Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Gun

Nog doesn't naturally need to answer my question because I'm obviously just diverting his attention away from the wolves.)

Using my time answering your questions is actually doing just that - and the way you frame it isn't the best possible. But anyway. I try to keep this short - and I think there is some things of general interest in here as well.

What do you mean? That they'll try to make us concentrate on finding the BW rather than a wolf? (I am asking this because to me it would've seemed more logical to replace "our" with "their"

I have been wondering some ideas shared concerning this scenario. There is no way a wolf would just come forth and say: "hey guys, I actually know that X is the BW" - unless just getting lynched. But like I said, they'd consider turning our attention to the BW if they felt in trouble - not probably saying "let's talk about the BW for a change", but more like trying to bring that person into the center of discussion on baddies. I didn't understand that replacing "our" with "their", though...

Because you called someone who's not a wolf the cobbler, you can't be the seer?

If you are on the good side you wouldn't speculate on that kind of things - whoever the seer is.

There's something awfully off about Nog's seer rant (and him in general), and while it might be only because it was late/he was drunk , I'm currently toying with the idea that he's our Ferny. That would explain his excessive attack against me yesterday and now his worry about being considered the seer (which, to me, sounds much more like the cobbler's plea "Hey wolves I'm like seriously not the seer, don't eat me!" than the real seer trying to maintain his "dum dee dum I'm not the seer" facade. Just because it would be idiotic of the seer to attack a non-dreamed of person like that.)

You miss a few very reasonable scenarios here - including the correct one.

After all, she thwarted their first kill and is their worst rival for the title of the Lord of Night-Time Bree.

I can't see the wolves going seriously after her any time soon... I mean there is the chance she stuns the ranger or even better, the seer. Also as long as the BW is around we might waste our time talking about her and not the wolves - and as a byproduct some people might even give the wolves some nice hints about who the seer is etc.

It will get different nearer the end.

Let me make a prophecy. The second wolf going down will reveal the BW's name.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Using my time answering your questions is actually doing just that - and the way you frame it isn't the best possible.

Nog, you know, I really like it how you dismiss everything I say with, "She's just the cobbler and I reply to her only because I'm so noble although everybody can see I'm wasting my time!"

not probably saying "let's talk about the BW for a change", but more like trying to bring that person into the center of discussion on baddies. I didn't understand that replacing "our" with "their", though...

Okay that's reasonable. As for our/their, you had previously been talking about if the wolves thought they could get help from the BW, so I thought you meant if they faced trouble, they might try to get the BW onto their side (which would've had more to do with what you said before but wouldn't have made sense otherwise).

If you are on the good side you wouldn't speculate on that kind of things - whoever the seer is.

So pointing out flaws in your logic and that your talk about not being the seer looks like cobbler behaviour is evil?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Going through the thread in order...

Originally Posted by TEW

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.

I know TEW said they wouldn't be back, but the reasoning for this vote seems to me to be entirely fabricated, and leaving things open no matter which way Eomer flips should he be lynched.

Originally Posted by Inzil

What I don't understand is why you seemingly homed in on Nog without apparently looking at anyone else as a potential wolf-target.

Regarding that particular assumption, Nog is the first one who immediately jumped out at me, so of course I mentioned him first. Then you accused me of only concentrating on Nog, so I discussed him a little more, then moved on. Aren't you being a little jittery, Inzil?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her.

We've gone over this, Greenie, it doesn't.

Originally Posted by Volo

Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces.

My argument was not faulty! And I don't know if this is just a consequence of how long you've been away, Volo, but I don't care for some of the absolutes you've been making. Who are you to tell us what it's more likely for a wolf to do unless you yourself are a wolf?

Originally Posted by Volo

Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty.

Why is this?

Originally Posted by Form

I seem to recall having a no-Nightkill-Day-2 before, with the depressing sense that it's almost Day 1 replayed.

And I seem to recall being the person who orchestrated the no-Nightkill, and being irritated with you and your sentiment.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I don't know why you seem to think that Nog is the only possible person that could have looked Seerish,

If you could not put words into my mouth I'd appreciate it. Darling, I never said that.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

this is a good lead but we still don't have a lot of information and if we start making all these assumptions we could get very side tracked with this BW business instead of looking for the wolves.

This situation is much like a ranger-save. So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?

Originally Posted by Wilwa

so I say we let it be, put it on the list of info we have about the BW, and wait til we have more pieces.

Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'. Tis a wolvish sentiment, in truth!

Originally Posted by Inzil

But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me.

And again, accusing me for something you orchestrated strikes me as evil.

[quote=Not finding a useful interpretation of the voting record so I'll try the Shasta tactic of... Shasta tactic? Shastactic? Yes, I'll try the Shastactic of guessing who the wolves tried and failed to kill.[/quote]
Why, I'm honored! "Shasticle's Shastactic". Can that go into the glossary?

Originally Posted by Agan

She could have. Better get rid of a suspected seer (even if doing so implicates you - you can always argue it was a framing attempt) before they manage to cause any serious damage.

Good to know, darling.

Originally Posted by Agan

As long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they could have attacked. Did they target the seer or a player deemed dangerous, did they want to leave no trails, or did they want to frame someone? When either a wolf or the BW is gone, we can go through the posts and see if the dead wolf seemed to know more about some player/if any player seemed to know more about the dead BW. But before that, I think it's a waste of time to try to draw any conclusions from the fact that the wolves attacked the BW last night, and I don't like how intent Shasta is on doing it.

And I'll say again - ignoring any information, for whatever reason, is dangerous and the wolves love to see it happen.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you.

*throws a gaze at Shasta, Zil & Lottie especially*

*backspace backspace backspace* That's rather too catty to post on the Downs, so I won't do it. Nevermind.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Do you really consider impersonating the seer (which some of you seem to claim I did) is the way to keep the seer away? Honestly...

If you read the thread like you say you did, you wouldn't have ignored the counterargument that's already been made to this point by my love and I. The fact that you seem to have done exactly that bothers me muchly.

Originally Posted by Nog

If you are on the good side you wouldn't speculate on that kind of things - whoever the seer is.

I don't think Agan was speculating on who the Seer is, she was poking a hole in your argument.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If you could not put words into my mouth I'd appreciate it. Darling, I never said that.


This situation is much like a ranger-save. So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?


Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'. Tis a wolvish sentiment, in truth!

1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

[Loslote]

Heeey...I'm here...for a bit...turns out I have a dentist appointment before (and until a bit after) DL, so I'll have to vote soon.

I won't vote for Nog or Shasta, because I actually think they're both relatively innocent.

I won't vote for Eomer, because I want to give TB a chance to try and kill TBW, and I think he's the most likely candidate.

I won't vote for Vanilwuffin or Zil, because they feel somewhat genuine and I want to hold off on them.

I might vote for one of the quieter people. This mostly means Kath, Formy, and Elfie. Of the three, probably not Kath. Maaaybe Formy, but most likely Elfie.

I might vote for Pitchie because I suspected him yesterDay, but only if I get a chance to see him post toDay before I have to go.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nog is the first one who immediately jumped out at me, so of course I mentioned him first. Then you accused me of only concentrating on Nog, so I discussed him a little more, then moved on.

I'm not sure I agree with you. I can see why Nog jumped out at you, but Inzil had a point. It looked like you thought there was no other possibility but Nog, as if you just tried to paint him in a bad light, and while I think Nog looks fairly bad, I'm not sure he's the BW. I don't think the BW could afford to be so... careless.

Originally Posted by Shasta

And I don't know if this is just a consequence of how long you've been away, Volo, but I don't care for some of the absolutes you've been making.

Me neither. I know Volo tends to be a bit eccentric, but he really doesn't look too good in this game. Okay I admit the main thing I don't like about him is his suspicion of me because I don't think it's all that well reasoned, but still.

Originally Posted by Shasta

So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?

Give me half an hour and I can come up with reasons why any one of us could have been attacked. As long as we don't know who they are (or who the BW is), there's no use speculating. It leads nowhere and is a waste of time - and something a wolf or the cobbler would probably like us to do.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'.

We're not ignoring anything. We're simply waiting till we have access to the said information. What does it tell you about the wolves or the BW that they targeted her last night? That they wanted her dead. That's all. We still don't know why they wanted her dead, ie. we have no clue who she is or who the wolves are.

I am not overly fond of Shasta at the moment. I simply don't follow his reasoning - I don't think there's a way we can get any information about last night's kill before either a wolf or the BW is dead, and I don't like how he keeps pushing it (okay granted, people, myself included, have brought it up more than once, but still).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW.

This sounds better to me than trying to find the seer, but it still doesn't tell us anything about last night. However, I have nothing against lynching a quiet/non-substantial player today, just because not posting is unfair to everybody: to the village if you're a baddie, to the wolves if you're a gifted.

Originally Posted by Kath

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy

Miss, you'll pay for this!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Re: Wilwa - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your feelings or anything. I'm just overly fond of the rolleyes smiley. I wasn't trying to be mean, and if I came off that way I apologize.

Re: Agan - "Not overly fond"? That cuts me to the quick, it really does. However, coming from someone who goes from agreeing with me re: Volo to going after me for a reason I've explained multiple times, it doesn't cut as much as it normally would.

[Kath]

Miss, you'll pay for this!

Moi?!

Right, I'm going to wander through Day 2 now, have a look at what's been going on.

Ooh one thing though. There was some argument between Agan and .... someone. I want to say Nerwen but I can't remember. It was about not knowing the rules and that being a really guilty thing to do. Just wanted to put it out there that I disagree. These games with experimental roles are complicated. If even Boro is altering/clarifying the rules still then I don't think not being totally certain on them counts as particular grounds for suspicion. This might have been laid to rest already but I just suddenly remembered it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it.

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well?

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it.

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well?

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'!

I'm really glad there weren't more than 3 points, cause one more eye roll could very well make me snap.

I....don't feel like arguing with you, because I don't like your tone and I think my tone probably wouldn't be much better, so I'm going to stop. We disagree, it happens, whatever, I'm going to move on now.

So, I'm going to skim through the day again, and try to come up with an actual suspect. But I think I'm agreeing with the people who are leaning towards quiet ones, there are a lot of them, and I have this feeling that alot of the loud ones right now, the ones that are arguing with each other and all suspicious of each other, are mostly innocents while the baddies are chilling back going unnoticed.

x'ed with Shasta

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The first interest of the BW is to not get lynched as only the village can out her. So she can't afford being dreamt of and should then take as low profile as possible in regards the seer; she needs to stay alive to the very end, remember? Do you really consider impersonating the seer (which some of you seem to claim I did) is the way to keep the seer away? Honestly...

The second interest of the BW is to have a maximum number of kills happening (due to her hard victory-conditions), so what is the sense of trying to impersonate the seer with the risk of getting it right and thus calling the wolves to meet her during the Night to no kill being made?

.....

And anyway, if (and when) Aganzir is a cobbler, the wolves wouldn't know it to be true as they don't know who the cobbler is.

So I agree with the first two parts quite a bit. There is no logical reason for the BW to pretend to be the Seer, it's silly, and so if the Wolves chose someone who they felt looked liked a Seer then whatever hints they saw were likely not something the BW meant to do (meaning he probably just said he found someone suspicious, and that person happened to be a wolf; he was not in fact trying to pretend to be the Seer). But all that is assuming they were going for the Seer, which considering how many low key people there were yesterDay, I'm thinking is not as likely as a no-trail kill. And being quiet and under the radar is a much smarter tactic for the BW. Conclusion: they likely went for someone quiet yesterDay, and therefore the BW is someone who was quiet yesterDay.

Overall I feel fairly good about Nog, except the way he is so convinced that Agan is the Cobbler, it's just fishy.

Shasta I'm fairly uneasy about, he comes in with his two Assumptions, the first being that the wolves went for the Seer, and then seems to think that Nog is the only possible option for that. Plus his case had a lot of holes in it, and the way he jumped on Inzil for 'defending Nog' was weird, since I don't feel as though Inzil was really defending him, he was more just disagreeing with Shasta's assumptions.

Also Volo, this:

Originally Posted by Volo

This is a game where certain knowledge is rare. Post-mortem role revelations and the dreams of a dead Seer are of such quality, but not much else. However players are making accusations based on little hunches, glimpses and clues, which are not definite. The BW also plays by these rules, being quite similar to an Ordo. However, xe can stun, which affects xer way of looking at players' roles. The knowledge of someone being stunned will certainly affect the way the BW looks upon xer victim next Day and might notice things others wouldn't necessarily notice. By "mildly eductated hunches" I meant a wider perspective than that of an ordo's.Related to this was my comment of not angering the BW, which has also been understood in a way I didn't mean it. Based on basic WW psychology I see the following scenario very likely: The BW is suspected for one reason or the other and is very likely or certainly going to be lynched. Xer reaction to this is, probably, wanting revenge to those who caused xer demise, who, in the case of a lynch, are the Innocents (the lynch being the Innocents' way of killing). Xe can revenge by making the game more favourable to the enemies of xer enemies, the Wolves. And this is done by the BW telling on the game thread who xe thinks are the Gifteds - something a Cobbler would do in the similar situation. All in all this is a minor point explained in a long way and this discussion should perhaps be forgotten in favour of using up time for the real game, instead of meta.

Because, I still don't understand how on earth the BW ends up with any more knowledge then the rest of us. I also don't understand why you think they would reveal any of this 'knowledge' or why it would even make any difference. Let's say the Ranger is about to be lynched and at the last minute decides to announce who their picks were every Night, this would provide absolutely nothing for us (unless they had managed to make a save at some point). All we would have is an innocent's list of people they trusted enough to protect, which really doesn't include any special knowledge. It's the same here, the names the BW would be revealing would really just be a list of people they thought might have powers to threaten them, but that doesn't include any special knowledge, so the wolves would have no real reason to go with it. I just don't understand why you seem to think the BW has all this inside info that could harm us. Anyway...

So I need to get back to writing my rediculous history assignment and I should be back soonish to decide who I actually suspect (right now there are some I'm uncomfortable with and the rest I have no opinnion about, so I want to correct that, I need more suspects).

x'ed with Shasta

[Pitchwife]

Just got home after a very busy day, reading now.

[Nogrod]

Back again then... so what should we do? Most of the Day has been spent and I'm not too sure it has been too fruitful.

Well, I have a suggestion.

I just checked some of the voting times from yesterDay and saw that Pitchie's vote for Glirdy was a crosspost with Kath's vote making wilwa lead the tally, so I'm a bit less suspicious of it now and am thinking I might have seeing ghosts there.

There were basically three wagons there yesterDay but without any added knowledge it's hard to say which were the malicious and which the innocent wagonings.



Anyway. Just looking at the discussion - and willing to prevent any more seer-speculation as to the target of last Night's kill, I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW.


Why I think so is that...

a) The BW needs to stay low so the chances of getting her are probably better from among the quieter ones - but also, and even more importantly: I'd bet a lot we have at least one - if not two -wolves who take the quiet approach as well.

b) It seems a lot of people are just hanging around without doing much anything and avoiding any discussions while those more into playing the game suspect each others. And you all know how the lurking baddies are the most dangerous in the end.

c) With the misfired kill last Night we could "afford" to try one of the more ambiguos ones. We all know that later we just won't bring ourselves to do it - and the submarine-wolf has good chances of winning.

d) Making this kind of move some of the more quieter players would feel a need to talk up (which we'd dearly need) - or the mates of possible lynch candidates would need to step forwards (which would be great later)... So that would be good indeed.

[Nogrod]

A correction to the last post of mine... before the everlasting discussion begins once again.

I have used the word "quiet" - but I have also used the words "submarine", "no-trace" and "ambiguos".

I'm not suggesting we take a post count and start from the bottom, but looking at people who are careful enough not to disturb anything or anyone - and who wish to stay in the back not rubbing anyone the wrong way as to awaken their interest or bad will... Or if we had time to look at it more carefully... who only suspect the kinds of "safe targets" everyone (many enough) suspect and just parrot the suspicions of those others.

[Kath]

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do!

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument!

Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

*waves back from his bright white hovercraft*

Just peeked in to see if anything's going on here... It is interesting to go through the thread D1 and to see how careful everyone is back there. Back with some results after I've gone through it.

[Loslote]

Right, well, I've got to vote and run, so...

++Elfie

Because he's been really quiet, and what he has posted has looked really off (such as his vote post toDay) and because I don't want to vote Pitchie without giving him a chance to post.

Good luck...

[Pitchwife]

Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler, so Shasta's little theory about Nog as a supposed Seer-cum-Wight isn't that shaky as I first thought in this respect. However, Nog has a very good point that impersonating the Seer wouldn't be a brilliant survival strategy for Barry.
One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

On TEW's vote - I would very much like to see a lot more reasoning from him, but I've got a notion where he's coming from, i.e. Eomer's behaviour could remind him of the game when the three of us were packmates together, as it did me. Or he could be have got that idea from me and use it as an excuse. Post some more, man!
On Eomer himself, I'm withholding judgement for now till I see whether he's going to be more involved and making some sense.

Still don't think Agan looks blatantly evil in any way, like Nog for saying we should stop to speculate about the Seer and give the wolves ideas, like Volo better toDay, like wilwa a lot and don't at all get where all the votes against her were coming from; dislike Form's "maybe-I-can-be-bothered-maybe-not" attitude, have to look closer at everybody else.

Lottie, if you're still around: does or doesn't the change in the rules re Barry's endgame killing power affect your opinion that we shouldn't 'waste' a lynch on them in any way ?

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

One thing I find quite interesting about that theory is that it bypassingly implicates myself, Greenie, wilwa and Agan as possible wolves - in other words, everybody who got Glirdy Goatleaf lynched except himself and Inzil. Now I wonder whether this couldn't be a conceivable reaction from a wolf who's secretly kicking himself for lynching his cobbler, to take it out on the other contributors?

1. Agan, Greenie, Wilwa, and yourself are the four people Nog mentioned that he found suspicious in that post I quoted, which is why I mentioned you in my theory.

2. It's already been pointed out that Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of this theory, which casts doubt on the rest of you being wolvish as well (in the context of this theory).

3. In the context of your theory, I've been going after Inzil all Day... why on earth would I pass up yet another chance to do so?

(Sidenote - I've tried typing up this post three times, and each time the internet has inexplicably closed... I think I beat it this time though! )