WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Wilwa, I understand what you are saying and find you genuine, but I still believe that I made the right decision in revealing.

Well.....no, I don't think you did. Sorry, but I don't. And I don't trust you.

And I believe you just slipped up. Here:

Originally Posted by Skip

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

Cause if the Hunter gets Night killed while Hunting an innocent, only the Hunter dies.

So yeah. Definitely don't believe you now buddy.

[wilwarin538]

*headdesk*

Ignore that last part, I just realised what he actually meant there, and it's not what I thought. Sorry Skip.

But I still don't trust you.

[skip spence]

Yeah, I was just about to point that out, Wilwa.

To Whom It May Concern:

Don't be hasty now, please! We can ill afford another mistake...


And wouldn't it be fab to turn this thing around!

Bedtime for me now, but should be able to return around 6-7 CET

[Nogrod]

Okay... and interesting. I've always thought deep emotionally written regrets more or less fishy but this self-bashing going on is just weird!


Anyway. How about we made a deal toDay, that everyone would pick at least one person who is flying under her/his radar? And then we'd do some analysing. I mean we have as a whole suspected harder only a few people (and most of them are now dead) and what have we got? So I think we need to spread the suspicions to include more people.

I don't say that means Lottie and Skip - the only two left who have been heavily suspected and voted for - are innocents just because they have been suspected and no baddies are dead.

If we'd had to vote right now, I'd probably vote for Lottie as she still seems the most suspicious of you (and I tend to trust Skip's revealment unless someone shows me a motive for the baddies to try that out). But even if I was right, only concentrating on Lottie and Skip we let the other two to smirk and smile in the background - or in the foreground, whatever: with no fear of getting caught.

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

*going to check the voting now*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

Good. Others? Any picks? I have no preference myself as whom to pick as it feels like most of you have went under my radar.

And surely we don't need to try and organise this in a way that everyone really gets a task - and no overlapping allowed - and will report on certain hour or anything.

I mainly wished people started also looking elsewhere they have done thus far - and do something about it.


On another note... why do you guys always vote saying "for previously stated reasons" - it takes a maddening amount of time to go back for pages there and actually find them...

(Okay, honestly I know, it's in a hurry people vote at last minutes, but it still is a task to get them. But I should be readu shortly.)

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting from yesterDay. I have added a few comments there but my main comments will come in a separate post.

about 12 hours before DL
Lottie -> Skip

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

about 3 hours before DL
Boro -> Eönwë

Originally Posted by Boro

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

from this on only the minutes before DL in front of the votes

0:30
Nerwen -> Skip 2
Dead innocent…

The last minute's frenzy begins...

0:06
Green -> Skip 3
A case built up in post #255 (page 7)
*someone please remind me how to make links to individual posts!*

0:06
Ozban -> Legate

Originally Posted by Ozban

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

0:03
Skip -> Legate 2

Originally Posted by Skip

I guess I'd have to go with Legate

(survival reasons?)
There is the huge Legalysis on posts #229 & #230 (page 6). The outcome of it seemed to boil down on this:

Originally Posted by Skip

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

0:01
wilwa -> Legate 3

Originally Posted by wilwa

I don't like. He's very wishy-washy, seems to go back in forth with his opinions, and just maybe wants to seem more useful then he is and wants to keep everyone happy. I'm leaning that he could be the Cobbler, but I'm suspicious enough of him to vote him.

0:01
Nog -> Lottie

Originally Posted by me

her explanation that she tried to pull out a seer-impression on D1 looks pretty dubious. Also her vote yesterDay for Pitchie while first driving for other solutions - and in the votepost suspecting Skip the most...

But also the fact that Legate suggested voting Lottie and I wanted to see competition with the voting - not knowing wilwa had voted for Leg...

0:01
Legate -> Skip 4
Dead innocent’s self-preservation

Originally Posted by Leg

Just in case somebody wanted to vote ME still. I guess the lottie-plan should've started a bit earlier... again we are at bandwagon...

0:00
Eönwë -> Lottie 2

Originally Posted by Steve

Definitely not liking Lottie. Just reread Day 1.On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

0:00
Inzil -> Legate 4

Originally Posted by Zil

A lot to digest in a short period of time. My apologies.

A self-preservation vote?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Well.....no, I don't think you did. Sorry, but I don't. And I don't trust you.

Either way you try to break it down, we don't have the luxury to use the hunter to his greatest strength because of the situation we're in.

Earlier, yes, a revealed hunter means he most likely can't use his gift because the wolves would be wary to attack the known hunter. But today we need known innocents to make it to tomorrow. And even if we lynch a wolf today we're still going to be behind the 8-ball. The wolves will be in a jam to either keep the known hunter around or risk killing him at night. So, the notion that a revealed hunter is completely useless is a terrible one.

I revealed as the hunter in on of Nogrod's villages and kept daring them to kill me each night. They wouldn't, so they kept around a known innocent day after day, and then missed the opportunity to kill me when I didn't have a wolf picked. This notion that if Skip's the hunter he made a bad decision is completely false. In the best situations, yes we'd want the hunter to stay hidden, get picked by the wolves and take one down. We no longer have this luxury and a known hunter is still useful in giving us an innocent, as well as someone the wolves will be hardpressed to take the risk in killing. Because if we manage to kill a wolf today, we still got a mighty climb and if the wolves want to keep the known hunter around to help during the day, that still a bigger benefit to us than them.

I said why I understood his reasons and how it makes sense considering his actions so far. I'm going to trust that unless any one says they're the hunter. You think this makes him the cobbler. Do his actions at the lynch yesterday look Cobblerish? Would a cobbler really fight that hard to stay alive and be that defensive throughout when a cobbler who doesn't know who the wolves are, basic purpose would be to die at some point?

Edit: crossed with wilwa. Me need sleepy too, I've exhausted this debate over the hunter role. Ideally, yeah we'd want to keep the hunter unknown, but I firmly believe with how things have played out in this situation, a known hunter (despite now giving up his greatest gift) is still a larger benefit to us today, and in the following days, than to the wolves. I'll say no more about the best uses of roles.

[wilwarin538]

Basically, from what I can tell, if we get it wrong today our best chance is for the Hunter to get chosen by the wolves tonight and take down a wolf. Any other scenario if we get it wrong toDay, will result in 3 wolves being around with 4 innocents (or 3 innocents and a cobbler) and that will make it easy for the wolves to control the lynch. I know that's me being pessimistic, but I just don't want to hand over our only gifted, considering the luck we've had so far.

But if I'm the only one that feels this way, and everyone else thinks that the real Hunter should come forward if Skip is lying, then maybe the Hunter should. And if the majority says they feel that way, and no one comes forward, then we can assume Skip is telling the truth. Until then, I'm very doubtful of his honesty.

Now I'm really going to bed.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But if I'm the only one that feels this way, and everyone else thinks that the real Hunter should come forward if Skip is lying, then maybe the Hunter should. And if the majority says they feel that way, and no one comes forward, then we can assume Skip is telling the truth. Until then, I'm very doubtful of his honesty.

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

It's not that she's not thinking clearly, skip. She just disagrees on what would be best for the village. It happens pretty often, and what's best one game might not be best another game - but most players keep their general Werewolfing...for lack of a better word, ideals during every game. Take our lovely co-moddess Agan for instance. Her views about the cobbler stay pretty much constant - and get her into trouble sometimes. But if she ever advocated another view on the cobbler, we'd all know something was up.