WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.

Ye-es– but that's not what Nog was talking about, as is pretty clear from the subsequent posting.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and I just want this noted, before I say anything else: my connection was playing up like crazy the last few hours, and stopped me from saying all I'd have liked. Or I would have commented more on the folly, in this game, of lynching someone to remove a source of distraction/controversy– cf. my treasure's "we pretty much have to know what she is". I cannot say it's necessarily a sign of guilt, though, since G55 herself made the same argument. Still, I can't say I like it.

Now, what to make of Nogrod's reaction at the start of toDay? He must have honestly not registered Glirdan's role– a quite understandable mistake, given that a.) it wasn't mentioned in the narration, b.) there'd been no reason to suspect him and c.) punitive modfires of special roles are almost unheard-of.

From then on, I'm not sure. A wolf might have thought he saw the chance for a quick victory, provided he, his buddies and the cobbler could get it together, but been unwilling to come right out in case something went amiss. Or an innocent might well have just panicked.

[Nerwen]

Other headache-inducers:

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

Kath at #196 (I'm working backwards here) has some interesting theories about why Lommy might have been killed, and some good comments on living players– but again, this includes a completely out-of-context reference of Agan's "accusation" of me, which was actually clearly a joke. (Drawing a longbow, I suppose it might have been preparation for a false reveal– but if that's why Kath mentions, she doesn't say so.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't really know what to make of Nog's attitude at the start of the day, what with missing Glirdan's role and all. Given how doom and gloom he was, he looks like an innocent who's just given up - but then there's the whole "what if he was just doing that on purpose to make me think that?" argument. I don't think I really want to draw any conclusions from that, specifically.

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, so Glirdan, in fact, did not say anything almost at all, basically only one of his posts being somewhat relevant, and that mentioning G55 in totally ambiguous way and also Nog in slightly defensive way, but that's it. Basically a non-appearing Cobbler.

Pretty much this. I feel bad for Kitanna. I do, however, remember him going a bit after G55 yesterday rather early, which might make it more likely that someone he thought was a wolf was on that bandwagon early. That might be the first place I look once I've caught up with today.

Originally Posted by Legate

Summa summarum - the people she suspected are the ones I find rather suspicious too, so I wouldn't be too surprised about that the motive for her death might have been, apart from what I suggested above, simply that she was suspecting a Wolf, or even several Wolves. However that kind of reasoning has not been very common among Wolves lately, I think (or at least when I was last playing), and also, she certainly wasn't the only one who suspected those people. Again, if the reason was the opposite and the WWs wanted to frame somebody up, this is rather an extensive list, so not sure if that would work (if she suspected heavily just one person, fine, I could understand that). I have not been able to find anything that would point to her looking like a Ranger in her posts, which is a motive I would have expected from the WWs the most. Maybe the WWs just feared her being a sharp player and wanted to get rid of her, then. I would bet something between that, a Wolf on the list and/or the "no track in the voting list" idea I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't put that past Agan, for instance, to get rid of Lommy in such a manner (since she just briefly dropped suspecting her at that point, so there won't be immediate connection between them), of course we still have the full amount of Wolves, the whole pack needed a decisive motivation.

I've read and re-read this, and the only thing it seems to me you're actually saying here is that the Lommy kill probably wasn't done to frame anyone, which is fairly obvious, isn't it? She wasn't being suspected really at all (I mentioned a few things yesterday, but if I recall correctly I'm the only one that did.)

Originally Posted by Nog

How nicely you manage to get under the skin of a possible wolf-train of thought!

G55 did the same. Look how that turned out.

Originally Posted by Menel

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.

I saw you mention later that Nog fits this description, but I seem to recall Sally doing a bit of the same. I'll go back and look here in a little while.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'd also like everyone to remember that if two innocents vote for a different innocent, the wolves are free to do as they please with the lynch.

It's actually one, provided the wolves pile on their votes first. That's rather more scary, I think.

Originally Posted by Kath

Voted sally but looks like she's getting sure about Nog and Agan being evil.

Re: Lommy. If that's so, though, why follow Agan's vote?

Originally Posted by Agan

What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, and I just want this noted, before I say anything else: my connection was playing up like crazy the last few hours, and stopped me from saying all I'd have liked. Or I would have commented more on the folly, in this game, of lynching someone to remove a source of distraction/controversy– cf. my treasure's "we pretty much have to know what she is". I cannot say it's necessarily a sign of guilt, though, since G55 herself made the same argument. Still, I can't say I like it.

True enough, my pearl, but (at least in my case) the G55 vote wasn't exclusively to get rid of a source of distraction. There were legitimate reasons to suspect G55 yesterday, and knowing her role shed light on several people (most notably Nog and Sally for their day 1 votes.)

[Nerwen]

Well, well, it seems to be The Nerwen Show, Starring Nerwen at present, doesn't it?

Look, I'll tell you what's making me somewhat uneasy abut Nog right now– it's not, of course, that he made a mistake, nor is it that that he opened the Day by rushing in to ask about the tiebreaker rule. It's that he feels the need to offer, twice, a fairly elaborate explanation of *why* he did so:

#175. (In response to Sally at #173.)

Originally Posted by Nog

Oops... I'm so used to bad news I had totally ignored that Glirdy was the cobbler (from a neutral POV: oh what a role wasted there...).

Well, that changes things.

Hah, I was already entertaining the idea of "revealing" myself as the cobbler and trying to lure the wolves or/and the cobbler into the open - but the tie-votes -ruling kind of destroyed the idea. Good I didn't do that. It would have looked pretty odd to reveal oneself as a dead-person's role.

#183 (Extract from mid-length post in response to Legate at #181.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

But yes, that is redundant now.

What I mean is, that's going to lot of trouble merely to justify having asked this:

#170.

Originally Posted by Nog

What was the final ruling about two people tied in votes? Double-lynch, no-lynch, first to gain votes, last to gain...?

It is quite important.

Also, the sequence of reactions he gives at #175 seems rather off, doesn't it? You all see what I'm talking about, right? (To be fair, though– an innocent Nog would know he'd come under fair heavy suspicion toDay, and as we saw yesterDay, nervous innocents can tie themselves in some serious knots.)

Note: as this goes to press, I see my one and only has posted, but i haven't read it yet.

EDIT:word left out.

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

If I had, I wouldn't have gone after Nogrod today. I have been a wolf before and seen reminders from other wolves during daytime. Inzil really looked like he was doing the same.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by my turtledove

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

I think it's her use of the word "find" that Agan is querying there, though. (And there's also what I said, that it's been normal procedure to lynch cobbler-suspects for some time anyway.)

Originally Posted by Menel

If I had, I wouldn't have gone after Nogrod today. I have been a wolf before and seen reminders from other wolves during daytime. Inzil really looked like he was doing the same.

What, you've never heard of "wolf-on-wolf"?!

[Meneltarmacil]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I saw you mention later that Nog fits this description, but I seem to recall Sally doing a bit of the same. I'll go back and look here in a little while.

Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

Because he's come under more suspicion than most, of course. He knows it, too– hence, I think, the jittery over-explaining of his opening post that he's been doing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?



Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

I'm aware, Menel. I wasn't saying anything against you, merely noting that Sally also fit the parameters you'd laid down, in my opinion.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!!

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Actually, there's no reason anyone should be written off at this stage. For instance, Kath looks innocent for meta-reasons (not knowing who had been lynched on Day One)– but a Kathwolf could have been too busy either to check the narration, or talk to her packmates on Night Two.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

Are you talking about the one you quoted earlier? What bugged me about it was that sally seemed to be downplaying the importance of lynching a wolf today - although granted, the situation wasn't as serious as Nog made it seem.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Given how doom and gloom he was, he looks like an innocent who's just given up - but then there's the whole "what if he was just doing that on purpose to make me think that?" argument. I don't think I really want to draw any conclusions from that, specifically.

Me neither.

It's actually one, provided the wolves pile on their votes first. That's rather more scary, I think.

True. However, it would require every wolf to be here at the same time, otherwise it might go wrong. And there's still the ranger.
Anyway, so far (I think) only Legate and Kath have voted. I hope either Nog or one of them is a wolf... But then, the wolves can't afford to make any too risky moves yet because the situation will soon turn against them if the ranger makes a save.

Re: Lommy. If that's so, though, why follow Agan's vote?

Ditto to that.

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?

I have to leave very soon and I won't be back before deadline. I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?
edit: apparently at least Nerwen.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Actually, there's no reason anyone should be written off at this stage. For instance, Kath looks innocent for meta-reasons (not knowing who had been lynched on Day One)– but a Kathwolf could have been too busy either to check the narration, or talk to her packmates on Night Two.

My thoughts exactly. If she's busy during the days, there's no reason to assume she'd have any more time at night.

I'm still entertaining the possibility Menel could be a wolf as well (or basically anyone), but sally and Legate are the ones I'm the most worried about.

[Aganzir]

Okay, I've got to go.

++SALLY

I really really hope to lynch her today.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?

Suits me.

We need to be careful in general though, as the more we spread the vote the more influental the wolf-votes become. And I know this isn't exactly making my own position easier, but one has to consider that - while hoping that at least one of thos who already voted was a wolf, preferable both - even if that sounds a bit silly as certainly the wolves wouldn't like to spread their votes when this near victory.

EDIT: X'd with Agan

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I'm having yet another "What?" -feeling... bah. Nevermind.

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally

So three votes and three vote-receivers.

Yes the ranger may give us one more Day if we get it wrong toDay, but that's a chance of 1/6 (as the ranger may also protect a wolf) - and to that must be added the possibility that the ranger is lynched, which actually isn't 1/8 but nearer 1/4 because the wolves can more or less sway the vote away from themselves, especially now as we have already three different candidates who have been voted.

That said, I must admit to some pessimism at the point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Ah, but my dewdrop, you'll note I also voted G55 Day 1.

Originally Posted by Agan

Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?

Yes, I see what you mean now. You were objecting to Sally saying we could "find" the cobbler. Still, though, it isn't like the innocents aren't looking for the cobbler just like they're looking for the wolves, even if the wolves are a higher priority.

I'm not necessarily opposed to lynching Sally, but Legate I haven't really given a fair read to - I notice he and Nog have been going at it for most of the day (what there's been of it) and I still can't quite shake the feeling that Nog is up to something.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

An interesting note - since Legate's vote for Nog, everyone has posted. Since Kath's vote for Agan, everyone but Sally and Legate has posted.

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

One possibility, obviously, is that the votes were made by wolves (both examples in this case are singular - I'm not saying both Kath and Legate are wolves together.)

In fact, if we look at it that way, it looks doubly bad for Legate - both in that his vote for Nog was not jumped on and that he hasn't himself been around to jump on Kath's for Agan. But then, would a wolf want to vote so early in a situation like this?

In Kath's case, she didn't vote with Legate, voting Agan instead. I'm having a hard time drawing conclusions from this, though - mostly because I don't really have much to go on with her one way or the other.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

Well, as has been speculated, there is the (minor) chance the ranger denies their Night-kill and thus, if they come out in the open toDay, we have 4-3 majority toMorrow... So maybe that is the reason they are careful not to show themselves that openly.

The happier reason would be that at least one wolf has already been forced to vote by RL reasons and thus they haven't that much of a leeway at the moment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

An interesting note - since Legate's vote for Nog, everyone has posted. Since Kath's vote for Agan, everyone but Sally and Legate has posted.

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

One possibility, obviously, is that the votes were made by wolves (both examples in this case are singular - I'm not saying both Kath and Legate are wolves together.)

Or made *on* wolves. Or a combination.

Or no wolves have voted yet, and Shastawolf and Nogwolf are just waiting for their comrade, Sallywolf, to arrive...

EDIT:X'd with Nog
EDIT2: Or Menelwolf, whatever.

[Nerwen]

You know, I'm quite curious to find out whether any of this "Oh noes! The wolves just have to do x and y and z" talk is actually coming from the wolves.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Or made *on* wolves. Or a combination.

Or no wolves have voted yet, and Shastawolf and Nogwolf are just waiting for their comrade, Sallywolf, to arrive...

EDIT:X'd with Nog
EDIT2: Or Menelwolf, whatever.

Well, clearly, you, myself, and Nogwolf should probably decide whether to vote Agan or Sally and finish up this charade.

[Nogrod]

In any case, all innocent votes on other innocents are things they look for, and which help them play it out toDay. Also, in case we would be getting it right, they would do what needs to be done to divert the vote from one of them to one of us as they are so near victory.

That actually brings forth an interesting idea. If there is (and hopefully there is) at least one wolf among those already voted they would object to lynching her and tried to support someone else.

So let's dare them and see what happens?

So how about we lynch Sally? Do you see merit in lynching Agan or me instead?

Haha... you mindreader you...

Originally Posted by Shastawolf

Well, clearly, you, myself, and Nogwolf should probably decide whether to vote Agan or Sally and finish up this charade.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I'm not sure I want to add another candidate at this late stage, so it's probably between Sally, Nog, and Agan for me.

I'm fairly trusting of Agan at this point, so I doubt it'll be her.

There have been points made against both Sally and Nog - but since my most recent post, I probably feel worst about Legate, and all the back-and-forth he's been doing with Nog takes on new meaning in that light.

I don't know if I'll laugh or cry if it turns out Legate and Nog are both wolves after all they've been saying to each other, but it's likely to be one of the two.

[Nerwen]

*waves to dead players reading the thread*

Well, Pitch, Zil, G55, Lommy, Glirdan–

I'm sure you've by now worked out that I, Shasta and Nog can't possibly be packmates.

This may be of some practical use to Sally or Menel (unless they're both evil, of course.)

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In any case, all innocent votes on other innocents are things they look for, and which help them play it out toDay. Also, in case we would be getting it right, they would do what needs to be done to divert the vote from one of them to one of us as they are so near victory.

That actually brings forth an interesting idea. If there is (and hopefully there is) at least one wolf among those already voted they would object to lynching her and tried to support someone else.

So let's dare them and see what happens?

So how about we lynch Sally? Do you see merit in lynching Agan or me instead?

Haha... you mindreader you...

Sally is a possibility. She did seem to be driving the G55 wagon on Day 2 with subtle pushes here and there, like I said - the only problem I'm currently having with her is that I have this lingering feeling from D1 that a lot of the suspicion heading Sally's way was coming from her and G55 being linked as a wolf pair, and since that's clearly not the case I'm trying to decide if I'm being unfairly biased or not.

[Nogrod]

I would be happy to vote Legate as well, but one more candidate at this point would probably be a mistake that could help the wolves to steer the lynch in case they needed to and at least it might help them hide better when they weren't possibly forced to vote similarly together.

So I think we're stuck with the three: Sally, Agan and myself.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The trouble is Sally hasn't said anything today, other than that she won't be here, which gives me nothing to go off of.

I realize RL gets in the way at the most inopportune times, but it does get a little frustrating when it happens to so many people at once.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know, I'm quite curious to find out whether any of this "Oh noes! The wolves just have to do x and y and z" talk is actually coming from the wolves.

At least some of it has to be....

I am so tired I can't even a coherent sentence. Voting now. Sleeping now.

++Nog

For fishiness and general plotting, trying to use my (apparently misplaced) trust in him against me, and what I still think is fear-mongering toDay. If he's not a wolf, feel free to lynch me toMorrow for my stupidity.

Note: I have no problem killing Agan either, but Nog's lynch will reveal moe, in my opinion, and Agan's clearly not the cobbler (also note Nog's nutty cobbler plan which...needed to be mentioned why, given that the cobbler's dead?), so....yeah. I'm sorry I can't say more now, but I have actually fallen asleep twice trying to do this post.

Voted now. Sleeping now. Would be nice not to die now. That would be bad. Sleeping now.

[Nogrod]

Well Shasta, you have just made wawer a bit... as I just remembered that one of the things that made me suspect Sally the most was on D2 when she appeared to say she wishes to see G55 to simmer but not be lynched when she had just made her "wolf-slip" and when people acknowledged it she turned on her heels pretty fast.

Now wolves often are opportunists as well, but some of the weight of that suspicion clearly lightens when G55 turned out ordo...


EDIT: X'd with Sally's... vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I would be happy to vote Legate as well, but one more candidate at this point would probably be a mistake that could help the wolves to steer the lynch in case they needed to and at least it might help them hide better when they weren't possibly forced to vote similarly together.

So I think we're stuck with the three: Sally, Agan and myself.

I think you're right... but of course another thing the wolves could be waiting for is for an innocent to get a second vote by another innocent.

Let's not forget that.

EDIT:X'd since my jewel.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

And there's Sally with a vote for Nog, just as Nog he may be reconsidering Sally. Curiouser and curiouser. I may need to re-evaluate my trust of Agan, as well - I just thought of something.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Note: I have no problem killing Agan either, but Nog's lynch will reveal moe

Hmm, what do you think my death would reveal more?

I can see you trying to rescue yourself though, as anyone would...

This will be interesting indeed.

A ten minute game.

[Nogrod]

I'm a few minutes away from voting Sally.

Persuade me not to if you feel there is a wiser way.


Where's Menel?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You know how Boro and the phantom will sometimes do these elaborate on-thread shenanigans? Well, I've thought that's what Agan was doing virtually all game, but now I'm thinking I might have been mistaken. I've been basing my trust of her basically off this, but I suddenly have a rather bad feeling that that's the only reason I haven't looked at her very hard. Which is dangerous.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm a few minutes away from voting Sally.

Persuade me not to if you feel there is a wiser way.


Where's Menel?

Are you sure, Nog? There's something in Sally's post that I'm considering very, very hard.

And good question. I'd rather he be here, considering.

[Nogrod]

Btw. it would be a rare coincidence that all the three playing actively around the most important DL thus far, maybe the game-decider, would be innocents...

Also, if Menel just pops in to vote, I'll say he's most probably a wolf.

Bah... where do I fit Sally and Legate both then?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw. it would be a rare coincidence that all the three playing actively around the most important DL thus far, maybe the game-decider, would be innocents...

I'll say.

[Nogrod]

I'm having a bad feeling about this... but I don't think there is another reasonable chance.

++ Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Sally

Maybe not so much what I thought.

Edit: X'ed with Nog.