Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

If Boro turns out to be a sorcerer, I think it will be worth it to look at Nerwen toMorrow.

edit: fixed bolding

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

Thanks Shasta.

I'm still going to hope for a village victory...but that was just ridiculous.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

Okay I know I called it a truce already but don't say I didn't say it: if Boro dies and turns out to be innocent, Shasta has sure tried to make himself look good with his couple of last posts.

[Eönwë]

Also, beware of Kath. She's submarining.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay I know I called it a truce already but don't say I didn't say it: if Boro dies and turns out to be innocent, Shasta has sure tried to make himself look good with his couple of last posts.

I'm probably posting after deadline, but wow, Lommy, when did you get so mean?

[satansaloser2005]

My sweet Boro. What have you done?

(No. Seriously. What the heck happened here? Boro's innocent, by the way.)

[satansaloser2005]

No magic took place this night.

Day begins early. Please feel free to discuss.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

[Thinlómien]

Seriously.

What. The. [something censored].

Here I was like 80% certain Eönwë was the seer.

Great.

Now I must think, but given how well it appears to have gone in this game this far, I'm not sure it will be of any help.


PS. Also last Night what the [again censored], I hope that was something positive (ie. a ranger save) rather than negative!

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Sorry. I would have voted Eonwe yesterDay, but it was already too late to save Boro by then, so I wanted to keep my cards close.

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Yes, well, I would have said something earlier, but I really hadn't thought that bandwagon would pick up quite the speed that it did. Irritating.

[Coppermirror]

Sally, does Saruman show up as an ordinary sorcerer to the Aura Reader, or will they know if it's him?

[Thinlómien]

Well even if this was a wolf ploy I fail to see what great damage following Shasta would do. Flushing out the real seer, yes, but with any decent chance s/he'd have quite a lot of information for us anyway, and we're not yet in the point of the game were numbers have great importance, so I can't really see the point of a wolf doing a fake reveal just now.

I will reread toMorrow and maybe I'll get a hallelujah revelation that Shasta's lying, but now it does seem to make much more sense to take his reveal at face value, although personally I'm not too happy about this because *grumble grumble grumble* it's quite sour to admit I've been basically wrong about everything.

On the plus side, we got a wolf. I guess that's more important than my pride. And if Eönwë indeed is a wolf, yesterDay's events look all the more interesting. I will have a look at that too tomorrow, but now I'm going to sleep (if I can fall asleep despite the explosions happening in my brain right now.


PS. One last thing to address now: Shasta, I definitely did not mean to offend you yesterDay and I'm sorry if I accidentally did. From my perspective, your posting just looked like you're attaching yourself to an innocent so you can look better the next Day - too bad it seems you knew Boro was innocent because you were the seer, not because you were a wolf.

PPS. Speaking of which, if something makes me feel better right now it's that at least we went for Boro yesterDay instead of Shasta whom I wanted to lynch. (If you think of it, it's quite ironic, I was thinking I'm voting Boro to make sure the seer doesn't die - and then it worked, not because the other lynch candidate was the seer though, but because my top suspect whom I decided not to vote that Day was the seer. )


edit: xed with Shasta
edit2: and with Copper, 'downs is messing up with me again

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It may be a few hours before I make it back to a computer, so I'm going to go ahead and get this out of the way -

++Eonwe

I also hope to do some rereading of yesterday.

[Coppermirror]

I'm going to go and re-read the previous Days too, in light of the person I thought was the Aura Reader being different. I'm working on the provisional assumption that Shasta is telling the truth. Either way, we're going to have a wolf in the bag and a revealed Aura Reader.

I think the question about whether the Aura Reader can see Saruman is pretty important.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, this has gotten interesting.

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

So, I suppose, as an innocent I can't really refute his claim well, but at least I know that at least now I'll be able to say what I think without needing to defend myself for the rest of the Day, because I know, unless there's anything particularly glaring, the logical thing would be to lynch me.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I think the question about whether the Aura Reader can see Saruman is pretty important.

Also whether the sorcerers know the answer to this question. Please tell us, Sally.

[Eönwë]

Also, bear this in mind: once I'm dead, the player list looks like this:

Shasta [S]
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Greenie
Echo
Lommy

That means that after their Night kill, it will be 2:6.


Ok, so you we react all depends on the Seer. The problem is that we haven't been told whether or not the Seer can tell the difference between Saruman and the other sorcerers. So, these are the possibilities as I see them (excluding special circumstances like saves, hunts and lover findings):


1. Seer has not dreamt of a sorcerer
You have to kill Shasta. Better to kill a known wolf than chase after an unknown. And then:

A. Shasta is Saruman. You only need to hunt down the last wolf. Ratio is 1:6.

B. Shasta is the other sorcerer. By the next morning, the ratio is 2:4, which means that the village has to guess correctly that day.



2. Seer has dreamt of Saruman
You kill Saruman. Hope it's not Shasta.


3. Seer has dreamt of a sorcerer

A. We know it's not Saruman (after Sally confirms):
1. It's not Shasta- kill Shasta.
2. It's Shasta- kill Shasta, since he's the only known wolf.

B. We don't know whether it's Saruman or not (after Sally confirms):
1. It's Shasta- Same as 1A
2. It's not Shasta
a. The wolves know this - they're playing this sort of game with the village.
b. The wolves don't know this - Given that the other option is a possibility too, it's probably more likely that it's not Shasta.


4. Seer has dreamt of both
If Saruman's identity is unknown, the village is forced to play the wolves' game.


edit: fixed wording

[Eönwë]

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

Just an ordinary boring villager.

[Eönwë]

Also, something to think about before I go for the night: Considering that Boro was probably the wolves' guess for Echo's Night 1 dream, it's not unlikely that a reasonable amount of Boro suspicion is suspicious itself.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Oh, honey, that's cute. Really. It is.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

Yeah, I was pretty panicked over yesterDay. Knew I'd blown it. Whoever you are, thank you, Ranger darling for saving me.

I could've drawn this out, seen how it all went down, tried to find the other sorcerer...but the thing is, I already know both of them. :P

Shasta must be a sorcerer, what with his false reveal, and last Night, my dreams proved fruitful and I discovered that the final sorcerer is Greenie.

Lommy, dear, you were right all along.

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

[McCaber]

*monocle pops out*

Good lord! Now this has gotten interesting.

[Nerwen]

No surprises here– my treasure’s “Well, that’s torn it. Very nicely done,” remark (#280) pretty much had to come from either a wolf preparing for a fake reveal– or the Seer– and I’m inclined to think he’s the latter.

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Well, I can think of one reason– the wolves might have been convinced Steve was the Seer, about to out one of their number, have failed to kill him last Night due to Ranger-protection, and thought this was the best option left them. Okay. That’s what we’ll have to look at if Steve turns out innocent, or something else turns up, or whatever.

In the meantime, I think Eonwe should go on toDay’s lynch-list.

–Oh yes, I’ve seen your numbers-based arguments, Steve, but the problem, from the village’s point-of-view, is that they would apply in the case of any alleged wolf revealed by any alleged Seer.

By the way:

Originally Posted by Steve

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

EDIT:X’d with Steve, and Lottie’s competing reveal. Well, well!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought that might happen. Well, that's all to the good then!

Now that we know that the last two sorcerers are Eonwe and Lottie (hi, dear, thanks so much for showing up), we simply have to decide which one is Saruman and kill that one first. I'm assuming, at this point, that the wolves obviously know which is which - otherwise, what's the point of Lottie fake revealing? - and thus, are either going to:

A: Try to get me lynched (a tactic they appear to be going for), or, failing that -

B: Try to get the non-Saruman wolf lynched to throw dissent into the ranks.

Lottie's fake reveal points at Eonwe being Saruman, in my opinion - given the amount of pressure I put on him being lynched, she would have had to try something in order to attempt to elongate the game. Unfortunately, Lottie's blown it with her dreams. Let's take a look -

Firstly, Lottie claims not to have dreamt on Night 0. Isn't that convenient? (By the way, my Night 0 dream was Nerwen. Old habits die hard, I suppose. )

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.) In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

In any case, my other dreams were Night 1 Lommy, Night 2 Boro, and last night's Eonwe. Cue me being so very annoyed as one of my known innocents proceeded to lynch another.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Either way, we need to get whichever of Eonwe and Lottie is NOT Saruman today. I'm obviously a goner tonight (unless neither the Ranger nor the Wolves targeted me last night, which could be possible, considering I was being gunned for fairly hard), and so probably won't be around to ferret out the new wolf should we be wrong.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.)

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius.

Hesitant to save Steve? I voted the way I did purely for that reason! I didn't suspect Boro. I didn't have an opinion on Boro. But I knew Steve was innocent, and I knew Boro had a 1/5 chance (roughly, assuming Cop and Cabbie to be innocent) of being a sorcerer. Therefore, I thought he would be a better lynch than Steve...but that doesn't mean I felt at all okay with lynching someone even though I didn't actually suspect them.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve. Ah well, it all worked out in the end!

EDIT: xed with Shasta

[Nerwen]

Well, I think I’ll leave our two candidates to fight it out for a bit, while I go and examine their track records.

[Loslote]

Picking up Shasta's Saruman question.

It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first...after all, they knew the real Seer was still around, and chances were pretty good that I'd dreamt a wolf. They might have gone into this knowing it was suicidal and relying solely on the Saruman power. That'd be a bit riskier, though, and I'd guess that our Saruman is Greenie.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Shastanis Althreduin]

All well and good, but a question -

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1

How does one defend someone on Day 1 if they haven't dreamt them until Night 2, I wonder?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Sally, does Saruman show up as an ordinary sorcerer to the Aura Reader, or will they know if it's him?

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

All well and good, but a question -





How does one defend someone on Day 1 if they haven't dreamt them until Night 2, I wonder?

Nnn. I meant Day...what Day was yesterDay? Day 3? Sorry. Typo.

EDIT: xed with Our Beauteous Moddess

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nnn. I meant Day...what Day was yesterDay? Day 3? Sorry. Typo.

EDIT: xed with Our Beauteous Moddess

I see.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

This one, to be precise.

[Coppermirror]

I love this situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but now, we have either Shasta and Greenie sorcerers, or Eönwë and Lottie sorcerers.

All of the rest of us:
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lommy

should now be considered known innocents, I think. Unless something very interesting is going on.

I'm going to go and take a good look over things. We need to get Saruman toDay if we possibly can.

Originally Posted by Loslote

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

[Nerwen]

Day One

Lottie

#8. Banter. (In which you can perhaps read either Seer– or wolf- hints if you really want to, but I think it’s just banter.)


#32.
Feels “pretty good” about Coppermirror. Is “a bit shaky" on Greenie but “leaning innocent”. Legate and Greenie’s squabble seems innocent-on-innocent, though also possible from two “very bold” wolves. On the whole thinks them both innocent, but “with a question mark”. Lommy seems “a little less innocent, but nothing that shoves her into ‘terrifying sorcerer’ territory yet’. Has no read on Zil, Kath or me, and thus will be focussing on us. Mentions being busy that Day.

Comment: Although Lottie describes this post as “getting down to business”, she effectively says nothing much about any player apart from Cop, leaving it open to herself to suspect, or not suspect, anyone else at short notice. Well– it was very early in the Day, after all, and only her second post.


#71. [Replying to Kath at #54– the quote refer to Lottie’s comments on Legate and Greenie]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Oh, honey, I never commit to solid statements! I'm a philosophy major.

Seriously, though, this post just made me rather uneasy about her. A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers. It could just be Day-1 lack of proper suspicions and trying to get traction, but it doesn't sit well with me.

#88.
Replying to Coppermirror at #86.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think your reaction here is wonderfully innocent, and I'm pretty okay with your first Controversial Post. At this point, I'm fairly certain you won't kill me in my sleep.

Legate's reaction to the Cop Controversy is also interesting - he doesn't jump on it as further reasoning to vote you, which could speak well for his non-sorcererarity, but he's experienced and might be wary of jumping on a bandwagon - though if that's the case, he wound up voting for you anyway, so I'm leaning innocentish on him.

This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.


#89. Vote-post.

So we have a triple tie between Cop, Kath, and Legate, with no clarifying rules on tie-breakers? Well then.

++Kath

I find her far more suspicious than either Cop or Legate.

A somewhat fishy vote– somebody mentioned later that Lottie here seems relieved to have her choices narrowed down, and I tend to agree with that.

EDIT: And Lottie’s final post of the day was “That clears that right up”, with an eyeroll emoticon, in response to Holby’s re-creating the tie with her vote on Legate.


Shasta
#46. “Hi, I’m here” post. Also mentions being busy.

#84.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Argh. Something's come up and I'm not going to be able to spend the time I'd like reading what's happened today.

Moddess Sally, I abstain from voting today.

And that’s it from Shasta for Day One.

Conclusions: Ugh. Shasta is an enigma and Lottie is a conundrum. In the context of Day One only, her comments about Cop look distinctly Seer-ish– however, Lottie herself has said she *didn’t* dream Cop, or indeed anyone. Wolf laying ground for a false reveal, then? But in that case, why didn’t she stick with Cop as her first dream?

Perhaps later Days will provide answers.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

Nope. If I'd dreamed you, I would've been much more vocal in my support of you - if I recall correctly, when you revealed, I said something along the lines of "well, I guess we can trust her, for now, but don't get too comfortable."

EDIT: Xed with Nerwen

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.

I didn't think it would be a problem - I didn't think I'd been able to dream yet, and I assumed that was the general consensus.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I love this situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but now, we have either Shasta and Greenie sorcerers, or Eönwë and Lottie sorcerers.

All of the rest of us:
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lommy

should now be considered known innocents, I think. Unless something very interesting is going on.

I'm going to go and take a good look over things. We need to get Saruman toDay if we possibly can.

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.