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#1 | ||||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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EDIT: x-ed with Legate
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#2 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#3 | ||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course
![]() Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case. I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see: Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following): Quote:
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Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac): Quote:
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Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now. For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone. What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it. What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#4 |
Laconic Loreman
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Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.
I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me. Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily. I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.
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Fenris Penguin
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#5 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Boro, if you think Nessawolf bought your cobbler show, do you have some quote on that?
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#6 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Joined together wrote our names upon the page Seven times alliance our loyalties we gave |
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#7 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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EDIT: Crossed with Boro
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Joined together wrote our names upon the page Seven times alliance our loyalties we gave |
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#8 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.
OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae? So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him. I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted. My list The ones I think are our wolves: Skip Wilwa Macalaure Manwe The ones I think could be our wolves: Nessa Boro Greenie Innocents: Aganzir Rikae Legate |
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#9 | ||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say. Anyway, off to lunch, will be back still in a while.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#10 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#11 |
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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quick comment.
I must say, the moment I saw that Boro wasn't the cobbler I immediately thought: surely he is a wolf then!
Now I'm not as sure - I can see other possibilities - but I'm still quite certain. A wolf pretending to be the cobbler makes perfect sense whereas the other alternatives are quite far-fetched. That said, I fully intend to vote Mänwe toDay. The combined evidence of Shasta's sudden red alert and the fact that the wolves night-killed him is the nail in the coffin for me. It would be foolish to ignore that. In fact: ++Mänwe By the way, isn't it ironic that Mänwe's only contribution (that I remember) was a call-out for more suspicion for the quiet, low-key players? ![]() EDIT: x'ed with the Män himself
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#12 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Will no one accept my making things worse for myself as a sign I am innocent?
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
- (Letter #124 To Sir Stanley Unwin) |
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#13 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Because if he put only one person into his "red" box, it would be clear to the WWs that he is the Seer, especially if Mänwe is one of them. Shasta obviously wanted to stay hidden still. Of course, it was not much more subtle (from the WWs' perspective) to go after Mänwe in such way, but he did also another analysis of Cailín and made all these "announcements" that he is going to look at this one and that one toDay in his beginning post of the Day. And when Mänwe was not lynched normally, he perhaps hoped for not being discovered (since the idea was dismissed) while at the same time leaving a clear enough clue in case he died. Or this is the way I could imagine it.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories Last edited by Legate of Amon Lanc; 01-12-2011 at 07:29 AM. Reason: x-ed with Nessa |
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#14 | |||||||
Laconic Loreman
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Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages. So his dreams are there somewhere.
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It's possible Rikae was, since she's separated from Mac, Kit, and Agan, but what he says looks pretty inconclusive. Also, he seems more commentating on what's been happening to Pitch being heavily suspected, and not pointing to who he dreamed of Post 76. Quote:
Shasta votes Lottie, Day 1. I think it's clear enough that for his first dream, Shasta did not know any wolves, and had not dreamed of Pitch as the cobbler. From the looks, possibly Rikae or Agan, who he remained positive about throughout the day. His feeling good about Mac, Kit, and Legate up to this point, looks based off how they were posting and agreeing with what they were saying. Day 2. Post 234. It's long, and commenting towards a lot of people. I won't quote it but, it confirms he's trusting Rikae, and he's starting to find Legate suspicious. (It then makes sense, and fits in line that he would dream of Legate asap) Post 252. It doesn't seem like Shasta had a wolf at this point either. He "feels no-nonsense bad" about Legate, but that's purely on Legate's posting. Quote:
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Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?
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Fenris Penguin
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#15 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Greenie it was from Day 2. Nessa's post 209.
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But then I have my doubts now since Pitch had trumped up reasons against Nessa yesterday and seemed to be following the "frame job" against her.
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Fenris Penguin
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#16 | ||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I'm prepared to give Boro one more day, but he's in trouble tomorrow unless he comes up with an extremely good excuse for his behaviour.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 01-12-2011 at 07:29 AM. Reason: xed with Boro, two Nessas & Legate |
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#17 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Refresh my memory, folks. Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.
Anyway, I doubt very highly Shasta would have mixed together dreamed innocents with others in that "green" category, and it seems to be the best hint we have to go on. Greenie therefore earns baddie points by trying to cast doubt on it, especially since Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point. The Mänwe business is simply not as clear, contrary to what Agan says: "would be the first..." sounds more like a plan to dream him rather than a reference to an already dreamed wolf, but a Mänwe wolf, in that case, could still have killed Shasta because of that. At any rate, his posting toDay looks about as far from innocent as you can get. I can't see an innocent being so calm or detached in his situation: it is more like the response of a trapped wolf who decides to try reasoning his way out of things for the heck of it. The Boro/Mänwe "trying to play cobbler" business is especially bad. Sorry, Boro, but that looks like an explanation made up after the fact, or perhaps tacked on to the fact that, as a wolf, you wanted to pass yourself off as the cobbler, and Mänwe, is that a joke? If not, that's a pretty weak attempt at explaining yourself. I won't be around the rest of the morning, but when I return I'll try to explain my thinking as thoroughly as I can, since as a known innocent, I'm likely to be toast toNight (of course, if we get a wolf toDay as we have to, the ranger may be able to block the one kill toNight, which would be a long overdue bit of good luck for us...). Last edited by Rikae; 01-12-2011 at 08:16 AM. Reason: copy pasting "Mänwe", which I can't type |
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#18 | ||
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#19 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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My thoughts on everyone.
My guess at who the other 3 wolves are: Skip, Mac and either Greenie or Cailin. And yes, that is mostly on gut feeling. I feel very good about Legate, Nessa and Agan, and fairly good about Rikae. Gotta go now. Hopefully this goes well! x'ed with Agan
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#20 | |
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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![]() (No, I'm not accusing Cailin. Not yet anyway.) Have to say this though: I'm beginning to feel a bit better about this. Sure, the wolves are very much in the driving seat still, but if we nail a Män-wolf tonight, and a Boro-wolf tomorrow (or a who-ever wolf), I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Then we'd even have margin of error, right? I'm going to re-read yesterDay, see if I find anything interesting.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#21 | ||
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Your 'best bets' will doom you all.
You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.
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~~ Gads! I failed too.
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
- (Letter #124 To Sir Stanley Unwin) |
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#22 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Again, Manwe may be our best option and if that is what you and Rikae decide, that's what we will do. Also his latest post does not make me feel better about him. It's just that Macalaure's (and to a certain extent Aganzir's) absolute condemnation of Manwe looks suspicious. Last edited by Cailín; 01-12-2011 at 06:48 AM. Reason: crossed with Skip |
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