Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I'm more concerned about clearing up the BG and Nog mess.

I am too, but since we have no way to tell the live 'uns that we've changed the plan, we can't go ahead and change the plan.

It seems a foregone conclusion that any voting would tell us that Nog isn't a wolf. Either he's the seer and obviously he's innocent, or he's a cobbler and will show up as not-a-wolf anyway. So we can't really do a thing about that.

My initial thought on BG was hunter or Glorf. I'm not sure that voting to learn BG's former role would do anything, since it's been reassigned? I guess telling us that would be up to the mods.

But still, since the last known contract with the village stated that we'd view the first person lynched each day, we can't go and change that now. It really must be Lommy if we want this arrangement to work at all. Otherwise we'd all end up having to abstain from extra-vote-voting to avoid giving wrong messages for the village to obsess over, and I don't like that at all.

[Rikae]

Voting BG would reveal her current wolf/non-wolf status.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I did say she is Beren from the get-go quite openly and never claimed she was Lúthien.

Because I said I was Beren, and what reason would an innocent have to lie? I so regret not being able to predict Nog's show... if I had said I was Lúthien, we wouldn't have to go through this now.
Remember I revealed before Nog. Before that, he had no clue I was Beren. If he had had, he would have let me know - instead he told me off for not seeing his "hints", but there were no hints whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

although it would have required quite a bold act and a lot of luck to hit it right with Agan on D1 (remember that to a cobbler her role would have been a shot in the dark).

It would require luck to say I was innocent? No. That was more likely than not, anyway (and if I had been a wolf, it would have served your cobbler purposes just as well because it would have led people to suspect me). You took pains to leave a coded seer hint but not a hint about my true role (or the phantom's) which was the only thing that would have given your reveal credibility.

Nog is not stupid. It's not difficult to drop a gifted hint or two here and there - BUT HE DID NOTHING THAT WOULD HAVE PROVED HE KNEW MORE THAN THE REST OF US. Because he didn't.

He is not the seer. Repeat: he is not the seer. After being lynched as a cobbler there were two things he could do: give up and be totally useless, or try to keep his show up. He chose the latter. He's acting well but I don't care how good his arguments are, he's lying blatantly.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I promise 100% accuracy on my dreams. I will not err with them like a cobbler eventually would.

Hahaha.
Shasta and I were the only problem you might have had but that won't cause you any trouble, thanks to the wolves. The hunter's and the ranger's roles will be more or less obvious anyway. When a wolf or a cobbler dies and you call them innocent, they will know you for what you are and back you up. Sorry Nogs but I see through this.

Hey I came up with something...

TO THE HUNTER AND HER VICTIM: when you die, whichever posts here first should say she was the hunter. The other will support her claim. Nog will dream of the other and tell her role. Let's see who got it right. (That can't prove he's the seer because he has a 50/50 chance of hitting it right, but it might at least prove he's lying).

This is all I'm going to say about Nogrod. I think we all should just ignore him because while making long posts with lots of arguments for his innocence, he keeps distracting us. Good job, cobbler.
(As an aside, in the nearly impossible case Nog really is the seer, I expect to never hear any comments about Shasta getting himself killed as a gifted.)

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I am too, but since we have no way to tell the live 'uns that we've changed the plan, we can't go ahead and change the plan.

Exactly. I know it was me who made the agreement with the village on behalf of us all, but being a known innocent I think I had the right to do it. I said we should check the first person to reach the highest number because it's unlikelier the baddies would intentionally push one of their own to be double lynched although I know it can happen by accident.

I just hope the village tells us what we should do with Nessa & tomorrow's lynch...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I know it was me who made the agreement with the village on behalf of us all, but being a known innocent I think I had the right to do it. I said we should check the first person to reach the highest number because it's unlikelier the baddies would intentionally push one of their own to be double lynched although I know it can happen by accident.

I just hope the village tells us what we should do with Nessa & tomorrow's lynch...

As you can see from before you got here, I was clearly agreeing with you and yelling silently at the folk who couldn't hear me, seeing if I could speak mind to mind to get them to see that it's a solid plan.

And yeah, I agree. I hope somebody in the village is sensible enough to notice that there are some problems here in terms of who to talk about.

[Aganzir]

At the moment I trust Lommy about as little as I trust the phantom.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What if we just abstained from extra-voting? --- What do we gain by giving anyone an extra vote? --- check whoever we judge is the most fruitful one to check, refrain from all extra-vote voting (which can even be harmful) and wait for Glorfy to come here

No. I thought about that too but it'd be much more harmful than accidentally giving the extra vote for a baddie. The village would be blind till Glorfy gets here, and because we can't affect the outcome of the game from here, there will be no "fruitful checks" for us. I for one am not going to let the village down.

That suggestion makes me feel three times worse about Lommy than I ever felt when she was still alive.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

As you can see from before you got here, I was clearly agreeing with you and yelling silently at the folk who couldn't hear me

*snuggles Fea*

[Thinlómien]

Ah I feel so much like picking a fight with Agan because she's playing with such double standards but then again I think I know better than to use my energy attacking someone I know is innocent.

Anyhow, please reread what you just posted, and think whether you make sense:

No. I thought about that too but it'd be much more harmful than accidentally giving the extra vote for a baddie. The village would be blind till Glorfy gets here, and because we can't affect the outcome of the game from here, there will be no "fruitful checks" for us. I for one am not going to let the village down.

That suggestion makes me feel three times worse about Lommy than I ever felt when she was still alive.

You had the same idea yet the fact that I came up with it makes me seem suspicious?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We might cause them to have more double lynches

Or we might prevent double lynches.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You had the same idea yet the fact that I came up with it makes me seem suspicious?

I toyed with the idea but decided against it because it would do more harm than good. You suggested it. That's the difference between us.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

TO THE HUNTER AND HER VICTIM: when you die, whichever posts here first should say she was the hunter. The other will support her claim. Nog will dream of the other and tell her role. Let's see who got it right. (That can't prove he's the seer because he has a 50/50 chance of hitting it right, but it might at least prove he's lying).

Good, except that given that narration indicated your and Shasta's roles quite clearly, it would be only logical if it indicated those of the hunter and whoever was hunted. Also, the plan does not work if the hunter is lynched. So I wouldn't be too hopeful about being able to bust Nogrod. We just have to wait for another seer and let's hope one won't appear in a while.

And agreed about the village hopefully being smart and reaching conclusions instead of just coming up ideas and leaving them hanging in the air.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'll do one more of these (this seems to be "the thread of repetiton") as I see Agan making a totally dismissive case. And I hope at least you Agan read this. You others might do well to do it as well though.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because I said I was Beren, and what reason would an innocent have to lie? I so regret not being able to predict Nog's show... if I had said I was Lúthien, we wouldn't have to go through this now.
Remember I revealed before Nog. Before that, he had no clue I was Beren. If he had had, he would have let me know - instead he told me off for not seeing his "hints", but there were no hints whatsoever.

I've had hard times to go back to the thread to read it closely for D2 from pure embarrassment. And I actually mean it. But I did go there to check yesterday about the order of the revelations as I wasn't myself sure how it went. And I found you saying you two were lovers and then me stating you were Beren.

I went there back again now (oh, the pain...) and yes I agree, you did have that line after the love poem (which I actually remember you did) where you congrated the wolves for killing Lúthien. I should have noticed that yesterday. And the odd part is that I have no way of explaining why I didn't, even if I was looking for which one of us first said and what (maybe it was because getting to that post I recognized the poem and just thought: "okay, here's the post she reveals she was Shasta's lover"?).

Then again, I only realised a moment ago - looking back to this thread that Mac actually ended the "narration" for this Night to begin, with:

Originally Posted by Mac

It is now Night 4. You may choose which one of you shall be revealed as wolf or not. If your role allows you to do something else at Night, too... do so.

Did you notice that? Well, I didn't, except an hour ago. I know this is no proof to any direction about me being the seer or that people may lose important lines from the bottom of a message when they read fast. But I hope you think of the possibility of those two things is not totally improbable.

It would require luck to say I was innocent? No. That was more likely than not, anyway (and if I had been a wolf, it would have served your cobbler purposes just as well because it would have led people to suspect me). You took pains to leave a coded seer hint but not a hint about my true role (or the phantom's) which was the only thing that would have given your reveal credibility.

I think I already said that getting a lover as the first dream was the worst possible one to have. I did think of leaving something in a code of some sorts about you being Beren and not just an innocent but it felt pretty hard - and dangerous. Actually, knowing that if you got killed then someone else would die as well, I was strongly considering leaving no hints at all on D1.

But thinking of the totally freaked out way this game would work I decided still to leave something (hence my putting you Agan as the only one in the inocent tally) to show on D6 or something. Later on D1 I felt the need to add that coded "I'm the seer" message followed with the sentence stating that I'm positive about your innocence. And I was afraid even that was too much to say.

Nog is not stupid. It's not difficult to drop a gifted hint or two here and there - BUT HE DID NOTHING THAT WOULD HAVE PROVED HE KNEW MORE THAN THE REST OF US. Because he didn't.

It is not difficult, in away, if you can be proven right afterwards or if you have any other dream than lovers who both are goodies. One just doesn't want to make that.

If you go back to your post where you revealed you were Shasta's lover, you can see I change my play on you immediately. Before that when you suspected me I said something along the lines "are you trying to make me suspect you, no deal done" - trying to let you understand I'm not going to go for you for a reason. But after that I started sying I was wondering whether I had read you wrong etc. detaching myself from any real knowledge on your role to save my seership.

But what happened: led by your example I started gathering a tremendous amount of suspicion (and at that time I hadn't been playing that stupidly or abrasively) and as the clock ticked on in to the wee hours I started realising you guys were going to lynch me and that the village was losing their seer - and with the aid of tiredness, panic and a few glasses of wine too much the disaster was wowen.

It's clear I was not in any conscious state of mind on the last hour. If you wish to check, see the first posts I made here. Okay, please don't (I haven't have the nerve to reread them ever since), but if you have to... Well, if it takes that to believe me and get our act straight here, then go and read them.

He is not the seer. Repeat: he is not the seer.

Well, I am. Sadly so. Repeat: Well, I am. Sadly so.

After being lynched as a cobbler there were two things he could do: give up and be totally useless, or try to keep his show up. He chose the latter. He's acting well but I don't care how good his arguments are, he's lying blatantly.

After being lynched as the seer I had two options: to give up or try to fight for it. I have kind of taken the middle route here s to begin with. If I think there's even a minute chance someone would listen to me, I'd do my best in here but if I will be totally ignored with a majority decision, then who cares?

We're still hanging around that delicate balance. But as long as people say "don't listen to him" I find it hard to really delve into the living-thread and start working for hours to find the culprits. From what I know of myself though, I'll probably stand up and start really fighting for the village in the end, whatever you say of it.

But getting into that heavily involved mood isn't exactly helped with comments which say that: "I don't care how good his arguments are, he's lying blatantly!"

When a wolf or a cobbler dies and you call them innocent, they will know you for what you are and back you up. Sorry Nogs but I see through this.

Nope. I'll call a cobbler a cobbler and a wolf a wolf - and they will heavily disagree. The ordinary innocents will know what I'm doing though.

There's no way to say which roles are coming here, so there's no way in telling how effective that will be.

TO THE HUNTER AND HER VICTIM: when you die, whichever posts here first should say she was the hunter. The other will support her claim. Nog will dream of the other and tell her role. Let's see who got it right. (That can't prove he's the seer because he has a 50/50 chance of hitting it right, but it might at least prove he's lying).

I'd be ready to take a challenge of that kind any time and can promise you 100% right answer. But with the illogical hunter (kills whoever is her/his target) it's hard to see the evidence of that.

This is all I'm going to say about Nogrod. I think we all should just ignore him because while making long posts with lots of arguments for his innocence, he keeps distracting us.

You disregard my views on your own peril, I must say. Don't tell me afterwards I didn't say that.

But I'll promise to come up with this issue only when I think I need to do that...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

But still, since the last known contract with the village stated that we'd view the first person lynched each day, we can't go and change that now. It really must be Lommy if we want this arrangement to work at all. Otherwise we'd all end up having to abstain from extra-vote-voting to avoid giving wrong messages for the village to obsess over, and I don't like that at all.

In fact, you got me thinking along totally revolutionary lines... what if we did it? What if we just abstained from extra-voting? Before you butcher me with jungle knives and pole axes, stop and think about it. What do we gain by giving anyone an extra vote? We have no idea who's innocent and even if we did, we could hardly trust their judgement blindly. And with the current plan, we're not even trying to give an extra vote to an innocent, but to anyone, who might be a wolf or a cobbler just as well as an innocent. So I say it might even make sense check whoever we judge is the most fruitful one to check, refrain from all extra-vote voting (which can even be harmful) and wait for Glorfy to come here and return to the village with a host of really useful information instead of the roles of the ones we've been "forced to" check.

Anyhow, still haven't checked the living thread as I promised. Off to do it now.


edit: xed with Agan

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

In fact, you got me thinking along totally revolutionary lines... what if we did it? What if we just abstained from extra-voting? Before you butcher me with jungle knives and pole axes, stop and think about it. What do we gain by giving anyone an extra vote? We have no idea who's innocent and even if we did, we could hardly trust their judgement blindly. And with the current plan, we're not even trying to give an extra vote to an innocent, but to anyone, who might be a wolf or a cobbler just as well as an innocent. So I say it might even make sense check whoever we judge is the most fruitful one to check, refrain from all extra-vote voting (which can even be harmful) and wait for Glorfy to come here and return to the village with a host of really useful information instead of the roles of the ones we've been "forced to" check.

Anyhow, still haven't checked the living thread as I promised. Off to do it now.


edit: xed with Agan

I vehemently disagree with this. Giving extra votes is the only way we have to affect the living thread and I see no reason to ignore that.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I vehemently disagree with this. Giving extra votes is the only way we have to affect the living thread and I see no reason to ignore that.

Why? Given the strategy we are about to adopt, we can do as much harm as good with that (except for delivering information, of course). Plus, the extra votes can have consequences the living seem to be unaware of. They don't know who has the extra vote, so they can't take it into account when they count the votes. We might cause them to have more double lynches, which I think is something we definitely don't want especially after yesterDay. Think outside the box.

(Gosh, now I know how the phantom must feel like all the time. And now I'm appreciating Rikae and Mac's genius even more, everything in this game seems to be a double-edged sword.)


edit: xed with Agan

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I think I've mentioned that I have a nasty cold? I was going to try to ignore it, but due to how insistent it got, I stopped being able to ignore it due to being curled up in a ball on the bathroom floor with a wad of tissues, trying to stop sneezing long enough to breathe.

So I took Nyquil. Which is about to combine with my other medications and knock me out. Not in a dangerous way, just in a way that means I will absolutely not be awake until tomorrow.

So here's hoping nobody needs me until I wake up again.

Have fun, kids. Celebrate being able to breathe through your noses. You tend to forget how nice that is...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Ah, because I've shown so many signs of being a cobbler, up to and including consistent behavior, insistence that nobody false reveal, insistence that we don't mess with the village's understanding of our communication system, rational votes, expressions of concern over the rationality of certain plans... Clearly my role in this game is to sow confusion, to revel in chaos, to otherwise be mean, naughty, and nasty.

As someone who has supported Not Being Evil from the very beginning of this game, I daresay you have nothing to fear of me swooping in to change my vote at the last minute.

Well, it was mainly the idea that as the few roles I know now seem to be so like too fitting - and as I know tp is a cobbler...

But it was not that much serious. Maybe the way you went being best friends with Agan is looking a bit opportunistic (the easy trust in a game is looking weird; but as such it would have not been much), but anyway. With saying exactly that, I was kind of hoping to discourage you from doing that last second change. I mean whatever your role, nice to be certain now that you won't do it. Had I not raised that discussion up - and if you were a cobbler - you could have played tricks there. Now you probably don't.

Playing it safe.

As I said, I don't know if we won anything here, but it's possible we did. And were you the cobbler we might have lost something.

Also, Seer, if you're that concerned I'm secretly a cobbler, and just doing a really awesome job of convincing everybody that I'm squeaky clean, why not just dream of me? Why not just prove to yourself, if nobody else, that I'm sneaky?

Ah, because you have the excuse of dreaming of Nessa. My bad.

I was actually wavering between Nessa, you and Lommy. I mean I get the exact roles and not only this not-a-wolf / wolf stuff. And I was curious.

But in the end I decided that I had not that much on thinking either of you as a cobbler and the chance of getting a wolf was heavier on the scales - so I picked Nessa.

And actually got the answer just a moment ago.



Nessa is an ordinary innocent.



PS. And all that reaction from Fea when I only said what she quoted there in #136? That wasn't anything too serious, just plain stating what we would know if... And said by a person everyone "knows" is not the seer but a cobbler?

If you were so sure that I'm the cobbler - and trusted that everyone esle trusted that as well, why bother?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Did you notice that? Well, I didn't, except an hour ago. I know this is no proof to any direction about me being the seer or that people may lose important lines from the bottom of a message when they read fast. But I hope you think of the possibility of those two things is not totally improbable.

Just for clarification, without the intent to say anything about Nogrod's role: That statement was generic. There are no clues in the narrations except the obvious ones.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Strike what I said. Evens. Not-wolf means evens.

I'm going back to sleep.

[Rikae]

Naturally, the Day has been extended here, as on the living thread.

[Aganzir]

A Little Green
Nerwen
wilwarin538
satansaloser2005
Boromir88
Anguirel

I believe these are our options for the double vote. I think everyone is free to choose whom they wish as long as one of them gets it. Personally I am not going to vote for Greenie (suspicious of her), Nerwen (just to be on the safe side) or Angu (because I have no idea what he's up to even though I liked his comments on Lottie, Glirdy & ed).

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I personally think a double toDay could be a very bad idea seeing as we're loosing Agan on top of whoever we lynch. --- I'm leaning more towards Nessa

I think this sounds very innocent. A baddie could have just gone along with phantom's plan, saying 'Yeah that's probably worth trying!' Even more so because his primary choice would have been Nessa whose role we don't know (instead of non-wolf Lommy).

Originally Posted by the phantom

Let's say he reveals both himself and his target.

And dies and brings back as little information as possible.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I completely forgot the fact that Agan hadn't voted either of the top two candidates, plus Shasta didn't vote, and those two were pretty well guaranteed to have the power

Bollocks. I don't believe that for a second.

As far as Nessa... We ought to debate tomorrow (or late today after the vote is decided) if we'd rather have our latest lynch checked or her, but that's not an issue for now.

It isn't? If you debate it tomorrow, then whom do we check tonight?

It occurs to me that the phantom has previously employed a cobbler impersonation tactic as a gifted, though (wilwa's Fairytale game, remember Fea?). That time he was kind of more obvious, though - now he's just suggesting flawed plans while saying he isn't actually suggesting them (instead he's making people waste their time pointing out the flaws in them).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I know Agan, she's going to be a drill sergeant

Hahaha!

Originally Posted by Boromir88

No. It's best if we tell the dead exactly what we want now. Leaving to decide this later in the day will only clutter up the lynch, and also make it easier for any baddies to mess up and put an end to Agan's plan.

It was this (and Boro's previous post) that made me feel better about him. Of course things might not be as simple as they seem, but a baddie gains little by saying this.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

There are lots of ways of doing it someone with numbers in name, one word name.... but for today odds and evens is just fine. Of course we don't have to vary the system at all but if pointing out we could stymies a wolftrick

I like this.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I am inclined now to suspect Elron more than Glirdan and Loslote more than Sauron.

Speaking of ed - her two previous games she's been very undecided, not really having opinions on people. This got her suspected last time, at least by me. She seems to have changed her style a great deal... I wonder if it's just because she has more experience now, or if she has fellows helping her out. Remember also the self-conscious first post after the first wolf-kill.

Okay the Downs went down just when I was going to post this. Comments on what's been going on here, then.

Originally Posted by BG

No, it's from past WW games. There's only three from this game and two only ask if I'm around! Besides it's not my role anymore.

I suppose there's no chance you would've been, say... the seer?
(Naturally assuming the mods think it's okay she says it.)

I still don't believe Nog. He looks better here than he did in the living thread (which doesn't mean much, though), but it's the living thread that really matters. However I'm not going to keep arguing with him unless I see a reason to because that serves no purpose.

Originally Posted by Nog

If you just vote for someone you trust now (well 24 hours fom now), you have no idea whether that vote decides a doublelynch or the death of your other "most innocent" player!

We wouldn't know that even if there was no plan. If we're afraid of influencing the lynch, no one should vote at all.

Originally Posted by Nog

How about we decided that no one else votes for the extravote but Shasta whom we know is a goodie and (hopefully) can be around at the DL - trying to fit his vote with both the "system of evens and unevens" and doing his best to do what we - well you as you don't trust me - want him to.

Problems. There's no way we can be sure someone is not a cobbler, and if we agree only one person votes, the cobblers can easily mess it up. Plus what happens if Shasta isn't around at the deadline like happened on my last day with the living?

Originally Posted by Fea

Have fun, kids. Celebrate being able to breathe through your noses. You tend to forget how nice that is...

Aww get well soon. *nuzzles*

Now, let me think about the double voting thing.
The wolves know Lommy was not one, therefore they know either Green, Nerwen, wilwa, sally, Boro or Angu is getting the extra vote. They are probably looking at whom most people (especially I) suspected or found innocent, and it's possible they're weighing their vote with that in mind. Therefore it might be good to give it to someone unexpected... But while I don't think us Finns (well, Nog excluded ) should refrain from voting just because we're most likely not around at the deadline, it might usually be a good idea to spread the votes and leave it up to our American friends to decide who gets it. On the other hand, I'm uncomfortable with this because we have no idea how many cobblers we have here.