Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Rikae]

Voting BG would reveal her current wolf/non-wolf status.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I did say she is Beren from the get-go quite openly and never claimed she was Lúthien.

Because I said I was Beren, and what reason would an innocent have to lie? I so regret not being able to predict Nog's show... if I had said I was Lúthien, we wouldn't have to go through this now.
Remember I revealed before Nog. Before that, he had no clue I was Beren. If he had had, he would have let me know - instead he told me off for not seeing his "hints", but there were no hints whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

although it would have required quite a bold act and a lot of luck to hit it right with Agan on D1 (remember that to a cobbler her role would have been a shot in the dark).

It would require luck to say I was innocent? No. That was more likely than not, anyway (and if I had been a wolf, it would have served your cobbler purposes just as well because it would have led people to suspect me). You took pains to leave a coded seer hint but not a hint about my true role (or the phantom's) which was the only thing that would have given your reveal credibility.

Nog is not stupid. It's not difficult to drop a gifted hint or two here and there - BUT HE DID NOTHING THAT WOULD HAVE PROVED HE KNEW MORE THAN THE REST OF US. Because he didn't.

He is not the seer. Repeat: he is not the seer. After being lynched as a cobbler there were two things he could do: give up and be totally useless, or try to keep his show up. He chose the latter. He's acting well but I don't care how good his arguments are, he's lying blatantly.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I promise 100% accuracy on my dreams. I will not err with them like a cobbler eventually would.

Hahaha.
Shasta and I were the only problem you might have had but that won't cause you any trouble, thanks to the wolves. The hunter's and the ranger's roles will be more or less obvious anyway. When a wolf or a cobbler dies and you call them innocent, they will know you for what you are and back you up. Sorry Nogs but I see through this.

Hey I came up with something...

TO THE HUNTER AND HER VICTIM: when you die, whichever posts here first should say she was the hunter. The other will support her claim. Nog will dream of the other and tell her role. Let's see who got it right. (That can't prove he's the seer because he has a 50/50 chance of hitting it right, but it might at least prove he's lying).

This is all I'm going to say about Nogrod. I think we all should just ignore him because while making long posts with lots of arguments for his innocence, he keeps distracting us. Good job, cobbler.
(As an aside, in the nearly impossible case Nog really is the seer, I expect to never hear any comments about Shasta getting himself killed as a gifted.)

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I am too, but since we have no way to tell the live 'uns that we've changed the plan, we can't go ahead and change the plan.

Exactly. I know it was me who made the agreement with the village on behalf of us all, but being a known innocent I think I had the right to do it. I said we should check the first person to reach the highest number because it's unlikelier the baddies would intentionally push one of their own to be double lynched although I know it can happen by accident.

I just hope the village tells us what we should do with Nessa & tomorrow's lynch...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I know it was me who made the agreement with the village on behalf of us all, but being a known innocent I think I had the right to do it. I said we should check the first person to reach the highest number because it's unlikelier the baddies would intentionally push one of their own to be double lynched although I know it can happen by accident.

I just hope the village tells us what we should do with Nessa & tomorrow's lynch...

As you can see from before you got here, I was clearly agreeing with you and yelling silently at the folk who couldn't hear me, seeing if I could speak mind to mind to get them to see that it's a solid plan.

And yeah, I agree. I hope somebody in the village is sensible enough to notice that there are some problems here in terms of who to talk about.

[Aganzir]

At the moment I trust Lommy about as little as I trust the phantom.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What if we just abstained from extra-voting? --- What do we gain by giving anyone an extra vote? --- check whoever we judge is the most fruitful one to check, refrain from all extra-vote voting (which can even be harmful) and wait for Glorfy to come here

No. I thought about that too but it'd be much more harmful than accidentally giving the extra vote for a baddie. The village would be blind till Glorfy gets here, and because we can't affect the outcome of the game from here, there will be no "fruitful checks" for us. I for one am not going to let the village down.

That suggestion makes me feel three times worse about Lommy than I ever felt when she was still alive.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

As you can see from before you got here, I was clearly agreeing with you and yelling silently at the folk who couldn't hear me

*snuggles Fea*

[Thinlómien]

Ah I feel so much like picking a fight with Agan because she's playing with such double standards but then again I think I know better than to use my energy attacking someone I know is innocent.

Anyhow, please reread what you just posted, and think whether you make sense:

No. I thought about that too but it'd be much more harmful than accidentally giving the extra vote for a baddie. The village would be blind till Glorfy gets here, and because we can't affect the outcome of the game from here, there will be no "fruitful checks" for us. I for one am not going to let the village down.

That suggestion makes me feel three times worse about Lommy than I ever felt when she was still alive.

You had the same idea yet the fact that I came up with it makes me seem suspicious?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We might cause them to have more double lynches

Or we might prevent double lynches.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You had the same idea yet the fact that I came up with it makes me seem suspicious?

I toyed with the idea but decided against it because it would do more harm than good. You suggested it. That's the difference between us.

[Aganzir]

Rikae & Mac: I'm going to laugh so hard if you made every member of Clan Nogrod a cobbler!

[Thinlómien]

Or we might prevent double lynches.

That's true, but given that everybody in the village except for the three cobblers (ergo a vast majority) works in order to prevent them, it's more likely we f it up for them than that we save the day. Call me a pessimist, but I think you could even prove that mathematically.

I toyed with the idea but decided against it because it would do more harm than good. You suggested it. That's the difference between us.

Yes, because I'm still not convinced it'd do more harm than good. And I wanted to throw it for you to think about instead of considering all the points inside my heads. Generally you see better with more eyes and especially as this thread mostly has people I trust (you, Shasta, Fea) talking actively, I couldn't see any harm in thinking aloud. So no need to trash me for it.


edit: xed with Agan

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

TO THE HUNTER AND HER VICTIM: when you die, whichever posts here first should say she was the hunter. The other will support her claim. Nog will dream of the other and tell her role. Let's see who got it right. (That can't prove he's the seer because he has a 50/50 chance of hitting it right, but it might at least prove he's lying).

Good, except that given that narration indicated your and Shasta's roles quite clearly, it would be only logical if it indicated those of the hunter and whoever was hunted. Also, the plan does not work if the hunter is lynched. So I wouldn't be too hopeful about being able to bust Nogrod. We just have to wait for another seer and let's hope one won't appear in a while.

And agreed about the village hopefully being smart and reaching conclusions instead of just coming up ideas and leaving them hanging in the air.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'll do one more of these (this seems to be "the thread of repetiton") as I see Agan making a totally dismissive case. And I hope at least you Agan read this. You others might do well to do it as well though.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because I said I was Beren, and what reason would an innocent have to lie? I so regret not being able to predict Nog's show... if I had said I was Lúthien, we wouldn't have to go through this now.
Remember I revealed before Nog. Before that, he had no clue I was Beren. If he had had, he would have let me know - instead he told me off for not seeing his "hints", but there were no hints whatsoever.

I've had hard times to go back to the thread to read it closely for D2 from pure embarrassment. And I actually mean it. But I did go there to check yesterday about the order of the revelations as I wasn't myself sure how it went. And I found you saying you two were lovers and then me stating you were Beren.

I went there back again now (oh, the pain...) and yes I agree, you did have that line after the love poem (which I actually remember you did) where you congrated the wolves for killing Lúthien. I should have noticed that yesterday. And the odd part is that I have no way of explaining why I didn't, even if I was looking for which one of us first said and what (maybe it was because getting to that post I recognized the poem and just thought: "okay, here's the post she reveals she was Shasta's lover"?).

Then again, I only realised a moment ago - looking back to this thread that Mac actually ended the "narration" for this Night to begin, with:

Originally Posted by Mac

It is now Night 4. You may choose which one of you shall be revealed as wolf or not. If your role allows you to do something else at Night, too... do so.

Did you notice that? Well, I didn't, except an hour ago. I know this is no proof to any direction about me being the seer or that people may lose important lines from the bottom of a message when they read fast. But I hope you think of the possibility of those two things is not totally improbable.

It would require luck to say I was innocent? No. That was more likely than not, anyway (and if I had been a wolf, it would have served your cobbler purposes just as well because it would have led people to suspect me). You took pains to leave a coded seer hint but not a hint about my true role (or the phantom's) which was the only thing that would have given your reveal credibility.

I think I already said that getting a lover as the first dream was the worst possible one to have. I did think of leaving something in a code of some sorts about you being Beren and not just an innocent but it felt pretty hard - and dangerous. Actually, knowing that if you got killed then someone else would die as well, I was strongly considering leaving no hints at all on D1.

But thinking of the totally freaked out way this game would work I decided still to leave something (hence my putting you Agan as the only one in the inocent tally) to show on D6 or something. Later on D1 I felt the need to add that coded "I'm the seer" message followed with the sentence stating that I'm positive about your innocence. And I was afraid even that was too much to say.

Nog is not stupid. It's not difficult to drop a gifted hint or two here and there - BUT HE DID NOTHING THAT WOULD HAVE PROVED HE KNEW MORE THAN THE REST OF US. Because he didn't.

It is not difficult, in away, if you can be proven right afterwards or if you have any other dream than lovers who both are goodies. One just doesn't want to make that.

If you go back to your post where you revealed you were Shasta's lover, you can see I change my play on you immediately. Before that when you suspected me I said something along the lines "are you trying to make me suspect you, no deal done" - trying to let you understand I'm not going to go for you for a reason. But after that I started sying I was wondering whether I had read you wrong etc. detaching myself from any real knowledge on your role to save my seership.

But what happened: led by your example I started gathering a tremendous amount of suspicion (and at that time I hadn't been playing that stupidly or abrasively) and as the clock ticked on in to the wee hours I started realising you guys were going to lynch me and that the village was losing their seer - and with the aid of tiredness, panic and a few glasses of wine too much the disaster was wowen.

It's clear I was not in any conscious state of mind on the last hour. If you wish to check, see the first posts I made here. Okay, please don't (I haven't have the nerve to reread them ever since), but if you have to... Well, if it takes that to believe me and get our act straight here, then go and read them.

He is not the seer. Repeat: he is not the seer.

Well, I am. Sadly so. Repeat: Well, I am. Sadly so.

After being lynched as a cobbler there were two things he could do: give up and be totally useless, or try to keep his show up. He chose the latter. He's acting well but I don't care how good his arguments are, he's lying blatantly.

After being lynched as the seer I had two options: to give up or try to fight for it. I have kind of taken the middle route here s to begin with. If I think there's even a minute chance someone would listen to me, I'd do my best in here but if I will be totally ignored with a majority decision, then who cares?

We're still hanging around that delicate balance. But as long as people say "don't listen to him" I find it hard to really delve into the living-thread and start working for hours to find the culprits. From what I know of myself though, I'll probably stand up and start really fighting for the village in the end, whatever you say of it.

But getting into that heavily involved mood isn't exactly helped with comments which say that: "I don't care how good his arguments are, he's lying blatantly!"

When a wolf or a cobbler dies and you call them innocent, they will know you for what you are and back you up. Sorry Nogs but I see through this.

Nope. I'll call a cobbler a cobbler and a wolf a wolf - and they will heavily disagree. The ordinary innocents will know what I'm doing though.

There's no way to say which roles are coming here, so there's no way in telling how effective that will be.

TO THE HUNTER AND HER VICTIM: when you die, whichever posts here first should say she was the hunter. The other will support her claim. Nog will dream of the other and tell her role. Let's see who got it right. (That can't prove he's the seer because he has a 50/50 chance of hitting it right, but it might at least prove he's lying).

I'd be ready to take a challenge of that kind any time and can promise you 100% right answer. But with the illogical hunter (kills whoever is her/his target) it's hard to see the evidence of that.

This is all I'm going to say about Nogrod. I think we all should just ignore him because while making long posts with lots of arguments for his innocence, he keeps distracting us.

You disregard my views on your own peril, I must say. Don't tell me afterwards I didn't say that.

But I'll promise to come up with this issue only when I think I need to do that...