WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

ACTUALLY WAIT

Wouldn't it make the most sense for the maniac to reveal RIGHT NOW?

Ta da, we have a known innocent. Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.

What say you?*

(* given the nature of the game, I should probably apologise for quoting movie!Aragorn)

It comes down to whether we value a known innocent over possibly having the Maniac take down a wolf. I can't say.


EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Leg and Lom.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It comes down to whether we value a known innocent over possibly having the Maniac take down a wolf. I can't say.

Exactly my thoughts as well.

The maniac is a powerful weapon I'd rather not lose - and would be inclined to suspect anyone who suggest us to lose her/his ability to kill a wolf. A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

Agreed, although a known innocent the wolves can't kill is a definite asset especially towards the end of the game and could be the tie-breaker.

Originally Posted by Legate

d) the WWs have to decide whether they want to "make a trade" of one of their members during Night-killing the Maniac, or just leave the known innocent (a powerful force) around. It also leaves the Ranger free to guard someone else, because the Maniac can in the worst case just "trade" him/herself. Sounds fair!

Unfortunately, I don't think the wolves would want to trade a wolf for a known innocent.


edit: xed with Sally and Nog

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The maniac is a powerful weapon I'd rather not lose - and would be inclined to suspect anyone who suggest us to lose her/his ability to kill a wolf. A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

I agree, although I also think it might be a simple matter of preference - play it safe but lose a potential advantage (Maniac reveals) or take a risk that might pay off or backfire (Maniac does not reveal). And while in this particular matter the "play it safe" -option would probably be the one the wolves would favour, it's also a valid opinion for an innocent, so I wouldn't be so quick to jump to suspecting Lommy either - especially as her NO WAIT -part looked pretty honest to me.

Okay, the above was written before Lommy's later post where she tells us to scratch her plan. That makes me think better of her. (Also - classic Lommy flip-flopping! <3)


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, Sally and Kit

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I didn't realize the game had started! Nobody poked me .

*poke* Does it help if I poke belatedly?

Legate, enlighten me if I'm being stupid but why would the Maniac revealing mean by default getting a wolf by Day 2? What if there is no counter-reveal nor a Night-kill of the known Maniac (which the wolves would be insane to do)?

I really need to get some sleep now (just when things are getting interesting, how typical). I don't feel comfortable voting anyone at this point given how little has happened, but I'd feel even less comfortable abstaining. The only thing that's caught my eye so far is nothing but a hunch, but here it is -

Originally Posted by Sally

That was informative, yet strangely unsettling.

Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really. Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing, so

++ Sally

Good night!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really.

Not that it particularly matters, but I said it was unsettling because Dun is a disembodied voice.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Legate, enlighten me if I'm being stupid but why would the Maniac revealing mean by default getting a wolf by Day 2? What if there is no counter-reveal nor a Night-kill of the known Maniac (which the wolves would be insane to do)?

Yeah, of course, that was all under the headline of responding to Kitanna - her line was "I don't know if this guarantees us a wolf lynch on Day 2 though. Say our Maniac reveals and is not believed and lynched." - so I was referring to that. Obviously, we otherwise get "only" a known innocent. Which, right - I am pondering that in my post just above this one - it's a question which is better. Might be that actually the tactical advantage of threatening the WWs during their Night-planning outweighs the advantage of known innocent. So maybe we should after all leave the subject alone. In any case, if not now, what I said certainly holds value for the future.

Now to think about who to vote, though, and all that...

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Might be that actually the tactical advantage of threatening the WWs during their Night-planning outweighs the advantage of known innocent. So maybe we should after all leave the subject alone. In any case, if not now, what I said certainly holds value for the future.

I do agree.

And also, there clearly is a limit when the revelation becomes obsolete aka we can no longer afford it.

BUt the biggest question I think is the one between whether to have a known innocent (that one becoming stornger and stronger asset every Day) or to keep up the threat and possibly kiil a wolf (chances getting betgter ev ery Night).

But yeah. I'm up to some other issues before going to sleep as well...

[Nogrod]

Before this discussion about the maniac really bursted out I was reading the first posts to see whether there was anythnig of note.

Well there wasn't anything you'd make a vote on with any confidence - or even to help you decide on a more or less "pray it goes well" choice...

But there is a thing I noticed I'd yet bring up as being better than nothing.

Now Lottie starts the Day with a kind of pre-emption underlining how she never gets through D1. Kitanna does more or less the same in her first post ("Woe is me!") - and Legate opens his Day by making an in character disclaimer that everyone knows how he hates the films.

All of those reports are true (I'm not sure how often Kit actually gets killed on D1 but I do have a feeling it has happened a couple of times) and they could be taken as just kind of sarcastic opening when there is little else to say - and with Legate as a justified IC-banter.

Nevertheless it caught my eye as none else made that kind of opening defences.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And also, there clearly is a limit when the revelation becomes obsolete aka we can no longer afford it.

BUt the biggest question I think is the one between whether to have a known innocent (that one becoming stornger and stronger asset every Day) or to keep up the threat and possibly kiil a wolf (chances getting betgter ev ery Night).

Yep, essentially, I think there would be some ideal "breaking point" when it would be a bit late for that. But of course again, depends on the situation - amount of remaining Wolves, Gifteds or even known innocents and so on.

But now I really am starting to feel sleepy and it's getting late... so... should vote. Problem is, not very many people actually said much of substance and those who did spoke mostly sensibly, so what to make of it? Blind shot is really NOT a good option here. Whereas I shared Greenie's concern about Sally - I had exactly the same gut feeling about that post, but the problem was that it was exactly only a gut feeling - that is not enough for me. I was even contempating about pulling a Nerwen (meaning, not voting), but then no - especially with such stakes and elements (Maniac...) that's giving too much power to other hands and, well, just irresponsible. Ah well. Hope I at least x-posted with something interesting. Otherwise I'll probably have to cast my vote for someone who out of those who posted little substance (about half the people) posted significantly less substance than what one would expect they could, or somesuch, if there would be such person...

EDIT: x-ed with Sally and Nogrod

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading.

[Nogrod]

Agreeing with Lommy & Greenie. I see revealing of the maniac a waste this early on, especially when a known innocent this early isn't such an asset - which it later in the game sure is! And all this talk of wolves counter-revealing this early... no way they would do that as it would be suicidal to them.

And also a secret maniac is a major threat to the wolves later in the game - whereas a know maniac is no threat at all to them during the Nights!


EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Coppermirror]

Summary/analysis part 2

This is going to be more hurried than the above part, unfortunately.

Greenie: comments on all the posts so far. It's unavoidably a little bantery but she also gives a limited analysis. The reasoning in #27 about how to catch someone "impersonating the Maniac" is confusing and I can't wrap my head around it. If anyone was trying to detract from the point about not wanting to lynch the Maniac, this looks the closest thing to it. But in #32 she makes a very clear and salient point about what the Maniac reveal issue comes down to, so on balance I think she wasn't trying to detract from it. Agrees with Nog about the advantages of the Maniac not revealing but also thinks it might come down to a matter of preference; very even-handed here. Thinks better of Lommy. Votes for Sally on a gut feeling.

Nothing stands out as suspicious in Greenie's posts, but she could easily be a wolf playing it safe. Her reasoning seems sound. The vote doesn't have a great basis but she gave her reasoning and there really wasn't much to go on.

Kath : Showed up briefly, but has basically been absent. This is bad. But I take it from things people have said that this is normal Kath behaviour, so I won't vote for her toDay based on this.

Boro: Banters. Brings up the Maniac, and that's the first non-bantery thing said up to that point. Doesn't post again until #63, where he comments on his speculation about the Maniac's allegiance before Inzil's clarification. Disagrees with the Maniac reveal plan. He likes Shasta, Nog and Greenie, is okay with Legate, and is troubled by Lommy. I can see his reasoning for the latter but I don't agree. He then votes for B]Lommy[/B].

It's hard to get a read on Boro, but he made an effort to get the discussion going at least. I won't vote for him toDay.

So in addition to my list above...
?????: Kath.
Neutral about: Greenie, Boro

I'm likely to vote for Legate soon.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen at #78 and all the posts after it.

[Coppermirror]

Vote count so far:

Greenie --> Sally(1)
Legate --> Boro(1)
Lommy --> Sally(2)
Nog --> Kitanna(1)
Boro --> Lommy(1)
Lottie --> Legate(1)
Cop--> Legate (2)

There's a tie between Sally and Legate.

Yet to vote: Kath, Nerwen, Sally, Shasta, Kitanna

[Nerwen]

Hmmn. I actually do find Legate questionable but Kitanna just a bit more so, for reasons I gave at #75.

So–

++Kitanna

*universe implodes*

EDIT:X’d with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

The universe only implodes if you format your vote correctly.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The universe only implodes if you format your vote correctly.

Now it’s imploded!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It comes down to whether we value a known innocent over possibly having the Maniac take down a wolf. I can't say.

Well that was so simply put that it twists my brain.

Arggh now that I'm thinking this further the game is (lovelily) frustratingly complex.

Because yes, it would be the best if the maniac is killed by the wolves.

But then again, how big are the chances that s/he gets targeted by the wolves? Like between 1/3 and 1/2. (Whereas a known innocent would be an immediate benefit, especially if it was accompanied by a known wolf.)

And now I wanted to say, scratch my plan, the maniac should just reveal if s/he's in danger of getting lynched, and suddenly I see where the concern about wolves pulling the maniac card is coming from.

Geez.

Well, scratch my plan anyway I guess, although in the end it's of course up to the maniac him/herself.

Werewolf is hard. Maybe I should shut up because I feel like flip-flopping is going to come out of my mouth (or keyboard) - if it already didn't.


edit: xed with Nogrod

[satansaloser2005]

Beg pardon. I just have to get this out of my system.

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly. We have zero control over who the maniac takes down, and while losing the maniac could also eliminate a wolf, it could also cost us our seer or our ranger (or, knowing my luck, me, which would be just as tragic ). Sure, we would have a known innocent and eliminate a bad lynch target, but the wolves may decide it's a good idea to target them straight away. Why would the baddies want to kick the bomb? Frankly, their odds of survival are better now.

The earlier the maniac is killed, the more likely their random target won't be a wolf (the wolves are 25% of the group right now, which will almost certainly grow as the game progresses). As the group gets smaller, killing the maniac becomes a bigger risk to the wolves, so if anything, I think exposing the maniac toDay would only lead to their death toNight, and I don't think that's a good idea.

I may have thought about this a little too much.


x'd since 29, as I was distracted by food

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Beg pardon. I just have to get this out of my system.

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly. We have zero control over who the maniac takes down, and while losing the maniac could also eliminate a wolf, it could also cost us our seer or our ranger (or, knowing my luck, me, which would be just as tragic ). Sure, we would have a known innocent and eliminate a bad lynch target, but the wolves may decide it's a good idea to target them straight away. Why would the baddies want to kick the bomb? Frankly, their odds of survival are better now.

The earlier the maniac is killed, the more likely their random target won't be a wolf (the wolves are 25% of the group right now, which will almost certainly grow as the game progresses). As the group gets smaller, killing the maniac becomes a bigger risk to the wolves, so if anything, I think exposing the maniac toDay would only lead to their death toNight, and I don't think that's a good idea.

I may have thought about this a little too much.


x'd since 29, as I was distracted by food

You should ignore all of this nonsense. I had it in my head that the maniac's ability was random regardless of when they were killed, but upon looking at the role again, I see I was mistaken. Whoops.

Well, ignore all of it but the link. That's still relevant.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Wait a second. I think either I am missing what you are all talking about here, or you are all absolutely off-track yourselves.

The way I see the idea with the Maniac revealing is this:

1. Maniac reveals. ("Hello. I am the Maniac.")
Two possibilities follow:

2. Nothing happens - fine. We have a known innocent.
2a. During the Night the WWs decide to kill the Maniac, which essentially means trading one of their own for a known innocent (since the Maniac always kills a Wolf during the Night).
2b. During the Night(s) the WWs pass Maniac by, ergo leaving an immortal known innocent.

3. Or there is a counter-reveal. Now we have a known pair out of which obviously one is a Wolf and other a Maniac.
3a. We lynch one of them straightaway.
3aa. We lynch the Wolf, everyone is happy and we have a known innocent.
3ab. We lynch the Maniac, we lose him and one more person, who may be 3aba. an ordo, 3abb. a Wolf, 3abc. a Gifted. Whereas 3abc. is the most awful thing that might happen, 3abb. might statistically have at least some chance of success (though of course it's all just pure chance anyway) since one would assume the WWs would rather be voting for lynching the Maniac, not for their packmate. That would also leave some interesting remaining voters to scrutinize AND in either case, we'd have a known Wolf - the other person who wasn't lynched!!!

3b. We don't lynch them, but we keep them both around until some more convenient time. Which simply might be a tactical tool to use later during the game, but might also create dangerous confusion by pulling too much attention to itself, causing controversy ("to lynch or not to lynch", "I want to lynch XY because they suggest lynching this one or that one of the two revealed 'Maniacs'" etc...), simply too much chaos. Personally I would be fond of 3a if it came to such decicion. But not to get ahead of ourselves...

...the bottom line being, I think if we want to do it, might be better to do it in a bigger village than in smaller village. So it might be good.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I didn't realize the game had started! Nobody poked me .

[Nogrod]

EDIT: REferring here to Legate's scenario about how the different maniac-revelation scenarios would go...

I was basically thinking more subtler things - and these early Days... No pompous revelations but a wolf leaving nice little hints some others (not probably most of the people) might get to say s/he's the maniac, and then those few would start defending her/him in case of someone esle suspecting her/him, based on them catching the hints and not willing to see her/him lynched.

There is lot of that going on in a Werewolf game: that you have your thoughts and interpretations who might be bluffing or hinting at something, but you're not willing to share your reasons 100% openly becasue the wolves might not have noticed it or something like that.


EDIT: X'd since Shasta

[Thinlómien]

Don't I love this discussion...

Legate, you are saying basically exactly the same as I am, but leaving out the same vital and obvious fact: that we can get a wolf through the maniac if we leave him/her alone, if s/he reveals, we can't count on getting a wolf. (But we do get an innocent.)

Originally Posted by Legate

3b. We don't lynch them, but we keep them both around until some more convenient time. Which simply might be a tactical tool to use later during the game, but might also create dangerous confusion by pulling too much attention to itself, causing controversy ("to lynch or not to lynch", "I want to lynch XY because they suggest lynching this one or that one of the two revealed 'Maniacs'" etc...), simply too much chaos. Personally I would be fond of 3a if it came to such decicion. But not to get ahead of ourselves...

...what?? We should definitely NOT do this.

Originally Posted by Legate

...the bottom line being, I think if we want to do it, might be better to do it in a bigger village than in smaller village. So it might be good.

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Also, if *I* was the maniac, I probably wouldn't reveal because being a known innocent is kind of boring.


edit: xed with everything after Legate's abc post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I honestly don't remember reading that. I must be blind. Scratch everything I said in my last post about that. Sorry.

Just for reference:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The Maniac is like a Hunter in that they are in with the village. Basically an Ordo with an added quantity of unpredictability surrounding their death.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

EDIT: REferring here to Legate's scenario about how the different maniac-revelation scenarios would go...

I was basically thinking more subtler things - and these early Days... No pompous revelations but a wolf leaving nice little hints some others (not probably most of the people) might get to say s/he's the maniac, and then those few would start defending her/him in case of someone esle suspecting her/him, based on them catching the hints and not willing to see her/him lynched.

There is lot of that going on in a Werewolf game: that you have your thoughts and interpretations who might be bluffing or hinting at something, but you're not willing to share your reasons 100% openly becasue the wolves might not have noticed it or something like that.

Well I was operating under the assumption that all this is relevant only in the case somebody comes out and says "I am the Maniac." Because that's really what this whole plan seemed to me to be about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Legate, you are saying basically exactly the same as I am, but leaving out the same vital and obvious fact: that we can get a wolf through the maniac if we leave him/her alone, if s/he reveals, we can't count on getting a wolf. (But we do get an innocent.)

Well it's up to the Wolves. A known innocent until the end is a tactical advantage, and the smaller the village, the bigger.

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Well that would be rather the main thing I'd be interested in discussing, what is actually worse, the Maniac revealing now or the Maniac revealing later? Situationally, it can be very deadly for the Wolves sometime later (e.g. if there's only one Wolf left, or even just two, simply the less WWs, the more powerful the Maniac gets), but of course it still gives the chance to the village to accidentally mislynch the Maniac. Yeah, in that case, and that'd be probably what was Inzil's idea about the role, it would create a "wild" element in the lynching and all. Leaving the Maniac unrevealed gives more chances to the WWs to pose as one. Upper side being, however, that anyway once one Maniac reveals, then if it's a fake reveal, there can be a counter-reveal. Well, it requires some thinking. It's true that tactically, the Maniac not being known also threatens WW's Night kills. Quite drastically, that's true.

Also, if *I* was the maniac, I probably wouldn't reveal because being a known innocent is kind of boring.

That I can understand as well.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Precisely, although not exactly for the reason I stated previously. If the time bomb keeps quiet, the wolves could stab them by mistake. If the maniac is out in the open, we have a known innocent, but the wolves know not to kill them at Night.

In short, we either get information now and the wolves have it too, or we stay in the dark and make the bad guys have to wolfy foot around on their Night kills. I personally prefer the latter.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly.

Help, can someone tell me who the penguin is?

- Am writing up analysis.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Help, can someone tell me who the penguin is?

- Am writing up analysis.

Lommy.

[Loslote]

Okay, I'm back - sorry I was so quiet today, I had a long day of moving.

First, I would not suggest the Maniac reveals themselves toDay. The potential to catch a wolf unawares at Night is, I think, more valuable than the potential to catch a suicidal wolf - which is what that wolf would have to be to counter-reveal at this point.

I found Greenie's vote more innocent than not - there really wasn't much to go on when she voted, and I can see where she got her gut feeling vote from (I don't share that gut feeling, but I can understand it). Lommy strikes me as seeming innocent, too, by virtue of her slight flip-flop over her plan - that could either be a wolf anxious to avoid committing to a potentially suspicious plan or an innocent genuinely concerned that her idea might not have been as helpful as it had been intended. I'd be less inclined to vote for either of them.

Legate, for no real reason, strikes me as a little suspicious. Nothing vote-worthy, but his overall tone comes across as a little too careful for my taste.

Add in Nog, who has seemed mostly fine so far, and you've got the bulk of the posters thus far. Not a whole lot to go on, so if someone would say something incriminating soon, that'd be appreciated!

EDIT: xed since Cop