WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

I guess I will just leave now - I am actually feeling quite tired and sleepy; I would like to look at and consider why Lommy and Val have been targeted. I am not really in the mood right now, though, I will do it in the morning - I am sure meanwhile somebody else will look at it too, but still. In any case, it will be also interesting to read what other people think.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Zil

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills.

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

Originally Posted by Rikae

...but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

Also, Legate

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

May I ask you to clarify this point about Greenie not wanting to vote Oz or Kath?

Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

I don't mean "helpful" in the sense of actually actively doing things to help, although, of course, the louder people tend to do more of that as well, but "helpful" because we actually have something to go on. As you said, quiet people leave a greater possibility for judgment error. If I'm going to be left alive as one of three on the last Day (as seems to happen to me a lot, but I mean this in the case of anyone), I don't want to be left with two quiet players to choose between! I want plenty of evidence through which to sift, and we're all better off on any day when we have that.

If' you're going to start "TLDNR"ing, we might as well just quit. It defeats the whole purpose of WW.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Initially, I was waiting around to see if I would get any more votes, and vote to save myself accordingly. The "Legate 180" referred to my sudden opinion change.

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.

My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."

If I were a Pitchwolf, I'd back off Nessa now, too, if she were innocent.

Edit: X'd with Zil.

[Rikae]

I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:

Originally Posted by Nessa

But, Lottie, I don't understand. It just seems like a convenient bandwagon.

*shrug* I don't really see it. It makes sense for a wolf to proclaim the innocence of an ordo about to be lynched. Now, if she was aware that her fate was in Inzil's hands, that would be extremely selfless, weirdly so even for an innocent, but if I recall correctly, there were a few non-voters.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

As a matter of fact, it's in the official glossary.

Originally Posted by Rikae

My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."

Which is how I saw it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:


*shrug* I don't really see it. It makes sense for a wolf to proclaim the innocence of an ordo about to be lynched. Now, if she was aware that her fate was in Inzil's hands, that would be extremely selfless, weirdly so even for an innocent, but if I recall correctly, there were a few non-voters.

Well, I don't claim that it was a smart move on my part.

[Macalaure]

Lommy was after Inzil quite a bit, but I don't think in a way that looks seerish. Other than that, her suspicions are rather wide-spread (#272). Nessa, Skip, e_d, and Wilwa are her other main suspects, quite a few of which gathered votes yesterDay. Unless Lommy was very correct and the wolves wanted her out of the way, I think this points the other way: we were completely off and the wolves wanted us to remain off. Lommy will later back off Nessa slightly.

There were a few people who were starting to suspect Valier, so this kill is interesting. Valier thinks the wolves might be framing Inzil and later she starts suspecting Skip. In her list, she suspects Pitch, Inzil, Boro, Legate to varying degrees. Prime suspect is Skip, who she votes. I don't think her suspicion of Skip seems seer-ish either. There aren't any very strong cases except Skip, so a kill with the idea of leaving only one wrong trail seems possible.

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

Both also suspected Inzil. Either the wolves really enjoy torturing Inzil, or Inzil is one heck of a cocky wolf, or the wolves identified Inzil as the cobbler and are putting him to work accordingly.

Of course, it's highly unlikely that there wasn't a wolf or two in Lommy's and Valier's rather long lists of suspects, but I can't tell who it might have been.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

Unless Skip feared he has been dreamed of, and with double the chances of killing the seer, went for two people who suspected him.

More on that.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

More or less, yes.

I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right.

Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up.

But yes, I'd say it means changing your view on some issue to the opposite nowadays...

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't mean "helpful" in the sense of actually actively doing things to help, although, of course, the louder people tend to do more of that as well, but "helpful" because we actually have something to go on...If I'm going to be left alive as one of three on the last Day (as seems to happen to me a lot, but I mean this in the case of anyone), I don't want to be left with two quiet players to choose between! I want plenty of evidence through which to sift, and we're all better off on any day when we have that.

Point noted.

Now, i'm off to sleep before work tomorrow.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

But after a few Days have passed, and more substantial information is appearing...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.

This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

I'm a decent player, but I don't actually have the ability to control the whole village. That conversation about/suspicion of Pitch was just what had me placing him in a slightly more innocent category (looked like wolves were after him).

Originally Posted by Nessa

This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.

You know, on the one hand, it looks like something no wolf would dare say. And, on the other hand, it looks like something a wolf would say, knowing no wolf would be expected to dare.

[Rikae]

You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well.

Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it!

There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean...

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well.

Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it!

There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean...

Perhaps everyone has weekendy things to attend to? I myself am more able to post, precisely because it is the weekend.

Goatees are only incriminating on females, not so sure about Mac.

[Rikae]

Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!

Or everyone went to Medieval Times without us.

Ouch. That hurt just to think about. Everyone meeting knights without me?

Originally Posted by Cailín

When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

The Night kills have all been very strangely-placed; everyone is either no-trace, tied to someone with a high profile case going on, or overtly conspicuous.

[Cailín]

Just some quick notes because the hour is late here and I should go to sleep.

I am sorry Lommy was killed. I had her down as an innocent from Day 1, and I know most people trusted her. I'll have a look at her posts but think she was a target simply because of that.

Valier however... I think the wolves might have seen a potential Seer in her. She's always been very good at uncovering wolves and her suspicion of Skip was random enough (as in, she did not give any empirical evidence or analysis and she was the only one really singling him out as a wolf). I don't think we should disregard that - even if she did not dream of him, I would not ignore InnocentValier's suspicions. Definitely will be looking at Skip toDay.

Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills.

As if. When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

[Macalaure]

I need to clear my head about him.

Pitchwife

Day 1

#15

Well, the wolves obviously know more than we do, but the cobbler not so much, as of now - so xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.

Hint to the cobbler?

Yep, the double Night-Kill sucks for us, and getting rid of it is imperative. I'm not sure if I'd like to risk the Seer for it - as long as the Ranger is still alive, maybe it's worth it.

Very carefully pushing the idea that the seer should reveal after the first dreamt wolf.

#22 - defends Cailín's early vote.

#27 - asks Sally and Rikae regarding their suspicion, understandably.

Early Day1 in general - much role/rule talk, but a few actual points, so that's good - his tone is oddly relaxed though, but maybe that's just him. He looks pretty well for the rest of the day until voting time

He clears his mind in #110, but then the next few posts are just chat, like he's killing time for an opportune moment to cast the vote. (1h time between #110 and his vote in #132, with a few meaningless posts in between.) Usually an innocent would use the time to make up their mind some more.

His vote makes sense considering what he said before (with me and e_d in the running other than Nessa), but why the unproductive waiting period?


Day 2

Starts out using Ozban's death to go after Nessa more (all of #183). This looks like it could have been planned. His second post is about Kath, but he finds nothing of note. Goes after Inzil a bit.

#189 implies that he thinks the Sally-waggon was innocently fueled, which is odd, since it overtook the waggon he himself fueled. It's uncommon to clear an opposing bandwaggon of suspicion, especially without much reasons. Attempt not to ruffle innocent feathers?

#262 - his q&a for me looks innocent.

#275

I still don't think Zil looks particularly wolvish (and I think suspecting him because his first post was made too quickly is rather flimsy)

This might be nitpicky, but I don't like the "still" here. I understand why one might step away from Inzil based on flimsy reasons, but he sounds defensive here, without any reason.

Inzil was the only person other than Nessa he brought forth any reasons against. This fits with the "not ruffling innocent feathers". He predictably votes for Nessa again.


Day 3

#333 today he backs away from Nessa and instead goes after Inzil again. Not much variation.


I can't condemn him - there are too many stretches where he looks rather innocent. However, I think there are some points which paint a dark picture.