WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Same goes for Inzil, as I mentioned.

The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.

Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

Also, Legate

May I ask you to clarify this point about Greenie not wanting to vote Oz or Kath?

Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..

Okay, since I am answering your question, first a comment also to the first part - of course I am not putting all the quiet ones into the same cathegory, and I in fact usually don't make such generalising suspicions, but this was just a thought: and for this time, of all, it would make sense. Because of the awkward kills, indeed. So I am actually considering such possibility, or at least, thinking that the "quiet" ones might be the key. Anything is possible.

And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right.

Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up.

Indeed, drastic consequences; just to clarify it, I was innocent and ended up lynched after being accused of unexplainably changing my opinions.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

I agree with that. I am really wondering what kind of Wolves we have. What makes the most sense would be WWs who are quite logical and are trying to lead us away by planting fake baits (Nessa, Zil...) in front of us: but in that case, who would that be?

This is most puzzling, as basically most my suspects turn somewhat less likely to be actually Wolves. Skip would now make a lot less sense. There is still Rikae or Boro. I am just... puzzled.

And for that matter, I would really most likely drop Zil for toDay. Let's also not forget what he himself had said, that he was the likely target for a Seer dream after what he has done. Maybe we should not worry about that.

Originally Posted by Cailín

As if. When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

Well, haven't played with you much, so I cannot say how would you kill, but in any case, you haven't been playing recently, which means that you would not probably make any difference between killing Ozban was here just in his second game and others who haven't likely been around when you have last played (quite several people, I'd imagine).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.

Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.

But in general, I agree with the preceding statement - that is, it indeed condemns both of them, and it would mean at most one more Day of life - unless they indeed counted it being so obvious that we would not dare to count it as a Wolf-save. A true double-bluff.

[A Little Green]

Inzil looks bad. I don't know if the wolves would really take so much pains to frame a single innocent. To state the obvious, he is either

a) a misguided innocent who honestly made a mistake at the end of yesterDay. Possible, I suppose. However, the timing of his vote is as last minute as can be, it looks calculated. The resigned attitude toDay doesn't look innocent to me, either. We need to catch a wolf, and if he is innocent he should speak out for himself so we don't make the wrong choice.

b) a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered. It would have been a pretty extreme move for a wolf though, since in saving one wolf he would have two of them highly suspected the next Day. Is the two kills per Night advantage that important to them? Or do we have an insanely bold pack who decided to sacrifice half of them to cause havoc and let the other half slip by unnoticed? No, it wouldn't make sense unless Inzil believed himself already seer-dreamed, but the Night's kills speak against that - neither Valier nor Lommy seemed like Seers who had dreamed Inzilwolf. Or was he just otherwise certain he and Nessa were going to be suspected the next Day anyway?

c) a cobbler. This is actually beginning to look like the most sensible option to me. A cobbler would be ready to make a drastic move to save a believed wolf from the gallows - or even, come to think of it, an innocent, thus misleading the village royally. His "kill me if you like, but you're wasting your time" -attitude looks quite cobblerish, too. If I have the time I might go through Inzil's early posts to see if there is anything resembling a cobbler hint. His previous behaviour struck me more wolvish than cobblerish though.

Gah. Enough about Inzil, there are sixteen other people to look at. Well, fifteen. For example, I haven't seen any talk at all about the Lottie-wagon. What, exactly, were the arguments for lynching her?

Originally Posted by Legate

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

I'm not fond of Legate's tone here. The first paragraph is pessimistic, which is doubtlessly how the wolves want us to feel. The second is the classic wishy-washy Legate, he pretty much says that everyone could be a wolf actually, without being definite about anyone. And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!


EDIT: ouch, x-ed with Legate's novel!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it.

I'm not sure how relevant this is but there's a point I want to make. For the first thing, yes, a wolf-me probably wouldn't have killed Ozzy that early since it was only his second game and he plays rather seldom, unless of course I suspected him to be the Seer. As for Kath though, I love her, but regardless of my role I don't make choices in WW based on who are my friends in RL. I don't think that's fair. (It's the same thing as why I get annoyed if people use reasons like "I like him/her, therefore I won't vote them" even early in the game. It's wolves we're hunting, not people who aren't our special friends.) Sorry, out of proportion rant. This is just a topic I feel rather strongly about.

[A Little Green]

I will probably have to vote really early toDay, maybe something like three or four hours from now. I might be back before DL but since I can't be sure I rather vote early to be on the safe side. I can then use my retraction if I return in time and if I consider it necessary. I'd like to have a look at Eomer, Elra, Wilwa and Cailín at least, I'm not sure if I have time for all of that. They are not necessarily submarines, but they are people I have no opinion of, and people that are not really talked about much.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back with some general thoughts...

This far, as I said, I'd be suspicious of Rikae, but be it not for her retraction yesterDay. Since Lottie is innocent, it is somewhat hard to imagine Wolf to retract like this.

I went through Greenie's posts now too and they also look more innocent-ish to me than not.

I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay. But that means LRH (whose vote yesterDay was rather suspiciously placed, at least, and question is about the first Day, as we don't know about Pitch's guilt or innocence) BG, possibly Mänwe (though I am careful about suspecting him too easily, after the last fiasco I remember from when playing with him, it was all too easy to lynch him). I am going to focus on them a bit.

I also should try to take once again a new, "from-scratch", objective look at Nessa...

I don't want to lynch Zil just now. Only if I don't come up with anything better.

Also wondering if I should start looking at Shasta more closely. He's been slipping under my radar quite interestingly enough.

Will be around or back later...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Unless Skip feared he has been dreamed of, and with double the chances of killing the seer, went for two people who suspected him.

But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.

Originally Posted by Legate

I agree with that. I am really wondering what kind of Wolves we have. What makes the most sense would be WWs who are quite logical and are trying to lead us away by planting fake baits (Nessa, Zil...) in front of us: but in that case, who would that be?

Maybe we need to be logical as well.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay.

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?