Game Thread: WW LXXXVI - The Halls of Mandos

[Glirdan]

Day 1

Completely absent (only remembered that the game started when she got a phone call from me reminding her).

Day 2

Post #228

Just saying she was here and getting caught up on everything.

Post #231

Quotes something from Boro and says that she would have said the same thing (and reading what Boro posted and the tone in which it was said, I could definitely see Wilwa saying the same thing).

Brings up a very good point about the voting:

Alrighty. So not much can be taken from Manwe's lynch, because we have no idea what he is. We can still suspect/trust people based on their votes (all votes, not just those for Manwe), but not in the usual way. Usually we can say "X voted for Y, who we now know is innocent, so...", but now it's more based on why they voted for people, so if they gave good reasoning, or if it seemed random, and so on. It's an interesting situation, cause now someone can look bad to us because of how they voted, but for all we know they actually voted a wolf (which would make them look awesome), but we don't have that knowledge. It's all just so crazy.

Thinks I don't look like a Wolf because of my "Last-time-Shasta-was-a-Seer" comment, but states that she could believe me to be a Cobbler but also says this:

Or Shasta's death is totally unrelated to Glirdy's comment, and more related to the fact that people seemed to like him a lot (though this doesn't exclude the possibility of Glirdy being a Cobbler, he could still have meant to hint at the Wolves but the Wolves just killed Shasta for a totally different reason).

Post #327

Focuses on Nog's Seer reveal, incling to believe him.

I am inclined to believe him. This would be a rather crazy bold thing for a Wolf, or even a Cobbler to do, on only Day 2. And I can understand why he felt he had to reveal, what with the Lovers in the position they're in, and people seeming to want to vote for him. Now he'll be safe for toNight, and then he can dream of people as they die, and hopefully the Ranger lasts for a while and can provide us with a bunch of those dreams later on in the game (even if it's just dreams of dead players, that's still super useful, cause it'll be information that we can use to find connections between people).

This is definitely a very logical statement, and one that I feel a Wolf or Cobbler would not make. I don't know why, I just feel like the statement screams innocent. I just feel like a Wolf and/or Cobbler wouldn't make a statement that bold or reveal a possible plan of attack.

Goes on to say that she would rather no lynch phantom.

Post #363

Says this in response to Agan's trap:

This is the bestest thing ever.

Post #368

Agrees with Angu (there, better then Toppins?? ) about feeling silly about trusting Nog and agrees that he is definitely not the Seer.

Post #372

Votes Nog

All in all, I'd say Wilwa seems fairly innocent to me. The tone of her posts and the way she's posting says innocent. The only downside is the frequentness of her posts....or I should say, lack there of.

EDIT: Xed since last...again

[Glirdan]

And Greenie just did the Elra analysis for me, which I will read up later, but for now, I must depart for supper. I also have a rehearsal I have to leave for in about two hours and will be there for three hours, so if I do not make an appearence before my rehearsal, expect me back afterwards for voting.

[A Little Green]

I have to go to sleep now. So I'm going to go for

++ Lommy

Because out of my current top suspects Lommy and Nessa, she's the one that I find a less likely innocent. She quite simply isn't herself at all, she's jumpy and nervous and making weird arguments.

Good night!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oh, not even her seeming certainty that Shasta wasn't the seer or her reluctance to believe Nog?

I wouldn't think so. I mean, I don't think Fea was the Seer, and that doesn't mean that I myself am. And Fea wasn't the only one to distrust Nog's reveal. When it comes to Seer candidates, I'd think the wolves could have found stronger ones.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

How does a cobbler's top suspect equal innocent? Or just trusting phantom's brainpower that much?

It hardly certified your innocence, but it did make me more hesitant to distrust you. After all, when you have two suspects, one of which is suspected by a 'cobbler' and the other of which is suspected by a 'seer', which are you going to want to vote?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Regarding the dead thread

The votes on Manwe came about as follows - I was quite vocal about Nog, and voted him just as soon as Night started. Nog came on and we dueled for a while, but he was very calm about his impending reveal, even going out of his way to vote for himself. I decided that he was a cobbler at that point (had been leaning that way for some time), and retracted my vote to switch to Manwe, whom we knew nothing about but /was/ lynched (Nog's actions being such that I felt he knew he'd turn up 'not a wolf'). Manwe then came on and voted for himself, making it 2 for him and 1 for Nog.

I also told the dead thread to always vote for the lynched player for the role reveal - anyone killed by the wolves is by definition not a wolf, so a revelation of them is a waste.

In other news, Nog is still claiming that Phantom is a cobbler. Manwe would like Boro, among others, looked at. Oh, yes, and Fea is high on Nog's suspected list. Anyway.

Lommy's actions today are striking me as odd, but not wolfish-odd - they look more to me like a Prelude to Chaos in C Minor - that is, a lead-up to a chaotic cobbler play. The main person I'm looking at is Lottie, who defended Nog yesterday.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The main person I'm looking at is Lottie, who defended Nog yesterday.

I would have done the same thing as an innocent or as a wolf. As an innocent, I believed his claim. I supported him because I didn't want to lynch our Seer. As a wolf, I still would have believed his claim. I would have supported him to try and avoid a Seer dream. After all, lynches you can fight against. Seer dreams you can't control. As a cobbler is where I'd have done it differently. I still would have believed his claim. And, as a cobbler, I'd have attacked him. As a cobbler, I wouldn't fear a Seer dream - if I died, I died, no biggie - but I would like to see the Seer lynched, so that they wouldn't dream of any wolves.

So, basically, the only thing you can learn from my defense of Nog is that I'm either innocent or a wolf or a lying cobbler, and that I'm a little bit guillible.

[Mithalwen]

There are a lot on the dark side this game but not an infinite number - some of the people playing silly beggars have to be wolves..they can't all be cobblers esp if the BG hypothesis is correct. Lommie hasn't been as I remembered her this game. Either she has become disengaged or she is up to something. If I had to vote now it would be for her but I can hang fire for a bit.

[Thinlómien]

Boro - I get it you're not exactly happy about me suspecting you when you're already being suspected by many. However, I'm not going to drop my suspicions or apologise for them just because you're my friend. And what you said still is basically "you're (almost) right when calling me a cobbler", whether you meant it or not. And of course you say you didn't mean it, but you must understand I can't take your word for that. And I might be ignoring most of the other suspicion coming your way - because, like you said, it's baseless. It's Sally's and elephant's problem if they don't have grounds for their suspicions, not mine. And I guess I do not need to comment on Nog's suspicions on you, since that cobbler is already dead.

I didn't pay much attention to Nessa before, but Glirdan's analysis is rather eyebrow-raising. Whether it means Nessa is guilty (and I think he could be as well a wolf as a cobbler) or Glirdan is a crafty cobbler, I cannot really say. Have to think about this.

Originally Posted by Mith

No you didn't say but your posts show you didn't even bother reading to the second sentence of his only post!
Now the only reason I can think of for not scouring his every word is that he can tell you nothing new ie that you already know who is a wolf or not.

Come on, that's not very nice. I already said I didn't realise the revealment-vote thingy started yet (I didn't realise it started right after the death of the third peson, if you want to chastise me for something, you ought to chastise me for not reading the rules properly not for not reading other people's posts carefully) and that's why I was confused. I don't really like this post of yours, because either you have not been reading my posts properly or you're intentionally trying to make me look ridiculous.

Glirdan's analysis made me think about Wilwa more. I see my vote yesterDay was hasty - apart from the gloating tone of her first post, she actually seems quite fine.

Originally Posted by Greenie

She quite simply isn't herself at all, she's jumpy and nervous and making weird arguments.

I protest! I think my arguments aren't any weirder than normal, the game is just a lot weirder than any in ages with the dead thread, unknown roles and three cobblers. *shudders*

Originally Posted by Lottie

After all, when you have two suspects, one of which is suspected by a 'cobbler' and the other of which is suspected by a 'seer', which are you going to want to vote?

Okay, fair point.

Shasta, thanks for the info. That's sure something to think about.


edit: xed with Mith, Legz and Boro

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien;648207.

Come on, that's not very nice. I already said I didn't realise the revealment-vote thingy started yet (I didn't realise it started right after the death of the third peson, if you want to chastise me for something, you ought to chastise me for not reading the rules properly not for not reading other people's posts carefully) and that's why I was confused. I don't really like this post of yours, because either [I

you [/I]have not been reading my posts properly or you're intentionally trying to make me look ridiculous.

"Nogrod. Every indication is that of cobblery, even io to his dead vote"

This was the sentence after the one where Shasta says that Manwe has a wolf. You didn't have to read the rules carefully to get a fairly big reminder that the dead had started. So don't you get on your high horse with me when you have proved what I have said is true. You cannot claim both that you have read Shasta's post thoroughly AND that you were unaware of the dead vote starting.

I am not trying to make you look ridiculous. I am pointing out an inconsistency which is perfectly valid and as far as I can see I am on to something. I am now absolutely certain you are at least a cobbler.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, I am around now, though really not much in the state for playing (feeling incredibly tired, almost to the point of exhaustion, seriously).

Generally, there hasn't been even too much said... the things that have stood out for me is the debate about Boro, which may have its merit, and also some of the points Greenie had brought about elra in her analysis are interesting. Otherwise, general comments...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. It is my feeling that a cobbler posing as the Seer is still more dangerous on the Living than the Dead thread. So I'm not sure the people who voted him after that look as bad as you think. I mean, the way things were going at that time, the alternative candidate was phantom (also as a supposed cobbler.) Though, I guess it's interesting that everyone appeared to see it as one or the other. I mean– why?

Well, phantom was there probably because Nog has labeled him as a dreamed-of Cobbler. So I think otherwise, the "two camps" existed most likely simply because of Nog's revelation.

As for the dangerousness of the Cobbler, well, after a Night or two, if he wasn't targeted, it would become clear that he is not what he claims to be. Also...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I agree the baddies might have been voting for him though, especially if one of their own was suspected. But I don't think it's bad we lynched Nog. If we want to achieve anything, we have to kill the baddies, all of them not just the wolves. I don't like how Legate keeps insisting the cobblers are of secondary importance.

They are not - but it is a bit different from other games, and especially under the circumstances like these, lynching a Cobbler a) prevents you from lynching a Wolf (so the Cobbler is partially fulfilling its purpose), b) with so low numbers, the Cobbler can start making a mess in Mandos. And he also cannot be distinguished anymore from an ordinary innocent (or gifted). So, like this. I think in general it would have been more advantageous for the WWs yesterDay to lynch the Cobbler than for us. Something like that.

Okay. I am afraid I won't get to my Nerwelysis, which I wanted to make, or I can try, but depending on how much she had posted... otherwise, I might just slowly decide my vote... there are several options, I am still circling more or less around the Nessa-phantom-maybe Lottie (?) or also Ang - circle with Lommies/Boros/some of the abovementioned being also possibly a Cobbler... (and now interested about Elronhubbard and still having Nerwen to look at)

EDIT: x-ed after LG's vote, with Lottie, Shasta, Lottie, Mith

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Agan

When I first read this I thought it was Boro's explanation for believing Nog's claim (which I found extremely fishy) but now that it isn't 4 am anymore, I see it wasn't the case and it actually makes sense. Hmm okay then there's his next post where his opinion changes (after phantom corrected him about the rules) so I don't know what he meant after all...

I never truly believed his claim, but I thought the reason baddies make fake reveals is the desperate attempt to save themselves for at least one more day. However, I thought if a wolf-Nog was truly trying to save himself it would have been far easier to just say he didn't have a wolf, or if he was going to name someone as a baddie, than to name that person as a wolf. To me, calling phantom a cobbler wasn't a sure fire way for Nog to save himself, which is the objective of an fake reveal.

At that time I didn't come to any sure conclusion about Nog's reveal, but I wasn't really believing it either.

Then when phantom pointed out since the cobblers aren't going to be revealed in the dead thread, it's actually smarter that he names a cobbler because then Nog's fake seer claim would be harder to check. If Nog claims phantom's a wolf, phantom dies, and it turns up in the dead thread phantom is not a wolf, Nog's trick is up. I wasn't thinking about the cobblers prior, and once phantom pointed out why Nog would chose to call him a cobbler instead of a wolf, I was dead set convinced Nog had fake revealed. And that he's probably a cobbler, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns up wolf either.

That all occured before your own trap, which I did not see until waking up later (which the BD happened to be brokey for a while when I did wake up )

I think Nessa's too easy of a target. Granted, that's what everyone said when she was a wolf previously, that she was getting framed, but then she fueled the idea she was getting framed. I think we tend to forget when you really don't have any information it's difficult to come up with some impeccable shiny-phantom idea. All you can really do is read what's posted, guess at who sounds good to you, which typically looks like you're just sitting back and going with the flow. Going with the flow is not really a solid reason to suspect someone of wolvery, and Glirdan, you shouldn't overlook the times when Nessa has added her own ideas.

I may be back. I may not be.

++Lommy

Reasons should be clear enough from my previous post. And I didn't even get to her opinions about Nog, which really said nothing about what her opinions were. Nog Day 1 "seemed ok" and was then was giving her a headache Day 2. And then the comment about how Shasta's (or was it Fea's? I forget) death made Nog look better.

As for me, I'm ready to make my own bed.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

++Lommy

Reasons should be clear enough from my previous post. And I didn't even get to her opinions about Nog, which really said nothing about what her opinions were. Nog Day 1 "seemed ok" and was then was giving her a headache Day 2. And then the comment about how Shasta's (or was it Fea's? I forget) death made Nog look better.

Hey come on now that's over the top! I think (I don't remember) I thought Nog okay on Day1, but yesterDay I was confused. There was something fishy in his manner, yet it was fishy in the typical Nogrod manner. I wasn't around when he made his revelation. And as for toDay - I have quite clearly said several times I think it's most likely he was a cobbler.

I think you're taking this a bit personally, which I'm sorry about, because I never meant to provoke you that way (I know you said you're not insulted, which is good, 'cos I'm not trying to insult anyone).

Wondering if this is a sign of innocence and I shouldn't vote you toDay...?

Gah. I should make a list to organise my head. I have so many probable cobblers in my head and only a few probable wolves.

[elronds_daughter]

Well, the only opinions I've developed over the course of the day are a) I tend to think the people who do lots of in-depth analyzing (e.g., Greenie, Glirdy) are innocent; b) I still don't like the way phantom's been coming across*, but I won't vote for him today because I think he's just a cobbler; c) I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro vs. Lommy...thing...but if I had to choose one of them right now I'd side with Boro.

I'll be back later to vote.


*Greenie, I feel I ought to explain how tp went from "on my good side" to "pinging my uh-oh radar", since it seemed to worry you a bit (though not enough to think I'm guilty, thanks for that). I have a bad habit of sometimes only skimming through people's tome-posts, and tp was at first distilling those down to a point where my overtaxed brain could understand....but then his nice distillations turned into confusion-sowing (at least that's how I perceived it). Hence the switch. He hasn't talked much today, though. I'm not sure what to make of that.

EDIT: x'ed with lots, in particular sally who explained tp's silence.