WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[skip spence]

There's also this:

Originally Posted by Legate

I will most probably vote Shasta. At least given how people seem to be inclined to vote. El ron hubbard would be a remote possibility, Mac in some very distant brackets, only if I had to choose. But no, I'd prefer Shasta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all.

Legate is in the clear, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

[Cailín]

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil?

Sloppy, I'm afraid. As I said, I only looked at the one post. I honestly did not think Shasta would have been so subtle yesterDay if he had found a wolf, but I guess he may have been trying to be heroic.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.

You can bet it does leave Cailín as an unknown factor, and one I really am suspicious about. Even this defense does not sound very genuine to me, to be honest. Though on the other hand, now knowing that Shasta was the Seer, and I suspected him... I am sort of wondering about how well my judgements have been this far. Well, there was this one moment the day before when I was thinking about him as either a Wolf or some Gifted, and I was reluctant, but then his posting made me put him as a Wolf and stick with it. Let's just hope it will go better in the future. Still, Cailín looks suspicious to me.

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

I am sure everybody will now go through Shasta's posts, I will do it myself too, in order to get my own check on it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

Possible. I have to look at it myself too. It is true that one might wonder why would Shasta do something so weird, as a Seer.

EDIT: x-ed since first Mac

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Me too. You should have seen my face.

Speaking of Boro... What on earth are you up to? The most likely explanation seems to be that he's a wolf pretending to be either the cobbler or a gifted pretending to be the cobbler. I simply can't see an innocent Boro behaving like that, even for the sake of not being night-killed.

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.

I see what you mean.


Alright, where do we stand?

Dreamt of innocent:
Legate

Likely dreamt of innocent:
Rikae

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Likely dreamt of wolf:
Mänwe
Even if he hasn't been dreamt of, the fact that Shasta is dead now makes it very, very likely that he's a wolf.

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Ordered by current suspicion:
Cailín
Skip
Boro
Wilwa
Greenie
Nessa

The field has been narrowed down nicely at last.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

My, my, Rikae's laconic uneasiness with me has sprouted and borne fruit, it seems. Evidently it's 'being jumpy' to ask someone who throws a laconic oneliner like that at me for explanations, especially when it was her first post and she'd singled me out without commenting on anybody else, yes?

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal, and Legate, Agan and I make perfect sense as his picks, all of us being so very creepy and all.

Shame that I don't get to scare Legate anymore, though. To answer his question, I was thinking about remodeling my kitchen, so that song started running through my head ("got to move these...refrigerators"), got mixed together with WW, and the result amused me enough that I posted it.

At any rate: I am starting to have a very bad feeling about Mac. It's only a feeling, but he's creeping me out. Going to have a look at his posts when I can.
Mac, how do you go from "probably he hasn't dreamt of me after all" (a reasonable conclusion) to listing yourself alongside Agan, who he put on the "green" list?

[Cailín]

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Think you are pretty optimistic there, Mac. I find no evidence that Shasta dreamed of you, except for some positive hints in the very early stages of the game, but he liked me then as well and I am sure none of you are so eager to clear me.

I found you fairly unsuspicious for the past few days, but you are not off my possible wolf list.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

---

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.

Yeah I noticed that too (although not until you pointed it out). However you need to keep in mind that us non-native speakers have a more limited vocabulary (thus we repeat words more often than the rest of you) so I wouldn't read too much into it. Boro & Pitch couldn't have identified each other for sure on day 1, but their connection is interesting.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal

What's your take on Mänwe then?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your take on Mänwe then?

The bit about "first person to enter my "red" category" is fairly incriminating. The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

[Mänwe]

I think we might underestimate the desire a seer might have for self preservation, seeing as they're one of the more immediately helpful characters to us innocents. I would venture it a possibility that he'd draw attention away from himself to a quiet and considered by most "submarine" prisoner, to ensure his survival for another night of dreaming.

I can see that his comments about me will be construed as proof of my guilt but I would say to my fellow good spirits, look carefully at who and how people jump onto what he said and condemn me- I could be the easiest bandwagon today if you allow it.

And so far the bandwagon has ended up a good spirit each time.

It's late here so i'll be back tomorrow.

EDIT: x'ed with Rikae and Aganzir

[Macalaure]

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

That post was more to make up my own mind to see what our options are from here. Maybe it wasn't worded/formatted well. For right now, Rikae, and you, too, are close enough to innocent to me to count with, especially since I thought you two were innocent before. Obviously, I didn't put myself into the list of remaining people either.

[skip spence]

I'm tired and should go to sleep but here's my opinion on Shasta's dreams:

Day 1.
Inconclusive. Not a wolf; possibly an innocent Mac but I doubt it given how Shasta start suspecting him later. Innocent Rikae is a more likely dream to me since she stays "green" throughout.

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

Day 3:
Almost certainly an innocent Legate

Day 4:
Probably a wolfish Mänwe. Possibly an innocent Agan.

Now to bed.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Suspected Pitch (in an approximate yet more or less arbitrary order from the most to the least suspicious - I haven't listed the dead or myself because this was originally a note intended just for me): Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa; Mac, wilwa, Green
Found Pitch innocent: Boro; wilwa, Nessa, Legate
Pitch found innocent: Boro, skip; Rikae

DAY 2
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa
Found Pitch innocent: Boro, skip, Cailín
Pitch found innocent: -

DAY 3
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Rikae, Cailín
Pitch suspected: No one (but Inzil, it seems)
Found Pitch innocent day 3: skip
Pitch found innocent: No one (but Shasta)

DAY 4
Suspected Pitch: Mac; wilwa, Rikae, skip; Green, Legate
Pitch suspected: flip-flopped on Legate
Found Pitch innocent: No one except Legate & Greenie did some flip-flopping
Pitch found innocent: Boro, Cailín, skip (whom he voted), semi-defended also Nessa

Originally Posted by Pitch on Nessa

chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.

I failed to see anything that would've suggested Pitch knew for sure Nessa is innocent, but the way he went after her makes me think better of her.

Ed constantly suspected Pitch while Mänwe attacked her - I believe this is the reason she was killed.

It's rather late now so I won't try to reach any conclusions about Pitch's interactions now but will do so tomorrow if I deem it worth the effort. I thought I'd still post these though.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

It does. The wolves were in pains to catch the seer last night because if they hadn't, they would've been considerably worse off today. In hindsight Shasta's comment about really not wanting to vote for Legate was probably a giveaway, but a seer simply wouldn't be so sloppy this late in the game as to explicitly put an unknown into his red category.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I would venture it a possibility that he'd draw attention away from himself to a quiet and considered by most "submarine" prisoner, to ensure his survival for another night of dreaming.

Someone suspected as heavily as Shasta was yesterday doesn't need to do so. Good try but I think I know who I'm voting for today.

Speaking of which, I might as well do it now because I don't think anything will happen that makes me change my mind. It would be an offense to Shasta to leave Mänwe alive after how he talked of him yesterday.

++MÄNWE

I still have my retraction if something drastic happens, though. I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Originally Posted by skip spence

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part. Well, at least it limits people's choices (they won't vote me), but they can also know that my points are not intentionally biased. I simply hope that they won't be too biased in any other way, I can promise you to do my best to avoid that...

Anyway, for now:

Shasta

First Day:

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan"
"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post."
Okay, this looks sort of as if he had dreamed of Mac, but the fact that he much later dropped him suggests to me that he was not his dream. Of course, Shasta could have been bluffing and such, but not sure if he would do it that way. Agan he calls a Cobbler later on, but still keeps her mostly "green". I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams). Also, let's note that possibly not all players have been around by the time he made the post. But on the other hand, he does not really mention anybody else after that, so...

If I were to guess, I would say he might have dreamed of Agan (not Mac because of the later Days). Whereas from later Days it would seem rather sensible to say he dreamed of Rikae, his comment about her on Day 1 is rather nothing-saying. Except that she is the first name mentioned ever. (I wanted to check if there is not a pattern like that by any chance, but seemingly isn't, since he starts Day 2 with me, whom he clears the day after).

Second Day:
Lots of mess and I am not sure. I wonder if he might have dreamed of either of the dead then (the question would be why, neither seems like a likely pick for him, I think). Anyway, he did not at least seem to have dreamed of a Wolf, and so if we look at people he found innocent:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy

So maybe some Rikae now, or even Lommy (who died later) etc.?

Third Day: Backpedals on me, and given how he suspected me before, yes, it is clearer than day that he had dreamed of me there. He had not posted anything much elaborate during the whole Day as he seemingly was posting just from his phone.

Fourth Day: Suddenly starts to think more of Mänwe, so I really wonder if it was that he dreamed of him. The sort of hyperactivity might go hand in hand with "hooray! After several Nights I have at last managed to get a Wolf, brilliant!" But, well... it is not 100%. He at least prefers him to other lynches, in any case, and seems more convinced about him (if you can use that word) than about anybody else.

He posted two lists, I am putting here even the first one, a sort of "intro" list of what he's going to do in the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

I actually call attention to this list, because here he says something about "I will look at..." or something about "just radar" about basically everybody except for me, Rikae, Aganzir, Manwe and Nessa. So that makes me think I might be right in my previous assumption.

Here is the other list of the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

He put me, Aganzir and Rikae in the same slot on his last Day's list. I really wonder if all his dreams have survived until now, somehow, it seems a bit improbable. On the other hand, not impossible, and especially with the above, it looks logical.

So yes, that's it, here I would conclude. The thing about calling Agan a cobbler seems more like a backpedaling bluff, it is not really so significant. So I would really think that his dreams were: 1-innocent Agan, 2-innocent Rikae, 3-innocent me, 4-guilty Mänwe (probably). He is still rather uncertain, or switching sides about Nessa to make me think he dreamed of her at any point.

This is probably enough for me now. I should wake up in 7 hours, so better go now. I'll just quickly check if somebody crossposted with me...

And btw: Mänwe's post does not look good to me, not at all, precious. I think an innocent would behave differently if suspected in this way.

(and p.s. sorry for the length, it's the quotes And I know it's like for the sixth time you see the quotes of Shasta toDay, but I think it's very good if everybody goes through it by themselves... or at least I want to, anyway, and also feel it a bit of my responsibility anyway)

EDIT: x-ed with one Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Hear, hear.

Basically yes. I think Mänwe is the best bet for toDay. But hey, I want to see people posting first, for now I am going to sleep. So looking forward to see people commenting here.

[wilwarin538]

Can make a quick post tonight, and then probably not til a couple hours before DL. I've had the worst luck this game for having time to participate.

The analyses of Shasta's dream-possibilities make a lot of sense. It's also possible that some of his earlier dreams were for people who are now dead, which could be why his first 2 dreams seem harder to figure out. But I have to agree that Legate looks quite good, and Manwe looks quite bad.

I was really surprised Pitch ended up being the Cobbler, because it seemed clear Boro was. But I don't think that makes Boro a wolf, yesterDay I said how the way Boro has been acting is more like a busy Ordo or a Cobbler, I don't think he'd behave this way as a wolf.

I wish I had more time, but I'm afraid I don't. I'll come back on tomorrow.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part.

Exactly. Pull yourself together or I'll give you Sharkey!

I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams).

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

But, well... it is not 100%.

I think it's about as clear as a seer can go without coming out.

Anyways I'm going to sleep.

[Macalaure]

Let's talk about something else.

YesterDay's voting:

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame...

[Macalaure]

And let's get this over with:

++Mänwe

No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

It matters for us, of course, because unlike you, we don't know if you are innocent. But yea, whatever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf. The Cobbler is sending them clues, but if e.g. neither Pitch nor Boro's name appeared among the names sent to them, and they had suspected Boro might be Cobbler as well as we did, then who knows... I say you jump too quickly to conclusions.

I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him.

I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

I obviously agree about Legate. I'm unsure about Rikae, and I'm pretty sure he didn't dream of you. It would be odd to keep calling a dreamed innocent a probable cobbler. I agree though that lynching Mänwe is our best bet toDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.

I'm not sure if I'd give as much weight to this as you do, given that Shasta said the list was about who he doesn't want to vote, and Agan was there because he thought she was probably the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

Cailín! First it was Valier talking cute about the little Maia and thus making it impossible to suspect her, now you're doing the same by talking about wedding cakes!

Originally Posted by Legate

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Yes, Boro is an interesting one. I can see no reason for a Borordo to post the way he did late yesterDay. Considering that he's still alive makes me seriously suspicious of him. As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.

Originally Posted by Agan

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

I'm still not sure of Nessa. Obviously Pitch thought she was an ordo, but then most of us did put her and Inzil in the same category at that time.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

As others have pointed out, this logic doesn't quite hold water.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

I pretty much agree with this.

Originally Posted by Mac

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

So basically a lot depends on Skip's role, doesn't it? If Skip is evil, Agan and Mac look bad. I'm still rather suspicious of Skip, but like Mac said the fact Pitch voted for him makes him look better, or else Pitch was mistaken. I'm not sure about Mac's thoughts on Wilwa and Nessa.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf.

Err?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Err?

Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course

Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case.

I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see:

Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following):

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

followed by Mac:

Originally Posted by Mac

I wish I would have thought of that yesterDay, but you're right. Certainly his behaviour toDay strongly suggests it.

And immediately in the next post by skip:

Originally Posted by Skip

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

Which is actually moving from words to deeds - rather alarming, in itself. Especially if Boro is innocent and the WWs knew he is not the Cobbler, then skip-wolf could be here calling for the possibility of getting rid of Boro. Or something.

Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac):

Originally Posted by Legate

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

And then we continued talking with more or less presuming he is one (at least from my part). Meanwhile, other players commented on that idea...

Originally Posted by wilwa

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

At that point, Rikae still kept asking him questions as if everything was normal, which makes me think that it supports her innocence.

Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now.

For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone.

What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it.

What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.

[Cailín]

I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae?

So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him.

I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted.

My list

The ones I think are our wolves:

Skip
Wilwa
Macalaure
Manwe

The ones I think could be our wolves:

Nessa
Boro
Greenie

Innocents:

Aganzir
Rikae
Legate

[Boromir88]

Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me.

Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily.

I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.

[A Little Green]

Boro, if you think Nessawolf bought your cobbler show, do you have some quote on that?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Cailín

However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

Well, it is true that his vote came at a point when there were votes for like four different people, none of them really being among his top suspects (they were votes for LRH, me, Pitch and Nessa). Earlier, Shasta had said about his suspects:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

He could have voted for Mänwe at that point, theoretically, but there has been quite a large debate before about who wants to vote whom and people did not really want to vote Mänwe. So I think he just went with the one of his suspects who seemed likely to get lynched.

In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say.

Anyway, off to lunch, will be back still in a while.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say.

I don't think I get your trap for the Wolves -theory. If suspecting Manwë was a trap to lure the wolves out, it obviously worked, but wouldn't that mean Manwë is a wolf? I'm confused.

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)

You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.

~~

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Once again a note about Mänwe... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it...

QFT

~~

Originally Posted by Cailín

Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe?

A fair point- I would say Shasta was preparing to dream of me last night and hadn't dreamt of me before. Being killed i'm not sure if Nog would have accepted a name to be dreamt about? If he did...then Shasta is turning in his grave at the possibility of me being lynched.

~~

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game.

Gads! I failed too.

[skip spence]

I must say, the moment I saw that Boro wasn't the cobbler I immediately thought: surely he is a wolf then!

Now I'm not as sure - I can see other possibilities - but I'm still quite certain. A wolf pretending to be the cobbler makes perfect sense whereas the other alternatives are quite far-fetched.

That said, I fully intend to vote Mänwe toDay. The combined evidence of Shasta's sudden red alert and the fact that the wolves night-killed him is the nail in the coffin for me. It would be foolish to ignore that.

In fact:

++Mänwe

By the way, isn't it ironic that Mänwe's only contribution (that I remember) was a call-out for more suspicion for the quiet, low-key players?

EDIT: x'ed with the Män himself

[Cailín]

He could have voted for Mänwe at that point, theoretically, but there has been quite a large debate before about who wants to vote whom and people did not really want to vote Mänwe. So I think he just went with the one of his suspects who seemed likely to get lynched.

Fair enough, but I just have doubts. Shasta knew he was going to die any minute. The wolves had / have a terrible advantage at the moment that would likely be the end of us: the double kill. With one wolf down, and a couple of known innocents, he would have bought us Days. If I had been the Seer and found a wolf in this stage in the game, I would have pushed very strongly for a Manwe lynch and very possibly revealed my true identity. I realise this is unfair, because Shasta is more experienced (I have only been the Seer once and I have not played regularly for years) but it seems so obvious. When Shasta voted Skip, Skip had zero votes and there were many votes still to follow. No reason for Shasta to despair yet.

Again, Manwe may be our best option and if that is what you and Rikae decide, that's what we will do. Also his latest post does not make me feel better about him. It's just that Macalaure's (and to a certain extent Aganzir's) absolute condemnation of Manwe looks suspicious.

[Mänwe]

Will no one accept my making things worse for myself as a sign I am innocent?

[Boromir88]

Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages. So his dreams are there somewhere.

Post 43.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

And here's what I mean about Shasta, he probably didn't dream about Mac, Kitanna, and Agan. Even if he feels good about them, the way that he lumped all 3 together as "looking good," I doubt he had dreamed of any of them first night.

It's possible Rikae was, since she's separated from Mac, Kit, and Agan, but what he says looks pretty inconclusive. Also, he seems more commentating on what's been happening to Pitch being heavily suspected, and not pointing to who he dreamed of

Post 76.

I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks ).

On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely. When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.

Disagrees with Mac about Agan, but still thinks he looks good. So, still, highly doubtful Mac was Shasta's night 1 dream. Feels good about Legate, but because of his last post, so I don't think he dreamed of Legate at this point.

Shasta votes Lottie, Day 1.

I think it's clear enough that for his first dream, Shasta did not know any wolves, and had not dreamed of Pitch as the cobbler. From the looks, possibly Rikae or Agan, who he remained positive about throughout the day. His feeling good about Mac, Kit, and Legate up to this point, looks based off how they were posting and agreeing with what they were saying.

Day 2.

Post 234. It's long, and commenting towards a lot of people. I won't quote it but, it confirms he's trusting Rikae, and he's starting to find Legate suspicious. (It then makes sense, and fits in line that he would dream of Legate asap)

Post 252.

It doesn't seem like Shasta had a wolf at this point either. He "feels no-nonsense bad" about Legate, but that's purely on Legate's posting.

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Looking at who he "feels good about." Lommy and Cailin he basically says the same thing about, there are no warning signs "yet." Doesn't look like he had dreamed any of them. Also, on Mac, he says he hopes that he's not giving Mac a "pass" simply for sounding logical. So, he hasn't dreamed of Mac either.

On Eomer:

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.

Possibly, but he's dead now.
On Agan:

Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.

This looks like a really elaborate defense, after earlier saying he thought there was wolvish involvement in the sally-wagon. About Agan's vote, he makes the point to say it's the "least-wolvish of the lot."

On Rikae:

Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.

So, again it looks like Day 2, Shasta has not dreamed of a wolf, but his continued defenses for Rikae and Agan, he at least dreamed of one of them. His biggest suspect on Day 2 was Legate, and this leads to Day 3, where I have no doubt he had dreamed of Legate the following night.

Post 410.

Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

He also states he will probably vote for Inzil or Nessa because of the 3 days of "crap" about it, but there's no doubt he had dreamed of Legate, and had no wolf up to this point. So, moving onto the next day.

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?

[Boromir88]

Greenie it was from Day 2. Nessa's post 209.

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

Which I think was referring to the business between sally/Agan/wilwa on Day 1. The possibility that the cobbler would send in his own name first night and the wolves would then know who the cobbler was. It just seemed like a really misplaced or strange thing for Nessa to comment on. I couldn't figure it out other than it looked like Nessa let slip she knew the cobbler had already hinted to the wolves.

But then I have my doubts now since Pitch had trumped up reasons against Nessa yesterday and seemed to be following the "frame job" against her.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me.

Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily.

I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.

I don't recall ever voting or suspecting you, goodsir. Where on earth did you get that idea?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I don't recall ever voting or suspecting you, goodsir. Where on earth did you get that idea?

EDIT: Crossed with Boro

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't think I get your trap for the Wolves -theory. If suspecting Manwë was a trap to lure the wolves out, it obviously worked, but wouldn't that mean Manwë is a wolf? I'm confused.

Yes, I meant unless in case if Mänwe was not a Wolf and Shasta just wanted to try to lure the WWs out, and they then attacked him either randomly or with some different purpose, like to frame innocent Mänwe. But anyway, of course most likely is that he is one of them and either was dreamed about or at most being lured out (if e.g. Shasta perhaps dreamed of somebody who died that Night, or something).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?

Because if he put only one person into his "red" box, it would be clear to the WWs that he is the Seer, especially if Mänwe is one of them. Shasta obviously wanted to stay hidden still. Of course, it was not much more subtle (from the WWs' perspective) to go after Mänwe in such way, but he did also another analysis of Cailín and made all these "announcements" that he is going to look at this one and that one toDay in his beginning post of the Day. And when Mänwe was not lynched normally, he perhaps hoped for not being discovered (since the idea was dismissed) while at the same time leaving a clear enough clue in case he died. Or this is the way I could imagine it.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.

I seem to remember you quote a post by him and said it looked like the cobbler trying to draw the wolves' attention to something they might not have noticed, or was there something else too?

Originally Posted by Mänwe

A fair point- I would say Shasta was preparing to dream of me last night and hadn't dreamt of me before.

The hilarious part is, that's something a seer-dreamed Shastawolf once tried himself. "It's obvious from the seer's posts that he always suspected the one he was going to dream of the following night, therefore he hadn't dreamed of me yet!"

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages.

Boro I don't know if I should laugh or cry... As far as I know he's only been the seer once before and was lynched on day 1 (you were the cobbler in that game). However the Shastaranger I remember can be very cryptic, as the "No he's not the ranger I'm the ranger even though I didn't leave any clues about my save, oh he did, well let's lynch him nonetheless!" Boro knows well.

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?

When he moves a person he had previously said basically nothing about down to the red list.

I'm prepared to give Boro one more day, but he's in trouble tomorrow unless he comes up with an extremely good excuse for his behaviour.