Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, this has gotten interesting.

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

So, I suppose, as an innocent I can't really refute his claim well, but at least I know that at least now I'll be able to say what I think without needing to defend myself for the rest of the Day, because I know, unless there's anything particularly glaring, the logical thing would be to lynch me.

[Eönwë]

Also, bear this in mind: once I'm dead, the player list looks like this:

Shasta [S]
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Greenie
Echo
Lommy

That means that after their Night kill, it will be 2:6.


Ok, so you we react all depends on the Seer. The problem is that we haven't been told whether or not the Seer can tell the difference between Saruman and the other sorcerers. So, these are the possibilities as I see them (excluding special circumstances like saves, hunts and lover findings):


1. Seer has not dreamt of a sorcerer
You have to kill Shasta. Better to kill a known wolf than chase after an unknown. And then:

A. Shasta is Saruman. You only need to hunt down the last wolf. Ratio is 1:6.

B. Shasta is the other sorcerer. By the next morning, the ratio is 2:4, which means that the village has to guess correctly that day.



2. Seer has dreamt of Saruman
You kill Saruman. Hope it's not Shasta.


3. Seer has dreamt of a sorcerer

A. We know it's not Saruman (after Sally confirms):
1. It's not Shasta- kill Shasta.
2. It's Shasta- kill Shasta, since he's the only known wolf.

B. We don't know whether it's Saruman or not (after Sally confirms):
1. It's Shasta- Same as 1A
2. It's not Shasta
a. The wolves know this - they're playing this sort of game with the village.
b. The wolves don't know this - Given that the other option is a possibility too, it's probably more likely that it's not Shasta.


4. Seer has dreamt of both
If Saruman's identity is unknown, the village is forced to play the wolves' game.


edit: fixed wording

[Eönwë]

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

Just an ordinary boring villager.

[Eönwë]

Also, something to think about before I go for the night: Considering that Boro was probably the wolves' guess for Echo's Night 1 dream, it's not unlikely that a reasonable amount of Boro suspicion is suspicious itself.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Oh, honey, that's cute. Really. It is.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

Yeah, I was pretty panicked over yesterDay. Knew I'd blown it. Whoever you are, thank you, Ranger darling for saving me.

I could've drawn this out, seen how it all went down, tried to find the other sorcerer...but the thing is, I already know both of them. :P

Shasta must be a sorcerer, what with his false reveal, and last Night, my dreams proved fruitful and I discovered that the final sorcerer is Greenie.

Lommy, dear, you were right all along.

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

[McCaber]

*monocle pops out*

Good lord! Now this has gotten interesting.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought that might happen. Well, that's all to the good then!

Now that we know that the last two sorcerers are Eonwe and Lottie (hi, dear, thanks so much for showing up), we simply have to decide which one is Saruman and kill that one first. I'm assuming, at this point, that the wolves obviously know which is which - otherwise, what's the point of Lottie fake revealing? - and thus, are either going to:

A: Try to get me lynched (a tactic they appear to be going for), or, failing that -

B: Try to get the non-Saruman wolf lynched to throw dissent into the ranks.

Lottie's fake reveal points at Eonwe being Saruman, in my opinion - given the amount of pressure I put on him being lynched, she would have had to try something in order to attempt to elongate the game. Unfortunately, Lottie's blown it with her dreams. Let's take a look -

Firstly, Lottie claims not to have dreamt on Night 0. Isn't that convenient? (By the way, my Night 0 dream was Nerwen. Old habits die hard, I suppose. )

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.) In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

In any case, my other dreams were Night 1 Lommy, Night 2 Boro, and last night's Eonwe. Cue me being so very annoyed as one of my known innocents proceeded to lynch another.

[Nerwen]

No surprises here– my treasure’s “Well, that’s torn it. Very nicely done,” remark (#280) pretty much had to come from either a wolf preparing for a fake reveal– or the Seer– and I’m inclined to think he’s the latter.

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Well, I can think of one reason– the wolves might have been convinced Steve was the Seer, about to out one of their number, have failed to kill him last Night due to Ranger-protection, and thought this was the best option left them. Okay. That’s what we’ll have to look at if Steve turns out innocent, or something else turns up, or whatever.

In the meantime, I think Eonwe should go on toDay’s lynch-list.

–Oh yes, I’ve seen your numbers-based arguments, Steve, but the problem, from the village’s point-of-view, is that they would apply in the case of any alleged wolf revealed by any alleged Seer.

By the way:

Originally Posted by Steve

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

EDIT:X’d with Steve, and Lottie’s competing reveal. Well, well!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Maybe they thought I was the seer, like Lommy did. Even though I'd finally just stopped suspecting Greenie. Or maybe that was actually the plan. Since I'd stopped suspecting Greenie , I wouldn't dream of her and then after getting lynched toDay, my change of opinion on Greenie could easily look like the dream of the Night before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

It means that whether or not the real seer believes me, they should come out now if they know the other wolf, because the other one would have to be either me or Shasta. Of course, she did, which is great.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.

So, it looks like my earlier fears were not unmerited. And since Sally has decided not to tell us whether or not the wolves knew whether or not the seer to see who was Saruman or not, we're at an even greater disadvantage than we would be otherwise. Because as well as deciding whether the wolves are bluffing or double-bluffing etc., we also have to decide whether they knew, or thought we thought they knew etc. about how the dreams would show up. It's probably best to not think about the latter part too much though, because we'll probably never know.

I think what it boils down to is that if they're playing it safe, Greenie is Saruman. Shasta has already exposed himself and there was a chance that the Seer hadn't already found Greenie (she hasn't really appeared on many people's suspicion lists so far). But since they've already gone this far by risking this tactic this early (I mean, if they'd been able to stay alive until toMorrow, they'd have a much greater chance of success- unless maybe they thought the real seer was ready to reveal?), I wouldn't rule out the other option either.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Nice try, most-likely Saruman!

edit: x-ed with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Also, doesn't anyone else see the gaping hole in Shasta and Greenie's logic?

It's quite obvious that if Lottie and I were wolves, the only reason for her to come out of hiding would be if I were Saruman, because otherwise she would get to use her Saruman powers once I was lynched. So, clearly the village would then go to lynch me anyway, and her coming out of hiding would just be damaging. It just doesn't make sense.

[McCaber]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.