WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I actually have more time than I originally thought I would have and I am back already, so a few comments: I'm starting to feel quite well about Boro (especially his post 139, which seems both okay to me when it comes to its substance as well as it seeming genuinely innocent, which is the main point) and also Nerwen because of her posts and responses (sort of similar case). I am not still so sure about Lottie. For that matter, I would still like to know more about her picks - so is it just choosing the best possible pick for lynch since you don't actually have much of an idea about anybody, do I get it right?

For that matter, I will really have to vote soon (in, say, two hours at most), so I should just start slowly deciding... I have basically two main options right now, that being Glirdy and Lottie.

Otherwise: Boro, Nerwen, Pitch I feel quite good about at the moment, wilwa also although now she hasn't posted much and her last post was nothing special, but I probably won't be around to hear more from her; Ozban I am watching, but convinced to leave him be for the time being and just observe; skip I feel a bit better about from his early toDay posting, Nogrod has still some questionmarks but likewise he is not so heavily alarming now, Greenie and Eönwë I have very little idea about and Inzil too, with some more like gut-feeling of uneasiness with him, but that's mostly it.

I'm thinking that at least one Wolf might be among the two I am considering to vote right now, Glirdy looks a bit more likely to be a baddie to me, but we shall see. I'll check a few times if anybody posts anything, and then I will have to vote and go.

[Nerwen]

I keep thinking about the "who did Shasta dream?" question. I think it has to be either me (innocent) or Pitch (wolf).

In support of the theory that it was me we have the fact that the wolves and Ranger both picked the same person, suggesting that they were following the same line of reasoning. Now, the wolves, unlike the Ranger obviously wouldn't have seen me as a "dreamed innocent" if they knew that the Seer's dream had been one of them.

In support of the theory that it was Pitch, we have Shasta's otherwise inexplicable "case" on him. We also have, perhaps, the fact of the huge bandwagon. I'm still not sure who was driving the thing, but it surely had wolfish involvement– could the wolves have picked him as the Seer, and taken the opportunity to get rid of him?

Reading through yesterDay, I can't see any good reason for Shasta to act as he did unless he'd got a wolf– and yet Pitch nowhere sounds wolfish, except perhaps in his vote-post.

As for the Shasta-voters... actually they all look quite suspicious after another read-though. I'm not sure what to think yet.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Legates.

[Ozban]

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

Pitch never sounded wolfish, but that scenario of him being dreamt unnerves me. eventhough it seems to me more likely, that Nerwen was dreamt about. From Shasta's formulation of his trust towards her... Still can't now. (Actually I begin to think it's motto of this whole game: Do something when you know nothing. )

Those last two votes, Nog n Greenie, are quite suspicious. Reading through Nog's posts, he remains active, but refrains from attacking anybody. Now I'd really need comparison with some of his older games, whether it's totaly normal or not.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let this not be forgotten toMorrow if Shasta is innocent!

This speaks for him though, doesn't it?

Serching for traces of some manipulation, as Nerwen suggested, I tend to think that it wasn't Nog's doing. I'm convinced though, that among Shasta-voters were at least one, more likely two wolves.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

Also...

Originally Posted by skip spence

You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta

What the hell???
I don't know. Seems too carefree, too crowd-loving if you know what I mean.

And...

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Not that it makes any difference now..

++ Shasta

Because of what I've said before, don't have the time or energy to repeat everything.

Same.

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

Truth is, sadly I know none of you, in-game at least. So it's hard to guess peoples intentions, without comparision with their previous styles.

Later...

[Ozban]

X'ed previous with Wilwa.

You seem quite bloodthirsty ya know?
Your logic is sound though.
Is it your Lupine hunger?
About that we should ponder.
Or you may really fear for your skin.
In that case, we shall protect your kin.
Considering danger upon our head,
we need now more to be said.
Only then we may truth discern,
And to Nargothrond return.

Later...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

To some extent I do see Lottie's point– she just cast the first vote, whereas the actual bandwaggoning happened later. All the same, it wasn't as if she'd made an early semi-random vote and everyone jumped on it– she in fact played quite a role in building up suspicion on Shasta.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Ok, I know that it looks too obvious to be Pitch, but are we seriously going to gamble with this? There's a chance that he was Shasta's dream, that should be enough to lynch him. We know Shasta obviously had a dream, and I would think he'd leave some sort of clue somewhere.

I concur. But it's a bit of a dilemma– do we lynch Lottie, who has behaved suspiciously, or Pitch, who hasn't at all, but who has a major piece of evidence against him?
I'm thinking at the moment it should be one of those two. At least they're not mutually exclusive as villains.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I have to say, knowing Shasta, that if Pitchwolf was his dream and we decide to ignore the hints, Shasta will mass murder us out of frustration.

Unless his head explodes first...

Originally Posted by Wilwa

x'ed with Nerwen, and just had a thought, Nerwen would be a likely Night 1 dream for Shasta, but I still think we shouldn't let Pitch get by

I forgot to say that in my last post, but it's bugging me too.

Originally Posted by Ozban

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

Actually, casting the first vote is something wolves quite like to do– nobody can really blame you when that person is lynched and turns out innocent. And "gut-feeling" is something wolves can fall back on when they can't fake-up a better case on an innocent.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

I don't like the way Legate went back and forth and seemed to contradict himself yesterDay... but that's all I've got on him at the moment.

Originally Posted by Ozban

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

It could be. Those two, from memory, were in fact the ones who most pushed the notion that "if one of them's a wolf it's Shasta". ANd Zil was quite twisty.

EDIT:X'd with Boro and Ozban-turned-poet.
EDIT2: word left out.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I keep think about the "who did Shasta dream?" question. I think it has to be either me (innocent) or Pitch (wolf).

In support of the theory that it was me we have the fact that the wolves and Ranger both picked the same person, suggesting that they were following the same line of reasoning. Now, the wolves, unlike the Ranger obviously wouldn't have seen me as a "dreamed innocent" if they knew that the Seer's dream had been one of them.

Hmm, usually the early kills are either set for who the wolves think the Seer is, or to be trailless. We know the former option wasn't on their mind last night.

The ranger's mind was on the same page as the wolves last night, but I don't think the seer dream would have been much of a consideration. Like you said, if one of the wolves thought they were dreamed, then they wouldn't be considering killing a "dreamed innocent." But even if they didn't think one of them was Shasta's dream, with how trailless and little Shasta's posts were, they couldn't find any obvious clues that would lead us to the "dreamed innocent" to be all that concerned about killing the "dreamed innocent." That's a bit jumpled, but in summary, I think now you're over-complicating it.

In support of the theory that it was Pitch, we have Shasta's otherwise inexplicable "case" on him. We also have, perhaps, the fact of the huge bandwagon. I'm still not sure who was driving the thing, but it surely had wolfish involvement– could the wolves have picked him as the Seer, and taken the opportunity to get rid of him?

Reading through yesterDay, I can't see any good reason for Shasta to act as he did unless he'd got a wolf– and yet Pitch nowhere sounds wolfish, except perhaps in his vote-post.

I agree that band-wagon had wolvery written all over it. With regards to Pitch, the only thing that looks more worse for him is his first response to Lottie (about Shasta) was...

Originally Posted by Pitch, #48

On the Shasta-Lottie thing: Basically, Lottie's saying "I do suspect him in earnest, but I could be wrong" - and of course she could, such is the lot of an ordo, therefore it's trivial and she might as well not have bothered to say it. Peppering her suspicion with disclaimers like that does have a smell of wolvish caution, and it doesn't help that I don't see anything remotely worrying in that quote of Shasta she started her suspicion from.

He would later adjust his tune to suspecting Shasta more and eventually voting for him. Of course people change and waffle back and forth, but it may be worthy to point out. He first seems to regard the Lottie-Shasta trifle as a trivial row between 2 innocents, but changes to suspecting Shasta.

I'm beating on the same drum about that band-wagon (and I'm skeptical of Nogrod suggesting it was justified because Shasta was so obviously suspicious), but Nerwen's absolutely right that's got wolf prints all over it. I think Legate, or Nerwen, or someone had mentioned this early but worth saying again. When you have that type of attention and battle between two people usually there is a much mroe even split and division, and there was none, which suggests wolves pushed a bandwagon onto Shasta.

Now this doesn't mean they were protecting a bandwagon against a wolf-Lottie, maybe they saw an opportunity to implicate both by getting a bandwagon against Shasta, but at the same time framing an innocent-Lottie to make it look like they were protecting her.

I can't tell who drove it either, but I do know this. Greenie gives her 4 possibilities and seems to take the side that Lottie looks more innocent than Shasta. Nerwen interprets it differently and seems to think of the two Shasta looks more innocent (correct?) So there's the split, and you've got Shasta of course saying Greenie's reasons for defending Lottie were junk.

Greenie and/or Nerwen could be wolves here to put more focus on the two, however for now I think they were both commenting on the first spark of action in the day that wasn't cobbler talk. What's more suspicious is everything after the split of opinion, everyone piles onto Shasta.

The talk evolves into a "wolf on wolf" between Lottie and Shasta, and in those situations it really should be 50-50, with how people interpret things differently, but instead it was all a thumbs up for Greenie's post and Shasta looks more suspicious. Which, is also suspicious, I mean what was so spectacular about Greenie's post (no offense Greenie)? What it essentially was is...here's 4 possibilities between Lottie and Shasta, any one of them is equally possible? I also recall a lot of Shasta is getting very aggressive and defensive (so latching onto Lottie's self-admitted "gut feelings") to pile against Shasta.

That whole situation after Greenie and Nerwen's differing opinions (and it's important to add Legate's vote for Lottie because he felt of the two Lottie was more suspicious) is wolvish. You should see a continued even-split in votes and what we get is consistent several pats on the back for Greenie's post, and a move to "Lottie and Shasta look wolf-on-wolf...Shasta looks like the wolf more than Lottie!)

One thing away from the band-wagon yesterday, to say to is about Wilwa's self-vote. It may be the frustration of having a meaningless vote, but it looks pretty weird and flippant. More like a cobbler signal to the wolves though than a wolf casting a meaningless vote. She said she never had the chance to vote for herself, seems to have wanted to and now was as good of a chance as any, but also find yourself a good opportunity to say "Here's your cobbler wolvsies," Wilwa?

Pre-edit: because I've got distracted by an outside convo and this post has taken longer than anticipated, so I'm sure I've crossed. Nerwen's post that I reply to here is the last one I read.