Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

McCaber · 08-25-2013, 03:51 PM

++ Holby

edit: x'd with Lottie on the previous page.

Coppermirror · 08-25-2013, 03:53 PM

++Holby

I'm suspicious of Holby enough to vote for her to save myself.

satansaloser2005 · 08-26-2013, 04:01 PM

Echo tossed and turned, unable to rest for fear that the sorcerers would make tonight's sleep eternal. Such fears were only heightened as the sound of a rock skittering across the land caused Echo to look up. "....Hello?"

"....Hello?"

"Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?"

There was nothing for a moment, and then Echo heard a soft voice from beyond the darkness.

"Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?"

"This isn't funny!" Echo called, glancing around to find the source of the voice.

"This isn't funny!"

"This isn't funny!"

Echo blindly fumbled around until fingers met wand. The implement's tip lit up, but the glow was immediately snuffed out by a cloud of darkness.

"What are you doing?"

"What are you doing?" came the reply. The breath of the speaker warmed Echo's neck, but just as quickly the sensation was gone. "We're here," the voice rasped, "to ensure that we have no problems with repetition."

"Repetition?"

"Repetition...."

"No, really, repetition?" Echo said, hesitantly sliding backward. "What do you mean repetit- Oh. Oh dear."

"Oh dear."

"Oh de- No, stop it. To business. We're here specifically to ensure there is no repetition of last dusk's events. And for that, we'll need to eliminate any, shall we say, remaining echo of suspicion."

"Echo of suspicion."

Echo jumped backward, but the spark from the attackers' weapons lit the area just long enough for Echo to see two robed figures before everything went black.

~~~~

The next morning, as the group awoke to find Echo's bedroll unoccupied, they failed to notice that one of their number had acquired the now silent Echo's wand.

"One more of us down," sighed one of the wizards.

"One more of us down," whispered a sorcerer, dropping Echo's wand into a bush before solemnly joining the others for breakfast.

Casting:
Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCobbler
Lottie
Green
Echo
Boro
Lommy
Steve

Cast aside:
Sally (moddess)
Morsul (collateral damage)
Legate (wizard)
Dun (wizard)
Holby (sorcerer)
Echo (wizard)

Eönwë · 08-26-2013, 04:40 PM

Well, my gut reaction is that Echo was killed as a possible Seer. Especially since I seem to recall that there was something that could be read as a hint. I'll try to find it.

As for the voting, all I can infer right now is that McCaber is probably not a sorcerer. It don't know whether or not it makes Cop look better, though. But if she is a sorcerer, she's pretty brutal (unless Nerwen is also one), though there was little choice by that point.

edit: x-ed with Boro

Eönwë · 08-26-2013, 05:00 PM

Ok, I've started rereading Echo's posts, and really, practically every post could be read as a Seer hint if that's what you're looking for.

And the thing is, I think that is the main point behind this. To just make everything more confusing. Between all the people he suspects and people he points at in Holby's list, and possible bluffs and double bluffs from the sorcerers, the waters are really muddied.

Eönwë · 08-26-2013, 05:21 PM

I do think it should be addressed though.

If the sorcerers thought Echo was a seer, then Cop and Greenie are the most obvious answers for possible wolves (which funnily enough have topped my suspicion list since D1, but I won't let that cloud this post). Of course, it would also be risky to kill with such links - though Echo was enigmatic, Cop was next to Holby in the suspicious list, and Greenie a step below (and also pointed at in the annotated Holby's list) - though maybe not as risky as being found out. And of course if they're not, the sorcerers could just want to frame them.

On the other hand, it could be a 'let-them-think-we-think-Echo's-a-seer' kill, in which case it points to Kath. If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely, so by killing Echo, Kath makes herself look amazingly innocent (i.e. makes us think the wolves thought her innocent).

I might be overthinking this though... I don't think I've tried such a complex plan as a wolf.

Anyway, that's it for now; hopefully when I wake up there'll be some proper discussion going on.

Nerwen · 08-26-2013, 06:43 PM

Steve–

Since the person to whom Echo suddenly switched suspicions at the start of Day Two, and continued to pursue throughout the Day without giving any concrete reason, all the while muttering “I fear lest I be killed for my knowledge...” etc, etc. was, in fact, a wolf– well, it looks pretty straight-forward this time. I don’t think we need any elaborate theories to explain it– it would have been very surprising had they not killed her*.

Or him. We still haven’t cleared that one up, have we?

Shastanis Althreduin · 08-26-2013, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Steve–

Since the person to whom Echo suddenly switched suspicions at the start of Day Two, and continued to pursue throughout the Day without giving any concrete reason, all the while muttering “I fear lest I be killed for my knowledge...” etc, etc. was, in fact, a wolf– well, it looks pretty straight-forward this time. I don’t think we need any elaborate theories to explain it– it would have been very surprising had they not killed her*.

Or him. We still haven’t cleared that one up, have we?

Basically, this. QFT.

I should be back soon with some actual comments, but this just begged for a "^" post.

satansaloser2005 · 08-26-2013, 07:36 PM

Nerwen: You know what? I'm going to PM them and ask, 'cause I really don't know.

Boromir88 · 08-26-2013, 04:38 PM

Now that one, I definitely think was the sorcerers hoping to get the seer...hehe.

Coppermirror · 08-26-2013, 11:13 PM

Since I got pushed into saying what I did at #196, I think I'd better clear the matter up in case that ends up inhibiting the reasoning of innocents toDay. I'm either the Protector Wizard or the Pact Mage. I'm not the Aura Reader. I'd rather not say which of the other two I am at this point unless it's strictly necessary.

I'll be back later - I've been working on an analysis of Echo, and I intend to do one of Holby too.

Coppermirror · 08-27-2013, 03:39 PM

Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it.

Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively.

On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it.

Holby, Day 2

Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that.

Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either."

Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon.

Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone.

Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions".

At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell.

#137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day.

#138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me.

#147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused."

#151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!"

#181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion.

#184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote.

#188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough.

#194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category.

#200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman.

After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo.

08-26-2013, 04:01 PM	#3
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Echo tossed and turned, unable to rest for fear that the sorcerers would make tonight's sleep eternal. Such fears were only heightened as the sound of a rock skittering across the land caused Echo to look up. "....Hello?" "....Hello?" "Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?" There was nothing for a moment, and then Echo heard a soft voice from beyond the darkness. "Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?" "This isn't funny!" Echo called, glancing around to find the source of the voice. "This isn't funny!" "This isn't funny!" Echo blindly fumbled around until fingers met wand. The implement's tip lit up, but the glow was immediately snuffed out by a cloud of darkness. "What are you doing?" "What are you doing?" came the reply. The breath of the speaker warmed Echo's neck, but just as quickly the sensation was gone. "We're here," the voice rasped, "to ensure that we have no problems with repetition." "Repetition?" "Repetition...." "No, really, repetition?" Echo said, hesitantly sliding backward. "What do you mean repetit- Oh. Oh dear." "Oh dear." "Oh de- No, stop it. To business. We're here specifically to ensure there is no repetition of last dusk's events. And for that, we'll need to eliminate any, shall we say, remaining echo of suspicion." "Echo of suspicion." Echo jumped backward, but the spark from the attackers' weapons lit the area just long enough for Echo to see two robed figures before everything went black. ~~~~ The next morning, as the group awoke to find Echo's bedroll unoccupied, they failed to notice that one of their number had acquired the now silent Echo's wand. "One more of us down," sighed one of the wizards. "One more of us down," whispered a sorcerer, dropping Echo's wand into a bush before solemnly joining the others for breakfast. Casting: Shasta Kath Nerwen Cop McCobbler Lottie Green Echo Boro Lommy Steve Cast aside: Sally (moddess) Morsul (collateral damage) Legate (wizard) Dun (wizard) Holby (sorcerer) Echo (wizard) __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm. Last edited by satansaloser2005; 08-26-2013 at 11:37 PM.

08-26-2013, 04:40 PM	#4
Eönwë Flame Imperishable Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Right here Posts: 3,928	Well, my gut reaction is that Echo was killed as a possible Seer. Especially since I seem to recall that there was something that could be read as a hint. I'll try to find it. As for the voting, all I can infer right now is that McCaber is probably not a sorcerer. It don't know whether or not it makes Cop look better, though. But if she is a sorcerer, she's pretty brutal (unless Nerwen is also one), though there was little choice by that point. edit: x-ed with Boro __________________ Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place

08-26-2013, 05:00 PM	#5
Eönwë Flame Imperishable Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Right here Posts: 3,928	Ok, I've started rereading Echo's posts, and really, practically every post could be read as a Seer hint if that's what you're looking for. And the thing is, I think that is the main point behind this. To just make everything more confusing. Between all the people he suspects and people he points at in Holby's list, and possible bluffs and double bluffs from the sorcerers, the waters are really muddied. __________________ Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place

08-26-2013, 05:21 PM	#6
Eönwë Flame Imperishable Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Right here Posts: 3,928	I do think it should be addressed though. If the sorcerers thought Echo was a seer, then Cop and Greenie are the most obvious answers for possible wolves (which funnily enough have topped my suspicion list since D1, but I won't let that cloud this post). Of course, it would also be risky to kill with such links - though Echo was enigmatic, Cop was next to Holby in the suspicious list, and Greenie a step below (and also pointed at in the annotated Holby's list) - though maybe not as risky as being found out. And of course if they're not, the sorcerers could just want to frame them. On the other hand, it could be a 'let-them-think-we-think-Echo's-a-seer' kill, in which case it points to Kath. If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely, so by killing Echo, Kath makes herself look amazingly innocent (i.e. makes us think the wolves thought her innocent). I might be overthinking this though... I don't think I've tried such a complex plan as a wolf. Anyway, that's it for now; hopefully when I wake up there'll be some proper discussion going on. __________________ Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place

08-26-2013, 06:43 PM	#7
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Steve– Since the person to whom Echo suddenly switched suspicions at the start of Day Two, and continued to pursue throughout the Day without giving any concrete reason, all the while muttering “I fear lest I be killed for my knowledge...” etc, etc. was, in fact, a wolf– well, it looks pretty straight-forward this time. I don’t think we need any elaborate theories to explain it– it would have been very surprising had they not killed her. Or him. We still haven’t cleared that one up, have we? __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning."* –Elmo.

08-25-2013, 03:51 PM	#1
McCaber Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Skyrim, again. Posts: 820	++ Holby edit: x'd with Lottie on the previous page. __________________ Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century.

08-25-2013, 03:53 PM	#2
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	++Holby I'm suspicious of Holby enough to vote for her to save myself.

08-26-2013, 07:36 PM	#9
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Nerwen: You know what? I'm going to PM them and ask, 'cause I really don't know. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

08-26-2013, 04:38 PM	#10
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	Now that one, I definitely think was the sorcerers hoping to get the seer...hehe. __________________ Fenris Penguin

08-26-2013, 11:13 PM	#11
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Since I got pushed into saying what I did at #196, I think I'd better clear the matter up in case that ends up inhibiting the reasoning of innocents toDay. I'm either the Protector Wizard or the Pact Mage. I'm not the Aura Reader. I'd rather not say which of the other two I am at this point unless it's strictly necessary. I'll be back later - I've been working on an analysis of Echo, and I intend to do one of Holby too.

08-27-2013, 03:39 PM	#12
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it. Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively. On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it. Holby, Day 2 Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that. Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either." Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon. Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone. Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions". At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell. #137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day. #138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me. #147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused." #151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!" #181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion. #184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote. #188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough. #194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category. #200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman. After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo.