WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Two hours to go in the day and Sally finally thinks to call me and let me know the game's started.

I'll try and make an informed vote by reading the thread, but no promises.

[Rikae]

I don't like the way Pom and Cab went for Cop at all. Yes, I suspected Cop myself, but this just looks overeager and wrong. I feel like my suspicion made matters too easy for at least one of them. Pom is wishy-washy and self-contradictory: I almost think a wizard might be more careful. As for Cab, I don't know. Would a Cab or Pom wizard throw a fellow under the bus at this early stage? Thing is, I don't like Cab's reasons. I suspected Cop for the classic blunder of "looking helpful", he seems to suspect him for voting early. If you have to vote early, you have to vote early, and the reasons will be thin.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Rikae

As for Cab, I don't know. Would a Cab or Pom wizard throw a fellow under the bus at this early stage? Thing is, I don't like Cab's reasons. I suspected Cop for the classic blunder of "looking helpful", he seems to suspect him for voting early. If you have to vote early, you have to vote early, and the reasons will be thin.

Because when CM voted, there were like 6 others who had mostly vague IC postings (including you, I might add), but immediately picked out Boro as the only suspicious and votable one from that group. Hasty and ill-thought.

[Boromir88]

Top suspicions:

Cop and Brinn pretty much for their votes, but at the same time I hate actually having to make decisions on Day 1, when it doesn't seem like either will be around for the rest of the day.

Originally Posted by Brinn

While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far. By suspicious, I refer to excessive bantering combined with picking up on comments that she could later use as reasons for an easy lynch (like Morsul's comment on Kath). I realize it's weak reasoning, but there's really not much else to go on and I do generally tend to be pretty wary about Nerwen anyway.

I tend to be wary around Nerwen too...and Rikae...and many others, but it's not a reason to vote for them. I read that as "here are some admittedly weak suspicions but Nerwen's also a pretty scary when she's evil." Everyone's potentially perilous, and it's one thing to be wary of someone, but a cop out to use the "well, she always makes me wary anyway" vote.

Granted I'm not doing much stirring of the pot yet, but Nog seems more commentating and non-committal so far. I haven't an idea on what his thoughts about anyone are, other than making clear he's not taking any stance yet on Gil-galad, or Nerwen, or Cop...just making statements that are neither meant as accusations or defenses?

Who I prefer not to see lynched today...

Gil-galad
Nerwen
Rikae

Gil's explained himself a bit clumsily and much of the reasons people have suspected him look like his own doing in insisting what he says will get turned against him. Definitely bears further watching, but currently nostalgia is blocking reasons for finding his actions are of evil purposes.

Nerwen's reaction to the two votes against her is understandable and look innocent, particularly since the votes themselves aren't good. Brinn's "she had too much fun trolling, besides I'm always wary of her" and Gil's "I don't want to add a name to the growing list."

Read Rikae's posts, then read Nog's, for why I have some misgivings about what Nog has contributed so far. Rikae hasn't said a bunch, but has made concrete statements about what she's feeling towards certain players.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Greenie's arrival, also fixing the quote tags.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Granted I'm not doing much stirring of the pot yet, but Nog seems more commentating and non-committal so far. I haven't an idea on what his thoughts about anyone are, other than making clear he's not taking any stance yet on Gil-galad, or Nerwen, or Cop...just making statements that are neither meant as accusations or defenses?

Hah. I just haven't had time enough to actually think about things this Day but just to skim through and make some fast general comments. You know when I have time I tend to argue this way or that whether I'm an innocent or a wolf (or even a gifted) so it's less about my role than my time.

Which said I'll try to go back checking at least something for the last hour.

EDIT: You guys post fast indeed! *Good old times come to mind*

[Nogrod]

Firstly (well the latest thought), I'm a bit worried about Greenie (news!). Without being able to really read and delve into this toDay I'm feeling more or less anguished while thinking I need to vote in 45 minutes, not knowing where to look for or where to concentrate my effort, while Greenie seems to have ample time to make detailed and plausible "case" for her vote even if she - according to hr - only came online a while ago and has already left. I know she's bright and sharp (thence not a troll! ) but it seems a bit too confident what becomes to how she used her time here toDay - the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us.

Secondly I still suspect Gil for which seemed like he only slowly came forwards with his scheme of testing Nerwen. It is clear that if one tries to test someone one shouldn't say it immediately when voting that "I'm just testing", but with Gil it felt like he only got around that explanation with time (I might need to check that actually to be sure).

Pom I suspect a little, mostly becasue of her careful adding of look at the possible bandwagon after she noticed McCab had voted for Copper as well making her look like a bandwagoner...

Of those earliest votes I'm not yet so suspicious of. As yet.

I'm more bothered by all the people who fly under our radars at the moment... like Volo, Sally, Lottie, Zil... not that I'd have a hunch they'd be wolves, but because nobody notices them (me neither).

EDIT: X'd with a couple of votes etc...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pom I suspect a little, mostly becasue of her careful adding of look at the possible bandwagon after she noticed McCab had voted for Copper as well making her look like a bandwagoner...

A sentence that makes no sense...

Let's make it anew.

Pom I suspect a little, mostly because of her careful adding of the idea that we should look at the possible bandwagon for Copper after she noticed McCab had voted for him as well, thus making her look like a bandwagoner...

Hope it makes sense now.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Two hours to go in the day and Sally finally thinks to call me and let me know the game's started.

I'm sorry, doll. I'd forgotten you were playing for a bit, or I'd have phoned you sooner.

I am highly suspicious of anyone who says "let's be suspicious of anyone who voted X" in the post right after they vote for that person. Why is Pom somehow special enough to be above reproach for voting Cop? I understand the x'ing issue, but it really, really rubs me the wrong way. I'm going to take a quick look at Cabbie before I decide though, as I've not paid any sort of attention to him.

x'd since Nog's #135

[Nogrod]

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

I need to check back about Copper next, as to how bad his vote was to compare to these later developements.

[Boromir88]

I can't see my mind changing much in the next 30 minutes, so might as well go now and see what shakes out...

++Coppermirror

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm more bothered by all the people who fly under our radars at the moment... like Volo, Sally, Lottie, Zil... not that I'd have a hunch they'd be wolves, but because nobody notices them (me neither).

I agree with these sentiments (plus would add Shasta), but at this point, to dwell and consider those names today would be safe and throwaways. I think particularly in sally, Lottie, and Zil's case. They seem more hampered by time, they are normally not names who stay under the radar...even if they can get entish in taking a while to warm up/get moving. Volo, much about his playing I've forgotten.

With you and me here though, you should also know they won't be able to sit on their hands for long.

[Volo]

Ok, Nerwen is the one I find the most suspicious of those who have votes and will vote for her to save McCaber if I can't agree with someone on a more suspicious character. Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

[Volo]

++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

[satansaloser2005]

++Pom

Because I just can't get over her obvious attempt to bandwagon.

Granted, Volo just admitted to doing the same thing, but that'll be an issue we can address toMorrow....


x'd with Nog

[Ozban]

So now McCab, Cop, Nerwe and Pom tie at three votes. Interesting. But I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet.

[Volo]

In my preveous post I my thought that Pom instead of Copper had 3 votes. Copper didn't raise any alarms except for concentrating on something not very helpful.

[Bane Mantra]

Originally Posted by Volo

Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

I can agree with this reasoning, from a more mathematical standpoint: there are 5 trolls for whom votes have been cast. Roughly a fifth of us. Out of those, there's a 1 in 4 chance that one will be a Wizzard, which results in a roughly 4% chance of lynching a ruddy rotten Wizzard toDayNight.

As I've said, however, there are so many of us that our lynching probability will be low tonight, but DayNight1 isn't about certainty, it's about lynching the most likely to be a Wizzard.

I admit to having a slight handicap toDayNight, as many references have been made to playstyle, and my being very very new doesn't give me an aid in hunting Wizzards. ToMorrow, I'm sure I'll have more to say, analyzing the Wizzards' kill and the voting patterns of toDayNight and such. Is this a cop out? A little bit, I'll admit, but I can promise you I won't cop out like this again.

Pom is my number one suspect, but even then I have little to go on - her bandwagoning and then incongruous statement about watching Cop's voters is very strange, the strangest thing to go down toDayNight.

Also, to avoid confusion, I am male.

x'ed with Oz, Volo and Gil