WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nogrod]

The wolves will not vote then, right?

Well they don't need to...



EDIT: X'd with Shasta, which kind of made what I said redundant...

[Nerwen]

Time. I really don't know what to do, so

++Sally

EDIT: X'd since Nog's vote-post. And with DL, it seems. Kit, are you counting my vote?
EDIT2:fixed bolding.

[Kitanna]

Galadriel's suicide and then Lommy's death had left everyone in a frenzy. The village cobbler may have died, but two innocents had gone with him. Too many good folk were dying without bringing the real culprits to justice.

They had to bring down one of the wolves' cohorts today or they'd be doomed.

“It has to be Nog!” Part of the tavern rose up. It was generally agreed the retired barkeep had always been a problem.

“No! It's that girl Sally.” The town bicycle was a shifty one. Besides, with snow on the ground it wasn't like she was taking her bicycle anywhere. What else was she to do than work with wolves?

Debate raged until the sun began to sink in the sky. Finally an angry group grabbed Sally by the hair and dragged her to the back. A funnel was forced in her mouth while a bottle of Inzil's homemade rat poison was poured down.

Sally coughed violently against the poison. Foam, tinged pink with blood, formed at the corners of her mouth. Her body stiffened, eyes rolling into her head. She spat up blood and was gone. The mob searched her pockets to find a contract. Signed in her blood and with a bloody pawprint it was clear she had been among those you made a pact with the wolves.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Aganzir
Kath

[Kitanna]

Their companion had been taken down. The two other cohorts set off looking for another victim. This one was for them though. The wolves could not feast on these bones.

But who to pick? They prowled about, looking into windows and checking locks. The sun would be up soon. A decision had to be made. They picked their victim. It was time to make someone suffer for what had happened to Sally. The whole village should burn for that.

Something was wrong when they tried to pick the lock. “Try again,”one hissed in the darkness.

“It feels like someone jammed it from inside. Let's just break a window.”

“We might be heard. Try again!”

An arrow flew through the darkness and lodged into the door's wood. The two sped from the scene. It was getting too late. The pink hue of morning was beginning on the horizon. Tonight they had been bested.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Aganzir
Kath

Day 4 Begins

[Nerwen]

Nice work, Ranger!

[Kath]

Yeah go Ranger! This puts us at 2 wolves and 5 innocents right? That's better odds than it looked like it was going to be!

I'm disappearing for Father's Day duties but will be back this evening.

[Aganzir]

It pays to be selfish.

I'm the ranger.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here, and I really really have to apologize but I don't think I will be very active, this time not voting early, but being probably absent until very close before DL (RL duties, I have one last exam coming tomorrow morning, about 6 hours before DL. So I can be active after that, but not before, I fear). Also I haven't had the time to read the thread very carefully as to what happened yesterDay, the main thing I gather was lynching a Wolf at last, however preceded by some funny debates. In any case I want to recheck and reevaluate my opinion on Nog, since at least from what I remember, he was one of those voicing the suspicion of sally from quite long time ago, and he probably had the chance to vote somebody else yesterDay if he wanted to save a packmate.

If there can be a vote-count or something from yesterDay for quick review, I'd be very grateful for it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It pays to be selfish.

I'm the ranger.

We definitely have one more Day (or even more, in fact, even in the worst case). I will try to use toDay as well as I could, but, see above... shall be back much later (I said originally my participation in this game might not be 100%, but right now it's the worst moment).

[Aganzir]

I'm willing to bet Nog and Shasta are innocent. Not only because they both voted for sally - their behaviour doesn't look wolfish at all.

I'm quite sure Legate is a wolf, and I'd say the last wolf is between Nerwen and Kath. Yes Nerwen also voted for sally (even if she xed with the other two votes), but she must have seen it couldn't have been anyone else than her (as Nog wouldn't have voted for himself and there was not enough support for lynching me). Nerwen is a sneaky one who isn't afraid to sacrifice her packmates, and some of the things she said yesterday didn't sit entirely right with me. More about that later, though - now I'll have a look at Legate.

[Nogrod]

I think the single most interesting thing about yesterDay's lynch was that none really tried to save Sally.

The wolves were soo near total victory yesterDay so they should have tried to make sure their numbers stayed. Now what should we make of that?

1) They were so confident of their position in the village that they didn't need to (especially with the seer gone) save her but thoguht helping lynch her gives them more credit?

2) They were in such dire straits they didn't dare to vote against Sally fearing to be caught as defending their mate?

3) They were not around to defend her?

Like I said in the end yesterDay it is remarkable if the three active players playing near the DL were all innocents. It would be remarkable.

But a lot depends on what is the correct answer between alternatives 1-3.


I'll be back later to try and see if there is anything to help in answering that question.


The votes from yesterDay:

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally
Sally -> Nog 2
Nog -> Sally 2
Shasta -> Sally 3
Nerwen -> Sally 4

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Legate starts off by saying that he would've expected Zil and Pitch to be more serious. He says this is about the only game he considers the cobbler significant enough to lynch, and in the next paragraph he states the wolves probaby care more about the cobbler in a game like this. Sorry. I just had to point that out.

Legate is mildly wary about Inzil and mentions that Pitch and I talked about the cobbler. Kath looks genuine, interested and active to him, and of the others he has no opinion. Sally hadn't appeared so far. He also defends Menel against Lommy and Nog, saying he seemed only to be bantering, and remembers he was often lynched early because of something trivial. Legate concludes by saying he'd be wary of that, especially on day 1.
Later he finds G55's reaction to the Menel case awkward, as if she was fueling the flames even though she ended up not voting for him. He goes to a length to defend Menel against what he sees as unjust accusations. I can understand that because I too remember Menel as an easy victim for an early lynch, so one's being a wolf doesn't necessarily point at the other's guilt.

He doesn't like Nog who, he says, reacted jumpily to something Pitch said and keeps going after Menel, but takes back his suspicion in his next post a couple of hours later because he has good points. Choosing between those who already have votes, he thinks about voting for G55 even though Pitch is also an option and he'll be looking hard at Lommy for her Menel suspicion and general harshness. He ends up voting for G55 who is still creepier than Pitch.

DAY 2
Legate accuses Nog of stretching when he speculates on Inzil's possible Menel/G55 dream. He says G55 is very defensive, but even though he questions her, he isn't going very hard against her at first but also points out that some of her responses look genuine. He maintains a vague suspicion of Nogrod and says Nerwen has sharp and genuine-looking points.

After reading Inzil's posts, he concludes that if Inzil dreamed of somebody, it was probably Menel. He keeps questioning G55 (to the extent that she gets quite exasperated with him - no wonder because he asks the same questions in different words in four posts), and acknowledges that if G55 is a wolf, it might point at Nog and/or sally being wolves as well because they tried to save her. He then says that he could also vote for Nog because he's still the wariest about him, and raises eyebrows at sally who thinks Nog and G55 can't be wolves together, asking if she only thinks so because one could compare her to Nog based on their voting behaviour on day 1.

He quotes me when I listed points against sally and says there's something to it, sally is just throwing around ideas, for example saying I act weirdly, which has some merit. Basically he turns it over and ends up calling me stubborn for voting sally (retaliation he calls it). And he's a bit worried about Lommy following my vote for sally because "this sudden turn away from G55 might be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf." To him, the suspicious part was that Lommy had been suspecting G55 during the day and then suddenly just changed her mind without prior warning.

He then makes a list and concludes that some of G55's posts looked genuine, some suspicious (he mentions confusing answers, the possible slip and the self-vote, the significance of which he can't tell); Nog stays on his suspicion list (for casting around suspicion - day 1 on Menel & Pitch, day 2 on G55 and sally); and Lommy is awkward because of her jump on sally. Nerwen is the only one he seems to find innocent - she's sharp and witty, so he doesn't have a reason to say anything against her, unless he wants to be paranoid. He'd prefer voting for G55 and Nog and doesn't want to jump on the sallywagon because it would be too random and she hasn't said enough to analyse.

Legate keeps accusing Nog and speculates a tiny bit on the possibility of G55, Nog and sally being wolves together, but then says they can't be because Nog wouldn't start suspecting sally all of a sudden if he wanted to keep the village off his fellows. He agrees with Nerwen that it might even be plausible that sally was the cobbler, but repeats that he'd like to see more from her. And he considers voting for Nog and G55 again, saying G55's role might clarify sally & Nog's roles as well (ie. make them look more innocent, right?) He ends up voting for G55 because he doesn't want to start a third bandwagon.

DAY 3
He says the only thing G55's death clarified was that Nog and sally weren't wolves saving a fellow on day 1 (even though of course they could still be wolves). He suggests one of the reasons Lommy was killed was voting for someone else than G55 so we could make even less out of day 2's voting.

Legate amuses me because the more I read, the better I can see him and sally as fellows. He doesn't fail to mention that even though Lommy voted for sally, she found G55 and who else than Nogrod even more suspicious than her, and that she also suspected me! And that because Lommy thought Menel was a dreamt of innocent, he wouldn't have wanted to kill her if he's a wolf. Legate suggests Lommy was killed for suspecting at least one wolf, because the people she suspected were those Legate suspected too. This would mean Nog and/or I were wolves. You decide if this is plausible.

He's still the most suspicious of Nogrod, and wants to take a look at Kath, Shasta and me. I'm getting bored with these long posts. He eventually takes a look at us. I'm apparently not suspicious any more (even though I say random stuff), it was just my vote for sally on day 2 that made me look bad. Shasta might be an under the radar villain, but not necessarily. Kath looked good at the beginning but became quieter then, but in spite of that she looks good, partly because of meta-reasoning after her confusion about Pitch's death. So basically none of us are very suspicious. Legate explains his reasons for considering a vote for Nog again, and I'm linking it here because there's no sense for me to sum it up in this post. There's some more back and forth with Nog, and in the end Legate votes for him because he has to leave.

DAY 4
Legate needs to reevaluate his opinion of Nogrod.

[Meneltarmacil]

If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result.

I'm actually wondering more what you think of everyone...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm actually wondering more what you think of everyone...

Seconded.

And do not only tell us that you have a theory into which person A or B fits into, but tell us about your theory as well so that we can appreciate it to its worth.

For a moment football wins werewolf , but I'll be back after the game...

[Nogrod]

Just before the game (Netherlands - Portugal) begins...

What Agan just said could reveal a part of the puzzle why there was no major effort to save Sally near the DL. A part, to be sure - but it seems Legate did what he could to persuade others to vote a "not-Sally" when he still was around...

Okay, the game started. Back later.

[Aganzir]

Here are some things that made me concerned about Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Nerwen 94

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

It's similar to sally's later "I wonder if Agan is a baddie. Discuss."

After Lommy and my votes for sally, Nerwen quoted her question about finding the cobbler, called it odd and suggested sally's behaviour might fit her being the cobbler (but then, so might Lommy's).

On day 3, I analysed sally, and Nerwen commented demurely on a minor point (the quote should be mine, not sally's). That was the first thing that alarmed me about her because that's exactly how she tends to react to a fellow wolf getting under suspicion - agreeing but not agreeing, if you know what I mean. She continutes it in a later post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen 203

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

However later, in 211, she offers Nog (who had suggested a pack of Shasta, Legate and Nerwen) a compromise - Shasta, Legate and sally. Yes sally had received some suspicion, but then Nerwen had been suspicious of Nog herself. Anyway I'm not quite sure she'd be that willing to bus a fellow because it was by no means certain we'd lynch sally.

So yeah, I'm far more certain of Legate's guilt. It's impossible to ever accuse Nerwen with absolute certainty (except when she starts off by saying that terrible things have happened - this is what you get for reminding me of my slips ), but I don't think her being a wolf is far-fetched. Even though it could of course also be Menel or Kath. The latter was acting weirdly yesterday (actually all of the game to be honest), while we haven't seen much of the former... But then, if Kath was a wolf, wouldn't she have voted for Nogrod with Legate?

[Meneltarmacil]

Nogrod and Shasta don't look like wolves. Their cross-posted votes for Sally put her in the lead to be lynched, and Sally's vote for Nog instead of Agan leads toward that direction as well.

Kath's silence makes her pretty unreadable. Could go either way; there just isn't enough information to tell.

Nerwen voted very late and voted for Sally. She was beyond saving, though, so it could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf.

Yet something really bothers me about yesterday's voting. If even one innocent did vote for another, the three wolves could have banded together to take that number up to four. Even if the other villagers all voted for an alternative lynch, the wolves would still win.

But after Legate voted for Nogrod and Kath voted for Aganzir, no such wolf-pile occurred. Sally did try to add to the Nogrod votes, but the other wolves didn't. Either we've got some rather unintelligent wolves, or either Legate or Kath is a wolf who voted too early.

All in all, I'd really like to see some answers regarding the wolves' actions.

[Nogrod]

Half-time...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

if Kath was a wolf, wouldn't she have voted for Nogrod with Legate?

Exactly.

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...

But she didn't. So a reason for me to trust on her toDay at least (well, unless things go very complicated).

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims. And even if there is, they must be followed by some exceptionally believable stuff looking at both Agan's vote yesterDay (the same fits to her vote as with Kath's, or even more as it was already the third vote and she herself already had a vote when introducing a new votée) and all the sense she has been making toDay.

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.

But even if Legate is a wolf (and I hope to delve into that myself as well later on) we still miss the third.

And if I'm right about the three I have been talking about, then it is one from Shasta, Nerwen, Meneltarmacil... and it could be anyone, really.

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.

EDIT: X'd with Menel... back with you after the game...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Either we've got some rather unintelligent wolves, or either Legate or Kath is a wolf who voted too early.

Exactly. And this is one of the reasons I'm really suspicious of Legate.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims.

Oh come on, I'll be dead tonight anyway so no need to doubt.

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.

Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.

++LEGATE OF AMON LANC

Because there's no chance he's not a wolf.

I may or may not pop in before work tomorrow depending on how early I get up. Now I'm going to bed with Lovecraft.

Good luck.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Agan

Oh come on, I'll be dead tonight anyway so no need to doubt.

Heh. I did actually continue from where you quoted with this:

Originally Posted by me

And even if there is, they must be followed by some exceptionally believable stuff looking at both Agan's vote yesterDay (the same fits to her vote as with Kath's, or even more as it was already the third vote and she herself already had a vote when introducing a new votée) and all the sense she has been making toDay.

So it takes some game-changing arguments for me to not trust you here Agan. Like let's say Legate is lynched and is not a wolf, and you are alive toMorrow - and there's another ranger-reveal... or something of that scope. I mean never say never, but yeah, thus far I have no reason not to trust your revelation.

I'll check the late part of yesterDay if there is anything worth noticing. And I do encourage others to do that too.

[Kath]

Oy, I have not been silent. I have been struggling with this deadline. Feels like I'm always playing catch up. And I'll be voting within half an hour again.

My vote yesterDay was based on the fact that I thought the wolves must have seen something in Lommy's posts to bother killing her. She was by no means trailless. I had to vote early and I wanted to make sure her posts were looked at in case she was on to something. Don't think I really succeeded but hey.

Agan's ranger reveal I'm willing to take at face value. If she's a wolf it's an impressive ploy but (I think) all the players have turned up now and I would have thought there would have been a counter reveal by now if she wasn't the real one.

So, this leaves me with:
Nog
Nerwen
Shasta
Legate
Menel

As potential wolves. Off to look at the thread.

[Meneltarmacil]

As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

[Kath]

Day 1:
Nog - feels that Menel going on about influential players is a crusade to stop people talking. This is pretty far fetched. Oddly defensive against Pitch, who hadn't actually threatened to vote for him. Now very aggressive against Pitch. Also aggressive against Menel. Suspicions of Pitch and G55 (new suspicion of G55 here) and states that he won't vote Menel. Said G55's vote for Pitch made it unlikely both are wolves, but they come up as his main vote possibilities.

Nerwen - sarcastic about Menel. Defends Agan's use of her - fair enough.

Shasta - defends Menel a little. Suspects Pitch for being suspicious about people talking of the Cobbler. Doesn't like G55's suspicion of Menel. Suspected G55 for backtracking on her suspicions and for faulty reasoning behind her vote. Fair reasons, but obviously a wolf can twist reasons to their liking.

Legate - expected more from Inzil and Pitch. This is 10 posts in. Even the most serious players can have one banter post surely! Makes the point I was trying to get to about the Cobbler needing to be lynched rather than Night killed. Pretty much defends Menel, and quite strongly. Looks at Nog and Lommy for focusing on him. Again defends Menel, this time against G55. Suspects Nog for his jumpy reaction to Pitch. Backtracks on Nog saying he has calmed down. Is looking to vote G55.

Menel - was talked about a lot for his 'Captain obvious' comments. I mean, they were obvious, but on Day 1 where conversation needs to be pushed so you don't get a list of 'oh no it's Day 1' posts I don't think this was too deeply suspicious. Reiterates Captain obvious statements. Reiterates Captain obvious statements again. Reiterates Captain obvious statements yet again. (I know he was trying to explain his point, but to be honest I think everyone had got it by now, we were more looking for some opinions on who these influential wolves are then just hearing the theory again.) Aha! Suspects Inzil. Votes him.

Day 2:
Nog - very reluctant to give clear theories on Inzil's possible dreams. Understandable. But I feel like given how strong he was on all his ideas the Day before that the wishy-washyness is odd. Given that none of G55, Inzil, Pitch or Agan (assuming on that last one) was a wolf, Nog's last vote for Pitch was not any kind of 'saving' vote, which would look suspicious by now, but was just the nail in the coffin. Suspicious simply for doing that, Nog is not a cowardly wolf. Was very gleeful after having decided G55 was definitely suspicious and then this 'Galwolf slip' which now clearly wasn't. He was right about sally though not based on what she said about G55. Sudden deep suspicion of sally for not suspecting him. It's so sudden I'm not sure it is wolf on wolf, unless he suddenly saw sally had put him as not suspicious and worried it would come back to bite him in later Days. Still determined G55 is a wolf but is equally suspicious of sally. Repeats this.

Nerwen - pushing G55 as a wolf idea. Nerwen's 'what is Nog? Discuss' comment is rather ... lazy. Feels like 'I can't be bothered to work it out'. But then Nerwen isn't a cowardly wolf either. If Nog is a wolf not sure Nerwen would be. Half-hearted suspicion doesn't feel like her. Slightly defends G55. Thinks sally or Lommy could be the Cobbler.

Shasta - points out sally's comment makes G55's early comment into more of a drama than it maybe would have been otherwise. Defends G55. Points out Menel ignores Nog but thinks sally suspicious based on the voting. Suspicion of sally. Had u-turned on G55 after her 'Galwolf' thing and decides we have to know her role now.

Legate - thinks Nog is stretching a lot, which is interesting given how vague Nog was about what Inzil might have dreamt. Had good points about G55 maybe not being a wolf as she was only going to come under suspicion again. Thinks Inzil dreamt Menel, is confused by G55. Slightly defends G55. If he and Nog are both wolves this kind of works - Nog attacks and Legate defends. Looks to see if Nerwen will vote with him on Nog. Probably unlikely that Legate and Nerwen are both wolves based on that. Wants to vote Nog or G55, discounting sally because he feels he needs to hear more from her. Wants to vote G55 as it will make the roles of others clearer. I don't see that voting Nog wouldn't have had largely the same effect but then he wasn't up for the lynch.

Menel - agrees with the suspicion about G55 and says it implicates sally.

Day 3:
Nog - very defeatist. I mean, this whole thing could have been a carefully done ploy, especially as he was first in. It's a hell of an effort though. Says Legate is pushing Day 1 voting. As I read it, he wasn't, but this could easily be a language barrier thing. Shouts: Shasta, Legate, Nerwen. Well we know it can't be all three now. And still suspects sally, so this isn't a serious list anyway. Sad face after 'the cobbler is no more' ... weird. Defends himself, was pretty reasonable, got aggressive again at the end. Haven't played in a while - is this how Nog plays now? Willing to vote sally or Legate - with sally having already received a vote. Though Nog then shows himself willing to go for Agan, which would be using my vote. And backtracks a little on sally. Yet now states he'll vote her.

Nerwen - didn't like Shasta's excuse of voting G55 to remove a distraction. Again wishy-washy on Nog. Doesn't like Agan's out-of-context quote and my suspicion of Agan (which, by the way, I hadn't realised at all that Agan was apparently joking). Suggests Shasta, Legate and sally as a trio. Possible I think.

Shasta - questions Menel, suggests sally is suspicious. Interesting point about votes not being jumped on, points the finger at Legate. Legate voted for Nog, so if Nog is a wolf it makes sense no one would have jumped on it. Not jumping on Agan would probably be down to not being able to make it stick. Shasta discounts Agan, and nearly discounts sally.

Legate - looks at Lommy. Thinks she probably had a wolf on her suspect list somewhere to have bothered being killed. Suspicion of Nog and possibly Shasta.

Menel - intends to look at the G55 bandwagon. Hmm now Menel suspects Nog and sally. Very unlikely then to be a Nog, sally, Menel trio. But two of the three is possible. Don't know what Menel is like as a wolf. Brave enough for this? Or following the lead of a brave Nog or a nihilistic sally? Argues he wouldn't follow a Nog-wolf lead. Then point out he mentioned sally too.

Day 4:
Nog - states it was actually Legate who was suggesting people other than sally. Well so was he.
Legate - thinks Nog could have voted to save sally if they were packmates. I think this is pretty unlikely. With everyone going for her why bother?
Menel - suggests Legate is a wolf who voted too early so the wolves couldn't create a bandwagon. This was mentioned elsewhere yesterDay. States Nerwen, Legate and Kath are the wolves. Well, I am not, but I'd be willing to go with the other two names at the moment.

Votes:
Day 1: Menel --> Inzil; Shasta --> G55; Nog --> Pitch; Legate --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 2: Menel --> G55; Legate --> G55; Shasta --> G55 (crossed with Legate); Nog --> G55; Nerwen --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 3: Legate --> Nog; Nog --> sally; Shasta --> sally (crossed with Nog); Nerwen --> sally

Posting this, coming back with quick thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

Silent in-flipping-deed.

[Kath]

Yep, I'm happy with the idea that Legate voted early for someone who the wolves couldn't then get a bandwagon going on (Nog). Thus sally had to be sacrificed to avoid suspicion.

++LEGATE

[Nogrod]

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I still think our best bet toDay is Legate as there are so many questionmarks there with the others; like that an innocent Shasta might have said what he did just being indecisive, or that Nerwen might have been just a very subtle wolf I know she is cabable of, or that Menel after all, with a theory built to pick a predetermined person fails to acknowledge that it actually fitted a (now) known wolf as well...

But well, that all is very indecisive as now. If I have energy, I try to make a kind of summa of my notes from yesterDay, if not, then I'll be back tomorrow aka on the second half of the Day.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

I'll say this: I held my vote so long waiting for my heart to come back and tell us what this "something" was– then realised time had run out.

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Been checking the thread sporadically from my phone. I'll make a decent post later when I'm at my computer, but I noticed a luminescent gleam mentioning my behavior at the end of yesterday, so I thought I'd clarify that, in my paranoia, I was momentarily convinced that Sally was hinting at being the Ranger. That sane paranoia was also sure that Agan was a wolf that had spent the early part of the game posing as the cobbler.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

That would be exactly what I would have said.

I decided to go and check through D2 for that as it felt important (more important than my notes on yesterDay which I can still type tomorrow aka later toDay if it feels like something that helps).

Now both Legate and Shasta voted G55 on D1.

ON D2 they both are quite ambiguos about her, more suspecting than not (there's a clear difference on that Legate discusses her over and over again ending up in that limbo while Shasta posted very little on D2 in general).

An interesting exchange happens between Lommy and Legate when Lommy notes to him that if G55 is a wolf not only me (whom Legate had concentrated) but also Sally could be a wolf. Legate accepts it as "theoretically" possible (how nice) but thinks it so much speculation it would be better revealed with G55's role...

After I (and few others) started pushing for Sally to be a candidate, Legate says he's not willing to jump into Sallywagon.

I pressed on my #159 & #160 (15 to 10 minutes before the DL) for a pick between the two believing they were both wolves (votes then G55/3, Sally/2)... and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

Well it strengthens my belief in Legate being a wolf (the answer to Lommy mentioned above!). But with Shasta it leaves me quite out in the open still

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.

Look at the timing of the last votes: Sally nearly was saved, and Nogrod lynched by default (though I doubt that could have been planned). And I would say Sally must have had hopes of turning the vote away from herself, even at the last. What I mean is, I don't think the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was quite as certain beforehand as you think.

Originally Posted by Agan

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.

Agan, you know I hate to use "if I were a wolf" reasoning... but I suppose there's a time and a place for everything. For what it's worth, then: if I were a wolf, I believe I'd have thrown Sally under a bus a lot quicker than I did.

More to the point– since, as it happens, I'm not a wolf , I know you must have wrongly eliminated someone from your list of possibilities.

Now, it seems likely enough the wolves knew that they would not be able to count on each other being around in time to secure the vote. If both Legate and Kath are wolves, and both *had* to vote early, the latter may not have *dared* follow the former's vote, for fear of the village catching on– which might well have done for them. Do you see what I'm saying? I don't know if that was the case, of course– but I don't think it's safe simply to rule Kath out yet, anyway.

Then, Menel:

Originally Posted by Agan

Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him)

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, then. I'm voting for

++Legate of Amon Lanc

because of how defensive he was about Sally and the aforementioned voting patterns.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nog

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...

Hmm. Had Kath been suspicious of you herself prior to that, though? I think I'll go back and check that.

Originally Posted by Nog

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.

Nothing really to say about this, other than that I agree. Particularly because there wasn't a four-man-pileup of votes later in the day.

Originally Posted by Nog

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

It was at about that point my paranoia about Agan had started to kick in. It really took off after Sally made that post with those vague Ranger-hints. But at the very end I decided to go with my gut over last-minute worries.

Originally Posted by Nog

and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

What pushed it over the edge for me, combined with what I'd thought D1, was that "slip" that it was pointed out G55 made. I thought, as frustrated as she'd been all day, she'd been frustrated right into blowing her cover.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

This, along with really concentrating on "influential" people and (it seems) completely discounting wolf-on-wolf as a tactic - which bothers me, because the only real pointer towards Menel's innocence seems to be the possibility that he was Inzil's first dream. It kind of seems like he's been coasting under that particular cloud for a while. I think I'll go look at him next.

Originally Posted by Menel

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

If you're only left with Legate and Kath, and think only one is a wolf... then where's the third wolf, Menel?

[Meneltarmacil]

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Oh no. What if it's Kath and Menel! Look at his last post!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Menel

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

Hold it. I never "claimed you were the third wolf", I said I was going to look at you next. And I pretty clearly stated that I do find Legate suspicious, so obviously I don't "think Legate really is innocent."

You're also completely discounting Kath, based on her vote for Legate. Given the high amounts of suspicion Legate has gathered today, I'd say wolf-on-wolf is likelier than it was yesterday - and since your "most likely possibility" is that Nog, Nerwen, or I did it yesterday, why are you completely ignoring it today?

Edit: crossed with my dear one, as I left this up while going to get a drink.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh no. What if it's Kath and Menel! Look at his last post!

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

Well, to get her trust, I suppose... it's true this isn't the greatest time to use that kind of ploy, as it would leave him fewer options for the next Day– but then whatever Menel is, I don't think his naivete about tactics is necessarily an act.