WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Volo

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Edit: X'd Mac, Nog, Kit

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Well, I guess that's as good a theory as any. After all, there must have been something to catch the Bear's attention.

x/d with Rikae

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

Lommy was the first to remark on it, but G55 was a bit more talkative on the subject.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

What I meant was, I would as someone other than Mac. Assuming her concern about the hunter's role made her hunterish, and she didn't suspect any of them, killing her would have been a good bet.

[Rikae]

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

[Nogrod]

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Given the size of the village, maybe the victims were chosen because they had no connection with the villains. The Seer, in any case, should not be giving away anything on Day One.

In Post #91 Wilwa mentions: Skip, Lottie, Gil, Mac, Lommy, Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. The village would obviously assess what this could mean, because there could be something Seer-ish in Wilwa's notes - leaving the unmentioned in the shadows for an extra day. They would be:

Me (I suppose )
Eowne
Inzil
Enca
Green
Wyth
Mac
Cop
Nog
Volo
Sally

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by G55

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

Galadriel had this to say in response to Eomer.

Originally Posted by Enca

I think what Eomer is saying is that he would prefer that we start making accusations and see how everyone responds. You don't seem to like that. Are you invested in keeping the lions' identities a secret?

(Was that what more like you wanted, Eomer?)

Responds to Galadriel's aforementioned post. Seeing as Galadriel has been proven innocent Enca's response looks a bit odd and buddy-buddy with Eomer.

Originally Posted by Nog

And I'm not a fan of those who point their fingers in this kind of vague fashion just implying something while actually not even doing it (not to talk of actually laying a claim or making an open suspicion) - looks pretty lionish to me. And anyway, with an hour to go we need to get something going by way of making suspicions.

Then Nog says he suspects Galadriel based on her above rant.

Originally Posted by G55

wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.

Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects. I haven't have a read on Volo except for his friendly assassin remark and I've already said I find some of Mac's interactions noteworthy.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

++Skip

Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.

So because of Wilwa's vote her dream was probably one of the four she felt good about.

Originally Posted by Zil

I can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much, so it's

++skip

Easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting.

Originally Posted by Mac

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

Why feeling good about Eomer too? Because he is calling for people to list their suspects? Just curious since you only mentioned why you felt good about Galadriel.

Then Galadriel votes Mac.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.

Interesting her top two choices are dead. But that has happened to me as an innocent so I don't think there's much to read into it. Just interesting, like this is interesting

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

I actually need to do real work. So I'll be back in a few hours to pick up where I left off.

[Eönwë]

I think I missed this rather key quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

[Eönwë]

Day 2

Originally Posted by Inziladun

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

{Back on the "you're suspicious" track}

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Suspicious(-ish): Boro, Inzil, Wyth, Lommy, Volo, Eomer

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

{Still continuing the same thing}

Originally Posted by Macalaure

That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all.

[Eönwë]

And then Mac goes into full suspicion mode:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.

So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

You don't say.

Where?
Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion.
I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast.

I don't think this makes sense.


Defend yourself, sir!

Not particularly sure what he means by this:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

EDIT: I realize that Inzil doesn't go together with "the lions were probably comfortable". I'll look up "consistent" in the dictionary some time.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I read the results of the Day afterward. That's a pretty small thing for you to focus upon.

As for the "defense" of myself, I've pretty much said all I can to explain my vote for skip.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It really looks odd the way this Day started with "Mac could be the Bear/a Lion", and yet now the focus has been moved onto me.

I'm at the point now that I think knowing Mac's role could give some useful info.

++Mac

Originally Posted by Macalaure

++Inziladun

For reasons stated above.

(And a tiiiny bit of self-preservation.)

So, after Day 2, I'm not so sure. At the end, they turn on each other, but this is likely no matter what Zil's role is. Either an attempt at self-preservation for Mac, or distancing from each other if one of them gets killed and they're both lions. Or a bit of both (splitting the vote to try to maybe get someone else lynched?). Anyway, I wouldn't say Day 2 makes him any more suspicious, but I'd still put Zil in the "suspicious" category because he hasn't done anything that makes him seem more innocent (I still need to give yesterDay a thorough reread, so this may change).

[Eönwë]

On a side note, after going through Day 2, I wonder if there's more to Rikae and Zil's argument than meets the eye...

Anyway, back to rereading.

[WythDryden]

I'd like to believe Sally's innocence (or at least non-wolfness) from her post at #485. I admit I thought it was a little suspicious how sure she could be, especially after how many of the votes were cast already, and it's easy for a wolf to take that role. But to react that strongly after the fact AND be a wolf would be a very DIRTY tactic. I would be sure to remember something like that in any other game we played together.

And to agree with Eonwe about his suspicions with Zil/Mac. It felt like their rivalry was a little forced through all their interactions, and by day 2, they were both the most suspicious. At that point turning against each other is really the only move, because one way or the other one of them was going to be lynched. May as well make a last ditch effort to make yourself look good right? And if true, it was successful, as Zil managed to survive day 3. I keep waffling at this point on him. At the moment, I'm squinty-eyed though.

Edit: X/d Eonwe #508

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I'd like to believe Sally's innocence (or at least non-wolfness) from her post at #485. I admit I thought it was a little suspicious how sure she could be, especially after how many of the votes were cast already, and it's easy for a wolf to take that role. But to react that strongly after the fact AND be a wolf would be a very DIRTY tactic. I would be sure to remember something like that in any other game we played together.

I want to believe that Sally is sincere as well. I have no real reason to suspect her. But it did cross my mind that her reaction was a possible Lion tactic -- because who would think a Lion would threaten to leave? But then, as a couple of people mentioned, this is the time in the game where tensions run high.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I really don't know. I wouldn't put it past Nog to be such a bold lion, but voting for a packmate two Nights in a row at crucial moments is pretty extreme. The last few posts could go either way. I wouldn't put it past him to show that sort of regret (maybe?) at voting Mac as a way to make himself not look like a lion trying to look like a villager (i.e. being quiet because he knows the outcome and then rejoicing in the victory), and also set up the next Day's Kit kill. If he is a lion, he probably was genuinely frustrated that he was a major force in pushing Mac's death unnecessarily (no overwhelming rush of Mac votes from the remaining 4).

Overall, I'd say he seems less suspicious to me than when I started based on his Mac connections, but I wouldn't rule him out.

I'm not feeling very suspicious of Nogrod either. I seem to remember him being a very cunning Wolf way back in the day, so I wouldn't put anything past him either (nassty tricksy philosopher! ), but I feel like he's been sensible and reasonable throughout the game.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

Exactly. I'm sorry, but someone who isn't the Seer railing "why did you vote X when I told you not to?" rubs me the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You can't honestly say Kitanna didn't look suspicious yesterDay. If your confusion about the kills and your reaction to it didn't look so innocent, I'd be very inclined to point a finger at you and say "wolf playing the saint since didn't take part in an innocent lynch", but that I guess would be just knee-jerky suspicion. When I've misjudged something, I don't want it rubbed in my face by the likes of you, Eomer.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun.

Agreed totally.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So, after Day 2, I'm not so sure. At the end, they turn on each other, but this is likely no matter what Zil's role is. Either an attempt at self-preservation for Mac, or distancing from each other if one of them gets killed and they're both lions. Or a bit of both (splitting the vote to try to maybe get someone else lynched?). Anyway, I wouldn't say Day 2 makes him any more suspicious, but I'd still put Zil in the "suspicious" category because he hasn't done anything that makes him seem more innocent (I still need to give yesterDay a thorough reread, so this may change).[/I]

Well, all I can say about Mac I've said. I may have given him the opening to tie me to him in the event he was lynched, but I can't help that now.

x/d with Eönwë and Wyth