WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Aganzir · 06-17-2012, 08:56 AM

It pays to be selfish.

I'm the ranger.

Legate of Amon Lanc · 06-17-2012, 09:58 AM

Okay, here, and I really really have to apologize but I don't think I will be very active, this time not voting early, but being probably absent until very close before DL (RL duties, I have one last exam coming tomorrow morning, about 6 hours before DL. So I can be active after that, but not before, I fear). Also I haven't had the time to read the thread very carefully as to what happened yesterDay, the main thing I gather was lynching a Wolf at last, however preceded by some funny debates. In any case I want to recheck and reevaluate my opinion on Nog, since at least from what I remember, he was one of those voicing the suspicion of sally from quite long time ago, and he probably had the chance to vote somebody else yesterDay if he wanted to save a packmate.

If there can be a vote-count or something from yesterDay for quick review, I'd be very grateful for it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It pays to be selfish.

I'm the ranger.

We definitely have one more Day (or even more, in fact, even in the worst case). I will try to use toDay as well as I could, but, see above... shall be back much later (I said originally my participation in this game might not be 100%, but right now it's the worst moment).

Aganzir · 06-17-2012, 10:43 AM

I'm willing to bet Nog and Shasta are innocent. Not only because they both voted for sally - their behaviour doesn't look wolfish at all.

I'm quite sure Legate is a wolf, and I'd say the last wolf is between Nerwen and Kath. Yes Nerwen also voted for sally (even if she xed with the other two votes), but she must have seen it couldn't have been anyone else than her (as Nog wouldn't have voted for himself and there was not enough support for lynching me). Nerwen is a sneaky one who isn't afraid to sacrifice her packmates, and some of the things she said yesterday didn't sit entirely right with me. More about that later, though - now I'll have a look at Legate.

Aganzir · 06-17-2012, 12:15 PM

DAY 1
Legate starts off by saying that he would've expected Zil and Pitch to be more serious. He says this is about the only game he considers the cobbler significant enough to lynch, and in the next paragraph he states the wolves probaby care more about the cobbler in a game like this. Sorry. I just had to point that out.

Legate is mildly wary about Inzil and mentions that Pitch and I talked about the cobbler. Kath looks genuine, interested and active to him, and of the others he has no opinion. Sally hadn't appeared so far. He also defends Menel against Lommy and Nog, saying he seemed only to be bantering, and remembers he was often lynched early because of something trivial. Legate concludes by saying he'd be wary of that, especially on day 1.
Later he finds G55's reaction to the Menel case awkward, as if she was fueling the flames even though she ended up not voting for him. He goes to a length to defend Menel against what he sees as unjust accusations. I can understand that because I too remember Menel as an easy victim for an early lynch, so one's being a wolf doesn't necessarily point at the other's guilt.

He doesn't like Nog who, he says, reacted jumpily to something Pitch said and keeps going after Menel, but takes back his suspicion in his next post a couple of hours later because he has good points. Choosing between those who already have votes, he thinks about voting for G55 even though Pitch is also an option and he'll be looking hard at Lommy for her Menel suspicion and general harshness. He ends up voting for G55 who is still creepier than Pitch.

DAY 2
Legate accuses Nog of stretching when he speculates on Inzil's possible Menel/G55 dream. He says G55 is very defensive, but even though he questions her, he isn't going very hard against her at first but also points out that some of her responses look genuine. He maintains a vague suspicion of Nogrod and says Nerwen has sharp and genuine-looking points.

After reading Inzil's posts, he concludes that if Inzil dreamed of somebody, it was probably Menel. He keeps questioning G55 (to the extent that she gets quite exasperated with him - no wonder because he asks the same questions in different words in four posts), and acknowledges that if G55 is a wolf, it might point at Nog and/or sally being wolves as well because they tried to save her. He then says that he could also vote for Nog because he's still the wariest about him, and raises eyebrows at sally who thinks Nog and G55 can't be wolves together, asking if she only thinks so because one could compare her to Nog based on their voting behaviour on day 1.

He quotes me when I listed points against sally and says there's something to it, sally is just throwing around ideas, for example saying I act weirdly, which has some merit. Basically he turns it over and ends up calling me stubborn for voting sally (retaliation he calls it). And he's a bit worried about Lommy following my vote for sally because "this sudden turn away from G55 might be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf." To him, the suspicious part was that Lommy had been suspecting G55 during the day and then suddenly just changed her mind without prior warning.

He then makes a list and concludes that some of G55's posts looked genuine, some suspicious (he mentions confusing answers, the possible slip and the self-vote, the significance of which he can't tell); Nog stays on his suspicion list (for casting around suspicion - day 1 on Menel & Pitch, day 2 on G55 and sally); and Lommy is awkward because of her jump on sally. Nerwen is the only one he seems to find innocent - she's sharp and witty, so he doesn't have a reason to say anything against her, unless he wants to be paranoid. He'd prefer voting for G55 and Nog and doesn't want to jump on the sallywagon because it would be too random and she hasn't said enough to analyse.

Legate keeps accusing Nog and speculates a tiny bit on the possibility of G55, Nog and sally being wolves together, but then says they can't be because Nog wouldn't start suspecting sally all of a sudden if he wanted to keep the village off his fellows. He agrees with Nerwen that it might even be plausible that sally was the cobbler, but repeats that he'd like to see more from her. And he considers voting for Nog and G55 again, saying G55's role might clarify sally & Nog's roles as well (ie. make them look more innocent, right?) He ends up voting for G55 because he doesn't want to start a third bandwagon.

DAY 3
He says the only thing G55's death clarified was that Nog and sally weren't wolves saving a fellow on day 1 (even though of course they could still be wolves). He suggests one of the reasons Lommy was killed was voting for someone else than G55 so we could make even less out of day 2's voting.

Legate amuses me because the more I read, the better I can see him and sally as fellows. He doesn't fail to mention that even though Lommy voted for sally, she found G55 and who else than Nogrod even more suspicious than her, and that she also suspected me! And that because Lommy thought Menel was a dreamt of innocent, he wouldn't have wanted to kill her if he's a wolf. Legate suggests Lommy was killed for suspecting at least one wolf, because the people she suspected were those Legate suspected too. This would mean Nog and/or I were wolves. You decide if this is plausible.

He's still the most suspicious of Nogrod, and wants to take a look at Kath, Shasta and me. I'm getting bored with these long posts. He eventually takes a look at us. I'm apparently not suspicious any more (even though I say random stuff), it was just my vote for sally on day 2 that made me look bad. Shasta might be an under the radar villain, but not necessarily. Kath looked good at the beginning but became quieter then, but in spite of that she looks good, partly because of meta-reasoning after her confusion about Pitch's death. So basically none of us are very suspicious. Legate explains his reasons for considering a vote for Nog again, and I'm linking it here because there's no sense for me to sum it up in this post. There's some more back and forth with Nog, and in the end Legate votes for him because he has to leave.

DAY 4
Legate needs to reevaluate his opinion of Nogrod.

Meneltarmacil · 06-17-2012, 12:23 PM

If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result.

Aganzir · 06-17-2012, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result.

I'm actually wondering more what you think of everyone...

Nogrod · 06-17-2012, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm actually wondering more what you think of everyone...

Seconded.

And do not only tell us that you have a theory into which person A or B fits into, but tell us about your theory as well so that we can appreciate it to its worth.

For a moment football wins werewolf

, but I'll be back after the game...

Nogrod · 06-17-2012, 11:09 AM

I think the single most interesting thing about yesterDay's lynch was that none really tried to save Sally.

The wolves were soo near total victory yesterDay so they should have tried to make sure their numbers stayed. Now what should we make of that?

1) They were so confident of their position in the village that they didn't need to (especially with the seer gone) save her but thoguht helping lynch her gives them more credit?

2) They were in such dire straits they didn't dare to vote against Sally fearing to be caught as defending their mate?

3) They were not around to defend her?

Like I said in the end yesterDay it is remarkable if the three active players playing near the DL were all innocents. It would be remarkable.

But a lot depends on what is the correct answer between alternatives 1-3.

I'll be back later to try and see if there is anything to help in answering that question.

The votes from yesterDay:

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally
Sally -> Nog 2
Nog -> Sally 2
Shasta -> Sally 3
Nerwen -> Sally 4

06-17-2012, 08:56 AM	#1
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	It pays to be selfish. I'm the ranger. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

06-17-2012, 10:43 AM	#3
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	I'm willing to bet Nog and Shasta are innocent. Not only because they both voted for sally - their behaviour doesn't look wolfish at all. I'm quite sure Legate is a wolf, and I'd say the last wolf is between Nerwen and Kath. Yes Nerwen also voted for sally (even if she xed with the other two votes), but she must have seen it couldn't have been anyone else than her (as Nog wouldn't have voted for himself and there was not enough support for lynching me). Nerwen is a sneaky one who isn't afraid to sacrifice her packmates, and some of the things she said yesterday didn't sit entirely right with me. More about that later, though - now I'll have a look at Legate. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 06-17-2012 at 12:02 PM. Reason: bolding & typos. The boys don't LOOL wolfish.

06-17-2012, 12:15 PM	#4
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Legate of Amon Lanc DAY 1 Legate starts off by saying that he would've expected Zil and Pitch to be more serious. He says this is about the only game he considers the cobbler significant enough to lynch, and in the next paragraph he states the wolves probaby care more about the cobbler in a game like this. Sorry. I just had to point that out. Legate is mildly wary about Inzil and mentions that Pitch and I talked about the cobbler. Kath looks genuine, interested and active to him, and of the others he has no opinion. Sally hadn't appeared so far. He also defends Menel against Lommy and Nog, saying he seemed only to be bantering, and remembers he was often lynched early because of something trivial. Legate concludes by saying he'd be wary of that, especially on day 1. Later he finds G55's reaction to the Menel case awkward, as if she was fueling the flames even though she ended up not voting for him. He goes to a length to defend Menel against what he sees as unjust accusations. I can understand that because I too remember Menel as an easy victim for an early lynch, so one's being a wolf doesn't necessarily point at the other's guilt. He doesn't like Nog who, he says, reacted jumpily to something Pitch said and keeps going after Menel, but takes back his suspicion in his next post a couple of hours later because he has good points. Choosing between those who already have votes, he thinks about voting for G55 even though Pitch is also an option and he'll be looking hard at Lommy for her Menel suspicion and general harshness. He ends up voting for G55 who is still creepier than Pitch. DAY 2 Legate accuses Nog of stretching when he speculates on Inzil's possible Menel/G55 dream. He says G55 is very defensive, but even though he questions her, he isn't going very hard against her at first but also points out that some of her responses look genuine. He maintains a vague suspicion of Nogrod and says Nerwen has sharp and genuine-looking points. After reading Inzil's posts, he concludes that if Inzil dreamed of somebody, it was probably Menel. He keeps questioning G55 (to the extent that she gets quite exasperated with him - no wonder because he asks the same questions in different words in four posts), and acknowledges that if G55 is a wolf, it might point at Nog and/or sally being wolves as well because they tried to save her. He then says that he could also vote for Nog because he's still the wariest about him, and raises eyebrows at sally who thinks Nog and G55 can't be wolves together, asking if she only thinks so because one could compare her to Nog based on their voting behaviour on day 1. He quotes me when I listed points against sally and says there's something to it, sally is just throwing around ideas, for example saying I act weirdly, which has some merit. Basically he turns it over and ends up calling me stubborn for voting sally (retaliation he calls it). And he's a bit worried about Lommy following my vote for sally because "this sudden turn away from G55* might be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf."* To him, the suspicious part was that Lommy had been suspecting G55 during the day and then suddenly just changed her mind without prior warning. He then makes a list and concludes that some of G55's posts looked genuine, some suspicious (he mentions confusing answers, the possible slip and the self-vote, the significance of which he can't tell); Nog stays on his suspicion list (for casting around suspicion - day 1 on Menel & Pitch, day 2 on G55 and sally); and Lommy is awkward because of her jump on sally. Nerwen is the only one he seems to find innocent - she's sharp and witty, so he doesn't have a reason to say anything against her, unless he wants to be paranoid. He'd prefer voting for G55 and Nog and doesn't want to jump on the sallywagon because it would be too random and she hasn't said enough to analyse. Legate keeps accusing Nog and speculates a tiny bit on the possibility of G55, Nog and sally being wolves together, but then says they can't be because Nog wouldn't start suspecting sally all of a sudden if he wanted to keep the village off his fellows. He agrees with Nerwen that it might even be plausible that sally was the cobbler, but repeats that he'd like to see more from her. And he considers voting for Nog and G55 again, saying G55's role might clarify sally & Nog's roles as well (ie. make them look more innocent, right?) He ends up voting for G55 because he doesn't want to start a third bandwagon. DAY 3 He says the only thing G55's death clarified was that Nog and sally weren't wolves saving a fellow on day 1 (even though of course they could still be wolves). He suggests one of the reasons Lommy was killed was voting for someone else than G55 so we could make even less out of day 2's voting. Legate amuses me because the more I read, the better I can see him and sally as fellows. He doesn't fail to mention that even though Lommy voted for sally, she found G55 and who else than Nogrod even more suspicious than her, and that she also suspected me! And that because Lommy thought Menel was a dreamt of innocent, he wouldn't have wanted to kill her if he's a wolf. Legate suggests Lommy was killed for suspecting at least one wolf, because the people she suspected were those Legate suspected too. This would mean Nog and/or I were wolves. You decide if this is plausible. He's still the most suspicious of Nogrod, and wants to take a look at Kath, Shasta and me. I'm getting bored with these long posts. He eventually takes a look at us. I'm apparently not suspicious any more (even though I say random stuff), it was just my vote for sally on day 2 that made me look bad. Shasta might be an under the radar villain, but not necessarily. Kath looked good at the beginning but became quieter then, but in spite of that she looks good, partly because of meta-reasoning after her confusion about Pitch's death. So basically none of us are very suspicious. Legate explains his reasons for considering a vote for Nog again, and I'm linking it here because there's no sense for me to sum it up in this post. There's some more back and forth with Nog, and in the end Legate votes for him because he has to leave. DAY 4 Legate needs to reevaluate his opinion of Nogrod. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

06-17-2012, 12:23 PM	#5
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result. __________________ I ♣ baby seals.

06-17-2012, 11:09 AM	#8
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I think the single most interesting thing about yesterDay's lynch was that none really tried to save Sally. The wolves were soo near total victory yesterDay so they should have tried to make sure their numbers stayed. Now what should we make of that? 1) They were so confident of their position in the village that they didn't need to (especially with the seer gone) save her but thoguht helping lynch her gives them more credit? 2) They were in such dire straits they didn't dare to vote against Sally fearing to be caught as defending their mate? 3) They were not around to defend her? Like I said in the end yesterDay it is remarkable if the three active players playing near the DL were all innocents. It would be remarkable. But a lot depends on what is the correct answer between alternatives 1-3. I'll be back later to try and see if there is anything to help in answering that question. The votes from yesterDay: Leg -> Nog Kath -> Agan Agan -> Sally Sally -> Nog 2 Nog -> Sally 2 Shasta -> Sally 3 Nerwen -> Sally 4 __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...