WW LXXXVII - The Valley Forge

[Finduilas]

Hm. I'm feeling terribly out of this game, I've been too quiet. Let's see if I can fix that.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm curious to hear Finduilas's explanation for her vote on me. At the time, tp was in the lead with three votes, and Bom had two. Could a newbie-Innocent who was merely pressed for time not choose between one of them? Or was it a safe throwaway by a newbie wolf?

Zil, my vote for you was a case of... indecision (with a smidgen of time pressure too). I wanted to vote for both TP and Bom, but I dislike killing people on the first day (sorry, always have, I'll show more backbone toDay), so I voted for someone who had no votes, and who had not particularly struck me as a definite innocent. So I haven't decided on you yet, but that's why I voted for you. Actually, considering your retraction vote from Phantom (who'm I currently think is "innocent", though most other players seem to have termed him as evil, Forge member or not...) to Bom, I think I might trust you...

Originally Posted by Eruhen

Alsø alsø wik, the longer the KD has to give hints to the NWD, the better idea the NWD has of who's in the Forge and who isn't. The Forgers obviously aren't going to attack their own, so whatever names the KD gives to the NWD are known innocents. So, between the two of them, the KD and NWD work as a pseudo-Seer. Benefit to keeping both of them around as long as possible.

I like this thinking. Pity the Watch Dwarf died...

Alright, that's all for now. I will do my utmostest to be more active tomorrow (but still toDay).

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Finduilas

Zil, my vote for you was a case of... indecision (with a smidgen of time pressure too). I wanted to vote for both TP and Bom, but I dislike killing people on the first day (sorry, always have, I'll show more backbone toDay), so I voted for someone who had no votes, and who had not particularly struck me as a definite innocent. So I haven't decided on you yet, but that's why I voted for you.

Since you remind me of myself last game, where ordo!me chose to neither save or to condemn a gifted but rather to throw away my vote, I won't yell "wolf!" at that...

Originally Posted by Findy

...Phantom (who'm I currently think is "innocent", though most other players seem to have termed him as evil, Forge member or not...)

But he is! Ask anyone, and they'll tell you that he's an evil genius.

Now, bedtime. Really. Night, all!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I do think we can learn something from Bom's posts. Can we be sure he wasn't the KD? I don't think our moddess ever answered the question about the KD's role being revealed, right? That wouldput Phantom and Cabbie in a bad light (fake KD bluff attempt?) and whoever went after Bom, while a truly evil Bom would do the opposite.
I'd love to know for sure, well, how much we know. Moddess?

The narration has the "Galin Ironfist" character as still around, so I'd say not (unless that's a smokescreen, or something).

Funny thing is, Bom made some darned strange comments yesterDay, even for him– could he have been trying to pose as the KD? The obvious reason would be to throw the Sweetheart and Watchdwarf off– but would that be worth the risk of being suspected by his own packmates? Or is this just a case of Bom acting weird whatever his role?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Just as a point of interest, Bom, Gal55, Eruhen, Inzil, and Nerwen seem to think of the baddies as Werewolves (judging from their wording here and there) even though the baddies in this village are not Werewolves.

Others, such as Finduilas, Boro, and I, seem to make a point of calling the baddies what they are- Forge members or bad dwarves etc.

I have no idea if that means anything at all.

...How pedantic the player is? I hadn't thought about it, actually, but I suppose I've been calling them "wolves" out of a mixture of habit and convenience. I'm probably going to keep on with it too. This isn't a compulsory RP-ing game, phantom.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Let's see. I'm feeling pretty good about Eruhen, since she tied Bom with tp.

"He", not "she". Just letting you know.

[McCaber]

Well, it looks like I'll have to vote now. I feel pretty confident, nonetheless.

++Galadriel55
for trying to stop a lynch of the Forge-ite Bom Tombadillo, and coming close to succeeding.

EDIT: crossed with tp

[the phantom]

All righty- here's the voting from yesterday.

Phantom++Pitch
Boro++Sally
Inzil++Phantom
Gal55++Phantom (2)
Bom++Phantom (3)
Pitch++Bom
Mith++Bom (2)
Findu++Inzil
Eruhen++Bom (3)
*Inzil--Phantom (2)*
Inzil++Bom (4)
Wilwa++Bom (5)
*Boro--Sally (0)*
Boro++Bom (6)

Now, as I was driving home thinking about what to post, it hit me- I've been thinking of voting ALL WRONG! Now, I haven't had time to be terribly thorough with reading, but if I recall correctly I don't think anyone has pointed out something very very important which flies in the face of common voting logic that has been voiced thus far.

What am I getting at?

It is entirely possible that this particular group of baddies is more likely than any Werewolf pack to purposefully try and lynch one another during the day!!

Now duh, of course we knew the KD was working against them, but what about the others? All they know is that THEY are not the traitor, where as every one of their fellows is potentially a double agent.

So, without a Seer or Hunter to fear, it seems to me that the logical play would be to kill the other Forge members. And in fact accusing all three of your fellow members might be a smart play as it would make them extremely unlikely to turn against you, as they might fear that you are the KD and killing you would expose them.

But of course I just read Foley's ruling and it appears we won't be informed about the KD any more, so the position has changed somewhat. Going after all of your fellows together isn't so smart any more, but it's still perfectly acceptable to try and lynch one. And if you are questioned about it at night, the defense is "I thought he might be the KD".

So, what that means is this- people that saved an innocent Phantom by voting for a guilty Bom cannot be given the usual weight in the innocence column.

All right- what do the rest of you think? If I was a Forge member I'd probably kill all the others and win it by myself.

(edit: vote tally)

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by the phantom

It is entirely possible that this particular group of baddies is more likely than any Werewolf pack to purposefully try and lynch one another during the day!!

Now, I don't really know about this. It seems to me that even if there's a traitor among their ranks, every conspirator the Forge loses makes their overall victory that much harder. Every day they don't lynch an innocent is a day that slows them down. That, and Bom really didn't seem to give any suspicion of being the KD. In a touch-and-go thing like that, I think they'd want to get an innocent out of here rather than someone who *might* be working against them.

But I could just naturally be a team player, even in a hypothetical situation like that.

[the phantom]

I understand what you're saying, McCaber- in normal conditions I NEVER kill my packmates. It's practically my number one rule as a baddie. But in this game one of your mates is against you and so long as he is alive you're very vulnerable. The traitor can take down the entire Forge, particularly if he finds his sweetheart and the both of them are trying to lynch the same people during the day (the other people in the village would definitely catch on if KD & Sweetheart do a joint attack, and it wouldn't count as revealing either because there'd be no way for a common player to know which is which- the two of them would basically be unstoppable).

May as well try to make it alone, especially if you're someone like me that believes you will pull it off. Like I said- no Seer to be scared of, so no reason for a forceful and active player to be nervous if he thinks he can influence the vote enough to stay alive each day.

(x-post Nerwen & Boro)

[the phantom]

I would love to do a reread of yesterday with the dwarf-eat-dwarf mentality in mind, but I'm too tired. I'll be around tomorrow.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Hmm I think Wilwa was a lucky strike on balance. From my notes she posted little and mainly discussed the game set up rather than individuals.Though her vote was on the money her reasons were more save Phantom than kill Bom.though she did remind us of the special instructions but was that enought to say "Lynch me I'm gifted" to the forge - it seems not to have alerted the KD unless Wilwa went her own way.

This seems likely to me– nothing she said seems like an obvious Ranger-hint. (Ahem! I'm afraid can't help recalling here a Mithwolf some games back explaining just why the pack killed Shasta...)

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

So in ch that case why did you jump straight in to complying with it?

And McCaber says this in reply:

Because if it WAS allowed to fly, it'd be a great way to get information out. I agreed with it, even though I didn't know if our Moddess Goddess would let it.

Um... you know, McCaber, no offence, but I'm not sure that's even an answer. Mith asked you why you jumped straight in without knowing if the plan would be allowed, and you said, "Yes, I did."

Originally Posted by Mith

Galadriel worries me a lot. I may be a poor judge because she was my abandoned cub the one and only time I have played with her but I have filled twice as much paper on her but it is a bit careful. Not much original - she agrees with Nerwen a bit, says Boro's predicitions is coming true. She does pick up on Eruhen's odd "nothing to add" in the face of TP's plan and points out that the plan is a de facto reveal - but seems to be looking for a way round it. On the less original side there are vote counts within 4 posts of each other, a list that draws no real conclusions - Wilwa and Pitch seem more innocent. Sort of stuff that makes a player look diligent but doesn't actually commit them - and all the misguided panic over the deadline- taking up Nogrod's cyber sheepdog role. Then the last minute attack on the bandwaggon.. just seemed it might be a fausse-naive bluff....

She's an enigma to me. Honestly, her opposition to the Bom-waggon really doesn't look that suspicious. I mean, if you were an ordo who suspected phantom, and then there was a last-minute push to lynch an "easy target" instead– you might well think you were seeing an evil bandwaggon. On the other hand, as you say, she posted much and said little yesterDay, and toDay her defence of Rikae against Pitch's "case" seems over-the-top– perhaps a "white knight" act? (Now, if he had really been going after Rikae it would be different– but I don't think he was.)

EDIT: Fixed bolding; clarification

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I understand what you're saying, McCaber- in normal conditions I NEVER kill my packmates. It's practically my number one rule as a baddie. But in this game one of your mates is against you and so long as he is alive you're very vulnerable. The traitor can take down the entire Forge, particularly if he finds his sweetheart and the both of them are trying to lynch the same people during the day (the other people in the village would definitely catch on if KD & Sweetheart do a joint attack, and it wouldn't count as revealing either because there'd be no way for a common player to know which is which- the two of them would basically be unstoppable).

Don't know about that bit– Folwren was explicit that "almost-reveals" would count as reveals– it was discussed on the Admin thread.

Originally Posted by phantom

May as well try to make it alone, especially if you're someone like me that believes you will pull it off. Like I said- no Seer to be scared of, so no reason for a forceful and active player to be nervous if he thinks he can influence the vote enough to stay alive each day.

While this is basically a "good votes are bad votes" argument, it does make sense in this particular situation.

However, phantom, I'm pretty sure you're the only person Bomwolf accused, so....?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Now, as I was driving home thinking about what to post, it hit me- I've been thinking of voting ALL WRONG! Now, I haven't had time to be terribly thorough with reading, but if I recall correctly I don't think anyone has pointed out something very very important which flies in the face of common voting logic that has been voiced thus far.

What am I getting at?

It is entirely possible that this particular group of baddies is more likely than any Werewolf pack to purposefully try and lynch one another during the day!!

Now duh, of course we knew the KD was working against them, but what about the others? All they know is that THEY are not the traitor, where as every one of their fellows is potentially a double agent.

So, without a Seer or Hunter to fear, it seems to me that the logical play would be to kill the other Forge members. And in fact accusing all three of your fellow members might be a smart play as it would make them extremely unlikely to turn against you, as they might fear that you are the KD and killing you would expose them.

But of course I just read Foley's ruling and it appears we won't be informed about the KD any more, so the position has changed somewhat. Going after all of your fellows together isn't so smart any more, but it's still perfectly acceptable to try and lynch one. And if you are questioned about it at night, the defense is "I thought he might be the KD".

So, what that means is this- people that saved an innocent Phantom by voting for a guilty Bom cannot be given the usual weight in the innocence column.

All right- what do the rest of you think? If I was a Forge member I'd probably kill all the others and win it by myself.

Believe it or not, I was just about to make this same point– it's been a nagging back-of-the-mind thing with me for a while, but I hadn't quite got it into focus. Yes. The wolf tactics (or Forge-member tactics, if that makes you feel better) are going to be completely different from normal. Probably anyhow– you do have to bear in mind that we have a number of inexperienced players.

EDIT:X'd with McCaber.

[Nerwen]

Also, it does depend a lot on the personality of the wolves– how ruthless, how confident at being able to win alone, etc. So I wouldn't say for certain that the Forge members would go all out to kill each other, only that they might.