Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

I'm starving hungry, so posting my analysis and deciding on a vote will have to wait until after dinner (can't concentrate any more!). But currently I am tending towards seeing Pitchwife as innocent, leaving Eomer and Shasta as the remaining suspects. Points made by G55 and Pitch about Eomer seem fairly persuasive, so if I had to pick someone ASAP, I would probably pick Eomer. But I still need to consider the case against Shasta carefully. He hasn't said much yet, so I want to see more of what he has to say. He's planning to analyse me, but I would very much like to see what he thinks of the other candidates too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

#19 - summary of posts thus far. Doesn't think anyone looks very suspicious as of yet. Has been talking a bit with Inzil.

#39 - notes that she'd intended to vote for one of the quieter players/people who haven't shown up.

#46 - does the math on what it will mean for the village should Pitch be modfired.

#55 - votes for Nessa. Reasons given - won't vote for Pitch as he's likely to be modfired, and this;

Originally Posted by Cop

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

ShastaNotes - Hm. In hindsight, obviously, the fact that Nessa ended up a wolf makes this vote look better. At the time, though, Kit had two votes and (assuming, obviously, Inzilwolf and Sallyordo) the third wolf yet to vote, so this could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I say this because Cop's reasons for her vote aren't actually that great, considering basically anything anyone says at any time could be "cover for a wolf".

#59 - responds to Nessa. In my paranoia (and my own stubborn refusal to go with the crowd, since basically everyone else thinks she's innocent), this post reads like Wolf A apologizing to Wolf B for voting them.


Day 2:

#67 - Hm.

Originally Posted by Cop

Whoa, so they took Nerwen. I'm really surprised. They must have thought she was the Seer. I thought she was a possible Seer too, but evidently not. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.

Where's Lottie when you need her? Now, I'm the first to call her out for basing her biases off things like this, but this really does look like someone who's trying too hard to be innocent.

Also:

Originally Posted by Cop

I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf.

None of this tracks with your stated reason for voting Nessa (see above.) It also strikes me as more of the whole "acting innocent" thing. I could do an impression, but that's more Sally's thing.

Also posts a list. Very suspicious of Inzil, suspicious of Eomer and Sally.


On a slight tangent -

Originally Posted by Eomer

To my mind, there is nothing suspicious here. Wasn't everyone a bit suspicious of what Sally did? But then Nerwen (proven innocent now) suspects Nessa from this, and Shasta jumps in with a vote. Coppermirror then votes for Nessa too, albeit with a better reason (Nessa's vote for Pitch). Coppermirror then clarified that the earlier 'suspicion' of Nessa was not a deciding factor, and so I look more favourably on her now.

Keep in mind, Cop didn't clarify anything about the reasons for her vote until after Nessa was revealed as a wolf, which means it could easily be fabricated clarification.



#78 - analyzes Nessa's vote for Pitchwife and the wolf pack's kill of Nerwen. All decent reasoning as far as I can tell, except for the things that were already mentioned earlier in thread.

#79 - three paragraphs of defending Inzil for his "wolf-hooking" plan, and then this -

Originally Posted by Cop

Which is not to say that Inzil isn't still suspicious.

Bit of a turnaround there, I think.

#119 - As I read this post, I'm slowly realizing that I'm stating a lot of what Kitanna already said, and that you've already answered.

Especially about the Nessa-vote. I see you've answered that. It appears you had a fine reason to vote for Nessa the whole time... so why not just say that from the beginning? Now there's no proof that you didn't think up the entire thing after the fact.

#125 - analyzes Inzil and Kitanna regarding the Seer claims.

#127 - after another long theoretical analysis, votes Inzil. This turned out to be the correct vote, but I don't like this -

Originally Posted by Cop

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

This makes it look like you were setting yourself up to have been suspicious of both Inzil and Kitanna... if you were a wolf, you'd know who was lying and who was telling the truth, and... I'm not actually sure what that means in regards to your wolfishness or innocence. I'm tired. But something tells me it's important, so I'm leaving it here.

#146 - Potential wolves are Eomer, myself, and Pitchwife. This tracks from her previous day's suspicion, when she was confident in G55's innocence.

Conclusions to come. My eyes are blurring.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, so, those of you who know me know that I tend to lean on the side of suspicion when I analyze somebody (it's the paranoia, I promise). My analysis of Cop isn't much different - I saw several things that made me suspicious. However, as late in the day as it is, with no one else around, I feel like voting for Cop now would be a throwaway vote - also, knowing how biased I can be, I'd like to give her a chance to at least respond to what I've written. Plus I've got to hit the hay.

Having said that, I feel like I don't have much choice but to go with the self-preservation vote -

++Eomer

Good night.

[Coppermirror]

Re Shasta's suspicions of me:

Not much I can say to refute what Shasta thinks of as me trying too hard to act innocent. My intended strategy as an innocent in my first game has been to not worry too much about appearing innocent or suspicious, and to be fairly loud and try to say what I'm thinking. In part, hoping that lack of guile and polish will convey itself on its own while I'm concentrating on finding wolves. This may be why I'm coming over as acting too innocent to one or two of you. I could probably have been quieter and sounded less that way, but I believe I would be of less use to the village if I had.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#78 - analyzes Nessa's vote for Pitchwife and the wolf pack's kill of Nerwen. All decent reasoning as far as I can tell, except for the things that were already mentioned earlier in thread.

#79 - three paragraphs of defending Inzil for his "wolf-hooking" plan, and then this -

Bit of a turnaround there, I think.

Yes, I was definitely kicking myself after that post. I had intended to continue on with my reasons for finding Inzil suspicious, and had started writing them, but I was getting very tired and my reasoning was becoming messy. So I decided to delete that part of the post and post again in the morning. Little did I know that the next post would be Kitanna coming out with a Seer declaration about Inzilwolf. I was surprised that nobody thought that looked suspicious until now.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#119 - As I read this post, I'm slowly realizing that I'm stating a lot of what Kitanna already said, and that you've already answered.

Especially about the Nessa-vote. I see you've answered that. It appears you had a fine reason to vote for Nessa the whole time... so why not just say that from the beginning? Now there's no proof that you didn't think up the entire thing after the fact.

You mean, say that during voting time on Day 1? A couple of reasons. For one, I didn't have time. You placed your vote for Nessa at 12:31 PM GMT. Nessa placed her vote for Pitchwife at 12:43 PM GMT. I had only 12 minutes in which to consider the plan to vote for Nessa to create a tie.

Another reason is that although you clearly think my reason to vote for Nessa prior to her Pitch vote was a perfectly good reason, I thought my reason was terrible. Like I mentioned in post #119, it was not a vote based upon actual suspicion. Putting in a vote that wasn't based on actual suspicion was exactly what I hadn't wanted to do. I was reluctant to do it.

I'm a bit puzzled about this:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#55 - votes for Nessa. Reasons given - won't vote for Pitch as he's likely to be modfired, and this;

ShastaNotes - Hm. In hindsight, obviously, the fact that Nessa ended up a wolf makes this vote look better. At the time, though, Kit had two votes and (assuming, obviously, Inzilwolf and Sallyordo) the third wolf yet to vote, so this could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I say this because Cop's reasons for her vote aren't actually that great, considering basically anything anyone says at any time could be "cover for a wolf".

(emphasis added)

You're saying that my initial reason for voting for Nessa (not actually suspecting her, but wanting to create a tie and see what happened) was a "fine reason to vote", but voting for Nessa based on her suspicious vote for Pitch was a bad reason? The only other reading is that you're saying Nessa's behaviour in latching on to suspicion of Sally would be a bad reason to vote for her. Which is exactly what you did when you voted...

It looks as if you are placing emphasis on what I said after I mentioned the basis for my vote. I find it a bit suspicious, especially since, had the latter bit been my reason (which it wasn't), it would have been on the same grounds as your vote. On the other hand, Seer-Kitanna seemed to have the same impression of my voting reasons, and of course she was innocent.

This is the full version of what I said, with emphasis added.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

My reasons: I don't believe that a vote for Pitchwife is a useful vote at the moment, as I think he won't show up and will get mod-fired anyway. I thought of voting for him earlier, but working through it in my previous post persuaded me that it wasn't a good idea. I may be wrong, but that's the basis for my vote.

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

In a post not long before, I'd concluded that a vote for Pitch was a useless vote that wouldn't help the village. It's natural that anyone who came along voting for him would look suspicious to me and would instantly get my vote.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#127 - after another long theoretical analysis, votes Inzil. This turned out to be the correct vote, but I don't like this -

This makes it look like you were setting yourself up to have been suspicious of both Inzil and Kitanna... if you were a wolf, you'd know who was lying and who was telling the truth, and... I'm not actually sure what that means in regards to your wolfishness or innocence. I'm tired. But something tells me it's important, so I'm leaving it here.

Oh dear, you're trying to read a lot into that. What I said there was exactly what I was thinking. At the time I voted, I wasn't sure which out of Kit and Inzil was the real wolf, and I was tired out and not making progress. So I gave up and voted Inzil because otherwise there would be no option but a tie. Later on that Day, in retrospect, I became more confident about my vote. You can see that in my later comments.