WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

Good. Others? Any picks? I have no preference myself as whom to pick as it feels like most of you have went under my radar.

And surely we don't need to try and organise this in a way that everyone really gets a task - and no overlapping allowed - and will report on certain hour or anything.

I mainly wished people started also looking elsewhere they have done thus far - and do something about it.


On another note... why do you guys always vote saying "for previously stated reasons" - it takes a maddening amount of time to go back for pages there and actually find them...

(Okay, honestly I know, it's in a hurry people vote at last minutes, but it still is a task to get them. But I should be readu shortly.)

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting from yesterDay. I have added a few comments there but my main comments will come in a separate post.

about 12 hours before DL
Lottie -> Skip

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

about 3 hours before DL
Boro -> Eönwë

Originally Posted by Boro

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

from this on only the minutes before DL in front of the votes

0:30
Nerwen -> Skip 2
Dead innocent…

The last minute's frenzy begins...

0:06
Green -> Skip 3
A case built up in post #255 (page 7)
*someone please remind me how to make links to individual posts!*

0:06
Ozban -> Legate

Originally Posted by Ozban

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

0:03
Skip -> Legate 2

Originally Posted by Skip

I guess I'd have to go with Legate

(survival reasons?)
There is the huge Legalysis on posts #229 & #230 (page 6). The outcome of it seemed to boil down on this:

Originally Posted by Skip

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

0:01
wilwa -> Legate 3

Originally Posted by wilwa

I don't like. He's very wishy-washy, seems to go back in forth with his opinions, and just maybe wants to seem more useful then he is and wants to keep everyone happy. I'm leaning that he could be the Cobbler, but I'm suspicious enough of him to vote him.

0:01
Nog -> Lottie

Originally Posted by me

her explanation that she tried to pull out a seer-impression on D1 looks pretty dubious. Also her vote yesterDay for Pitchie while first driving for other solutions - and in the votepost suspecting Skip the most...

But also the fact that Legate suggested voting Lottie and I wanted to see competition with the voting - not knowing wilwa had voted for Leg...

0:01
Legate -> Skip 4
Dead innocent’s self-preservation

Originally Posted by Leg

Just in case somebody wanted to vote ME still. I guess the lottie-plan should've started a bit earlier... again we are at bandwagon...

0:00
Eönwë -> Lottie 2

Originally Posted by Steve

Definitely not liking Lottie. Just reread Day 1.On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

0:00
Inzil -> Legate 4

Originally Posted by Zil

A lot to digest in a short period of time. My apologies.

A self-preservation vote?

[Nogrod]

A few comments on the voting.

Lottie - Nothing stands out from there, although most of us have really poor voting records so to single out Skip for it... Also - and there might be a perfectly reasonable answer to this - it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Boro says himself his vote is kind of crappy, but actually I understand it quite well. If you have no good suspects and no time why not go for a quiet enigma? ToDay it's probably different because we can't afford blind-lynchings and I think Steve has talked a bit more so maybe he could be read now? On the other hand - if Lottie and / or Skip were his packmates that would have been quite a nice idea to try and open up that kind of waggon earlyish (I mean I actually thought of taking on that yesterDay - but in the end it seemed we had better candidates under votes).

Greenie clearly made an effort to find the wolf or to back her suspicion in public. The question is, which one was she doing?

Ozban is a curios one. His voting looks quite so understandable, but somehow I feel that not everything is quite right there. When voting he said he had "repeated his reasons several times" but the only thing I found from yesterDay was him agreeing on Skip's thoughts on Leg. And his first post toDay about how he had started thinking Leg better and actually suspecting Skip (deep in his mind but not talking of it to us) is just so confusing...

Now it all might be genuine. I do see that possibility. But would also fit with a Wolfban who needed to talk himself out from the suspicions as an innocent-killer. And even if I dislike bringing up this kind of points as I do think every newbie to the game should be taken in as himself and what he says, it kind of smells like someone had adviced him last Night (like in the previous Nights?). It is - as he says - quite a "Legate 180" he performs there from the cool Legate lyncher with his many times stated reasons to this person who "almost knew" he was innocent - and who actually suspected the other guy near the gallows who survived - but still failed to act on that. Hard to say.

Skip's vote is easy to see as a self-preservation measure. Both wolves and innocents like to survive - and I still think he's the hunter.

Wilwa's vote basically doesn't raise eyebrows: she had brought forwards this massive analysis and acted probably on that (although she really didn't give us others a chance to read the conclusion-part of it posting the mega-post two minutes before the DL ). I'm not going to go through those analysis right now (it's way too late), but I do think there is a structural problem with ner nice point system (if she's innocent; it is a meant failure if she's a wolf); as I skimmed through her analysis of D1 yesterDay I saw that I got a fair amount of minuses from just having a different opinion in an issue of principle (I got fex. two minuses for saying twice that the wolves in general tend to want to please people and be nice, to rub them the right way!). So are you sure about your system wilwa - or are you doing something completely different with it?

My vote... okay I'm not the one to comment on that in this way. But therefore I left a short reasoning in the actual vote-post.

Legate: a dead innocent's self-preservation vote.

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Zil's vote seems to have been a self-preservation vote as well. As such it doesn't tell one of his affinities though.


Boro asked earlier how the Le Wagon happened. I can give you at least a partial explanation: two out of four votes to Leg were self-preservation votes...


NB. These speculations concern only the voting yesterDay. I need to try and look how they fit the larger picture later toDay. But now bedtime is reaching me.


EDIT: X'd with wilwa... and what, did I spent over an hour on that? Uh-oh.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwa

Why it doesn't make sense: he says I never wavered about Pitch, then says I looked more cobblerish, and then says he'd expect the cobbler to waver. Hmm?

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave?

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?

So, for your idea Nogrod. I think it's good. I shall check wilwa and Eonwe. Most likely that'll come sometime in the afternoon, since I've gotta be up early and will be heading to rest earlier than usual.

I also think no one's done a good hard look at Greenie, if I have time I shall try, she hasn't posted a great amount due to being rushed, so shouldn't be a problem. Anyone think they can do a fair analysis of Lottie? I had read through Day 1 again, basically everything she said came off evil looking and I'm afraid when I continue onto Day 2 and Day 3 that will block my more sensible judgement. So, many times we've left a wolf who was almost lynched skate on through for the rest of the game. On the other hand, I need not get carried away and go completely panicky and unhinged when in these do or die situations. It tends to cause more trouble than good.

On that note, that makes me think too that Nog's idea is a very good one. Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Scheduals - DL is noon my time. My church usually goes until one (counting chatting afterwards) so I couldn't make it yesterDay. Wednesday and Thursday are also bad (Thursday more so). And I actually like last-minute voting better than early voting by quite a large margin.

EDIT: x'd with Boro

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave?

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?

Now that makes sense, I brought that quote forward because the way it was worded was confusing, and I couldn't figure out what you were trying to say. It just seemed to go against itself. But I get it now.

And yeah I am a bit anxious, but not for that reason (victory for my side seems quite out of grasp at the moment). I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.

Gah, I need to sleep, I'm starting to get snippy. I'll try to be on as much as I can tomorrow, but that sadly won't be a lot (school and other such nonsense).

[Inziladun]

Day 1:

Most smilies removed.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Greenie, great job summarizing what everyone knows already. We know nothing, whatever the reason their (meant Lottie and Shasta of course) exchange had, we can't know. Unless they care to explain. I keep wondering what led you to writing such a list...

First post. Yes, what Greenie summarised about the Shasta / Lottie deal wasn't much of a revelation, but I still don't see anything wrong with it.

Originally Posted by Ozban

And yes, traitor/cobbler can be anybody, possibly one of those Cobb-hunt theoretists. Again, we know not.

For my part: that Lottie-shasta conversation was most likely just a random recon. Wouldn't make too much fuzz around it.

Dismisses the whole thing as "random recon". What exactly does that mean?

Originally Posted by Ozban

Pitch:

I hope you are not gonna change the history records. Would be troublesome you know, not that suprising though.

Legate: I'm so glad we (more like Nerwen) convinced you about importance of cobbler, I'm so glad you won't be "ignoring" him.


You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Let's find WWs. That should be our priority. One point I'll agree on with Legate.

Can't really find fault with that bit.

Originally Posted by Ozban

My friends, what is happening to you? Yesterday's friends turning suspicious at the first sign of danger. Shall we abandon all we were because of that damned Wolf Lord reigning these dungeons? Stand up for what you are, hold on to what we were through. Hunting wolves, we put our lives on the line many times. We relied on each other, now you seem forgeting our bonds. If there are traitors among us, we will find them, whatever the cost. But let's not accuse others without any solid evidence. "Yet hope remains while the Company is true." as Lord Felagund would say. And furthermore, I can't stand the thought of Sauron's amusement when he sees us turning on each other.

This strikes me as odd, but maybe it's just an innocent IC effort. Still, it almost sounds like a lupine "C'mon guys, let's get those wolves!" spoken in Tolkien-like prose.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm not convinced either. Neither that you are WW, neither that you aren't.



And do you really think someone would cease to suspect you because you disagree with them? Wouldn't convince me at least.



I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.



Aye Legate! You just uncovered our tactical masterpiece.

Some back-and-forth with Pitch and Boro. Legate noted that Boro's mistake about Ozban's gender was an old wolf-ploy between mates. No way to know here.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Fair thought, There are quite a few "submarinish" guys out there. That's surely worth considering. Don't they have time? Or they just stay low purposefully?

Oh screw it! this is too much for my mind to analyze.

Response to Nog.

Originally Posted by Ozban

It may be stupid, or completely out of the league, but...

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

A vote for Legate, which seemed rather out of the blue. I didn't pick up on the "sixth sense" remark at the time. Setting the stage for a false Seer-claim, maybe? Hmm. He's new, so it's impossible to tell if the phrasing is usual for him.

Day 2:

Originally Posted by Ozban

Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

As for the ranger, Te Saluto!

And cause everything is said,
Oz retires to his bed.

Good night, fellow corpses.

The first part was responding to Legate, who'd said of Oz's vote the day before:

I must say that wilwa seemed okay to me from those people who voted randomly - she sounded genuinely frustrated, while Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".

The vote did look like a "hands clean" thing, but he certainly was direct and confident with his explanation.

Originally Posted by Ozban

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

Hmm. Just saw this. Mixed up Lottie's gender, but then got it right in the same paragraph? Odd.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

Pitch never sounded wolfish, but that scenario of him being dreamt unnerves me. eventhough it seems to me more likely, that Nerwen was dreamt about. From Shasta's formulation of his trust towards her... Still can't now. (Actually I begin to think it's motto of this whole game: Do something when you know nothing.)

Legate seems a bit better to him, though he'll still "observe him closer". Also thinks Nerwen more likely to have been Shasta's dream. As it looks now, she almost certainly was, but that surely didn't appear to be the most likely scenario to me at the time.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Those last two votes, Nog n Greenie, are quite suspicious. Reading through Nog's posts, he remains active, but refrains from attacking anybody. Now I'd really need comparison with some of his older games, whether it's totaly normal or not.


This speaks for him though, doesn't it?

Serching for traces of some manipulation, as Nerwen suggested, I tend to think that it wasn't Nog's doing. I'm convinced though, that among Shasta-voters were at least one, more likely two wolves.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

Also...

What the hell???
I don't know. Seems too carefree, too crowd-loving if you know what I mean.

And...

Same.

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

Truth is, sadly I know none of you, in-game at least. So it's hard to guess peoples intentions, without comparision with their previous styles.

He didn't like the manner in which skip and Greenie voted, thinking it was "carefree" and "crowd-loving". If I get his meaning, I would agree about skip's but not necessarily Greenie's. Then thought Eönwë was trustworthy for defending Shasta? Why was that? If I recall correctly, Shasta was done for by the time Steve got there. Standing up for Shasta at that point was meaningless.

Originally Posted by Ozban

X'ed previous with Wilwa.

You seem quite bloodthirsty ya know?
Your logic is sound though.
Is it your Lupine hunger?
About that we should ponder.
Or you may really fear for your skin.
In that case, we shall protect your kin.
Considering danger upon our head,
we need now more to be said.
Only then we may truth discern,
And to Nargothrond return.

Later...

Hmm. Poetry. Seems odd, but maybe he just does this. It's hard to judge with a new player.

Originally Posted by Ozban

++Pitchwife

Got to hurry now, so I won't explain myself entirely. Simply it's too stupid to let it get away.

Won't probably be back before DL.

Choose wisely.

Later...

Votes Pitch, despite saying earlier he thought Nerwen was probably Shasta's dream. He left the door open for Pitch in that same post, granted.

Day 3"

Originally Posted by Ozban

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

Has Legate, skip, me, and Lottie for his "suspect" list.

Originally Posted by Ozban

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Interesting. Opens the door for voting Legate, and now is quite happy with skip seemingly, despite having him in the "suspect" category the previous post. And Oz himself "doubted Pitch's furriness" by saying Nerwen was likely Shasta's dream and that Pitch "never sounded wolvish".

Originally Posted by Ozban

He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Originally Posted by Ozban

This is called Silence before the storm...

Might seem a bit flippant, there.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Hilarious But joining in crossed my mind too.

I have other options though, especially you!

Ok. Responds to Legate saying he was considering joining the bandwagon for skip. Back to suspecting him, again?

Originally Posted by Ozban

+ + Legate

Can't help myself, but to find him treacherous. I have repeated my reasons several times. So I'll refrain from doing it again.

First vote for Legate. We know how that turned out.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Time's running out, lightning was seen, thunder's to be heard any moment.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Kid? you are about 4 months older than me!!

Banter with Wilwa.


Day 4

Originally Posted by Ozban

I feel really bad, I blame myself for the Legate's death. Now there are nine of us left, four of that Bad-guys. We really are screwed.

Let's go all out: there's not much option left, is there? I got nothing to lose anyway, everything i did was wrong so far. And this is the only day to save the game.

During yesterDay my opinion on Legate has risen significantly. I was able to belive, that he was innocent. It was my personal-180, can't list any specific reasons, but just the change in his style caught my attention and than I reconsidered.
In that moment I started looking for wolves elsewhere, Skip being my first new choice.
After first votes were cast I was convinced that Skip's fate is sealed and evethough I deemed him a wolf, I opted not to join the wagon. My reasons were:

a) I seemed obvious that he'll be lynched even without my contribution.
b) I wanted to lay low, not to draw much attention from hairy side.
c) And finally, as I was convinced of Skip's furriness, I wanted to give puppies a tempting offer whom to vote, to try to save their comrade. I wanted to lure them to a "trap", having them to reveal their desire to save Skip. Skip cast vote for Legate right after and that sealed my suspicion of him.

I already mentioned this earlier, but three votes, with many left to go, doesn't seem to be a surefire lynch on someone you think is a wolf. And he was "convinced of skip's furriness" despite using skip's analysis as a reason to suspect Legate again?

Originally Posted by Ozban

Things turned out different, unfortunately. And what shocked me most was Inzil's vote. Last moment Skip-saviour. That stroke me as wolf pulling wolf out of the trouble at the last moment. Until reading skip's toDay's post I was convinced that they are wolves together, not knowing who the third is wasn't of much importance, eventhough I had few candidates.

Now I realize that my plan was naive at best, I did not consider Skip's eventual innocence. He must not be necesarily innocent though, his hunter-claim is hardly a proof. And my theory can still apply, I'm not that sure about it anymore, though.

I know this what i described can look false, It's a fragile construction, I realize that. Furthermore I got no proof on the matter, but please, consider it at least.

If someone can bring any light as to Skip's innocence/guilt, please do.

Damn It!! My head's gonna explode. That is, unless I drown in my pesonal sea of shame.

Originally Posted by Ozban

It was three against one and public opinion was favoring Skip as the beast, as I said, I was being naive. But I was so certain of my reasoning at that moment, not so much now.

Explains his "mistakes" as naïveté. Yet he's seemed to be very at home and savvy to the game, for a newbie. I don't know if he's played WW before, but he surely doesn't act like he's new.

Conclusions: Some concerns could be written off as personality quirks, but there's been a deal of inconsistancy too. I'm rather worried about him, at the moment.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Well, it seems that this DL is not good for me. I only get back home about three hours before DL (I have a free morning today), and at that point I was rereading Lottie's posts and I had only just finished Day 1.

And I wanted to look more closely at Legate before even thinking about voting him. Of course, now we know he's innocent.

Ok, I have about 20 minutes left, I'll try to do a list of what I think of people.