrong and interpretting stuff that just isn't there. I'm not saying anything about, "oh hoi there we like being stupid and lynch our own gifteds." I was trying to remind everyone of the dangers of Day 1.

We can't know a bad lynch from a good lynch until the outcome, but we can at least be a bit more reasonable than piling votes onto one person for trivial and weak reasons.

However, usually if someone can't be around to say anything or defend themselves from weak accusations they're usually given the benefit of the doubt for the day and allowed to respond the next. To keep piling up the posts onto a person who can't defend themselves is a bad decision. (It has nothing to do with taking a "moral high ground" it's just something that more often than not turns out badly. Pitch should know this from his first go as a seer. When he couldn't be at the DL to speak for himself and a bandwagon happened against him).

Also, being "defensive" doesn't necessarily mean a guaranteed wolf sign. So the multiple people ooh...Shasta's aggressive and defensive he's obviously suspicious, without considering he could have very good reasons to not want to be lynched is also a bad decision. It's the same thing when you get the feeling that someone is "up to something"...well yes a seer would probably be up to something, not everyone up to something = wolf.

That is why on Day 1's, I typically try to vote for someone who has left absolutely no impressions on me, because when we can't know anything for sure, voting for the person being "defensive" or the person "up to something," might be a wolf but wolvish behavior and gifted behavior is more similar than they are different. Where someone who is submarining is more than likely an ordo or a wolf trying to hide. Yeah, it sucks if the submarine is an ordo, but it's not nearly as bad of a decision as a vote for somebody who is leaving strong impressions on Day 1. And when you're just starting from scratch you can't tell, it's much safer to watch the person for a day or so, until you get a better idea of what he/she is doing. Instead of basing votes more on emotion because someone's aggressiveness or defensiveness or whatever random easy excuse someone can drum up.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Skip's post this responds to.

[wilwarin538]

So I see people are still rather confused about the possiblity of Pitch being Shasta's dream (I'm seeing lots of "he went after him so much, but that's just so obvious") and I feel the exact same way. So the solution to me seems to be to lynch Pitch. No, he may not look overly suspicious on his own, but our Seer thought he was, and we lynched the poor guy, so maybe we should do what he wanted to do?

If we're wrong than that will suck, and Shasta will have some explaining to do about why he went after Pitch so hard; if we're right than awesome, and we can move on to someone else toMorrow. Cause if we don't do this now, Pitch will still be a major point of discussion tomorrow, and I'd rather not waste so much time. Let's just find out.

++Pitchwife

If he turns up innocent than we can assume that Shasta dreamt Nerwen (or possibly Legate) and then we'll have someone we feel fairly good about, which is a good thing too. It just seems to me to be the most logical course of action, and the only way to have a better idea of who Shasta actually dreamed of, instead of just speculating indefinetely.

x'ed with Boro and Skip

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer.

Fair enough, but I don't think you've convincingly explained yet why you picked out Shasta in the first place. And this

Originally Posted by Lottie

No. I went after him because his tone felt off - too defensive/aggresive.

is not a good answer, for his tone only changed after you accused him first for that utterly unsuspicious rules clarification.

Since somebody (I think Boro, but can't be bothered to check now) pointed out that I changed my mind about the Shasta-Lottie affair yesterDay - yep, I did, and I'm afraid Shasta going after me like he did played a part in that. I probably should have shrugged it off, and was quite willing to do so in the beginning (what Nog has called my 'defensive thoroughness' was mostly for the relish of demolishing that ridiculous case); it was only later in the Day that I had the misguided idea that Lottie could be the Seer, which made the balance shift against Shasta.

As for the building of the bandwagon, if it still matters:

Originally Posted by my voting post #96

EDIT: x-ed from #85 down

Glirdan's was #87 (but he x-ed himself with a lot of people)
(And yes, I really wavered that long over these few lines. Believe it. I wouldn't lie about technicalities even as a wolf.)