Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Shasta:
1. Yes, I got that.
2. Actually, the unlikeliness that Agan is a wolf, based on your theory, doesn't mean the rest of us can't be. Just saying.
3. I had the impression that you were going more after Nog than after Zil, but yes, that makes sense, thanks.

(x-ed with wilwa and Agan)

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

[Nogrod]

Greenie called me a minute ago.

She can't get her laptop to connect to the internet and as she has not been able to read what has been discussed about for the last few hours she said she would not vote.


On another note, I'm almost done with my re-read and I think I have to adjust / add to some of my previous thoughts...

[Formendacil]

Well... I'm here and reading, and while I am utterly disinclined to do so, I feel guilty about not posting so... I'm posting. Pitch has unflatteringly, but dead-accurately described me as "maybe I can be bothered, maybe not," and to be 100% honest, I'm more wrapped up in my paper at the moment than in catching wolves.

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me. I believe I have been obliqued accused of being somewhat callous already... let me dig up the quote...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You're upset no-one got killed in the Night? Really?

Okay, maybe I exaggerate to say "callous," but it's a nice, hard-boiled accusation that would fit with Pitch's description of me. And, let's be clear: I am a bit callous here. We would have more to go on if we had a cold, dead wolf-kill. At Night 2 in the game, it's arguably more valuable for the village to lose an ordo and gain some concrete evidence than to go kill-less. Obviously, this will vary depending on the situation--for example, in the case of a Ranger-save, at least the Ranger knows who one innocent is, and can do some digging accordingly... but the only people in THIS situation who now know more than they did yesterDay are the BW and the Wolves... none of whom are on the village's side.

Heh--look at that! I'm all worked up now. A good, rousing reply in the next half hour or so might even spur me to more action.

Maybe.

[Nogrod]

I went through D1 to see what people were doing in the light of bantering (b), talking about game-mechanics (m), suspecting (s), making suspicions via banter (bs) defending (d), self-defending (sd), finding someone odd (o), explaining (e), being neutral (n)... (neutral suspicion and neutral defence are also marked - as (ns) and (nd) - you know that "maybe or maybe not"...)

NB. Producing tallies or saying "I'm around" are interpreted as mechanics-talk (m)

NB.2. A number after an s (suspect) or a d (defend) means how many people it concerns. The letter only means the person is suspecting/defending one person only.


My perspective on this was and is that the wolves would not like to spread suspicion around as that would lead to bad feelings and thus a heightened possibility of getting lynched while the goodies would try to find anything that is suspicious and bring that forwards. On the same logic, the wolves would like to rub people the right way while the ordo's should care less of it.

There are different conceptions of this to be sure.

Also remember that those symbols are for general interpretation: a d (for "defending someone" is just speaking good of someone, not everytime saying "s/hes not bad!") etc.


As an example:

Glirdy-cobbler: m m m/sd

That means he made two posts talking of the game.mechanics (m & m) and then one talking about the game mechanics and making a self-defence (m/sd).


So here's first whom I think were the least "productive" on D1 (D1, mind you... it's not the same toDay with all of these people)

Okay? (in brackets a comment on the vote that person made)


Eomer: b bs bs (too talkative)

Sally: b b m m m (meta: quite a wishy-washy vote)

Nerwen: m m b/m m (no vote?)

The Elf-Warrior: b b m m m (someone found a Freudian slip)

Form: b b d/s2 (meta: the odd choosing the more fun from more useful)

Kath: b/bd b m ns3 (wilwa not particularly guilt-ridden)


Okay more to come... just a short break to read - and to have a cigarette...

[Nogrod]

A quick interlude - looking at the clock I see I might not be able to produce the table in its entirety anyway.

After re-reading D1 I will not vote for Greenie (especially regarding the fact she can't be around toDay anymore).

Even if I still think Aganzir is the cobbler (sorry for my insistence, but I have my reasons), I would not like to vote her either toDay. She seems to be the powerhouse of suspecting people (after me, of course, or well, with me... ) so I think she's good to have around to notice things we might ignore. (Although I must say she was quick to defend a host of people as well, like the baddies wish to do to rub them the right way).


EDIT: X'd with A Gun

[Aganzir]

*shoots Nog*

[wilwarin538]

Some thoughts on a few things.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

I'm confused as to why entertaining is a better trait then useful.

Originally Posted by Kath

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA

This is silly. I gave a great reason (that his vote was unnecessarily random, and that he seemed very jumpy and all over the place, and mentioned some crazy thing about Cobblers that made no sense, I even stated that it made him look like a cobbler...and was clearly spot on).

I have this strange fear that Form, Kath and Eomer are wolves together, and they are all being quiet and distant and pretending to want to kill each other, just cause they know how awesome they are and that we won't want to kill them right away.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That's just plain weird, coming from a veteran like Nogrod, who knows perfectly well that there's a long history of other roles impersonating the Seer. He's arguing for the improbability of something that happens all the time. (Yes, I know Shasta has already drawn attention to this, but really, I think it needs more.)

Must have missed this earlier. He was not saying that it's improbable for anyone to pretend to be the Seer, he's saying it's improbable for the BW to pretend to be the Seer, since the Seer would then check them out and reveal them, or the Wolves would try and kill him and figure him out.

Originally Posted by Volo

Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty.

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned this part yet, but I don't understand how killing Nog would be unsporty.


So at this moment I don't like Form, Eomer or Kath, because they have odd reasons for voting people and they seem very blaze about everything. I'm tempted to just let them be for a while, but I would kinda also like to see one of them go (Form foremost, then Eomer, then Kath, since she just posted quite a bit).

Volo....uhm, I don't like his logic. He just doesn't make sense to me, and seems to post really long things that don't really say anything helpful, and I think a few people have brought up things he's said that didn't make sense, and I don't remember seeing him explain too many of them. I would be willing to vote him.

I'm tempted to vote Shasta, but I think right now it's just a case of me not agreeing with him, so I probably won't. I feel very good about Inzil and Lottie, and fairly good about Pitch, Agan and Noggins. Neutral about everyone else.

Wow...that's so lame. I really thought I was more suspicious of people then that.

x'ed since Form....really? *sigh*

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen about Nog replying to Shasta

That's just plain weird, coming from a veteran like Nogrod, who knows perfectly well that there's a long history of other roles impersonating the Seer. He's arguing for the improbability of something that happens all the time. (Yes, I know Shasta has already drawn attention to this, but really, I think it needs more.)

No, Nog makes perfect sense here. Impersonating the Seer is usually a quick way to die. Innocents do it in order to be killed instead of the real Seer. But somebody whose winning condition is to be the sole survivor? Not a chance in hell IMO.
Shasta used the same argument, which is just completely wrong. Now this makes me really wonder about the two of you...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

No, Nog makes perfect sense here. Impersonating the Seer is usually a quick way to die. Innocents do it in order to be killed instead of the real Seer. But somebody whose winning condition is to be the sole survivor? Not a chance in hell IMO.
Shasta used the same argument, which is just completely wrong. Now this makes me really wonder about the two of you...

Exactly. Nice to see someone at last understands what I'm saying...

Compare to this...

Originally Posted by Kath

Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this.

[Nogrod]

A tally, anyone? I'm off for a cigarette to gather my thoughts.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Agan

I'd prefer to vote for Nog, Volo or sally (I suspect Nog the most, but Volo and sally are quieter), but I could also go for someone in my Either category (not Inzil though before I've had a look at him, and I don't want to vote for Nerwen or Shasta either).

You don't want to vote for my dear one or I, and yet you find us both guilty? How interesting.

Re - Inzil: I didn't have... oh, what's the use. I'm not arguing this with you any more.

Originally Posted by Kath

Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post.

Kath, have I told you lately that I love you?

Originally Posted by Pitch

No, Nog makes perfect sense here. Impersonating the Seer is usually a quick way to die. Innocents do it in order to be killed instead of the real Seer. But somebody whose winning condition is to be the sole survivor? Not a chance in hell IMO.

Yes, they do, but in the BW's case, they (obviously) cannot be killed by the wolves, so there's no real danger there, is there?

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.

Iwasn'tfocusingontheSeerIwasmakinganassumptionthat hasbeenblownentirelyoutofproportion... bah, you know what, forget it, rehashing the same argument over and over and over is getting redundantly stupid. Moving on.

Originally Posted by Nog

(his insistence on the theory of me being the BW which is ridiculous but he can't admit he's wrong - he says his "theory" still holds when it doesn't)

Nerwen, Kath, and Pitch all seem to not think it's entirely 'ridiculous'. So...

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave.

She's absolutely right. Form, really...?

[Pitchwife]

Ah, a post by Kath, a list, and even a vote! I'm impressed (and not offended btw). As for the vote, I could even get behind that.
And a post and a vote from Form, with actually some few opinions. Wow. As for the vote, I strongly disagree.

DL soon, right? And I'm feeling fine, in doubt or flipflopping about most of the more vocal players. Garrrh.

I think I'll go with
++Eomer

He hasn't come back and delivered the more reasoned vote he promised us, and it looks like he's not going to, and he could well be a quiet wolf or Wight, and I'd rather be able to stop wondering what the heck he's up to.

PS. - Shasta, your reply to me re Nog - you're right there, I'll have to think this over again.

[Nogrod]

So a few quickly now... and then some comments.

Inzil: b b/m b b b m m m m d/s d2/ns2 d/s (for Glirdan's random vote)

Lottie: b b sd/m m m sd/d3/ns2 m s/d d (to keep Glirdy alive)

Volo: b/m m b m m s2 s ns ("Won't. Vote. Randomly. So. Die. Please.")


The rest I think earn their game.


NB.

Pitchie defends a lot of people and suspects only selected few - it makes me worried still, but he seems to talk and argue... which is the point of the game anyway.

Wilwa is very much careful - actually not suspecting anyone (except Glirdy-cobbler who voted for her) on D1 but defending two people.

Keep in mind my hunches from yesterDay and toDay here on the later Days. But for now I think it's futile to try and lynch someone who could be of a great help if innocent.


Oh, Shasta... I'm wondering why it is okay to say I'm aggressive but none says it of him...

Hard to say about him... At times he looks pretty bad, but when there is this beginning wagon against him I feel like defending him. My feelings would say more guilty than not, I'm not sure about my reason... there are arguments for (his insistence on the theory of me being the BW which is ridiculous but he can't admit he's wrong - he says his "theory" still holds when it doesn't) and against (he stands up against what looks like the majority view which is easily led by ipressive talkers, and he suspects people like a good ordo should).


EDIT: X'd from my death scene, Agan shooting me...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nog was who I began my assumptive theory on, and then Inzil started defending him (rather rabidly in my opinion). This combined with the point I made against Inzil (and Agan, actually) yesterDay means he's currently my top suspect.

Once again, my purpose was not so much to "defend Nog", but to try to get you away from your tunnel vision. If you want to vote for Nog because you're convinced he's the BW, have at it.

Not sure who I'll vote for yet. I could possibly go for Eomer or Volo, but I'd like to see more of both first.

x/d with Volo himself